Board 8 > 2017 BYIG Guru Challenge- Results, Discussion and Eliminations (Part One)

(+) Yeah! (+)

Guru entries are now locked and loaded for the Best Year In Gaming contest. We had nearly 150 brackets entered this year which is pretty astonishing given what a weird and small competition this is going to be, so good job Board 8! The main page for this year's Guru is here, please check out your entry and post right away if there's any mistakes on your bracket, we want to get any issues ironed out sooner rather than later so we can start calculating eliminations and who's in line to win if things go according to plan.

http://thengamer.com/guru/

Clicking a name will display their bracket, you can sort by any of the headers, and clicking Matchup Stats from the top bar will take you here

http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php

That's how many brackets we have taking each year, clicking Who Picked Whom takes you to the exact breakdown for that match.

The median entry this season took 4 risks, the median tiebreaker is right around 910,000 total votes.

Reminder that this year's winner earns:

- two weeks in everyone's sig
- a character for 2018's All Fictional Battle we all will nominate (or Game or whatever it ends up being)
- $60 to buy a new game, courtesy of yoblazer

Good luck!


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Hey NGamer - Any idea how many true Gurus still remain that have entered every single Guru contest?
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cyko posted...

Hey NGamer - Any idea how many true Gurus still remain that have entered every single Guru contest?

Ummm not exactly, but there were only 31 entries for the very first one (Games 2004) so it shouldn't be too impossible to find out. We can start by narrowing down to just those that competed in both 2004 and 2017 which already gets us to 12...

1stUltimaterializerX
2ndChichiriMuyo
9thHaste2
14thRingworm
16thswirldude
17thcharmander
18thXuxon
19thZ1mZum
23rdNgamer
25thcyko
27thDomaDragoon
31stTeam Rocket Elite


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I am fairly sure I missed one or maybe two of the earlier ones when I had computer problems. Definitely entered most though.
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I might look into that we i wake up in the morning.
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Haste2 - missed Characters 2010
Ringworm - missed Series 2006
Xuxon - missed Series 2006

So final answer, there are 9 True Gurus:
UltimaterializerX
ChichiriMuyo
swirldude
charmander
Ngamer
DomaDragoon
Team Rocket Elite
Z1mZum
cyko


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Has Lopen ever had so few upsets in a bracket?
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And the only reason I didn't miss this contest is because my contest senses were tingling.
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Funny thing about the true guru thing is I've participated in every contest but for the first few years I thought the gurus were like, special people who had to be chosen to participate or something. I dunno, I was a stupid teenager.
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What does the status Erect mean
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also why does it say "<username's> GotD Guru Entry"
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PumpkinCoach was eliminated by ffmasterjose after the 1st day. Don't think there are any eliminations for today's matches but I'll check for tomorrow's.
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Oxbridge posted...

PumpkinCoach was eliminated by ffmasterjose after the 1st day. Don't think there are any eliminations for today's matches but I'll check for tomorrow's.

thanks, added to Guru list
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I've managed to find 1 elimination for the 1985/1987 match, there may be more but I can't be bothered to look harder for any more. Pretty sure there's no eliminations for 1995/1986

If 1987 wins

hylianknight and pyresword are eliminated by Master Moltar

If 1985 wins

Master Moltar is eliminated by hylianknight and pyresword
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spooky96 posted...

What does the status Erect mean

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I'm sorry but they should have covered that in health class.
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Could I be listed as Dilated Chemist, por favor.
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So is there a way to find out if anyone has a duplicate bracket to mine?
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I just looked at every bracket from someone who had the same number of risks as me.
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pyresword posted...

I just looked at every bracket from someone who had the same number of risks as me.

So did I. I'm alone.
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I assumed I shared a bracket with multiple people because I only have 2 risks, but it looks like the only other person with the same bracket as me is Whitelens, and, assuming his tiebreaker is correct there, I'll win if my results come out, which is good to know!
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It's a lot easier to determine when you have a unique winner. I get eliminated singularly when 1991 loses. Assuming it makes it to the 1998 match, though, I will laugh when I have the potential to eliminate everyone left all at once. (Okay, maybe not the 2001 pickers, and the field will be down to a max of like 6 at that point anyway, but still.)

I'm on the opposite side of the spectrum. Pretty sure I'm already effectively out seeing as I have the same bracket as hylianknight, but he has a much more reasonable tiebreaker than me based on yesterday.

We're both gonna be eliminated tomorrow anyways though so it doesn't matter
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pyresword posted...

I'm on the opposite side of the spectrum. Pretty sure I'm already effectively out seeing as I have the same bracket as hylianknight, but he has a much more reasonable tiebreaker than me based on yesterday.

That's gotta be depressing.

azuarc posted...

That's gotta be depressing.

I have the same bracket as six other Gurus, all of whom have more reasonable tiebreakers than me LOL

It's amazing to consider that a perfect bracket gets me - probably at best - seventh place.

Speaking of which... I can't remember, but have we ever actually had a perfect bracket in these contests? My initial hunch is that either Villains, Series, or Rivals would have produced one, but I can't remember.
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oh wow i'm surprised that my bracket is unique, i figured a contest this small at least one of the other 2 risk brackets was the same as mine. now i can invest, let's go uhhh 2000 and 2005 apparently!
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I have a unique bracket... Not picking 1998 to win helps with that though.

I just took another look at 85 and 87 in the bracket, I still feel pretty confident about taking 87. Its stacked, while 85 only really has SMB, granted thats a heavy hitter enough by itself.

Hoping for not a complete blowout on that one. 95 is gonna wreck face.
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my bracket is unique despite only 2 upsets

2005 > 2003 and 1996 > 1997
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Looking at some of my upsets I'm not sure what I was thinking at the time
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My tiebreaker (877k ish I think?) is bracketed by identical brackets with 870k and 900k, so I'm not too optimistic about first place even if I have a perfect!

...though all of those are looking pretty high based on these votals
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My 6 risk bracket is unique in the guru, which is good because my 1.5m tiebreaker is waaaay too high

Lopen's seems to be closest to me, but he has 3 more risks. One of us will eliminate the other in round 1, I think
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Alright I'm not hearing anyone say there's mistakes in their brackets so I'll send out those csv files in a little bit.
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I regret so much picking 2005 > 2003... But I guess it compensates with 1994 > 1991 being a nice upset pick.

Not so sure about the tiebreaker, but I guess it will sadly be lower than the 910,000 median.
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@Ngamer64

My username is still listed on the Guru site incorrectly. The correct username should be "Luster Soldier" (without the quotation marks).
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CSV files have been mailed out, hopefully our experts will be able to determine some eliminations soon!
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CaptainOfCrush posted...

azuarc posted...

That's gotta be depressing.

Speaking of which... I can't remember, but have we ever actually had a perfect bracket in these contests? My initial hunch is that either Villains, Series, or Rivals would have produced one, but I can't remember.

Series and Rivals produced perfect brackets, the top villains bracket was 1 point off being perfect
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Got my program up and running, here's what it spit out for the current matches:

Elims for a 1995+1985 win:
BlAcK TuRtLe by PrinceKaro
Master Moltar by pyresword, hylianknight
Haste by HaRRicH

Elims for a 1995+1987 win:
pyresword by Master Moltar
hylianknight by Master Moltar

Elims for a 1986+1985 win:
spooky by Shoxfan11
BlAcK TuRtLe by PrinceKaro
Master Moltar by pyresword, hylianknight
Haste by HaRRicH
ctesjbuvf by Tsunami
Lockes Ragnarok by Ngamer

Elims for a 1986+1987 win:
pyresword by Master Moltar
HaRRicH by Haste
cyko by ZeldaTPLink
SSBM_Guy by ZeldaTPLink
hylianknight by Master Moltar
Shoxfan11 by ffmasterjose
PrinceKaro by BlAcK TuRtLe
ctesjbuvf by Tsunami

everyone's closest brackets (or any brackets within 5 difference points) are visible here:
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/andrew-howes/Guru2k17/master/neighbors.txt
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Thanks, didn't notice how close theawesomestevr was to my bracket as I assumed 2003 > 2005 was a lock.
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I started poking at the data. started with some popular final four permutations.

these all assume 98 wins.

98 > 91, 97 > 01 - 24
98 > 94, 01 > 97 - 18
98 > 91, 01 > 97 - 17
98 > 94, 97 > 01 - 9
98 > 94, 01 > 00 - 6
98 > 91, 01 > 00 - 5
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Interesting that despite being the favourite to reach the finals 98 > 91, 01 > 97 isn't the most common final four.
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Oh, whoops, I missed the Guru submission. That's what happens when I move across the country!
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t_kizzle and especially tranny are my closest competition. I need a miracle to get ahead of them.
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I love how the fate of my bracket depends on Zelda TP not winning.

The irony.

azuarc's closest brackets: - current score: 4 count: 1
Master Moltar - total difference: 27 current deficit: 0 possible gain: 27
magic number: 27
differences: [20, 21, 34, 35]

Interesting. And for a second I almost said something silly like "91 can lose and I'd still be alive," but going down 24 points means only having 3 to make it back up with. It does confirm that it's not enough for my longshot to beat 98 in the semis. It would have to win the finals as well. (Or at least for all the brackets otherwise within 16 to not have the correct pick.)

Out of curiosity, why is the magic number the same as the difference and the gain? Shouldn't it be half that value if there's no deficit?

Iirc that number is just [gain - deficit] and not actually a magic number, that's probably why. A more accurate term might be 'breathing room', since you're eliminated if that value goes negative.
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pyresword posted...

We're both gonna be eliminated tomorrow anyways though so it doesn't matter

we done goofed D;
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