Board 8 > Hearthstone Discussion Topic: Journey to Un'Goro

(+) Yeah! (+)

You know an arena match is going to be...interesting, when their first turn is coin hero power as warrior.
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I just went 2-13 trying to get two wins with decks that should not have lost that many matches.

Camden posted...

Where the hell are these decks? 90% of the time they finish on turn four for me, and the other 10% is turn three or earlier.

Turn 1: quest
Turn 2: dagger
Turn 3: play something, bounce it.
Turn 4: play something, bounce it, play it, bounce it
Turn 5: play it a 4th time, prep, Crystal Core

I had the Murloc quest and a bunch of cheap Paladin quests I didn't want to clear, so I took a murloc shaman deck (sans the quest) into wild.

I may have taken it literally from rank 25 to 6. It's stupidly fun. You auto-lose to Quest Warrior and have a bad matchup against Pirate Warrior and Egg Druid, but you destroy the Quest Priests and Secret Mages, and every time I see someone play Unite the Murlocs in the mirror I laugh because I know I just got a free win.

Wedge Antilles posted...

You know an arena match is going to be...interesting, when their first turn is coin hero power as warrior.

Speaking of, I once looked at my arena mulligan (going first) and said to myself "Okay, I'm gonna keep the Cat Trick because I know I'm going to mulligan into Ancient Anomaly, and then my opponent (a Paladin) is going to coin-hero power, and then I'll blow him out so badly that he immediately scoops."

And then that literally happened.
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Someone better at math than me, what are the odds of getting the same weapon four times in a row from Molten Blade? Because the game didn't want to offer me anything but Jade Claws.
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There are 22 non-Molten Blade weapons in standard, and I believe Molten Blade cannot roll Molten Blade, so the odds are (1/22)^3, or .0000939

(Note that it is cubed, not to the fourth, because basically no matter what the first weapon is you are still on a "legal" 4-times-in-a-row sequence)
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Camden posted...

Someone better at math than me, what are the odds of getting the same weapon four times in a row from Molten Blade? Because the game didn't want to offer me anything but Jade Claws.

it's kind of hard to count how many weapons are in standard right now because for some stuff like Sulfuras I'm not really sure if the Molten Blade can turn into it or not. anyway the number I came up with is 23 but keep in mind it might be slightly higher or lower based on what Molten Blade can actually/can't actually turn into.

1/23 = About a 4.3% chance

(4.3%)^4 = 0.0000000012% chance

something like that. I just tried to do it without a good calculator so it might be wrong. but yeah it's a very tiny chance.
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dowolf posted...

(Note that it is cubed, not to the fourth, because basically no matter what the first weapon is you are still on a "legal" 4-times-in-a-row sequence)

oh I messed that up too
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MariaTaylor posted...

(4.3%)^4 = 0.0000000012% chance

You said 1.2 * 10^-9.
It is actually 3.4 * 10^-6.

Off by three orders of magnitude there~

yeah I just checked again with the same calculator. it gives me a different answer when I do (answer)^2 vs (answer) * (answer) so that affected my result. I have no idea how or why.

doing it again I was able to get the same answer as you but... either way it's still wrong so I guess the point is somewhat moot. all I learned was to throw this calculator in the garbage!
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I stopped taking math after grade 11, all these numbers are going way over my head.
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I think arena has gotten a lot easier since Ungoro.

Small sample size, but in my three runs so far I've gone 9 (Priest), 8 (Druid), and I'm 6-0 with a pretty garbo Mage right now. The upper ranks are just as hard, but getting to the break even points seems much more obtainable now.
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My arena numbers have dropped quite a bit since Ungoro. Down to 4.31 average right now.
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9-1 now. Around 7 is where I start to hit my wall, but I'd be 10-0 right now if not for a scumbag rouge finding lethal off of a swashburglar.
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like, besides the 2 glyphs and the meteor/flamestrike this deck doesn't have much going for it

any yes, pagle was the best of the three choices
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I wish my garbage decks looked like that.
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It's nothing crazy but the card quality is pretty high. The only cards I'd consider below average are Pagle, the pantry spider, and the menagerie magicians. But that's really just a testament to how good mage is.
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Camden posted...

I wish my garbage decks looked like that.

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cho and dark nat

11-2, final boss time
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riparino

all three losses to rogue
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i think the arena wants you to build a quest druid deck
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yeah, well arena is not my real dad

it can't tell me what to do
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Coin
Counterfeit Coin
Counterfeit Coin
VanCleef

Some games you're just not meant to win.
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My problem with arena right now is that I keep choosing Hunter whenever it's available, and then Tar Elemental makes me cry >_>

I could learn my lesson, or I could SMorc my days away. Choices...
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My problem in arena is that like 40% of all decks I play are mage and unless I'm a mage with a really good deck I like... only have an average shot at winning. I had a 4-3 run where ALL 7 opponents were a mage. How does that happen.
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Sometimes you have a great day climbing, and sometimes you lose 6 in a row, capped off with your opponent using Menagerie Warden on their Tyrantus after completing the quest.

Today was the latter.
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Got to rank 10 at least which was the goal. Had some tough matchups early on and some bad draws, but got some power plays with a few games when it counted like...

Mimic podding into prep with Vanish, Coin, and 2 Swashburglers in hand. Then the next turn drawing the next prep >.>

or

Having an opening hand of Shadow Step X 2 - > Swashburgler X2 - > draw into prep. >.>

Or even

Not playing the quest until turn 8. But when I do have enough cards just to OTK from hand.

I also added in Barnes to the deck as like a test. I want to try the elemental version too but I still don't feel comfortable enough with the vanish list.
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UltimaterializerX posted...

KokoroAkechi posted...

My problem in arena is that like 40% of all decks I play are mage and unless I'm a mage with a really good deck I like... only have an average shot at winning. I had a 4-3 run where ALL 7 opponents were a mage. How does that happen.

Arena needs to be pick-your-own-class instead of only giving you 3. If everyone picks Mage, that's Blizzard's fault.

I'd actually be interested if they implemented a system where Blizzard removes your most recently picked class from the choices in arena. I don't think anything else is really needed or even appropriate since there is also a couple of classes that are pure trash in arena and I would not wish it on any of them to have it forced on them.
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Well the central problem continues to be that they are terrible at class balance. They made one attempt with warrior and did OK, but now it's back in the dumpster. Mage again got the best set of new cards, and for some reason they decided to give rogue two OP hard removals. Meanwhile you print crap like Iron Hide, and then make it a common? Yes, the disparate quality of the hero powers means classes will never be even, but it doesn't have to be this bad. It doesn't seem like anyone in development is even paying attention to one of their game modes.
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CybrMonkey posted...

Well the central problem continues to be that they are terrible at class balance. They made one attempt with warrior and did OK, but now it's back in the dumpster. Mage again got the best set of new cards, and for some reason they decided to give rogue two OP hard removals. Meanwhile you print crap like Iron Hide, and then make it a common? Yes, the disparate quality of the hero powers means classes will never be even, but it doesn't have to be this bad. It doesn't seem like anyone in development is even paying attention to one of their game modes.

Again, this is Blizzard we're talking about. They are not capable of making good games.
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I still haven't heard exactly why Taunt/Ward is a bad mechanic in a game where you can't actively declare blockers.

Don't get me wrong, Taunt Warrior is obnoxious, but that's bad design of cards around the mechanic, not bad design of the mechanic itself.
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Outside of one game, I have literally seen nothing but counterpicks for four days now.
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trdl23 posted...

I still haven't heard exactly why Taunt/Ward is a bad mechanic in a game where you can't actively declare blockers.

Don't get me wrong, Taunt Warrior is obnoxious, but that's bad design of cards around the mechanic, not bad design of the mechanic itself.

Taunt cards are almost always a 2 for 1, and in a game where you only get 30 cards it's complete trash design. It should be a one time instance like divine shield or stealth is.
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you can stop playing at any point, you know
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I usually do after a week or so. This is shit.
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trdl23 4/18/2017 12:50:12 PM#484
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FFDragon 4/18/2017 1:05:17 PM#488

Someone must be having fun.

Current Hunter arena run, I've played four Shamans and seen Volcano cast 9 times so far, I think. I just lost a game because I had a Bittertide Hydra up and the opponent played two Volcano to kill me. Volcano is the MVP this run and I'm not even playing Shaman.

Edit: 6-3, for dealing with all of that volcanic activity I was rewarded with the Mage quest. A legendary I actually wanted, a very rare sight indeed.
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It's hard to play with the Mage quest when you don't have a single Doomsayer or Ice Block, one Primordial Glyph and one Cabalists Tome. Not looking to spend up to 2,400 dust...
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so Un'goro has been out for a little while and does anyone else feel like for the first time in a long time there is actually somewhat of a place for a control meta? I don't think they are tier 1 but both Control Paladin and Spell Priest are viable decks right now which seems amazing when I think about how hard of a time they have been having for the last like... year or more.
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Quest Warrior is a T1 deck, so I expect to see some more control come out of things.
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The current meta doesn't work well for control decks. PW kills you too fast and quests put you on a time limit. You can't control a rogue once he finishes his quest and starts throwing down 5/5's like crazy. Especially when he can burst you down from nearly full by charging with a 5/5, bouncing, and doing it again repeatedly in one turn.

I'm maining midrange paladin and having fun for the most part.

But I'm roping every quest rogue and PW from here on out.
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Lot of the Hall of Fame/rotations hit combo decks hard and Jade Druid is too slow to get going against their playstyle (They still have finishers around turn 8 or 9/10

Like Freeze Mage can't completely OTK you in one turn, for example. Or Miracle Rogue can't conceal their Auctioneer. Renolock ran Leeroy/Faceless sometimes or Jaraxxus others and that was a nightmare for control decks.
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Assuming I craft all the cards, what gets removed from this list ideally? Mana Bind is the obvious choice, but I left it in the list because I was tinkering around with a Medivh's Valet version earlier and I was getting more use out of that free card from my opponent than whatever I was usually getting from Shimmering Tempest. No one plays around it so I almost always get a good card from it. The only reason I lean towards keeping Tempest is because I can see needing that baby body occasionally.

Cabalist's Tome probably could be a singleton, but then I'm not sure what the last card to get cut would be here if those three get cut.

2x Babbling Book
1x Open The Waygate
2x Arcanologist
2x Doomsayer
2x Frostbolt
2x Primordial Glyph
2x Shimmering Tempest
2x Sorcerer's Apprentice
2x Arcane Intellect
2x Coldlight Oracle
2x Frost Nova
2x Ice Barrier
2x Ice Block
2x Mana Bind
2x Molten Reflection
2x Cabalist's Tome
2x Blizzard
1x Archmage Antonidas
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I've been playing more silence priest.

I think it's better than tier 3.
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