Current Events > New Majority Index suggests Kamala victories in play in NC and FL

(+) Yeah! (+)

They also accurately predicted Democratic support in 2022 when most media predicted a red wave. Their main point is that current polling is drastically undercounting minority support for Harris as they did for Obama.

https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/kamala-harris-florida-north-carolina/

While much of the mainstream media has recognized that the full 2020 set of states are currently competitive, what most still dont see is that Harriss candidacy has brought back into play not just the 2020 states but also the 2012 states. The levels of excitement and energy among voters of color now make nearly all of the states won by Obama newly winnable by Democrats.

This rapidly emerging reality is affirmed by the New Majority Index and the latest polling data. The Obama coalitionwhat I call in my books the New American Majorityconsists of the overwhelming majority of people of color aligning with a meaningful minority of white voters. The Democrats formula for victory involves combining the necessary proportions of support from the countrys respective racial groups.

Two dominant realities combine to illuminate the potential of Florida and North CarolinaHarriss current polling numbers among white voters and the lag in support from Black voters showing up in the polling data (that is, most polls are failing to capture the depth and breadth of Black voters support for Harris).

In Florida in 2012, Obama won the state with the support of just 37 percent of the states white voters. In North Carolina in 2008 (the year Obama won the state, before narrowly losing it in 2012), his white support was only 35 percent, according to the exit polls. The most recent polling data show Harris doing better among white voters than Obama did in Florida and North Carolina (39 percent in Florida and 37 percent in North Carolina, according to the latest polls).

In both states, despite increasing demographic diversity, white voters remain the largest sector of the electorate (59 percent of the eligible voters in Florida and 65 percent in North Carolina), so Harriss surpassing Obamas levels is extremely significant.

What makes the electoral map look particularly promising for Harris is the reality that polls are undercounting Harriss Black support. That is, there is a lag between what they currently show in terms of Black voter preferences and what her support is most likely to be.

This lag is most pronounced in the latest New York Times/Siena College poll which shows Harriss support among Black voters at just 75 percent. No Democratic nominee has ever received less than 83 percent of the Black vote, so its nonsensical to accept a number like 75 percent as accurate of what Harriss ultimate 2024 numbers will be. The qualitative and quantitative tea leaves all suggest that Harris will win more than 90 percent of the Black vote. According to Pew Researchs rigorous statistical analysis, the Biden/Harris 2020 ticket received 92 percent percent of the Black vote. In the prior historical analog, Obama received 93 percent of the Black vote nationally, winning 95 percent of Black voters support in Florida and North Carolina.

If Harriss support among Black voters continues to consolidate as it has over the past two months, then she stands a very strong chance of winning both states. In Florida, the critical constituency will be Latinos, and she needs to secure 60 percent of that communitys votes to prevail. The latest polls show just 50 percent of Latinos backing Harris, but that number is likely low and lagging, as the September Pew survey shows that, nationally, 57 percent of Latinos back Harris.

In North Carolina, YouGovs August poll shows Harris meeting the Obama threshold of white support, but the number for Black voters is clearly incorrect at 75 percent. If the 37 percent of white voters support holds, and the percentage of Black voters moves to the Obama level of 95 percent, then she will win that state. To be sure, in those statesand, indeed all states with large numbers of people of colora major challenge will be overcoming the widespread voter-suppression measures that have proliferated in recent years.

While I would love to see Florida flip I doubt it.

North Carolina I can see.
Florida sounds like a pipe dream. But, I would laugh if Harris wins.

Cynrascal posted...

North Carolina I can see.
Florida sounds like a pipe dream. But, I would laugh if Harris wins.

I want Florida to be in play enough to make Republicans sweat

She ain't winning FL brah

It would be amazing if she won Florida, especially since it would send Trump even further down his downward spiral if she did so, but Im not getting my hopes up for that happening.

I could see her winning NC though.

this article doesnt mention sexism as a reason why her support may be below Obamas

I think there are some big assumptions being made here.

I don't see her flipping Florida and I believed originally she was going to flip North Carolina but after the issues with the ballots being destroyed I don't see it anymore

if harris were to win ohio florida and texas, the planet would explode and than i would wake up from my obvious dreamare

My right nut for Harris to win Florida

Florida is a huge doubt but wouldn't losing Florida be the death knell on Trumps political campaign for good? Because good if it does happen.

GhostFaceLeaks posted...

Florida is a huge doubt but wouldn't losing Florida be the death knell on Trumps political campaign for good? Because good if it does happen.

Oh he'd definitely use it as exhibit number one for 'proof' that it was rigged

Azn_Psycho posted...

I want Florida to be in play enough to make Republicans sweat

Me too. Plus they don't have as much money so anything that draws their resources away from swing states is a plus.

Takuya_Lee posted...

Me too. Plus they don't have as much money so anything that draws their resources away from swing states is a plus.

This is a good point I guess Donald Trump and his shitty fucking children shouldnt have siphoned all the money away from the RNC

Florida isn't flipping any more than Ted Cruz is losing his Senate bid.

If Florida flipped there would be 100 court cases disputing it and this election would drag on for months

Euripides posted...

If Florida flipped there would be 100 court cases disputing it and this election would drag on for months

If it wasn't wrapped up by the date certification happens, Florida wouldn't count

ClayGuida posted...

Florida isn't flipping any more than Ted Cruz is losing his Senate bid.

Again it doesn't even need to flip. People just need to think it's possible for the reason I mentioned before.

Clinton lost to Trump in FL by about 100,000 votes. The margin vs Biden did widen to 400,000, but it seems to me like Florida could actually be in play because Trump is running a dumpster fire of a campaign.

We will see, though. It seems like a lot of Florida is okay with being ran by a dictator locally and nationally.

Not getting my hopes up for Florida again unless Kamala is literally polling 10 points ahead. NC is a possibility, though they've often disappointed as well.

ClayGuida posted...

Florida isn't flipping any more than Ted Cruz is losing his Senate bid.

Abortion is on the ballot in Florida. It's not the same situation.

How funny would it be if Republican ratfucking swings GA back red, but they lose FL and NC in return

FunWithAFryPan posted...

How funny would it be if Republican ratfucking swings GA back red, but they lose FL and NC in return

Only this election. Ossof's seat is up in 2026 so GA needs to be blue again at that time.

FunWithAFryPan posted...

How funny would it be if Republican ratfucking swings GA back red, but they lose FL and NC in return

Well that was basically 2008

Tyranthraxus posted...

Abortion is on the ballot in Florida. It's not the same situation.

This is a good point. Polling shows around 60% of Florida's are in support of the abortion amendment to protect abortion in the Constitution. Even among Hispanics they support the ballot measure around 60%.

The question is whether votes in support of abortion translate to votes for Harris. Florida has been known to vote left on policies but vote right on candidates. They did vote in a $15 minimum wage but still voted for DeSantis.

Zanzenburger posted...

The question is whether votes in support of abortion translate to votes for Harris. Florida has been known to vote left on policies but vote right on candidates. They did vote in a $15 minimum wage but still voted for DeSantis.

Florida Dems are more limp dicked than TX Dems or like the CA GOP

remember when hilary was absolutely going to win

Harris winning Florida would probably just be running up the score. She would probably already have way more than enough EC votes if she wins Florida.

Democrats should not just brush off Florida and Texas though because they are the most likely Senate seats to flip from Republican to Democrat (although that's still a long shot)

YellowSUV posted...

Harris winning Florida would probably just be running up the score. She would probably already have way more than enough EC votes if she wins Florida.

If she wins Florida we can go to bed early

Tyranthraxus posted...

Abortion is on the ballot in Florida. It's not the same situation.

Marijuana is too. Hopefully a lot of young people come out.

Couple things:

-If Kamala literally wins Trump's home state that would just be outright hilarious on so many levels

-We as a country should collectively make a huge thank you gesture to the people of color of the country for saving us from Donald Trump, because these polls make it apparent that if only white people were allowed to vote, we'd be a Handmaid's Tale-level hellscape

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

Trump claims Florida nowadays more so than NY

A lot is being constructed to prevent these voters from reaching the polls.

An American voting tradition ---

Roadblocks
Voting machines that do not work
Places of work that refuse to give time off
list goes on

Supporting everyone's right to vote is needed to make this victory possible.

Instead of the birth certificate law we need a national holiday law.

Zanzenburger posted...

They also accurately predicted Democratic support in 2022 when most media predicted a red wave.

That was biased media. Credible pollsters indicated a modest Republican victory.

Trump overperformed his polling in both 2016 and 2020, reddish states like FL and NC are probably not actually in play regardless of decisive Harris victories in purple states.

ClayGuida posted...

Florida isn't flipping any more than Ted Cruz is losing his Senate bid.

Cruz is like the most disliked Senator in the nation, as an incumbent retained his seat by 2.7% against O'rourke, Chris LaCavita, one of Trump's campaign managers, has asked "what the hell is happening with the Cruz campaign?", polling has been showing Allred doing quite well with many recent articles talking about increased chances, and the enthusiasm for Harris could just be what drives out higher turnout and pushes Allred over the edge.

There's a lot of factors at play.

Two people have tried to kill Trump in the past 2 months and nobody is talking about it or even gives a shit.

I think that alone speaks volumes about how despised the dude is.

Diceheist posted...

That was biased media. Credible pollsters indicated a modest Republican victory.

Trump overperformed his polling in both 2016 and 2020, reddish states like FL and NC are probably not actually in play regardless of decisive Harris victories in purple states.

And Democrats have been consistently overperforming polling since 2020.

chris1001_the_sequel posted...

And Democrats have been consistently overperforming polling since 2020.

Other Republicans are not Trump. Dems overperformed in 2018 but that didn't manifest into a similar overperformance in 2020. There are simply a chunk of conservatives/independents who'll vote if he's on the ticket but screw off otherwise.

Does she have a better chance than Biden in 2016?

Arcanine2009 posted...

Does she have a better chance than Biden in 2016?

Biden did terribly in 2016. Didn't win a single state

Diceheist posted...

Other Republicans are not Trump. Dems overperformed in 2018 but that didn't manifest into a similar overperformance in 2020. There are simply a chunk of conservatives/independents who'll vote if he's on the ticket but screw off otherwise.

If they're swayed by his presence, why wouldn't they be swayed to vote for who he champions?

I'm not brash enough to expect Kamala to win Florida.

However some of the situations in which Dems outperformed or won were in deep red territories where it should have been a GOP landslide. Smaller elections sure, but it does seem to indicate Democratic interest, fervor, and momentum.

There are also other things to consider going on in Florida, like how a lot of MAGA/Moms For Liberty school board (incumbent) candidates got BTFO recently in school board elections.

While that is its own subset issue, it does appear to indicate that there are a lot of people who are tired of Trump and his cronies bullshit.

You also have to consider that some previously Trump swayed voters may simply stay home this year, simply due to the fact he is clearly not the same man he was, even 4 years ago. And that's before you account for the amount may have died due to Covid, even after he left office. It isn't like people magically stopped dying of it after November 2020.

Again, I'd never bet on Kamala winning Florida, however if she does it isn't exactly unexpected.

Kradek posted...

Cruz is like the most disliked Senator in the nation, as an incumbent retained his seat by 2.7% against O'rourke, Chris LaCavita, one of Trump's campaign managers, has asked "what the hell is happening with the Cruz campaign?", polling has been showing Allred doing quite well with many recent articles talking about increased chances, and the enthusiasm for Harris could just be what drives out higher turnout and pushes Allred over the edge.

There's a lot of factors at play.

A poll recently had Cruz down 1. He's going to win by 200k votes minimum.

Enthusiasm is fine, but having silly expectations is another. Harris has tons of support and tons of enthusiasm. Doesn't mean she's winning South Carolina.

ClayGuida posted...

A poll recently had Cruz down 1. He's going to win by 200k votes minimum.

Enthusiasm is fine, but having silly expectations is another. Harris has tons of support and tons of enthusiasm. Doesn't mean she's winning South Carolina.

South Carolina goes blue this year, I'm checking to make sure I still exist

wackyteen posted...

South Carolina goes blue this year, I'm checking to make sure I still exist

That's my point. There were people being silly about Biden winning Texas in 2020 too. Why raise expectations so high that no matter what, it'll always be a disappointment.

ClayGuida posted...

A poll recently had Cruz down 1. He's going to win by 200k votes minimum.

He only won by 215k against O'Rourke with a 2.6% victory.

That was before he abandoned this state during an ice storm to run to Cancun and his reputation/likeability only goes down over time. I don't think Allred would have had a chance if Biden were still the candidate, however I could see it under Harris.

ClayGuida posted...

Enthusiasm is fine, but having silly expectations is another. Harris has tons of support and tons of enthusiasm. Doesn't mean she's winning South Carolina.

Is South Carolina even in play with any candidates similar to TX her presence could affect? Or are you just throwing out an irrelevant state cause you're a hater on the odds TX ever improves or gets better?

Yes, TX and FL both suck because of the Republican Party, all we can do is remain optimistic and keep showing up in the hopes that at some point it makes a difference. I don't think it's the year TX votes blue on a Pres, however I could see Cruz getting ousted and I'm optimistic for FL.

I'm just saying don't expect much from Texas or Florida.

Rick Scott for instance has won two governor races and his senate race by a combined 135k votes. That doesn't mean his race will be even remotely close this year. And Scott is as reviled in Florida as Cruz is in Texas. The problem is, there's millions more Republican voters than Democratic.

ClayGuida posted...

I'm just saying don't expect much from Texas or Florida.

Rick Scott for instance has won two governor races and his senate race by a combined 135k votes. That doesn't mean his race will be even remotely close this year. And Scott is as reviled in Florida as Cruz is in Texas. The problem is, there's millions more Republican voters than Democratic.

A lot of that in Florida is due to the FL Democratic party being about as impotent as a 100 year eunuch