Current Events > Predictions for US election results

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Here is my prediction:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/e331e61d.jpg

Some notes:

Florida votes more Trump than expected and these early results really panic everyone. So many Trump cultists have moved to Florida that it results in the biggest margin of victory Republicans in a long time.

Harris barely wins North Carolina in part because of the really terrible governor candidate Republicans are running.

Harris wins the rust belt states because abortion seems to be a bigger issue there compared to the rest of the country. Trump gets a lot of the Muslim vote compared to the past in Michigan, but it doesn't really matter because of the larger than expected amount of women voting for Harris.

Trump barely wins Georgia in part because of voter suppression and Republican scheming.

Trump barely wins Nevada. Somehow Nevada elected a Republican governor in 2022. Not sure why, but it seems that state is trending that way.

Harris barely wins Arizona in part because of how incompetent the Arizona Republican party is.

In general Trump does get more votes than expected from young men of all races because of his perceived machismo and the decline in men's economic power over time. This is countered by women in general voting more for Harris because of Trump's threat to eroding abortion rights even further.

Old people in general also slightly vote more for Harris than expected. This is in part because they can actually remember the threat of fascism being drilled into their heads (or remember it first hand if they are old enough to have lived through WWII). January 6th seems to have effected older people in general more than younger people.

Old Trump voters also were more likely to die to Covid because they in general didn't take precautions against it. So you simply have a disproportionate amount of 2020 Trump voters now dead compared to 2020 Biden voters.

Republican take back the Senate because Democrats lose spots in West Virginia and Montana. Ted Cruz almost loses his spot but he doesn't.

Democrats take back the House.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Show your work

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/2ceca268.jpg
source: it was revealed to me in a dream

I see it all boiling down to who wins MI and PA

I'm too lazy to type out a detailed prediction but I largely think Harris wins by a more comfortable margin than Biden did. I have felt this way for awhile for various reasons. I just don't think Trump has the support he did even in 2020, and he lost then.

FL81 posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/2/2ceca268.jpg
source: it was revealed to me in a dream

I see it all boiling down to who wins MI and PA

I just did this and got the exact same results.

I dont think thats too far off. Trump is going to prioritize squashing his criminal charges if he wins and we need a president who focuses 100% on our population and environment.

According to a CNN analysis, there's a 60% chance that EITHER candidate could get to 300 EV's

We can hope.

CNN has basically zero credibility left. Id even listen to ABC News more currently.

Not posting a map or anything but I'll just say I think Harris is being underrated in Arizona.

Seems like the popular opinion is that this is her weakest swing state. But they have Kari Lake on the ballot who nobody likes, they have an abortion referendum, and they have been voting blue since 2018. Those seem like pretty good ingredients for a win.

I'm not buying the polls, the same polls who said Blake Masters was supposed to beat Mark Kelly.

FL81 posted...

I see it all boiling down to who wins MI and PA

There's a few other key factors here. Georgia is a must win for Trump but not a must win for Harris. While it leans Republican, the last two elections have had a really strong Democrat turnout. The Georgia supreme Court shot down every single voter suppression bullshit the Republicans have tried this year so far so really the state is 50/50.

Turtlemayor333 posted...

Not posting a map or anything but I'll just say I think Harris is being underrated in Arizona.

Seems like the popular opinion is that this is her weakest swing state. But they have Kari Lake on the ballot who nobody likes, they have an abortion referendum, and they have been voting blue since 2018. Those seem like pretty good ingredients for a win.

I'm not buying the polls, the same polls who said Blake Masters was supposed to beat Mark Kelly.

It's kind of incredible how much of a boon Kari Lake has been for the AZ Democratic Party

Why is Florida worth 30 btw?

It'll come down to Wisconsin and I really don't know after that

https://www.270towin.com/maps/k1QVp

Kanaya413 posted...

Why is Florida worth 30 btw?

Based on census data from 2020.

YellowSUV posted...

Ted Cruz almost loses his spot but he doesn't.

And it will 100 percent be because of Greg Abbot and Ken Paxton trashing votes again since they faced absolutely repercussions for doing it and bragging about it last time, Paxton even beat his own corruption charges from his own party because of other corrupt republicans including his wife. Texas will never turn blue as long as Republicans are able to just disappear democratic votes and texas kids are taught that democrats are baby killers, gun grabbers and that hate them.

bump

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/b/b316c58f.jpg

I expect a runoff

GameEchizen

YellowSUV posted...

Florida votes more Trump than expected and these early results really panic everyone. So many Trump cultists have moved to Florida that it results in the biggest margin of victory Republicans in a long time.

Abortion is on the ballot alongside the presidency in Florida. I don't think it's going to be a landslide in Trump's favor for that alone.

Turtlemayor333 posted...

I'm not buying the polls, the same polls who said Blake Masters was supposed to beat Mark Kelly.

The polls saying that were Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage which are known GOP garbage.