Lurker > LusterSoldier

Big Bob posted...

I wonder if tomorrow's poll is "Which SSBM newcomer is your favorite?"

That won't be tomorrow's poll.

Tomorrow's poll will be "Have you ever gone to the midnight release event for a new game?"
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Still one more match up for grabs.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Ngamer64 posted...

Welcome to RUNBACK WEEK at gamefaqs.com. Off to a hot start!

Sir, that's gamefaqs.gamespot.com
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

red13n posted...

Samus needs a zero suit picture to get it closer.

That would probably hurt her more than it helps her.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

For those who don't normally vote in the regular polls that often, we have this very interesting poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7435-
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Zero
Crono
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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The projection based on Zelda/Sonic could be on the low side if it turns out that the sprite pictures actually hurt Zelda slightly. We'll be able to use Snake/Zelda and Sonic/Snake to determine how much sprites actually hurt Zelda against Sonic.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Pikachu doing well in this poll is surprising too given that most people probably got their first exposure to Pikachu through Pokemon, but maybe the Pokemon craze at the time could have influenced some people into playing with Pikachu when they got the original Smash Bros.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

TheOneAboveAll posted...

If this is a proxy for Samus/Link, we might have one heck of a Grand Final coming up.

In all seriousness, this poll will probably tell us a ton about Link, Mario, and Samus's strengths and where they come from. If we can figure out how to read it right.

This poll seems worthless in judging character strength because we currently have results such as Mario getting more than doubled by Samus happening in the poll and Ness beating Pikachu.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Favorite "original Smash Bros." character poll today:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7435-
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

3 new matches have been confirmed:

Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Solid Snake -
Samus Aran vs. Tifa Lockheart -

Zelda vs. Mario -
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

GuessMyUserName posted...

wasn't the first match on Let's Go Pikachu's release date?

No, that was on the day of the Zero/Pikachu match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

The rematch of Crono/Bowser is showing us the Dapper Bowser picture did not hurt Bowser in the first match. The result of the rematch is pretty similar to the first match.

I'm actually interested in seeing a ZSS picture for Samus in the rematch with Tifa. I want to see a battle of the boobs match, plus it will help us confirm how much the ZSS picture will hurt Samus today. ZSS in 2006 hurt Samus badly because the ZSS design was revealed not too long before the match happened, so very few people recognized ZSS as Samus.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

LOLIAmAnAlt posted...

Pikachu only won the first time because of double votes.

Pikachu also got a rally as well. Both characters were rallied, but Pikachu had the bigger rally. I also estimated that there were about 800 rallied votes and that Mega Man would have won without the rally.

I thought Mega Man would win a rematch as I did not think the rallies would show up a second time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Camilla
Peach
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Haste_2 posted...

For the rematches, Mega Man looks worse and Bowser looks better in the pictures. Yet Mega Man is doing better and Bowser's doing about the same as last time. That's more evidence that popular characters aren't that pic-sensitive, as long as it's not something completely different like Sprite Snake.

For the Samus/Tifa rematch, I'd be very interested to see Samus with a ZSS picture to give us a TJF match. It would also help us determine how much ZSS would hurt Samus. I wouldn't expect ZSS to hurt Samus as badly as we saw in 2006, because the ZSS design was revealed not too long before that match happened, so very few voters were familiar with the ZSS design.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Solid Snake - 57.74%
Samus Aran - 58.26%
Link - 60.81%
Mario - 56.14%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Haste_2 posted...

So far the vote totals are a lot lower than MM/Pika and Crono/Bowser part 1.

The original matches both happened on separate days, so you have to make sure you're comparing the vote totals from today's matches to those of their original matches.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

creativename posted...

But dont the results so far indicate the registered users are more hardcore Nintendo fans?

I thought non-Nintendo characters did better with anonymous voters outside of rallies, especially Square characters. Was I getting the wrong impression?

Anonymous voters do tend to favor non-Nintendo characters more than Nintendo characters, but it was quite interesting that they seemed to favor Samus in a match featuring 2 Nintendo characters.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

squexa posted...

Does the Anonymous voterbase also favor Crono?

Yes. Last time, Crono got 54.28% with registered users and 55.94% with anonymous users.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Lopen posted...

If anything this year proves without a shadow of a doubt (through Seph/Tifa or Mario/Samus) that rSFF exists, which throws out the primary defense of Mario beating Samus which was "Mario would not have been able to SFF her if he was weaker"

This most likely proves the existence of rSFF:

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

I thought the stats would be similar to Tifa/Sephiroth with little difference between both groups of users, but looks like I was wrong. Mario had the benefit of being the overall bracket favorite to boost his support with registered users, so it's quite possible that Samus could have won in a match with nothing at stake.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

_SecretSquirrel posted...

Mega Man vs. Pikachu also suffered from lower votals due to it being the first day back. It's possible some of these Mega Man voters missed the first match.

The match was on pace for less than 28000 votes at one point, but the rally helped out the vote totals and I even think that the later part of the match had some voters that didn't yet know that the contest was back again.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2

Zelda vs. Sonic the Hedgehog
Registered Vote Result:
Zelda - 5224 (56.33%)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 4050 (43.67%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Zelda - 5762 (56.66%)
Sonic the Hedgehog - 4407 (43.34%)

Samus Aran vs. Mario
Registered Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 4398 (47.43%)
Mario - 4875 (52.57%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Samus Aran - 5154 (50.68%)
Mario - 5015 (49.32%)

Not much difference on Zelda/Sonic, and the registered users preferred Sonic slightly more than Zelda.

Mario performed about 3% better with registered users and Samus outright won the anonymous user vote. The bracket prediction stats for both bracket contests suggests that Mario was the outright favorite over Samus, so bracket voting would have played a factor in Mario winning the registered user vote. I don't know if these voting splits actually proves the existence of rSFF or not.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

3rd vote, 1st for Bowser
3rd vote, 1st for Mega Man
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Match pictures for today's matches:

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/pikachu-f-ange-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/mega-f-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-f-moon-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-f-ange-3.png

https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/pikachu-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/mega-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/crono-b-ulti-3.png
https://gamefaqs.akamaized.net/images/x/user/bowser-b-ange-3.png
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Crono - 54.81%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Mega Man - 50.46%
Crono - 55.21%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Not_Wylvane posted...

Kinda curious to see what the registered/anonymous split will be for Samus/Mario. It'd explain a lot if Samus was crushing the registered votes.

Probably something similar to Tifa/Sephiroth which was nearly identical with both registered/anonymous users.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Moltar is currently looking for people to sign up for a Contest Analysis Crew Guest write-up for the round 2 Losers rematches in this topic:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77251014
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Hopefully we can get some bonus matches after the contest ends. My idea was for some bonus matches involving only Noble Niners that have never faced each other in a 1v1 match. That requirement limits the pool of potential matches to the following:

Cloud/Mega Man
Crono/Samus
Crono/Sephiroth
Mario/Sonic
Mega Man/Samus
Sephiroth/Sonic

Mario/Sonic is the obvious match that most people want. I'd also choose Crono/Sephiroth to get a better read on Sephiroth's strength. Cloud/Mega Man could technically happen in the Losers bracket if everything goes right.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Legends and Loser Bracket, Round 2

Link vs. Pikachu
Registered Vote Result:
Link - 6405 (67.19%)
Pikachu - 3127 (32.81%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Link - 7319 (70.65%)
Pikachu - 3041 (29.35%)

Cloud Strife vs. Crono
Registered Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5456 (57.24%)
Crono - 4076 (42.76%)

Anonymous Vote Result:
Cloud Strife - 5782 (55.81%)
Crono - 4579 (44.19%)

While the Link/Ganondorf match really didn't give us too much information on how registered voters feel about Link, we're getting a much better idea in this match with Pikachu doing about 3.5% better with registered users. Traditional Nintendo has generally had an edge with registered users over Pokemon in this contest, such as we saw with Charizard/Bowser. Pikachu seems to be an exception to the rule as Pikachu did better with registered users in the match against Yoshi.

Cloud did about 1.5% better with registered users in this match, which was a surprise given all things Chrono Trigger has a pretty strong early vote. Though as we've seen many times before, the early vote is not indicative of how the final registered/anonymous user results will turn out.

Extra info and past results - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

LusterSoldier posted...

Pikachu
Cloud Strife

Not sure why I even picked those, but I'd like to change those picks.

My picks for Losers Round 2 + first match of Round 3:

Mega Man
Crono
Solid Snake
Samus Aran
Link
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

tennisboy213 posted...

Zelda and Samus both exploding

have the hentai rallies started

I did a search on Reddit and couldn't find any hentai rallies yet.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

1st vote, 1st for Mario
2nd vote, 2nd for Zelda


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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Samus started cutting into Mario's lead during the final 2 minutes of the board vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Samus/Mario was about 50/50 for almost 1 minute, then Mario starts pulling away.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Zero
Alucard
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Zelda
Mario
Pikachu
Cloud Strife
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

@Master_Moltar

Are we still using this topic for sign-ups on later matches after Samus/Mario?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

transience posted...

yeah, we'll need to see if we get a legit mario result to adjust sephiroth through because yikes ryu and frog

One way to get that adjustment would be if Samus beats Mario, which would give us Mario/Tifa in the Loser bracket. And I don't have much hope that Samus pulls out the upset.

As for getting a much better indirect measure of Samus/Mario than using an unreliable Tifa/Seph match, Snake would have to run through the Loser bracket while defeating Samus and Cloud to face Mario.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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Zelda - 56.43%
Mario - 57.24%
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

MetalmindStats posted...

That's a skewed extrapolation from Bacondorf, to be fair.

From what I've seen, Bacondorf appears to be a 5-6% penalty on Ganondorf. I think it's entirely reasonable with an ideal picture, Mega Man gets around 54-55% on Ganondorf (probably closer to 55%).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!

Thought Cloud would have been hurt by sprites today, but this match shows that he might not even be getting hurt at all. We'll see in their Losers rematch, assuming Crono can get past the winner of Mega Man/Pikachu.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ!