Current Events > so how bad will the recession be when the ai bubble pop?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Maybe the bright side is nvidia will actually make good gpu again.

Itll be fine. GPU prices arent going down cause they will just sell to bitcoin miners and scalpers instead

Did da crypto bubble ever pop

All I'll say is that y'all won't be feeling so uppity about the Donner Party before too long.

I don't think it'll actually be that bad. The AI sector is comparatively small in the number of players, but the amount of capital flowing in is insane. This isn't going to be like the 2008 financial crisis. I don't even think it'll be like the dot-com bubble bursting, which took down some significant players.

bad for the tech sector but probably not gonna make things any worse than they are now for regular people.

Set MLK free and the money will flow

Folks going all in on nvidia or other AI-inflated stocks deserve to be fleeced at this point, but like outside of that there's probably not *too* much impact to other sectors?

Vegy posted...

Did da crypto bubble ever pop

A few times, but it keep coming back.

I got a feeling It's gonna be pretty fucking bad. Way too much money put into it.

If you recall the 2008 crisis it was a clusterfuck, and this reminds me of something similar. The economy is too interconnected and many sectors already have high stakes on AI

I'm no economists but I imagine really bad especially if Trump is still in office since he'll already have interest rates as low as he can get them before the bubble bursts.

It could be like the dot com bubble pop, which kept the stonk market down for years, but that sort of coincided with 9/11 too so it's hard to say if an AI bubble pop would give similar results.

Maybe a few companies like Salesforce end up looking stupid, but I think it's mostly just the AI agent startups that are going to fail.

apple
microsoft
nvidia
alphabit
amazon

those 5 companies make up 30% of the S&P 500 right now. their profits have ballooned over the last few years in very large part due to the ai bubble. when it pops the stock market is going to crash because that value is going to evaporate.

monkmith posted...

apple
microsoft
nvidia
alphabit
amazon

those 5 companies make up 30% of the S&P 500 right now. their profits have ballooned over the last few years in very large part due to the ai bubble. when it pops the stock market is going to crash because that value is going to evaporate.

Yeah it will crash. But investment money will just shift elsewhere when it does.

But I dont think AI is necessarily this useless product with no value. All of these server centers theyre building. The power plants. All of that has value after the market pops.

boomgetchopped3 posted...

Yeah it will crash. But investment money will just shift elsewhere when it does.

But I dont think AI is necessarily this useless product with no value. All of these server centers theyre building. The power plants. All of that has value after the market pops.

i'm not sure how you can look at the billions sunk into massively overvalued AI just evaporating like a fart in the wind one day and not see parallels to fun times like the 2008 housing bubble. the richest companies in the world have based their future around AI, and a bunch of smaller companies exist purely on the trading of imaginary value because of those huge investments right now. you kick over the stack of cards and you'll destabilize the whole world economy as huge amounts of 'investment value' just fade away.

it's gonna be bad. people saying it's not are rationalizing things to themselves.

people's retirement funds, IRAs, 401Ks will be fucked.

it'll be horrible for everyone, and then to add insult to injury we will "bail out" the tech companies even though they are causing this to happen in the first place. we'll let them raise our electricity prices so they can mine bitcoin with their datacenters, laughing at us the entire time through a cloud of grape-flavored vape smoke

https://youtu.be/Q0TpWitfxPk

The money's just going in circle. Ai companies buying nvidia chips, so nvidia give the ai companies money, in return they buy more chips and the market thinks the demand and profit is high, nvidia stocks goes up, repeat the cycle.

I bought Nvidia before the last split and it's up by a hundred something percent.

The market is a circus

They are running out of data to feed the AI. A lot human knowledge has not been digitalised.

Scardude posted...

They are running out of data to feed the AI. A lot human knowledge has not been digitalised.

That's the point where AI starts feeding off itself and magnifying errors.

This will only hurt the people who can afford to go back to the more traditional ways of doing things, and the average person, who knows Jack shit about AI, will be fine.

ai123 posted...

That's the point where AI starts feeding off itself and magnifying errors.

It's their biggest secret. No one told investors this part. That's why they need to hire people to train their models but the corporations laughably fire the people they need for this.

Scardude posted...

It's their biggest secret. No one told investors this part. That's why they need to hire people to train their models but the corporations laughably fire the people they need for this.

CEO: Printer go brr!

* Explodes *

CEO: Why no it work?!

We're already in a recession in my opinion. Non-AI GDP growth was like 0.1%.
The rich will insider trade and escape or short the market, leaving the bag to the upper middle class and lower.

Consumer spending, which is being propped up by the top 20%, will plummet.

The cherry on top is that it's possible the bubble won't burst for a while. There's still the awful possibility of the pop occurring during the next administration that gets the blame.

Sansoldier posted...

We're already in a recession in my opinion. Non-AI GDP growth was like 0.1%.
The rich will insider trade and escape or short the market, leaving the bag to the upper middle class and lower.

Consumer spending, which is being propped up by the top 20%, will plummet.

The cherry on top is that it's possible the bubble won't burst for a while. There's still the awful possibility of the pop occurring during the next administration that gets the blame.

The annoying part, is that during the election, the Democrats could've totally banked on public emotions by saying they'd fix the recession. Instead, they tried to tell everyone that we were doing fine, which is completely tone deaf to how everyone's wallets were feeling.

nocturnal_traveler posted...

The annoying part, is that during the election, the Democrats could've totally banked on public emotions by saying they'd fix the recession. Instead, they tried to tell everyone that we were doing fine, which is completely tone deaf to how everyone's wallets were feeling.

US on the macro level was doing fine. You are speaking about the micro level. Their messaging was bad because they can't educate the populace on the difference nor do they try to.

You think the AI bubble will be the driving force in a recession? Seriously?

Scardude posted...

US on the macro level was doing fine. You are speaking about the micro level. Their messaging was bad because they can't educate the populace on the difference nor do they try to.

Exactly. They're supposedly intelligent. They should know by now how dumb the general population is.

nocturnal_traveler posted...

Exactly. They're supposedly intelligent. They should know by now how dumb the general population is.

Yea, your local politics and state politics matter more on micro. So, "dumb" (low information) people elected Trump and that's democracy at its finest due to lack of education.

The problem is going to be the 1-2 punch of an AI bubble burst combined with a loan repayment collapse.