I dont see trump winning again. Of course, I thought so in 2016, but I still stand by it.
He won the last election by a razor thin margin(100K votes in PA, WI, and MI). he basically needed a bunch of swing states and we won most of them by a hair.
Since his approval rating isnt so high, and a lot of people who voted for him now dislike him, I dont know where his votes are going to come from to repeat again. though i admit in 2 years something could happen that could make people like him. basically not counting that out.
That's the thing. I think approval ratings are about as reliable as the media saying Hillary had a 98% chance or whatever it was
But thats a double edged sword there. If you cant trust online polls or news media, what can you trust? To what extent does the public go to to make sure the information theyre seeking is correct and honest? Surely, not from the original speaker like Trump, because we all know he has a large bias against all news media except from Fox News, who also has a large bias against liberals.
If you want an accurate, right down the middle reporting with no bias or agenda influencing the article or report, you might be out of luck because most everyone has a bias of some kind.
That's pretty much why I always just wait and see what happens without any expectations. I'll read the news and keep up with events and what not but when it comes to statistics like that involving politics, I dont put much stock in it