Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic Episode 446: The Empire Strikes Back

(+) Yeah! (+)

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/nathanjrobinson/status/1854603407237300660?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

I mean that was essentially trumps campaigns

I am pages behind oops

Kinglicious posted...

Generally they'll still be supportive of trans rights and that you can live how you want to, however spaces that are specifically female, not just "women" but explicitly female, need to be respected more and we've gone too far.

lmfao

Trump announced he will direct Congress to pass a federal law essentially banning trans people, by requiring the government to only recognize biological sex.

Fuck this shit hole country.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Trump announced he will direct Congress to pass a federal law essentially banning trans people, by requiring the government to only recognize biological sex.

Fuck this shit hole country.

This is just the beginning. Concentration camps for minorities and trans are a real legit probability.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Trump announced he will direct Congress to pass a federal law essentially banning trans people, by requiring the government to only recognize biological sex.

Fuck this shit hole country.

I haven't been following super closely lately. Is this new news or something he said during his campaign?

pyresword posted...

I haven't been following super closely lately. Is this new news or something he said during his campaign?

His mouthpieces on Twitter are saying he announced it as a Day 1 priority. I didnt search for a source because its something we know hes said before.

Wanglicious posted...

hm, what character would trump be now? somebody who people kept saying was weak but over time proved that not only did he have strength but he actually was gaining over the years.

Pikachu?

Can't make orange without yellow.

*rolls eyes in topic and moves on*

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Trump announced he will direct Congress to pass a federal law essentially banning trans people, by requiring the government to only recognize biological sex.

Fuck this shit hole country.

He did, in 2023.

I figure this is still probably his intent but there is nothing new on this front. They are just recirculating an old video from 2023 as if it is new.

Probably to test the waters.

To the best of my knowledge Trump hasn't made any public, be it social media or otherwise, statements or appearances since his victory speech.

he can order the government to ignore who we are but he can't change it. fuck that and fuck him.

When you ask the transphobes to define biological sex you always get a hundred different answers because A) there isnt really one answer that excludes all trans people and includes all cis people and B) as someone with a PhD in Biology let me tell you, definitions in biology are inherently woolly and ill defined. They just want it to mean not trans. Of course Im sure in such a case the courts will select a definition that hurts the maximum amount of people possible.

even though it would be the worst most privacy destroying way to do it, a sick little part of me wants them to do it based on genetic testing just so we can see transphobes who aren't perfectly xx or xy have a melty over it

ivysnow posted...

even though it would be the worst most privacy destroying way to do it, a sick little part of me wants them to do it based on genetic testing just so we can see transphobes who aren't perfectly xx or xy have a melty over it

Such people also go but exceptions are only a tiny minority! while also ignoring that trans people are roughly 0.5% of the population.

Kinglicious posted...

They know why. They don't want to say it because they don't want to make it loud but the "she's for they/them not you" ads hit particularly hard culturally and, for lesbians, personally. There's a nuance to it: they know that if they were told growing up "you're actually a man," they may have believed it. They've seen dating apps, including those for lesbians, increasingly have males as the majority and when they voice their complaints get told they're a bigot. Lesbian bars are borderline extinct and more queer bars now, which isn't what people went for. Generally they'll still be supportive of trans rights and that you can live how you want to, however spaces that are specifically female, not just "women" but explicitly female, need to be respected more and we've gone too far.

But voicing any of that gets them called a turf, a transphobe, etc so they'll just do it quietly. If they aren't telling you it's because they aren't comfortable enough to tell you.

Reminder to anyone reading this and believing it uncritically that cis lesbians are like the single group most likely to support trans women and trans people in general. The exceptions are super loud and annoying but they're exceptions (and on the internet, a lot of them are just lying, just like a lot of the "blacks for Trump" on Twitter that are actually white dudes).

Also the death of lesbian bars (and gay bars in general) has nothing to do with trans people lmao, you could not possibly be more uninformed about this part specifically.

Kenri posted...

Also the death of lesbian bars (and gay bars in general) has nothing to do with trans people lmao, you could not possibly be more uninformed about this part specifically.

Everyone knows its because there are no fire exits.

LightningStrikes posted...

Everyone knows its because there are no fire exits.

What's her problem?

Anyone who has any problem with Trans people is a laughing stock in lgbtq+ circles and for good reason.

I actually know a few "conservative lesbians" in that sort of vein. They aren't super loud about any anti-trans stuff though, but I'm fairly sure they were Trump voters all the same.

I think an important thing to remember is the right has always been at the forefront of the "isms". As time passes and it gets more and more difficult to gain enough support for your old ism, you move on to one that will get more people thinking it's okay to hate those people. Unfortunately, that's where we are with the Trans community right now. It's a shame that other groups of people that have been the victims and targets of this same group's hate in the past can't see it, and that if they could get away with it more easily, those people would be getting all the vile treatment you see for the trans folk.

v_charon posted...

I actually know a few "conservative lesbians" in that sort of vein. They aren't super loud about any anti-trans stuff though, but I'm fairly sure they were Trump voters all the same.

I mean eventually the rightwingers will realise that there are a lot of LGBT people that are actually pretty conservative/right leaning, especially economically, and they can get their votes if they stop persecuting them. But I think this is still a long way away, especially in countries with a strong religious right.

tbqh after a night of just feeling sick, I've progressed to the "numb" phase of reactions here.

Probably going to participate less in this thread for a while while I sort all that out but just some quick thoughts:

This was probably an unwinnable election for Dems. I think the bad vibes about the economy and inflation were too strong to overcome. There's actually some evidence that the Harris campaign actually put up a relatively good fight in the swing states. The numbers may have changed a bit from when I last saw them like two days ago - but in the 7 swing states the shift right was something like 3 points. In the rest of the country it was more like 6. I think you can point to that and say that that Harris campaign was making (again, relative) progress in the swing states which is where the campaigns were facing off primarily but the challenge was so tough that even managing to perform 3 whole points better in the swing states the landscape was so bad they're still going to end up getting swept there.

I do think the Harris campaign talked about the economy. I don't know what ads the rest of you got, but most of the ones from her I saw where about the economy. You can argue it was more abstract in the sense that it was largely "Trump is for the rich, Kamala is for the middle class" but honestly I think all political campaigns are pretty abstract on that point. Downballot races like House races is where I saw the focus on abortion, not the Harris campaign and PACs. I do think Kamala saying she wouldn't have a significant shift from Biden's policies was a misstep but like I don't think that was what sunk her - though it certainly didn't help. If the Trump anti-trans ads were effective I think that can only really be read as an indictment on the American people though. As for how to fight back against that shit, I think ignoring it - which was basically what Harris did - was a mistake given hindsight. I don't know what the best way to fight back against it would be - maybe calling out the lies in it before pivoting back to the economy? Something like "Trump says you send your third-grader to school and they come back a different gender. Come on now, have YOU ever seen that? They're just trying to distract you from his plans that would raise the price of groceries for ALL Americans etc, etc." idk.

I do think this election shows that the outreach to Never Trumpers was an absolute waste though. Unless the exits are just totally bogus then Trump basically retained all Republican support so there was no defection from Never Trumpers/Haley voters/etc.

Harris seems to have reached Biden's 2020 vote totals in most (all?) of the swing states so I don't think this was turnout either. Trump simply increased his totals in those states from 2020 even more. Again, I think this is the economy/inflation/anti-incumbent headwinds simply being too strong.

Where the Dems go from here I don't know. Well, I suspect they'll move right but I think that's a mistake. I think they can regroup and try a Bernie-ish populist style on economics and they absolutely should not abandon the trans community - like if we're not fighting to stand up for and protect vulnerable communities then what are we even fucking doing? Immigration though I think things have shifted so far to the right that it may be lost and that's a fucking tragedy (and bad policy.)

LightningStrikes posted...

I mean eventually the rightwingers will realise that there are a lot of LGBT people that are actually pretty conservative/right leaning, especially economically, and they can get their votes if they stop persecuting them. But I think this is still a long way away, especially in countries with a strong religious right.

But it's a farce that the GOP is economically conservative. This country's right wing conservative party is virtually only conservative in terms of "societal norms".

Thorn posted...

I do think this election shows that the outreach to Never Trumpers was an absolute waste though. Unless the exits are just totally bogus then Trump basically retained all Republican support so there was no defection from Never Trumpers/Haley voters/etc.

I dont think the concept of a "never trumper" exists among the populace. I think those people were already not Trumpers. There are a small population of elites that are never Trumpers but they mostly are just angry they lost control of their base.

Wanglicious posted...

hm, what character would trump be now? somebody who people kept saying was weak but over time proved that not only did he have strength but he actually was gaining over the years.

Snake. Despite ALL the signs pointing to Snake > Sephiroth happening in 2010, not just during that contest but in the years that preceded it, Seph was still favored almost 2:1 in Oracle. I picked it pre-contest and never looked back.

v_charon posted...

I actually know a few "conservative lesbians" in that sort of vein. They aren't super loud about any anti-trans stuff though, but I'm fairly sure they were Trump voters all the same.

Yeah there are certainly conservative lesbians for lots of different reasons. Some are transphobes, some want to hang on to generational wealth, some are plain old racists, etc. Conservatism exists in every demographic, but you're not going to find many demographics that are less conservative on average than lesbians.

What really gets me is that Kamala made a great choice in VP, and was punished for it essentially and the dems will take that as a message to not give in to the base again.

Dancedreamer posted...

What really gets me is that Kamala made a great choice in VP, and was punished for it essentially and the dems will take that as a message to not give in to the base again.

Oh we are absolutely going to get the worst messages taken from this election.

I feel like we won't get a VP pick as good as Walz for the rest of our lifetimes. They will pick someone from Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin from now until the end of time.

Blaziken posted...

You can understand how that's confusing though, right?

It's really not unless you expect to win every election, which is something that is never promised by democracy, and the US system is specifically opposed to. Democrats are the only ones that operate like they will never lose again, for some reason.

As bad as the 2 party system is, it does create this effect where when things are bad, you just vote for "the other guy" without thinking. Circumstance defeats all brand loyalty.

foolm0r0n posted...

As bad as the 2 party system is, it does create this effect where when things are bad, you just vote for "the other guy" without thinking.

Untrue -- sometimes you give George W Bush a second term instead.

I am trans so if it was trans issues with them Id be super disappointed but I guess I already am. Tim Walz would have made an awesome vice president.

walz/aoc in 2028 let's do it

destroy all clintonites

Kenri posted...

Untrue -- sometimes you give George W Bush a second term instead.

War is different, you just keep voting the current guy no matter what

I think it's fair to give foolmo a shot on this one, Kelly would be a good pick for 2028. Especially as space becomes more important over the next 4 years.

And Kari Lake gets an ever bigger L of her career(?) by yet again not becoming the governor of a barely red state when her old fat boss won(?) big(?).

It's so funny she kept losing against different candidates, and this time, she lost to a Latino.

Who Democrats put up in 2028 depends on what happens before then. I don't think it's terribly useful to speculate now, considering we could easily have someone lesser-known rise to prominence in the next four years the way Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did.

I agree this election was basically unwinnable. I like to put it that Trump is getting a second non-consecutive term because Biden did such a good job cleaning up his mess people forgot Trump even made such a big mess!

Anyway, the thing is as far as I can tell Trump is going to win the electoral college by a bigger margin than Biden did over him in 2020, but his popular vote lead is going to be lower. So either there has been a DRASTIC shift in population distribution across the country in a span of only four years (which is actually fairly plausible based on mortality figures counted by the CDC), or Harris is the rightful winner of the election and lots of votes haven't been counted (which I could also buy based on some reports).

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Who Democrats put up in 2028 depends on what happens before then. I don't think it's terribly useful to speculate now, considering we could easily have someone lesser-known rise to prominence in the next four years the way Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did.

I agree this election was basically unwinnable. I like to put it that Trump is getting a second non-consecutive term because Biden did such a good job cleaning up his mess people forgot Trump even made such a big mess!

Based LMS post.

100% correct, people need to hold their horses.

Also I personally dont think were in for the next coming of Nazi Germany. I am actually LEAST concerned about social progress during a second Trump term and far more about the legal and economic situation. For anyone who has seen RoboCop, I think that dystopian future is more akin to what were in for.

The US is in for bigger Hungary and theyve all been pretty up front about that. Hungary is basically their model. But Hungary itself may if were lucky be coming out of that period now.

This won't actually happen, but If Trump removes term limits, I vote Democrats run Obama/AOC.

UberPyro64 posted...

This won't actually happen, but If Trump removes term limits, I vote Democrats run Obama/AOC.

Obamas a has-been Boomer politician, he couldnt have won this. Even FDR probably couldnt have.

Imo Obama would wipe the floor with any Republican running even if Trump ran again

I dunno, I genuinely think Trump has been appropriated as an anti-Obama figure twice over. Based on exit polls, it honestly feels like the Obama era of politics is firmly over.

I think Trump probably beats Obama this year. He does better than Kamala, but at no point during his presidency was the economy strong (he started off with being handed the worst economy since the 1930s and it was a long climb from there).

Bill Clinton possibly could win this year. The less Hillary campaigns for him, the better his chances would be.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

I dunno, I genuinely think Trump has been appropriated as an anti-Obama figure twice over. Based on exit polls, it honestly feels like the Obama era of politics is firmly over.

Dont discount general popularity. Obama is liked.

I feel Trump the person is just famous and popular with certain people. Look at the evidence in swing states where other Republicans lost.

https://www.newsweek.com/barack-obama-popularity-poll-results-president-1961845

Obama would win comfortably.

Obama crushes Trump are you kidding me