Lurker > KCF0107

Given the lower amount of movie characters being featured, the past several iterations of this I have done exclusively film characters. Lou Bloom and Robert Angier I feel like have been on my past five or so polls.

Hitman 3

I just realized that this is February and should do the drawing today, but I already said awhile back that I would be doing the drawing on Friday, so whatever.

Monthly Progress
Pokemon - paper, Lolo
Billy - KCF
Nobody - Abacus, KCF

Nominations
Abacus - Alice Madness, Oddworld NnT
Ark - Sifu
Cody - Trover Saves Universe
darkx - Bayonetta 2, Golden Sun: LA
Fake - King's Quest (2015), Cat Quest
KCF - DKC3, Far Cry 3, Donut County
Lolo - Evoland 2
Sean - Elden Ring

Supports
Abacus - Bayo
Ark - Elden
Cody - Far Cry 3
darkx - Far Cry 3
Lolo - DKC
MZero - Elden
Paul - Donut

Drawing tomorrow

Ratchet and Clank: Rift Apart

34. Beat a game with an animal lead
Kaze and the Wild Masks

Kaze and the Wild Masks (XB1)

An excellent homage to the SNES DKC games, and along with Yooka-Laylee and the Impossible Lair, they are the best options for people clamoring for games such as those. The titular items though, and I know that they were eventually explained as to why they exist, felt a little arbitrary, but that's a minor complaint.

Ahh, that would explain it

Just where are these hearts located? I decided to go back to the game to try and obtain what I hadn't before. I only had like four friends/companions to go and luckily found them, but I'm seeing no indication of when I've completed an island or even an entire area. I'm completely done with Sanctum of Self but see no symbol when hovering over an island or looking at the screen as a whole.

Omori

Neon White has long been on my wishlist, but now I think that I will be adding Severed Steel

Yeah, I wasn't aware until I got to Sunken Harbor and was curious what would happen if I clicked on previous islands. I thought it would just show me if I collected everything there, but it actually transported me instead.

Oh wow, I was planning to submit something later this week thinking the ceremony would be early March, but I still have more than a month

I have played all but one of these, and nothing is in the realm of Lost Levels

13. Beat a game made by an indie developer
Crossing Souls

Crossing Souls (PS4)

Meant to be an homage to 80s kid-centric adventure films, I want to say that they did a good job on that front, but as a game, there were some nice aspects to it, but they often felt half-baked or underutilized in order to keep the game humming along

Yes

Bowser's Fury

Monthly Progress
Pokemon - paper, Lolo
Billy - KCF
Nobody - Abacus, KCF

Nominations
Abacus - F.I.S.T., Oddworld NnT
Ark - Sifu
darkx - Bayonetta 2, Golden Sun: LA
Fake - King's Quest (2015), Cat Quest
KCF - DKC3, Far Cry 3, Donut County
Lolo - Evoland 2
Sean - Elden Ring

Supports
Abacus - Bayo
Ark - Elden
darkx - Far Cry 3
Lolo - DKC
MZero - Elden
Paul - Donut

Drawing on Friday

To Do:
- Make new topic and decide on a starting date

Electrode

I have a soft spot for my first level 100 Pokemon

19. Beat a platformer
FutureGrind

10-20 seems right because more than that means I am averaging 3 hours or more a day, and that just doesn't seem right. I could be underestimating myself though.

FutureGrind (PS4)

Really neat tough-as-nails vehicular platformer. Probably the best design choice they made was having levels take a minute at the max

Inscryption

Well for my final nom, I feel a little bad about people wanting to play a particular game from the opposite group, so I will ahead and do Donut County.

KCF has beaten Nobody Saves the World

I barely touched the guild quests, a half dozen or so forms still need to get to S rank, and I didn't complete all the mini dungeons or grab all the fairies, but I think that I've had my fill. This is a very fun and addictive game built on an impressive experimentation formula. The grindy nature does start to wear thin as you get deeper in the game, but I just needed a little break, and I got back into the swing of things in the past day to get through to the end.

5. Beat a game released in 2022
Nobody Saves the World

Nobody Saves the World (XB1)

I got burnt out for awhile that required me to take a break for like a week, but this is another great game from Drinkbox Studios. I loved experimenting with forms and abilities.

It Takes Two

NFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. St. Louis Rams
2. Dallas Cowboys
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Atlanta Falcons
5. San Juan Orcas
6. New York Giants

Playoff Contenders
7. Toronto Wildcats
8. Washington
9. Green Bay Packers
10. San Francisco 49ers
11. Seattle Seahawks
12. Philadelphia Eagles
13. Chicago Bears
14. Detroit Lions

Better Luck Next Season
15. Carolina Panthers
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dark Horse: New York Giants
Dark, Dark Horse: Washington

NFC South

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. San Juan Orcas
3. Carolina Panthers
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For a team that went 5-11 last season, did not have most of its draft picks, and lost several key players to retirement, I'm really liking the potential of this Falcons team. The lack of draft picks was a blessing in disguise as they had tons of cap space to grab high-impact players in free agency. Chief among them was OT Tony Ugoh who is the best OT that they've had since Jonathan Ogden and Chris Samuels were both bookends. Ugoh's last three seasons saw him with 200+ blocks and just 10 sacks allowed. They also nabbed SS S'ua Cravens to replaced the Hall of Famer Lewis Baker. While he is no Baker, He is strong against the pass and run and will help out former #2 overall pick CB Xavier Rhodes. While is overall rating might not look it, FB Toby Hubbard is a massive improvement over Leslie Evans as Hubbard was the top run-blocking FB on the market. The question now is if this team mixed with youth and veteran starters all over can congeal into a rock solid team over the course of the season. There's also the question of if this team with depth issues and history of injuries amongst the starters can withstand a full season, but that's not as compelling. I do realize that they couldn't hold up for a whole season last year, but for the most part, this has been a very competitive team after the past 5-10 seasons. They are clearly much better than 5-11, and I think they can reclaim the division.

The Orcas had possibly the largest designed player turnover season last year, and it delivered with their first NFC South title and playoff victory. Now they had to change their offensive identity again after hall of famers QB Chris Leak and HB LaMarcus Coker retired. Replacements QB Marcus Mariota and HB Knowshon Moreno are no Leak and Coker, but they have shown to be very effective in their own right. Unfortunately Moreno is now out for a third of the season, and while the Orcas went big on signing Mariota, this is the first time he has been the full-time starter, so there's quite the risk factor. He is in a good situation with the OL and WR/TE corps, but he will need to make an immediate impact in Moreno's absence. The defense though has a chance of becoming among the league's elite. It was already great last season, but what caused them to go 9-7 instead of a better record like their stats indicated was the poor health of the secondary exposing their lack of depth. They went out and signed one of the top-rated CBs we've ever seen on the market in former Pro Bowler Ross Cockrell. Now this defense is complete and stacked. Only two starters are in their 30s, so this defense might be here to stay. If the defense does end up as one of the league's best, it could more than make up for what may be a regression on offense and propel them to consecutive division titles, but they should at least be one of the wild card favorites.

Both the Panthers and Bucs are undergoing rebuilds, but the Panthers are closer to getting back into playoff contention. While QBs in the Madden-generated draft era have left a lot to be desired, it would be very hard for rookie QB Lamar Jackson to not be a noticeable improvement over what they had last season. HB LeSean McCoy missed half of last season due to injury, but his rushing efficiency was on par to his first season with the club, and he cut his fumbles down. He may not be an elite HB, but he should continue to be an asset for this offense. The OL is in good shape too. The WR/TE groups are among the league's worst, so that probably limits Jackson's ceiling, as a rookie anyway. The offensive ceiling is not particularly high for this team, but they shouldn't be the embarrassment that they were last season. I don't know what to quite expect from the defense. They were adequate last season, but will they be any better this season? With DT Callahan Bright gone, they lack disruption on the DL but might still be effective against the run. The heart of the defense is in the 30-something trio at LB in Justin Houston, Reggie Outlaw, and Sean Spence. They aren't outstanding run defenders or pass rushers, but they all showed some disruptive prowess. The secondary sees two new starters. SS Skip McGrath's skillset does not indicate he is great in pass defense, but it does appear that he's a great run-defender, which will be critical in their divisional games against three offenses trying to establish a long-term identity with young QBs. The team is clearly not a playoff team, but when you go 3-13, you just want to see improvement, and the schedule is easy enough before the bye to where they have a great chance at equaling their win total by the time they reach Week 10.

The Bucs, to put it simply, still have a long road ahead of them. The interior OL, DL, and secondary is still in flux with young players trying to establish themselves as long-term solutions and veterans trying to keep units from falling apart. Former #1 overall pick QB Trevor Largent was one of the league's worst QBs in the second half of last season and lost his job for the time being after the preseason. That's what you like to see. They do have some great, young building blocks that have already or shown signs of establishing themselves in WRs Jarvis Landry, DE Leonard Williams, OLB Bradley Chubb, and MLB Alec Ogletree, but unlike the rest of the league, their veteran presence is kind of disappointing outside of a few standouts. #2 overall pick HB Alvin Kamara will be backing up stud Matt Forte in what will likely be the latter's final season as a Buc. There's just not a lot to specifically talk about the Bucs because it just seems like the most fluid roster situation in the league. Like the Panthers, they are still another season away from being playoff contenders, but they actually might need two.

NFC North

1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions

The Vikings have won two of the last three Super Bowls, but, and I know that I've said this for other teams as well, they are looking to be a little vulnerable. They lost three major players to retirement (WR Cameron Colvin, FS Ko Simpson, and CB Devin Hester), and while their replacements could ultimately fill the void, it would be prudent to expect some dropoff in the passing offense and defense before also considering that QB Josh Portis has posted two straight sub-70 passer rating campaigns. Losing this top target can't be good for his efficiency. Luckily, the Vikings have a great HB and an excellent OL blocking for everyone. The front seven is also very stout, though its starting to get up there in years. It also helps that the NFC North isn't a particularly daunting division. The Vikings should still be the favorites, but I wouldn't go around betting your life savings that they will repeat as division champs.

Last season was one that the Packers would like to forget. QB Tyrod Taylor had easily his worst season as a passer since S9, the HB room was injured and ignored to the point of mid-70s Tavian Radetsky starting 8 games with a 3.3 YPC. The defense was solid if unspectacular, and the team was just uninspiring as a whole. They lost five starters to retirement but they bounced back with a fantastic draft in my eyes, and they filled out the rest of the team with some quality veteran depth. The Packers actually have a history in the Tangicide era of bouncing back from a bad or mediocre season with a NFC North-winning season. There's plenty of reason for optimism, including thinking that #4 overall pick HB Austin Ekeler could be one of the rare impact rookie HBs due to the team's history with its running game and OL play. Even if that doesn't end up being the case, the defense performing closer to what it normally does should at least put the team in play for a wild card, especially with an easy schedule.

I'm always leery about giving the Bears reason for optimism because when have I ever been right, but I think that they can get out of the basement, even with their best player, SS Derek Linde, out for most of the season. They have a pretty complete offensive skill position group now that they added TE Rob Gronkowski to the fold. The state of the OL could easily derail it, but I think that they will be alright on offense. Now that may mean finishing in the upper teens or so, but you really just want to avoid being really ineffective and also turning the ball over a bunch, and I think that they have the players to do just that. While a more skilled group than the offense, I'm a little skeptical about the defense in light of Linde's injury, but looking at the schedule, there's only a few teams that could end up with elite offenses, so they might be adequate as a whole. It really depends on how this front seven holds up given several starters have recent injury histories. There are a lot of games against scrambling QBs. While it would be unrealistic to expect them to be in playoff contention, I do expect to see improvement in this team both on the field and in the win column.

The Lions are rebuilding on offense, and they might soon have to go back to the drawing board at QB. HB Ameer Abdullah had one of the least impactful 1000 yard rushing seasons you will see, and now Alex Collins gets his chance at being the bell cow. They have a trio of seemingly solid WRs, but none of them appear to be true #1s. The Lions lost Gs Justin Smiley and Jonathan Clinkscale to retirement after they had been with the team since the very beginning. They signed Sebastian Vollmer in free agency and promoted former 2nd round pick Joshua Garnett to fill those roles. This hasn't been a great OL since the Peyton Manning era, and incumbent starters in C Greg Eslinger and RT Germayle Franklin might retire after the season. That might be a blessing in disguise as it will allow them to infuse that unit with more new blood, but I guess that's irrelevant for the practice of this exercise. The defense is what has allowed them to most consecutive non-losing seasons, but they were dealt a huge blow in the preseason. MLB Bryan Vinson will be gone for a quarter of the season and rising star MLB Jerry Mayes is done for the season. That means this 3-4 D is now without two starters, let alone two of their best. They could sign one of the best available and play someone out of position or sign two lesser MLBs but avoid having to play an OLB there. Either way, it's not an ideal situation, and without Vinson and Mayes, the defense has a disruptive playmaking issue. The team has a pretty low floor given all the issues around the team, so I'm playing it safe and putting them last knowing that their defensive ceiling, depending on how they address the MLB situation, is high enough to get them to around .500.

NFC East

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. New York Giants
3. Washington
4. Philadelphia Eagles

Last year was definitely a down year for the NFC East, and you have to wonder if the NFC West will once again be the conference's best. It all starts with the Cowboys who easily own the league's longest division streak at nine seasons. With one of their best defenders retiring after last season (FS Keenan Clayton), you have to worry a bit about the secondary. The front seven should continue to dominate, and while there are some very talented WRs and TEs in the division, there's a lot of suspect and unproven signal callers throwing to them to where the secondary might be just fine. The offense saw a comeback and MVP-caliber season out of QB Cam Newton. Most of the offense returns, but they will see a new HB in the former Jag Devonta Freeman. In his one season as the full-time starter, he had a 4.2 YPC and caught over 50 passes. While former HB Darius Walker did have a hall of fame career, Freeman might have more potential and a better skillset than him. The OL does have two new starters at the ends, but the powerful interior is still intact. The Cowboys might be the most vulernable it has ever been in this run of unprecedented dominance, but they should still be the favorite as they seek their 10th straight division title and attempt to make their 8th Super Bowl in that span.

The Giants have done a very good job at roster building and player development the past two seasons, and they even started each season 2-0 before things just unraveled. Shaking things up, the Giants are going in a new direction at QB as they try to revitalize the offense with a scrambling QB in Ryan Perrilloux. Unfortunately, he's going to be out for half the season, so they also signed Jake Locker as an injury fill-in. Locker was actually a bit underrated in Cincinnati. He was asked to do too much, which caused him to have high INT figures, but he has 60+% completion in every season, and his passer rating improved every season from 71.5 as a rookie to 78.0 last season, albeit in fewer starts as he began as a backup. It will be intriguing to see how things shake out QB-wise because if Locker continues to trend upward, he may not relinquish his starting job and get the long-term role. Talent, depth, and injuries plague the rest of the offense, so both the QBs aren't in the best position and the margin for error is pretty thin, but I think the offense can turn things around. The defense is very talented and individuals have had some great seasons, but the defense as a whole tumbled down the rankings last season. I expect them to rebound this season with better health, depth, and developing players. I kind of like the Giants this season, or at the very least, I find them interesting.

It wasn't a shock that Washington stumbled last season given the house of cards roster construction. When injuries struck, they were doomed. In anticipation of running into those issues again, I built my draft strategy around that, making sure to leave some holes for free agency, which ultimately netted them former Rams starter MLB Manti Te'o. He becomes the best MLB for them since Brian Urlacher retired an eternity ago. More importantly, this was the final piece of the defensive puzzle for them. I'm not saying this is going to be a great defense, at least immediately, but they finally have a to build around with five former 1st round picks and its oldest starters just 30. HB Ezekiel Elliot is on the verge of stardom, and their WR pair of Julio Jones and Selwyn Lymon are the best in the league. The OL was looking a bit thin, but they have spent their past two 1sts there, as well as other Day 1 or 2 draft picks, so the group is looking much healthier. The biggest question mark is at QB, where Brady Quinn's successor was going to be one of three unknowns, including two players with 0 pass attempts in their career. Of course the 5th round rookie won the job. His ratings actually look decent, so I'm intrigued by what I believe to be our first Day 3 rookie starter at the position can do in a rather good support system. The offensive ceiling may be lower as a result, but I think Washington can start to resemble the teams that had prior to S15.

The Eagles started out like 6-0 last season before finishing 10-6 and into a wild card spot where they were one-and-done in the playoffs. The preseason was especially brutal for them as they originally hoped to get back to their early season form from last season. Future hall of fame WR Ted Ginn, budding superstar RT Donovan Smith, and longtime rock LT Sam Baker will all lose basically the first half of the season. This offense struggled with consistency last season, so being without three of its best players is absolutely crushing. The first eight weeks doesn't look too difficult, but four of their six division games are before their Week 9 bye, including both of their Cowboy tilts. They absolutely can't go winless, and 1-3 might ultimately hurt them come playoff tiebreaker time. While the LBs and secondary are great, the DL is still very much a work in progress. Luckily for them, their first half schedule includes some games against teams trying to establish a running game and/or rebuilding their offensive line (Seahawks/Lions/Wildcats). There's plenty of glass half full and half empty arguments to be made for this team, but I fear that a largely favorable second half schedule might be too late for them if they don't start off the season well.

NFC West

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Toronto Wildcats
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Seattle Seahawks

One could argue that the Rams and their suffocating D and balanced offense were the best team in the league last season. Sometimes, being the best team doesn't mean you have the best record, and the Rams ultimately had to settle for a wild card where they lost. They return 10 of their 11 defensive starters, and seven of their starters are 28 or younger. This defense should stay elite for many seasons. The offense though has some areas of concern. The big one is their rushing game. Now that Romance Taylor retired and they let Giovanni Bernard walk, former 1st round pick Mike Davis is atop the depth chart. All three lost a chunk of time last season due to injury, but Davis was lost for the season after six games and one start. He performed as one would expect out of a rookie HB, so there's really not a lot to go off of here. Still, historically speaking, it takes several seasons for a HB to really get things going, so the running game might not be much of factor this season. QB Ryan Tannehill is one of the best, but the OL needs to do much better at protecting him, and new #2 WR Tyler Lockett must show that his revitalization in Miami last season was more indicative of who is going to be moving forward than his distrastrous stint with the Giants. The defense and perennial QB of the Year candidate Tannehill should be good enough to ensure a playoff berth or at least a non-losing season, but if they want to finally reach the Super Bowl, the OL and HB will need to step up in a big way.

The Wildcats could be considered a much poorer man's Rams. Their strengths and weaknesses are quite similar but are simply not as good as the Rams in pretty much every area. They've hovered around .500 and been a playoff contender until the final week or two for what seems to be several seasons as of late. That's largely been due to an ascending defense and the combo of QB Aaron Murray, WR Gonzie Massey and TE Dane Guthrie. Defense as a whole has been on the rise in recent seasons that rankings might not hold as much meaning as they did in the past, so even if they finish let's say league average, I still believe that the defense will be a strength for them this season. The issues are on offense. Murray just completed his first full season, but if he misses time, their QB situation is probably the worst in the league. HB Dalvin Cook had a 3.2 YPC in 16 games and 6 starts as a rookie. He was easily the worst of the 1st round rookie HBs last season. This team has been seeking a long-term solution at the position since Laurence Maroney retired. The OL continues to be a work-in-progress, but they brought in a new starter and also draft one in the first round. Perhaps there will be some improvement there. While they did lose one of their best defensive players for half the season, the offense came away injury-free. As long as depth isn't forced into starting roles, the Wildcats should remain a playoff contender.

The 49ers were one of the more surprising #1 seeds in our history. At first glance, the defense might not strike fear into anyone's hearts, but it is what drove them to the conference championship round last season. I would expect them to continue building on it this season. The offense has major question marks. After a solid outing in his debut starting season, QB Mitchell Trubisky is currently backing up Christian Hackenberg and his career 12 passing attempts. Regardless of who's throwing the ball, the WR corps is absymal. Patterson, the #1 after the underrated Lance Leggett's retirement, had probably the worst year by a starting WR that I've ever seen. Despite being the full-time starter all season, he had 25 rec for 147 yards. That's a 5.8 YPC. I don't know if I have ever seen anyone dip below 7 before. He certainly can't replicate that again, but it does give me great concern if he can hack it as a starting WR, at least in San Fran. WR Brandin Cooks has a sub 10 YPC in four of the past five seasons, including his half-season tryout last year when he had 17 rec for 142 yards. Inexplicably, that netted him a new 4 year contract that will hamstring that made it financially irresponsible to target a starting-caliber WR in the offseason. Cooks lost his starting job in the preseason, so go figure. The OL is one of the best in the league, and maybe Rawls can continue to improve his efficiency to keep in line with his production. However, the dark cloud looming over the passing offense is enough to give me flashbacks of the S14 Patriots. I would temper my expectations of them this season.

The Seahawks are on paper the second-best team in the division. QB Kirk Cousins was once again injured, and they started a rookie HB in Aaron Jones, so the offense as a whole stepped back, but it did showcase a lot of promising players. The defense was one of the league's worst in S14, and they went hard after free agents on that side of the ball in the subsequent offseason. While they weren't a good defense, they did show improvement. They added three more starters this offseason, and they did go 8-8 last season, so if the defense continues to make strides, and they get better health and growth on the offense, they could parlay that into a playoff berth or even a division crown. They are just one of several teams that I frequently expect good things out of only to look like a fool in the end, so I will ultimately need to see it to believe it.

I went back to Nobody to clear out more mini-dungeons and rank up some forms to S. I had figured that ranking up forms would also increase their base stats, but that does not appear to be the case. I guess ranking up really only allows you to purchase higher-ranked abilities. Oh well, I don't regret the 2-3 hours I spent as I have gone from Level 50 to 58. I have three mini-dungeons in my map that I haven't beaten yet, but I might just give the 5th main dungeon another whirl. Leveling up only increases base stats between 1-2% at this point, so I can't imagine it making that big of a difference, but I suppose I will find out soon enough.

I was about to say yeah, but apparently what I bought were TG-16 games

For my first two noms, I'm going with:

Donkey Kong Country 3: Dixie Kong's Double Trouble!
Far Cry 3

KCF has beaten Rainbow Billy

The battle minigames are totally unbalanced (circular button pressing is so much easier than the rest and the pong one is on the opposite spectrum), they went a little too hard in its tone, and several of the puzzle variants lost their luster after the first few.

That being said, this was a great game. While the minigames were unbalanced, they did actually have quite a bit of variety within each one to keep you on your toes, and I always welcome a turn-based game in which every battle has signficant meaning/rewards. They did an excellent job throwing out a lot of battle gimmicks to keep things fresh too. I liked the responsive and simplistic platforming as well.

I would go and collect everything that I didn't before since I kind of find the exploration process fun in this game, but even though the world completely opens up without problem once you beat the game, there's still no indication on the mini-map where anything you missed might be, so I'm not compelled at this moment to hunt them all down by searching every nook and cranny.

14. Beat an RPG
Rainbow Billy: The Curse of the Leviathan

Rainbow Billy: The Curse of the Leviathan (XB1)

There was a lack of puzzle variety, and sometimes the battles had some really unfair gimmicks, but overall this was a great lighthearted game.

yes

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/4/2/3/AAN44mAAC7mn.jpg
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/4/2/4/AAN44mAAC7mo.jpg

The funny thing is that I got my 3DS in 2012, but my Top 4 playtime games I believe I all played/first played in 2017.

It is no shock that I don't recognize half of the characters, but I must be mistaken that #5 is Squall Leonhart or that he was a 20-something because I was his first vote

Each game engine is updated from the last, so you can play all main missions via 3's engine if you play via 3

Monthly Progress
Pokemon - paper, Lolo
Billy -
Nobody - Abacus

Nominations
Abacus - F.I.S.T., Oddworld NnT
Ark - Everhood
darkx - Bayonetta 2, Golden Sun: LA
Fake - King's Quest (2015), Cat Quest
Sean - Elden Ring

Supports
Ark - Elden
MZero - Elden

AFC Seeding

Playoff Teams
1. Portland Express
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Columbus Pioneers
6. Denver Broncos

Playoff Contenders
7. New York Jets
8. Oakland Raiders
9. Cincinnati Bengals
10. Buffalo Bills
11. Indianapolis Colts
12. Kansas City Chiefs
13. New England Patriots
14. Pittsburgh Steelers

Better Luck Next Season
15. Mexico City Browns
16. Tennessee Titans

Dark Horse: Columbus Pioneers
Dark, Dark Horse: Indianapolis Colts

AFC South

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Columbus Pioneers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Tennessee Titans

I'm very bullish on the Jags this season. They had a blistering end to the season that nearly resulted in a division title or wild card berth after a 1-7 start. Nearly all of the starters from that time return, including QB Reuben Lane who must have had an excellent preseason. Their initial draft plans may have been foiled, but they did grab two defensive players with the first picks who proceeded to have great preseasons to starting jobs. I know the preseason is hardly something to get worked up over, but I will take encouraging signs when they show themselves. After winning the division eight out of 10 seasons from S3-S12, the Jags haven't been to the playoffs since, but I'm liking their chances at ending their mini-drought based on the offseason and how things ended up last season.

The Pioneers were in the Super Bowl in S13 and S14, but they finished with a losing record in S15 after their offense completely cratered. They spent two firsts on the offense and brought in two new starting OL in free agency who look to be good fits for the team. QB Russell Wilson, a perennial QB of the Year contender, has to expected to bounce back. HB Markus Manson went from an MVP candidate to rushing for 837 yards in 16 starts last season. He couldn't be as ineffective if he tried. The ceiling may not be super high, but the floor has to be much higher now. The defense continues to make strides as an oft-elite unit. Losing SS Vonn Bell hurts, but Orlando Montgomery did have 4 INTs and a pair of FFs+FRs last season, and the rest of the defense is fanastic. They play the AFC and NFC North this season, so the schedule is largely favorable. I truly wouldn't be surprised if they win the division and even get a first round bye, but I'm going to temper my expectations a bit and say they should be among the favorites for a wild card.

The Colts OL, specifically at G, is still a major red flag, but I expect the offense to make strides this season, even if its just baby steps. QB Baker Mayfield should instantly be the best QB for the team since Charlie Whitehurst was shown the door. I'm curious if there will be a Year 4 breakout from HB Duke Johnson in a contract year after three years of consistently intriguing advanced stats to go along with underwhelming surface stats. They have a talented, albeit rookie, backup in Jamaal Williams they can test out if the need or desire arises. The crop of pass catchers leaves a lot to be desired. The defense continues to be elite, but some of them are in the final stretch of their careers and the talented team on that side has started to get paid. Like the Bengals, I think that the Colts could really sneak up on people and compete for both a division and wild card this season. It will ultimately be up to the offense.

Vince Young brought a mediocre offense and bad defense to the playoffs where they unsurprisingly went one-and-done with Young calling it a career at the conclusion. The Titans replaced him with Ben Olson. While he should allow them to continue being a turnover-averse offense, he is best suited for a complete offense needing someone at the helm to help control the ball and allow the talented playmakers to do their thing. That doesn't describe the Titans offense at all. I expect this to be more of the same last season where Olson and Evans have a strong connection, but everyone else is invisible or inefficient. Olson and his career 157 rushing yards on 1.1 YPC will not be replicating Young and his nearly 4000 total yards, including nearly 1400 on the ground. This offense is going to see a sizable drop. This defense ranked like 29th or 30th last season. I just know that it was the worst-ranked defense to ever make the playoffs. They had basically one great non-LB, and they cut him instead of restructuring his contract (DE Jamaal Anderson). I can't imagine a scenario outside of total implosion and injury chaos by the vast majority of the league where the Titans will not field a Bottom 10 defense. They only lost one starter to injury (and it was at an area of strength at OT), but it feels like the season is already lost.

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Mexico City Browns

The Ravens have won the division for five straight seasons, and they bring back 20 of their 24 starters from a season ago. including reigning co-MVP HB Doug Martin, fresh off the fifth 2000 yard rushing season in our history. If their inexplicably bizarre turnover issues regress to the mean, their dependable offense and elite defense should allow them to cruise to a sixth straight AFC North crown and be a Super Bowl contender. Maybe I am getting a bit ahead of myself, but conference seeding will be curious to me because perennially one of the most feared divisions in the NFC East are their non-conference opponents, and I don't know how I feel about the strength of that division this season. The schedule as a whole looks relatively easy, but their chances of getting the top seed or maybe even just a bye might depend on their non-conference performance.

The Bengals are one of the more fascinating teams this season. While not on the Seahawks or Orcas level of change last season, the Bengals have undergone quite the makeover themselves this season. They signed, traded for, or drafted eight new starters this season, three on offense and five on defense, including QB Andy Dalton and DT Callahan Bright. The schedule looks to be on the easier side, and some of their toughest games are at home. They have nobody injured at the moment too. This could really be a team to look out for this season. I'm not calling for it to happen, but they could give the Ravens a challenge for the division. At the very least, a run at a wild card spot should be there for most of the season.

While still employing enough starting talent to not suck, the Steelers are expected to continue falling in the defensive rankings after losing their best coverage guy (FS Corey Campbell) and a very good OLB in Stephon Tulloch to retirement. They do play the AFC South and a potentially suspect NFC East, so the fall off is hopefully minor. For any hope at making it back into the playoffs though, the offense has to do better, and without the dynamic X factor of a scrambling QB, that really puts more pressure on the other skill position players. HB Christian McCaffrey had the raw numbers, but he was still in the bottom third in efficiency and has simply not had an impact in the passing game. Newly signed QB Mike Glennon, infamous for the distastrous S14 Patriots passing game that averaged under 100 yards a game, lost his preseason battle, so you know that bodes well. Great slot receiver Philly Brown was imported from Miami, and he too lost a preseason battle that he was expected to win. I don't know about anyone else, but I'm really liking the Steelers offensive potential this season. If this isn't a harbinger of things to come, the Steelers might compete for a wild card spot. If it is, well, there's always next season.

The Browns followed up a great defense in S14 with the worst defense in the league in S15. While trading away OLB Aaron Curry and losing FS Lovon Ponder to retirement played a huge role, it should not have fallen 20 or so spots. They will absolutely see some regression to the mean. The offense though is already dead on arrival. HB Mark Ingram, the heart and soul of this offense, is done for the season. They will turn to HB Isaiah Crowell, who has an injury history of his own, but more importantly, he has good efficiency numbers with a 4.4 career YPC. However, I have always viewed him as a low impact player, so he's basically being asked to carry this offense as QB Dak Prescott is out for half of the season with mid-70s backups. The offense was an above average unit last season, but they might pull what the defense did last season. They play nearly all of their home games when they are really banged up and most of their away games when their team might be healthier. This just isn't looking like it's the Browns year.

AFC East

1. Miami Dolphins
2. New York Jets
3. Buffalo Bills
4. New England Patriots

The Dolphins actually feel a little vulnerable right now. The DL has long been an excellent unit, beginning with DEs Travis Johnson and James Hall and DTs Darwin Walker and Mario Fatafehi to a long list of trade targets and high draft picks that kept the unit humming. Now it is a huge question mark with the excellent Calais Campbell and a third-year, second-year, and rookie. This is a division with Dexter McCluster and Todd Gurley as well as dates with elite players like Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, and R.J. Jackson. The DL needs to gel and play well rather quickly. After being one of the deepest teams for a long time, the offensive depth is simply not there any longer. 3/5 of their OL, their #1 HB, and #1 WR all missed time last season, and they can't really afford to let that happen again, especially now that QB Sam Keller will miss at least the first three games. That being said, they have plenty of stars on this team to the point that it would be a shock if they aren't in the playoffs. That secondary is just on a completely different level from everyone else, and the entire offense can't all be injured simultaneously right?

Ever since Fenny left, the Jets get my vote as the unluckiest team in the league. With injuries galore and a record unfit for how they perform, the Jets have just two playoff appearances since S7. That's bound to change and given the uncertainty around the conference, could the Jets finally get things back on track this season? In a "historic upset," the Jets defeated the preseason injury bug and emerged unscathed. They used their cap space to replace retired players and fill out depth, even if some of the choices weren't what I would have done (looking at OT Rob Havenstein and his career 6 block per sack ratio). As long as HB Joe Mixon improves in his second year and QB Deshaun Watson gets back on track, this is easily the most balanced non-Dolphins team in the division. What could hurt them in their quest for a playoff spot is that their non-conference is the NFC West, which you could argue is the toughest of the four possibilities. Going at least 2-2 there will help out immensely.

After years of having mediocre or worse offenses and defenses, the Bills' defense ended up being league average last season. They lost a pair of their best defenders to retirement, but they went out and signed DT DeMarcus Granger to fill in one of the voids. They don't have a particularly high ceiling on defense, especially when you take in trends and look at the talent around the league, but it shouldn't be abysmal. The offense is where the bigger question marks are at. They have star HB Todd Gurley, and while he has been one of the top rushers the past few seasons, the Bills have routinely finished in the bottom 10 in rushing due to Gurley probably having the highest team yard percentage out of anyone at the position. The OL has performed well statistically, but they do have a talent issue that puts them at a disadvantage against teams with great front sevens. What will QB A.J. McCarron show in his first full season in Buffalo after a roller coaster of a career coming into this one, and how much impact will the lack of receiving threats have on this team that is looking for its first playoff appearance since S9? There are too many question marks and there isn't an important area that I feel the team excels in for me to feel comfortable about its playoff chances, but there is enough talent and enough of a floor that it should be a fringe playoff contender to begin the season.

The Pats' defense fell off some to being an above-average unit last season. I think a large part of that is that the replacements for the retired safety tandem of Greg Blue and Keon Jackson didn't come close to adequately filling in. While the Pats addressed the present and future elsewhere on the defense, the safety tandem is still there, so you have to hope that the rest of the defense can cover, no pun intended, for them. The offense features an elite OL and one of the best HBs in Dexter McCluster, but this passing offense has been absolutely putrid. It wasn't the embarassing level that it was in S14, but the Pats are in the Top 3 in spending on WRs and TE Aaron Hernandez is both a murderer and a total non-factor on the field. All things considered QB Mason Rudolph had a decent rookie season, but he is now done for the season, and replacing him is Sam Bradford. Bradford last threw a pass in S13 when he posted a 55.7 passer rating in eight starts for the Titans, but in three of his previous five seasons, he did have a 70+ passer rating (a low bar I know) while playing for multiple franchises. I really don't know what to expect out of Bradford, but if he is adequate, the rest of the team should be good enough to compete for a playoff spot. The floor is just so low and the risk so high that I have a hard time not putting them last.