Lurker > Haste_2

Vivi
Magus
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If Crono wins Battle 143:
Cloud - 56.41%
If Mega Man wins Battle 143:
Cloud - 55.01%

Mario - 50.32%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If Samus ends with 56%:

Tifa and MMX are projected to beat Sonic with 54.56%
Luigi's projected to beat Vincent with 62.28%
Mewtwo's projected to beat Auron with 50.46%
Snake is projected to beat Tifa with 53.27%

I could see Tifa and MMX being slightly above Sonic, but not by THAT much....

Come on, Mega Man. Keep extending that lead! I want to see Mega Man vs. Cloud (even if Cloud will win easily).
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Snake stalled twice! Could he make a match of this?
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Sooooo... about my post saying which is more likely, Snake winning or Samus winning with 56+%. As we can see now, Snake winning was NOT obviously more likely....

I'm really curious about Samus vs. Zelda. Could Zelda beat Samus, too? Transitivity says she should be able to.

Oh, yeah, and all of TIfa's division has been vindicated! Luigi is above Bowser and Yoshi, just as I thought! (at last, it seems more likely now based on this point in the polls)
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

ShatteredElysium posted...

This also potentially makes Tifa > Seph not rSFF too.

Zelda beating Mario seemed to confirm that, but today's match seems to, well, DOUBLE confirm it.
Sephiroth just sucks really, really bad. Which makes me wonder how Ryu and Captain Falcon didn't do better on Seph....
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mario vs. Samus rSFF confirmed!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Funny how the board vote almost exactly matched the expected final percentages...
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Samus Aran - 52%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

25% parlay on Mega Man and Snake
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

LeonhartFour posted...

Squall [and Aerith and Shovel Knight] continues to look better and better...!

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

So... which is more likely, Snake beating Samus or Samus beating Snake with 56+%?
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Thank you Luster for doing that!

GO ZELDA! Crush my calculations!

So, either Zelda is rSFFing Mario, or.... my estimation of Mario's strength was way off. The only non-SFF match we have to measure Mario is his match against Sephiroth. Maybe Sephiroth's performance on Tifa was not rSFF, after all...
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Let's risk it...

Mario - 55%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Agh, I don't know what data to trust....

Mario - 54%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If extrapolating Tifa through Mario/Samus and Samus/Tifa, and then assuming Mega Man X = Sonic the Hedgehog, Mario beats Zelda with 52.66%.

If Sephiroth = Sonic, Mario beats Zelda with 51.65%.

If Ryu = Fox McCloud, Mario beats Zelda with 54.72%.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mario and Samus got similar scores on Sephiroth and Tifa. Mario beat Samus, suggesting that Sephiroth should beat Tifa. But Tifa beat Sephiroth! So the question is... was there rSFF in one of the matches? I figure option four will get the most votes, though I don't know if a poll like this will get very many voters...
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Crono - 51%
Samus - 53.5%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

It's better to be conservative and take an occasional risk if you want to catch up.

hylianknight3 posted...

Haste_2 posted...

Why am I so dumb...? I completely forgot that Zelda beat Snake. I thought Snake beat Zelda, so I bet Snake to beat Sonic with 57.5% instead of 55.5%. Oh, well. =p

Not so dumb!

Wow... my stupidity landed me the #1 pick for that match!

LeonhartFour posted...

oh hey I got a perfect prediction for Crono/Bowser

aw yeah

Well done. I have a perfect prediction in a bonus match, but I'm still waiting for to perfectly predict in an actual bracket match!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Rats. 40% on Mario.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Change: 20% on Cloud
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I don't know what to think on Cloud vs. Link. My gut tells me Cloud should get like 42% on Link. Yet past match results suggest maybe like 38% on Link. After all, I would expect Sephiroth to be closer to Cloud than Mario is to Link.

Sephiroth was worth 46% on Cloud in 2010. If you think Mario is around Samus' level, then you could say that Mario was worth 43% on Link in 2010.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I think Mario is stronger than given credit for, too...

And, of course, I meant that Cloud wouldn't beat Sephiroth with 57% before accounting for SFF.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Yes, but not with 57%. Ryu and Captain Falcon aren't THAT weak.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Very interesting stuff, Tsunami! The list of flipped results is smaller than I thought it would be.

2009 had the bonus match where it was OoT vs. FF7, and OoT won that.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Zelda over Mario, huh?

Mario got 59% on Sephiroth. Zelda got 62% on Aeris. MGS in general has dropped. My calculations suggests Mario wins with almost 57%. Zelda has to rSFF Mario to beat him.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Link - 59%
Mario - 55.55%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Luigi, definitely. He's nearly at Sephiroth's level (my estimate, through Mario vs. Samus, suggests he gets about 47.5% on Sephiroth). Bowser, meanwhile, is worth about 41% on Cloud.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

15% on Link
35% on Mario
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

theawesomestevr posted...

Snale - 57.45%

tennisboy213 posted...

everyone looks like a snail against Sonic

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Tifa lost to Samus once already. What did you expect?
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Why am I so dumb...? I completely forgot that Zelda beat Snake. I thought Snake beat Zelda, so I bet Snake to beat Sonic with 57.5% instead of 55.5%. Oh, well. =p

And it looks like I made another bad error. I had assumed Tifa would do better this time around due to having upset Sephiroth. (I predicted Samus with 57%) Oh, well!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

You forgot Mega Man X, who would have squeaked by Tifa it weren't for that rally.

I would say...

Link
Mario
Samus
Cloud
Zelda
Snake
Mega Man
Pikachu
Sephiroth

I think Sephiroth is stronger than Tifa indirectly. (60% on Ryu. 65% on Captain Falcon.) I don't think MMX or Tifa could match those performances.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

25% on Snake
25% on Tifa
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Samus Aran way.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Nelson_Mandela posted...

Man oh man some of these tracks on the OST are fucking phenomenal

Which ones in particular do you like?

I think the title screen music is really nice and full of warm fuzzies. I also like the Athletic stage music. The cave music is nice, too. (also, the "Stoned" themes. >_>) Oh, yeah, and there's the final boss music, obviously.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Solid Snake - 57.5%
Samus Aran - 57%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Frog vs. Magus... who's stronger between the two of them?

Lopen posted...

creativename posted...

I do not have any confidence in trying to predict a 2K4 match between these two, but clearly at this point people should be able to concede a 2K4 Samus victory is no longer something you can dismiss out of hand.

Sure you do because there's no reason to expect any matchup to flip over 10% from year to year without a significant release or factor specific to one of the characters to point to.

Let it be known I predicted this meeting within 1% too, if we're keeping score.

Sorry Lopen, but I've got to side with creative here. Mario went from 47% on Crono to 54% between 2004 and 2005. That's a 7% swing without SFF. Add in SFF and I think a 10% swing is possible. Samus beating Mario in 2004 seems very plausible, if you assume Samus didn't gain much between '04 and '05.

I do agree, however, that Samus could have been stronger than Mario in 2005 (more specifically, equal to what her 2006 match against Snake suggested). Certain matches you pointed out make your theory compelling.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures. Yet Mega Man is doing better and Bowser's doing about the same as last time. That's more evidence that popular characters aren't that pic-sensitive, as long as it's not something completely different like Sprite Snake.

So far the vote totals are a lot lower than MM/Pika and Crono/Bowser part 1. The original matches had 8308 votes at 21:35, while today's matches have 7496 votes at the same point in time. I suppose it does make sense that Mega Man fans know for a fact that MM can swing this match the other way, while Pikachu fans are perhaps saying... "Eh, Pikachu already won before. I don't care that much if he wins again".
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

25% on Mega Man
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

This may seem to defy SFF logic of the past, but it looks like to me that it's not Mario that's rSFFing Samus. Instead, Tifa was the one who rSFFed Sephiroth. The x-stats in Sephy's/Tifa's divisions make more sense that way....to me, at least.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Losers Round 2
Mega Man - 50.5%
Crono - 54%

Winners Round 3
Link - 58%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'd like to direct attention to ctesjbuvf for correctly calling Tifa over Sephiroth. Well done!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mario- 57%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

30% on Zelda
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Zelda - 56.5%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Mega Man defeated Silver Arrow Man before the match.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Wait, let me think this through...whoops!

If Tifa is stronger than Sephiroth, Samus is stronger than Mario. Since Tifa would not be rSFFing Sephiroth, you can make a greater case that Mario can't rSFF Samus. But if Sephiroth is stronger than Tifa, then, well, Mario obviously wins because he's above Samus.

Or better yet, just throw everything up in the air. Anything can happen!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If Tifa can rSFF Sephiroth, then I'm pretty sure Mario can rSFF Samus even if Samus is stronger!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."