Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic Episode 446: The Empire Strikes Back

(+) Yeah! (+)

LightningStrikes posted...

Shapiro wins Pennsylvania and loses Michigan, meaning the election is still lost.

Even if Shapiro won Pennsylvania and won Michigan, the election would still be a loss.

I really don't see any different decision that could be made that would lead to victory.

Grimlyn posted...

I don't like saying "can't be any worse than..."

but like... they're much more prepared and vindictive this time around so I'm much more fearful for the state of 2028 than the alt 2024

Yeah the thing that brings me over to this viewpoint is that Trump is going to do almost everything he would have done following 2020 anyway, but worse, and with fewer people around who would stop him. Yeah 2020 was the wrong election to win.

https://twitter.com/nathanjrobinson/status/1854603407237300660?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

LightningStrikes posted...

The only question is what state would the US, US democracy, and the world be in in that alternate 2024.

Having said that yeah if things arent completely screwed up if Trump wins in 2020 Democrats win in 2024. Whoever was the opposition was going to win. This is a global pattern. Just like 2008.

The stupid thing is I figured the first time Trump won an election it was a case of "both these candidates suck, nothing much has changed during Obama's presidency, it won't matter", and that Trump would lose this time because now people very much know it matters. So much for that.

foolm0r0n posted...

That's what I explained a while ago.

BUT I do think there's a valid chance that these 4 years are still disastrous for Trump, he gets defeated hard in 2026, and everyone is done with him by 2028. In that case, it's very very good that we had the economic recovery in between his 2 terms. Economics are exponential, so 2 terms in a row could've been soooo much worse.

Alternately he's actually a good POTUS this time (highly doubt it admittedly) and he wins people over properly instead of idiots who came of age during Biden's term not having paid attention to politics during the "better" Trump presidency deciding to vote him in. I would like to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I can't in good conscience for now.

On a more serious note, at least I know now that Trump isn't just a cult leader anymore. Getting fewer votes than the one election he lost AND winning a majority of the national popular vote despite his approval rating having never been above 50% as POTUS? Something's up.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Alternately he's actually a good POTUS this time (highly doubt it admittedly)

No shot.

I had some hopes for that in 2016, he said during campaigning that he would be the best president for LGBT people ever, an act that really wouldn't be that hard. All he would have to do is pass the Equality Act, ammending the civil rights bill of 1964 to include LGBT people.

Not only did he make no attempt to be a good president for LGBT people, not even a token "see this minor good thing I've done for the LGBT movement", he banned trans people from the military.

And this time he hasn't even promised anything vaguely good-sounding. He's promised revenge on his enemies, and promised pardoning January 6 traitors, and project 2025 has promised some utter trash policies.

Best case scenario he's an ineffective president cause people resist and use the courts and block him from making the changes he wants.

I mean he's a cult leader but that isn't the whole fanbase or even a majority. They're certainly the loudest but his growth across demographics isn't that.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/nathanjrobinson/status/1854603407237300660?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

It's worked for Trump twice, maybe next election we should really lean into it instead of waffling.

metroidcomposite posted...

Best case scenario he's an ineffective president cause people resist and use the courts and block him from making the changes he wants.

He's going to be spending 90% of his time at Mar-a-Lago golfing while JD Vance runs the country

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/nathanjrobinson/status/1854603407237300660?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

Dems aint perfect, but hey maybe next time we can find our own rapist criminal to put up for President since theres so much trash voting for trash.

Is orange dorito even fit enough to be playing golf.

He can spend 90% of his time golfing, and still be effective at everything he means to do.

It takes a master weeks to carve a beautiful sand sculpture. It takes a child seconds to destroy that same sculpture.

Nothing Trump has planned is productive. It will be accomplished in no time at all

While Destiny is mostly terrible, he nailed this one, I think:

https://twitter.com/soybyte/status/1854633812593889363?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

swordz9 posted...

Dems aint perfect, but hey maybe next time we can find our own rapist criminal to put up for President since theres so much trash voting for trash.

We tried that and Hillary got trounced

LMS, do you have any knowledge about how good or bad Trump's first term was other than what you read on the internet?

Btw did Biden really open the floodgates for illegal immigrants himself? From what I heard Trump completely failed to curb illegal immigration and only curbed legal immigration.

swordz9 posted...

Dems aint perfect, but hey maybe next time we can find our own rapist criminal to put up for President

don't make a clinton joke don't make a clinton joke

https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1854662958770495790?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

Does the video even imply what he thinks it means.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/hasanthehun/status/1854662958770495790?s=46&t=v9nzYLLBIiNYrqldFs9NWQ

Oh man are we posting our favorite Hasan Piker quotes?

https://twitter.com/TCBrady133/status/1749588376284484049?t=roY4P97gqzk57LGt3i3zJQ&s=19

AuraChannelerCh posted...

Does the video even imply what he thinks it means.

No, terrorist sympathizer Hasan Piker is making things up about that clip, which is plain to see if you actually watch it

PrivateBiscuit1 posted...

No, terrorist sympathizer Hasan Piker is making things up about that clip, which is plain to see if you actually watch it

lmfao are you really like this

Dancedreamer posted...

We should've lost in 2020. Let Trump bare the brunt of his bad policies instead of fixing things for everyone. Gas prices would've rose, things would overall be worse, but we could have instead come into 2024 as the saviors from Trumpism without ever moving to the right on anything or relying on the 8 or so Republicans who voted for a democrat becuase Trump was appalling. Probably could have had the senate in 2022, and probably the house too.

Covid would've been a lot worse, though. But at least our suffering would be over.

I disagree, because after losing and inciting an insurrection, getting charged with several felony counts, this did not deter Americans and they still voted for him. This just exposed to us the current morality level of our citizens. If the perception to them that he's gonna help their wallet (he won't) then they can see past the violent rhetoric, chaos, and criminal charges. This is a complete lack of faith in institutions and the law. Selfishly making a deal with the devil because they think yogurt will now be 75 cents cheaper or whatever dumb shit they believe.

So fuck'em. The only way societies can grow and learn after they have succumbed to autocracy is through extreme hardship. Sadly, that's exactly what this country needs now in order to break through.

Theres been reports of thousands of votes that went missing in North Carolina and other swing states. Check and make sure your vote was counted.

Uh oh.

PerfectChaosZ posted...

Theres been reports of thousands of votes that went missing in North Carolina and other swing states. Check and make sure your vote was counted.

source?

I'm of no illusion no matter HOW many votes went missing (allegedly) that he still would've won. Ugh.

Everyone I talk to outside my GameFAQs/Discord bubble has a local horror story/cope for why this election sucked from a "voting was ass" standpoint. My friends back in NJ reported three hour waits. Here in my Ohio town, hour and a half during the last day of early voting (with some tactical Mormon annoyances preaching in the line.) During my own early voting three weeks ago, some complaints of the provided styluses not functioning to hit the touchscreens on the ballot unless trying to click Republican candidates (I had no such problem.)

I'm prepared to accept the reality that people are just fucking stupid goldfish that dont remember how many suffered from his buffoonery (I lost aunts, friends, and coworkers to Covid alone, which recall, he responded to DISASTROUSLY) and as such I will carry on a career path (such as it is) trying to undermine the parade of ignorance. Library work is ending soon, plans for tutoring or charity nonprofit forthcoming once I work more through my estate and disposal of ashes that I've been holding a guilt trip over for a year.

Meanwhile money wise I'm just wondering if I should start w/d'ing a thousand bucks a week and stuff half of it in a fireproof safe for the next few months.

I saw it in more than place so it wouldnt hurt just to check and make sure your vote was counted and all.

Slotkin won Michigan with 20k votes, far less than the Libertarian vote. If Amash won the primary, he would probably have beaten Slotkin.

In hindsight, Amash losing so hard in that primary should've shown how little anti-Trump energy there was in Michigan and in the country as a whole. Most people really weren't all that pent up waiting to eradicate Trumpism. They actually liked having Trump as a weapon in their back pocket.

UltimaterializerX posted...

No Destiny

You can't actually refute anything he said

tfw Trump is elected and Fed cuts again
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/7/7d730da1.png

Maybe the hyper inflation will come before 2026 after all!

Pump before the rug pull hope you have stop loss

Even if bitcoin rugpulls, it will still trend upwards in USD, that's how bad Trump's economy is gonna be

Preach Newsmax, screw everyone else:

https://twitter.com/MaximEffort433/status/1854713498489487578

Because THIS is what accounts for a prime slot discussion (which was way worse before, but still):

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1854702350570508348

Gotta guard the Nuclear Code Bunker with these:

https://twitter.com/stevegrubershow/status/1854638369336152254
...because real dogs kept mistaking Trump for a trespasser and bit him (okay, not true, but what if...?)

Jerome Powell refuses to drop his position even if Trump threate-er, tells him to:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1854617535947194759

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1854717081503383973

Also, Trump does not-Trump things now:

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1854636837748588621
(we can all just imagine him pacing around with a severe case of twitter withdrawal...or he got a stroke again)

AuraChannelerCh posted...

...because real dogs kept mistaking Trump for a trespasser and bit him (okay, not true, but what if...?)

Biden inviting Trump to a tour of the white house.

...Coincidentally, Commander Biden to return to White House on the same day.

Now that Yoav Gallant has been fired from Netanyahu's cabinet, he's speaking out:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/after-firing-gallant-tells-hostage-families-netanyahu-needlessly-keeping-troops-in-gaza/

Former defense minister Yoav Gallant reportedly told families of hostages held in Gaza that Israels military has no reason to remain in the Strip, and that Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu is keeping soldiers in Gaza out of a desire to stay there.

What's taking so long to count all the votes? Not all the presidential votes have been counted in Rhode Island (97%), and that place is the size of a vacant lot. A mere 76% of votes have been counted in Alaska, where grizzly bears outnumber people.

I know this is nitpicking, since Trump was declared the winner two days ago, and RI and AK are hardly swing states. But I like general election voting stats. Do they just stop counting votes after the election is decided? What gives?

LordoftheMorons posted...

It would be very uphill for sure, but if there's a big enough backlash to Trump they could possibly get Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina (and maaaaaybe Texas).

Looks like I forgot about one: There will be a special election in 2026 in Ohio for Vance's seat (it'll be a GOP appointment until then), so that's one more difficult but possible pickup for Dems in a good year.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/08/eu-summit-trade-policy-economic-growth

Heartbreaking: The Worst Person You Know Just Made a Great Point

Anyway, just so its said since I dont recall seeing it here and weve gotten into the counterfactuals: Biden not running in 2016 was a colossal mistake. Based on the actual 2016, 2020, and 2024 results I think he crushes 2016 Trump who probably doesnt run again. Which is to say Obama was wrong to block him. Then he rides covid and not needing to campaign in person to re-election in 2020. This is the last what if post I will make here but yeah just wanted to say it.

That massive voter turnout in 2020 wasn't one bit for Biden. It was for not-Trump.

If Biden had run in 2016, he would only have been slightly more likely to win than Clinton. And if Clinton had run for the first time in 2020, she might have been the first female president.

LightningStrikes posted...

Anyway, just so its said since I dont recall seeing it here and weve gotten into the counterfactuals: Biden not running in 2016 was a colossal mistake. Based on the actual 2016, 2020, and 2024 results I think he crushes 2016 Trump who probably doesnt run again. Which is to say Obama was wrong to block him. Then he rides covid and not needing to campaign in person to re-election in 2020. This is the last what if post I will make here but yeah just wanted to say it.

There is almost no way Biden would have won the primary in 2016. He would have gotten suffered severe SFF from Hillary among the establishment voters and most likely dropped out very early on.

nah, people hate hillary more than enough to offset the small wins biden got in 2020.
2016 biden also looked better. old, but better than the past 4 years. enough to win uh... unclear i suppose, but the dude's likeable enough that maybe, sure.

still think the biggest thing is that everyone who said he should resign early - keeping his end of the bargain when he said he'd be a one term president - and allow for a proper primary was right. would've tested the candidates, would've spoiled kamala faster, and would've had somebody more capable who could win.

No one could've changed the results in 2024 or 2020. The margins were way too high.

2016 definitely could've been won by someone who was just 1% more likeable than Hillary (extremely easy to do).

Anyway, it's clear that 2028 will be a completely new environment (even if Trump actually delivers on his promise to be our dictator) that pretty much no previous lessons can be carried over.

I think its clear now that a big portion of voting democrats wont turn out for a woman at all and that is truly terrible.

The incomplete numbers...

Senate: Republicans 53 - 45 Democrats
[Highly likely this ends 53 - 47]

House: Republicans 211 - 199 Democrats
[Current Advantage: Republicans+2]
[Flips at the moment: R+6, D+4]

Yeah Hillary herself could have won 2016 if just a few things had gone differently. Her popular vote margin was (likely) bigger than Trumps will be now. While 2024 probably wasnt impossible for Democrats it seemingly would have taken a true outsider candidate which seems very unlikely.

Also getting very annoyed at people already doing the the polls were wrong! thing when the polls were basically right (like 2016). The conventional wisdom was wrong.

The 2016 polls were very accurate but I wouldn't characterize the 2020 or 2024 polls as basically right. Well, actually I wonder what happens with the 2024 polls if the aggregators didn't weigh different polls differently based on perceived quality of pollster and partisan lean of pollster. That might make it come out not too far off.

LightningStrikes posted...

While 2024 probably wasnt impossible for Democrats it seemingly would have taken a true outsider candidate which seems very unlikely.

Bernie probably would've had the best chance, just like in 2016