LightningStrikes posted... I have been summoned! Alas I need to now have CE in my posting history lol but it is what it is!
Yeah the Scottish government stuff is pretty interesting. Its quite the gamble by the SNP as there will now be a confidence vote that is going to be extremely close. Assuming nobody jumps ship the opposition has it by a single vote but theres a wrinkle. Now Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems are all voting against the government of course, and the Greens have indicated they will as well. However, there is one MSP called Ash Regan who was elected for the SNP and even stood for the leadership last year but left for a small nationalist party called Alba (the reason being shes a transphobic crackpot and wanted to make a big deal out of that by defecting). Now if she votes with the government, itll be a tie, the Presiding Officer will break the tie and presumably vote with the government. It seems she has said she hasnt made her mind up yet so the SNP will presumably be lobbying her pretty hard.
Now what is very apparent is a recent rightwards shift in the SNP, which is in part due to them trying to keep their big conservative faction in check. The SNP are basically split down the middle between the left-leaning progressives usually from Scotlands central belt and the conservatives usually from the rural areas, all united by support of independence. They seem to be about equal in number, though the left-leaning faction has been dominant for years and years. So my assessment is that the SNP are facing the same problem as parties like Sinn Fein in Ireland where they have two diametrically opposed factions tearing the party apart.
If it does go through it will most likely lead to an election with Labour as the big winners as theyve peeled off both moderate unionists from the Tories and Lib Dems and left-leaning nationalists who are fed up with the SNP. Of course paradoxically this could hurt Labour in the general election due some time this year by making them spend money on a whole other campaign. So yeah, quite an interesting situation!
My knowledge of Scottish politics isn't the best, but from what I know I'm inclined to think Regan will fall in line - the SNP knew who they would need onside when deciding to piss off the greens and presumably knew they were willing to offer something she'd like. Surely needing to appeal specifically to a mega-transphobe will not have any repercussions. I didn't know Sinn Fein had a similar split re: the more conservative side, but it tracks. Plaid Cymru have a pretty conservative voter base of rural Welsh speakers and I assume it's a similar case for Sinn Fein?
Best case for Labour is probably no election and not having to run another campaign, maybe less for the costs reasoning and more because they wouldn't want the unpopularity that comes with holding power while the UK is running like shit, especially right before a general election which could see them return in Scotland. Although I'm not sure they would win enough to be the dominant party even with the SNP such a mess.