Lurker > Haste_2

Lopen posted...

I mean he definitely SFFs the others more but yeah I've always wondered why people accept the 2004 number at face value when Crono was strong enough to 53-47 Mario that year and he puts up only slightly better than the number Mario gets on Link in 2002. I guess you can argue 2002 Mario > 2004 Mario by a lot and he's just getting SFFed down to a close to 2004 value, since he did beat Cloud that year, rally/Sunshine release or not, but it's all kinda weird to me.

I don't see anything wrong with Link's score on Crono that year. In 2005 Link was expected to get about the same score on Crono. But I do also think that Mario was stronger in 2002 than he was in '03/'04. I figure Link would have gotten nearly 70% on Mario in '04.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

They have a remix of GRAVITY MAN's theme!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

With regards to some inevitable repeat matches in the loser's bracket...

We've seen repeat matches before. In the case of Pokemon GSC vs. Xenogears, Xenogears won by more in the repeat match after the glitch allowing only registered voters was fixed. Of course, we can't glean anything from it since we know Pokemon GSC obviously was favored by the registered voters anyway.

The 2006 battle royale is another example. Granted, these rematches all happened in consecutive days, so I don't know how relevant these are, either. Still, it's notable that the wins who win are more likely to do better in the rematches. Link fans were increasingly enthusiastic over the first three days of the Battle Royale. Meanwhile, Mario and Sephiroth fans basically said "forget it" and stopped voting. Solid Snake's fans were surprisingly resilient, though, as Snake continued to do fairly well and ended up beating Sephiroth on the third day. To think that a Smash-boosted Snake, on the first day, couldn't compete with a Sephiroth being leeched by Cloud! Things were different back then....

Oh, yeah, and we've saw plenty of rematches in 2007-2009. Is there anything worth mentioning there?

I've heard the idea that the Noble Niners may be stronger because of pent-up strength (excitement of finally seeing these characters). I'm not convinced that will happen. We saw Mario do just fine against Sephiroth in the champions bracket in 2005, even though Sephiroth was waiting all that time. Granted, voters could have been pretty excited about Mario winning the entire bracket, so maybe it's possible that the excitement about Mario's championship cancelled out existing pent-up strength for Sephiroth.

Probably not a single thing I said will be of any help in figuring out how those rematches will go!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Assign something more original than Deoxys-S or Ninjask
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

:-O There is hope after all....
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I would say....

Zelda
Sephiroth
Tifa
Pikachu
Ganondorf
Bowser
Alucard
Auron

Tifa's third (just barely above Pikachu) because... I feel like Luigi is a decent amount above Bowser and Yoshi, given his impressive scores on Frog and Edgeworth.

transience posted...

the mere rumor of Geno being in Smash is probably worth more than Mario RPG already

Wait... I thought the roster for Smash has been 100% confirmed? Unless there's a plan to get Geno into the game at a later time?
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'm thinking maybe....

Zelda
Sephiroth
Pikachu
Tifa
Ganondorf
Bowser
Auron
Alucard
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Why did you have to post this? That's so sad. :_;
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Safeties:

Link - 88%
Mega Man - 55%
Cloud Strife - 63%
Crono - 57%
Solid Snake - 54%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 58%
Samus Aran - 57%
Mario - 55%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I was about to make a topic about this, but I decided I'd better search to see if one existed!

My worst is division 3. I got neither finalist of that division correct. I only got two debated matches correct: Crash/Cecil and Alucard/Yuna. I got a whopping 11 out of 32 points!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Bump. I know all you Luigi/Ryu backers wanted this to purge, but alas... =p

Edit: Wow, I was the only one to bet on Tifa AND Sephiroth....
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Aeris hasn't weakened since 2006 (arguably), just like Tifa.

Zelda's x-stat is probably somewhere around 40% (or a little above that) which is high enough to potentially threaten lower Noble Niners like Sonic or Crono, but probably not someone like Snake or Mario.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Just four. >_> (I should have assumed a big Zelda boost... oops!) Bowser, Auron, Sephiroth, and Pikachu. That really means I only got two out of six debatable division winners!

Got division 8 perfectly, too, but yeah, that's not impressive. My second most accurate division is Division 4 where I only missed Ness vs. 2B.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

BlAcK TuRtLe posted...

Ryu Hayabusa 44.10%
Sub-Zero 43.29%
Magus 42.53%
Rosalina 41.21%

Hmmm, this doesn't quite look right to me, is the thinking that Geralt bandwagoned a bit in the later rounds? I never would have taken Hayabusa over Subby and Magus pre-contest

Yeah, I think there is a good chance that is true. Maybe Magus and Vincent being low on the list could make sense, but Sub-Zero's placement here is definitely off.

If that was a 2002 match, how many people here pick Samus? MAYBE two?

To tell you the honest truth, I would have picked Samus over Mario back in 2002! But back then I didn't know that Mario was that popular and thought he wouldn't be able to touch Cloud, and I thought Samus would be able to contend with Link...
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Man, what happened to FF this year (except for Tifa and Vivi)?

Just gotta nitpick this statement... I don't think anything bad happened to Terra, Aerith, and (now in retrospect) Cecil this year, either! =p
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Lopen, I can see your points about Samus boosting in 2005.

Keep in mind the following... I don't see why Frog has to be underrated in 2005. If Samus x-stat is 45.85% in 2005 (her x-stat being 42.36% in 2004), then, then Ganondorf is at 37% on BL. In 2006 he's only 35% on BL. Also, MC was stronger the next year because of a new game, so basing Frog off of 2006 MC doesn't work. It's better to use 2003 Master Chief or 2005 Liquid Snake, and the average of the two suggests that measuring Frog from 2004 Samus is more legit.

Link only boosted slightly in 2005. Furthermore, Kirby's boost between 2003 and 2005 was mostly gained between 2003 and 2004, assuming Squall 2004 is measured from Squall 2005. Maybe Samus' boosting timeline was more like Kirby's.

Also note that 2007 Samus did equally as well on Cloud, or slightly worse (depends on how you calculate it) as she did in 2004. For Samus to rise after 2004 and then fall again in 2007 would be strange...
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

50% on Tifa and Sephiroth parlay
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Got stuff going tomorrow so I guess i'd better get my best estimates in...

Tifa - 52%
Sephiroth - 58%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

It took me long enough to realize, but... apparently TIfa's not the only FF7 character that hasn't dropped since 2006. It seems Aeris hasn't dropped one bit, either, since then. GO AERIS! (Aeris >>> Tifa)

Geralt just cut into Auron's votes twice. Yikes. I wouldn't be surprised if Auron is under 52% by the time this is over.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

So... Shovel Knight > Garrus? That match would have been a sight to see.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Dang. I should have realized that Magus couldn't be far above guys like Simon Belmont. At least my 59% prediction isn't killer high... most everyone predicted at least 57% for Auron.

Don't be fooled by Bowser beating Kirby. I still think it's Luigi > Bowser > Yoshi.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

2005: Ness over CJ.

2007: Taking Ryu to get to round 4 as well as Master Chief to get to the semi's, though I expected him to get 2nd place (not first) the round before.

2008: I didn't participate in the guru, so I can't remember for sure, but I believe I picked Mewtwo to make it to round 4.

And... that's about it as far as major upsets go. Sadly. Granted, I'm not much of a risk-taker.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Zelda - 65.5%
Auron - 59%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

It's possible, I suppose.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Change

40% on Zelda
20% on Auron
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Woot, I'm finally over $100,000!

Let's try it... 50% parlay on Zelda and Auron
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I think master is talking about Samus. If you remove Samus' suit arm, you will see a human arm underneath.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

The Belmonts being in Smash probably not only boosted Simon and Richter, but anything related to Castlevania. That would include Alucard.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Here are my thoughts on the matter. I think Bowser has the edge over Kirby in 2010. Kirby's 46% on Sonic was good, but I think Bowser's 54% on Sora was slightly more impressive at the time. (but it's very debatable) 2013, though, I've got to give a slight edge to Kirby that year. He got like 47% on Seph, while Bowser got 40% on...Sonic? However, those were 3-way polls. I'm guessing that Kirby does much better than Bowser in 3/4-way polls. So basically, Bowser's always been equal to or greater than Kirby in 1-on-1 contests.

As far as this year, ALL of the data pointed to Kirby beating Bowser. Even Kirby's worst looking performance (against Isaac) suggested that KIrby was stronger than ever and capable of beating a Bowser who didn't appear to be much stronger than in past contests.

Was it rSFF? Maybe. It's possible that Luigi rSFFed Kirby in 2006, considering KIrby was higher in the x-stats in 2005, even after adjusting Bowser's division. However, KIrby's 2005 x-stat was derived through Kirby vs. Bowser, which was an SFF match in the first place, so it's hard to make a case that rSFF took place in Luigi vs. Kirby.

But what if KIrby "SFFed" Phoenix (Phoenix crumbled in a poll against Mario before) and that Kirby actually should have gotten, say, 63% on Phoenix? With this in mind, if you put Bowser and Kirby equal to each other, 2B gets an expected 56% on Phoenix. And that means Ness gets about 52% on Phoenix or 53% on Ike. That seems very pretty reasonable, and thus Bowser > Kirby seems very possible. Daaaaaang. I firmly believed that Kirby overperformed against Phoenix last round before this match happened. If only I had done the calculations, I wouldn't have made that really dumb Oracle prediction that Kirby gets 54% on Bowser. Argh!!! That's gonna hurt.

In my opinion.... Bowser's probably not rSFFing Kirby, but he probably is SFFing KIrby.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Bowser takes the lead! But I wonder if he can hang on? My bracket would like that, but not my Oracle pick.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Alucard - 53%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Alucard - 54%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I'd better not do any more parlays unless I feel good about both matches...

40% on Alucard
20% on Kirby
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I can't WAIT for Ganondorf to get disintegrated by Link followed by losing to a cutesy rat. Serves him right for beating my buddy Vivi!

Nobody should complain about MMX losing. If MMX really deserved the win, he should have been popular enough to win the match by a margin that rallies cannot overcome.

I would take Tifa or MMX to beat Bowser or Yoshi with like 55%...so Luigi needs to be a bit above them to be able to take out Tifa, in my opinion. But Luigi's performances have looked a lot better than his fellow Mario rivals, so Luigi could definitely win it. I think Tifa still has the slight advantage, though.

Lopen posted...

Luigi will 54-46 Tifa book it

Only if his match against Tails was not an overperformance! And similarly, if Kirby/Phoenix was not an overperformance, Kirby is beating Bowser with 58-60%....
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Zelda - 67%
Auron - 59%

Tifa - 52%
Sephiroth - 59%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Come on, Tifa. Fight back. I would love to have it be a nail biter that comes down to the last few updates...(But I still want MMX to win in the end)

Regarding tomorrow's match, I can't help but wonder if Vivi could win. Ganondorf's victory on Dante was impressive, but we just don't know where Dante is at this year. He gets an expected 52% on Chun Li and 58% on Spyro the Dragon. What if if we're dealing with a weaker Dante? DK got 56% on Leon Kennedy, on the other hand. Ganondorf winning with 52-53% would put Tidus and Spyro nearly on the same level, I believe... weird.

It would be amazing to see Vivi pull it off, but I'm expecting Ganondorf to win without much trouble, with 52% at least...

What about Zero beating PIkachu? Erm... if Yoshi is worth less than 55% on Wario, then Zero has a serious shot at winning! (okay, so there's NO way Yoshi only gets 55% on Wario, so forget that I ever brought this up, hrhrhr....)
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Ganondorf
Pikachu
Alucard
Kirby
Zelda
Auron
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Oh, wait. Whoops. Change that to 50% parlay on Ganondorf and Pikachu.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Only two matches per day in round 4?

30% parlay on Ganondorf and PIkachu
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Pikachu - 57%
Alucard - 53%
Kirby - 54%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I wouldn't put MMX is on MM's level, but I would certainly put MMX above Zero's level. I see no reason to change my estimations on MMX (37% on 2010 Link) in this match considering that I would take Tifa over Zero easily.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

LeonhartFour posted...

also Ryu finishing the fight after he was the first character to put a legit scare into a Noble Niner (which nobody remembers because it happened in the middle of the night) would be great

Wow, I forgot about Ryu beating Sonic overnight clear back in 2004... man, trends were so much more pronounced back in those days. Even more extreme than that, Kefka was beating Knuckles overnight in the same contest, but Knuckles ultimately won with 57.43%.

Maybe Kirby overperformed on Phoenix? Phoenix really got hammered in a match with Mario before. But I really do think Luigi is overperforming on Tails.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Please continue to suck, Ryu, please continue to suck.... that way, Vivi has a better shot against Ganondorf.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

The matches yesterday make it seem like Kirby is going beat Bowser with 60% next round.

Today I picked the wrong winner for two matches yesterday, picking both Bayonetta and Fox. I'm probably dropping out of the top ten, then.
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

I have only one thing to say about today's matches..

YES! Go Aerith!
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Luigi - 65%
Mega Man X - 51%
Sephiroth - 64%
Ryu - 69%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

30% parlay on Luigi and Ryu
20% on Tifa
10% on Sephiroth
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Ganondorf - 52%
Pikachu - 59%

Alucard - 55%
Kirby - 57%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Zelda - 55%
Fox McCloud - 52%

Bayonetta - 53%
Auron - 55%
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

CHANGE:

Zelda
Fox McCloud
Bayonetta
Auron
Luigi
BANK
Sephiroth
Ryu
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."