Board 8 > College Football Discussion - Week 11

(+) Yeah! (+)

kevwaffles posted...

SSJBKK20Vegito posted...

kevwaffles posted...

Getting reports that Butch Jones is out.

And it only took having losing streaks to the entire conference to do it. (Something we never even pulled off...)

I mean you guys still generally can beat Vandy more often than not in Lexington, right? So it's not too hard to avoid even when you're pretty bad.

Yes. I remember 1 and 2 win seasons. But we beat Vandy

https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/929787644422316033

good luck Brady Hoke I guess
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AP and Coaches are out. Both have Alabama #1 and Miami #2. Also both have Auburn above Georgia at #6 and #7, followed by Ohio State then Notre Dame.

The most interesting part is #3-5. Both have Clemson above Wisconsin, but whereas the AP has Oklahoma above both, Coaches have them above neither.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPxPSzz0LBY
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Duke beats Michigan State.

Bring on the rankings!
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Boise State is 25th, a G5 not from the AAC.

UCF is up to 15.

Ohio State is 9th, fringe playoff candidate.

Notre Dame in 8th, glad to see them ahead of Ohio State

Georgia in 7th.
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1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. Oklahoma

5. Wisconsin
6. Auburn

I thought OU would be 3rd but otherwise it went as I expected. A lot of people surprised that Clemson would stay at #2, but their quality wins plus their QB being out of their lone loss are important to the committee.
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I'm trying to work out what unlikely scenario we would need to make it.

Alabama beat Auburn and Georgia
Miami win out (alternatively Clemson blow the doors off Miami)
Oklahoma win out (not necessary but most likely scenario)
Ohio State win out

That would then require them to say the championship game / winning last 3 games vaults them above Notre Dame (I think it does). And that a 2 loss OSU goes in over a 2 loss Clemson or 1 loss Miami (blowout needed in Miami's case I think?)

I think that would get us in? But only by virtue of whoever gets in 4th having a way worse resume than the 3 teams in 1-3. At that point I'd almost want them to say fuck it and put in unbeaten UCF (I know it wouldn't happen)

Herbstreit just said it.

He thinks one loss Bama over Wisky. If that happens Madison should march on Indianapolis....

Anyway. Holcomb is an idiot.

He just said the thing they spent the most time on was #2 and #3.... IE Miami and Clemson, the teams that play each other....

Glad we wasted time.

UCF is all but banned from the playoff, thanks cartel.

But a USC/UCF Fiesta Bowl is in the cards. What a major recruiting boon that would be for us if we beat USC!

The Orange Bowl is really hoping two ACC teams don't make the playoffs. If that happened they'd be forced to take the third place ACC team for contractual reasons (unless there's an out clause in this scenario?) , which would mean they get NC State. That'd really hurt their potential ratings, even if they managed to land Notre Dame in the game as well.

The current NYS would look something like this:

Fiesta Bowl - USC vs UCF
Orange Bowl - Wisconsin vs NC State
Peach Bowl - Auburn vs Notre Dame
Citrus Bowl - Georgia vs Ohio State
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They actually discussed that scenario on I want to say Mike and Mike this morning. Greeny was outraged at the suggestion Wisconsin 'needed help' and demanded someone explain in what way they require help (I forget who they were talking to, maybe that gasbag Stephen A). The response was if Auburn won out then 1 loss Alabama goes in over Wisconsin

It's borderline but I don't think it happens because whilst Bama are Bama, they don't have as strong a resume as usual. LSU and Miss State are their only ranked wins I think who are both lower end teams. Whilst Wisconsin would have Ohio State + Michigan and the added benefit of being unbeaten. Michigan are likely out of top 25 with a loss with Wisconsin but there's a chance Iowa claw themselves back in. Northwestern might too.

swirIdude posted...

UCF is all but banned from the playoff, thanks cartel.

But a USC/UCF Fiesta Bowl is in the cards. What a major recruiting boon that would be for us if we beat USC!

The Orange Bowl is really hoping two ACC teams don't make the playoffs. If that happened they'd be forced to take the third place ACC team for contractual reasons (unless there's an out clause in this scenario?) , which would mean they get NC State. That'd really hurt their potential ratings, even if they managed to land Notre Dame in the game as well.

The current NYS would look something like this:

Fiesta Bowl - USC vs UCF
Orange Bowl - Wisconsin vs NC State
Peach Bowl - Auburn vs Notre Dame
Citrus Bowl - Georgia vs Ohio State

Is there a way they can force UCF into the Citrus Bowl? I mean I highly doubt it since it's effectively a home game but that would be awesome if they could.

If Ohio State don't make the playoffs, the Citrus Bowl is the dream. I can walk there from my house!

ShatteredElysium posted...

swirIdude posted...

UCF is all but banned from the playoff, thanks cartel.

But a USC/UCF Fiesta Bowl is in the cards. What a major recruiting boon that would be for us if we beat USC!

The Orange Bowl is really hoping two ACC teams don't make the playoffs. If that happened they'd be forced to take the third place ACC team for contractual reasons (unless there's an out clause in this scenario?) , which would mean they get NC State. That'd really hurt their potential ratings, even if they managed to land Notre Dame in the game as well.

The current NYS would look something like this:

Fiesta Bowl - USC vs UCF
Orange Bowl - Wisconsin vs NC State
Peach Bowl - Auburn vs Notre Dame
Citrus Bowl - Georgia vs Ohio State

Is there a way they can force UCF into the Citrus Bowl? I mean I highly doubt it since it's effectively a home game but that would be awesome if they could.

If Ohio State don't make the playoffs, the Citrus Bowl is the dream. I can walk there from my house!

God I'd love to have UK play OSU in the Citrus Bowl...

The committee can make whatever matches they want with the New Years Six, but their primary goal is to make competitive matches. That would make UCF more likely to match up with whoever is lower ranked of the other 5 teams, which will most likely be the Pac-12 champ. Also if they care about giving a closer location to the higher ranked teams, that puts Auburn and Georgia in the Peach/Citrus Bowls and USC in the Fiesta.

A Georgia/UCF rematch would be fun. One of our Conference USA championsip teams beat Georgia in the Liberty Bowl. We have a habit of beating the Power 5 when no one believes in us.
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Actually even though we're projected Citrus right now, I don't think it's actually possible.

Scenario 1: Wisconsin beats OSU. Wisconsin goes to playoffs. Ohio State to Orange
Scenario 2: Ohio State beat Wisconsin. Ohio State goes to Orange (or very unlikely playoffs). Wisconsin goes to Citrus (or possibly Cotton/Fiesta as an at large)

I'd imagine there's a chance Ohio State get an at large even with a loss to Wisconsin depending on the scoreline (if Wisconsin somehow win and don't go to playoffs)

This is shaping up to be a weird year with no dominant teams. Even Alabama is vulnerable. The final bowl matchups could be a lot different than today.
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Also I'm a dope and forgot that it's the Cotton Bowl in the New Years Six, not the Citrus Bowl. So no walking to a NYS for you.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

Actually even though we're projected Citrus right now, I don't think it's actually possible.

Scenario 1: Wisconsin beats OSU. Wisconsin goes to playoffs. Ohio State to Orange
Scenario 2: Ohio State beat Wisconsin. Ohio State goes to Orange (or very unlikely playoffs). Wisconsin goes to Citrus (or possibly Cotton/Fiesta as an at large)

I'd imagine there's a chance Ohio State get an at large even with a loss to Wisconsin depending on the scoreline (if Wisconsin somehow win and don't go to playoffs)

Why are you of the opinion you'd be New Years 6 over PSU if you lose to Wisky?

You're only one spot ahead of them. If you both go into that week ranked 6 and 7 they'll jump you. That's why you are projected Citrus Bowl instead of Orange, Peach, Fiesta or Cotton...

I completely forgot about Penn State tbh but was also thinking Big Ten #2 would be loser of title game rather than highest ranked team (for no reason in particular and now i think about it, rankings sounds like what it goes off). But also looking at bowl affiliations, I think Notre Dame get Orange Bowl priority over Big Ten.

Orange is listed as ACC vs Big Ten or SEC or Notre Dame. Other 3 are listed as At Large vs At Large. Not sure how accurate that is though.

Which I guess brings up an interesting point, can a conference be that bad that it gets zero representation in the playoffs or new year six? I'd have to imagine they would never let it happen

ShatteredElysium posted...

I completely forgot about Penn State tbh but was also thinking it would be loser of title game rather than highest ranked team (for no reason in particular). But also looking at bowl affiliations, I think Notre Dame get Orange Bowl priority over Big Ten.

Orange is listed as ACC vs Big Ten or SEC or Notre Dame. Other 3 are listed as At Large vs At Large. Not sure how accurate that is though.

Which I guess brings up an interesting point, can a conference be that bad that it gets zero representation in the playoffs or new year six? I'd have to imagine they would never let it happen

The only way that can even conceivably happen (and I'm sure they'd still be forced to take one) would be if the conference had 0 teams in the top 25. Cause you are obligated to take the highest ranked team from a conference if they don't make the Playoff.

Just checked. It isn't actually the highest ranked team they are obligated to take.

They are obligated to take any power 5 champion that did not make it into the playoffs. Past that it's the Group of 5 thingy. Then rest are purely at large bids. And they try to avoid rematches apparently.

But either way, all power 5 conferences have to have some sort of representation in either the NY6 or playoffs (Not necessarily both though)

I mean obviously not all P5 conferences have playoff representation.
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I haven't found any clarity on whether the Big Ten team or the Notre Dame team takes priority for the Orange Bowl. The only way we'll find out is if Wisconsin is the Big 10 champ and misses the playoff - Orange Bowl would take Notre Dame over Wisconsin if they are allowed to. If Ohio State is the Big 10 champ and misses the playoff, then both they and Notre Dame are good bowl game picks so if Ohio State is picked, it won't be clear whether it's by obligation or by choice.
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From what I read I was wrong and they are supposed to take the highest ranked team out of that cluster of conferences. Whether they stick to it i don't know

I think if Auburn actually does beat Bama, the Top 25 poll would just disappear because they wouldn't know how to rank the top 6 teams. They'd be like poll? What poll?

Then next year the playoffs would include 6 or 8 teams.

If Bama beats Auburn, then the selection committee would hopefully take Wisconsin out to dinner before they fuck em.
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Thrillwell posted...

I think if Auburn actually does beat Bama, the Top 25 poll would just disappear because they wouldn't know how to rank the top 6 teams. They'd be like poll? What poll?

Then next year the playoffs would include 6 or 8 teams.

If Bama beats Auburn, then the selection committee would hopefully take Wisconsin out to dinner before they fuck em.

If Bama beats Auburn Wisconsin is fine. (Unless Ga barely beats Bama. Then we might have chaos)

Wisconsin no longer needs help. The top 7 is all "if you win out, you're in"
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Nah, Wisconsin still needs to fret a little bit over a situation with a 1-loss Alabama crowding them out. Basically, if you're Wisconsin, you're rooting for Bama to win out.
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Meow1000 posted...

Wisconsin no longer needs help. The top 7 is all "if you win out, you're in"

I hope so.

I know I just see ALOT of smoke on this whole 1 loss Bama gets in over Wisconsin.

TsunamiXXVIII posted...

I need to take some deep breaths.

I'm a fan of college football, but I don't really make a big deal about certain teams. I root for Rutgers because they're the only FBS team in the state, and I hated Ohio State even before Rutgers was in the Big Ten, but most of the time, I like upsets.The more chaos, the better, even if it means I lost one of my picks in Ladder or something. I honestly never thought I'd become outraged about a college football game, unless it was a team getting robbed by an egregious officiating error. Watching the Georgia-Auburn game, I'm smiling about Auburn absolutely housing the Bulldogs even though if I stop to think about it, I want Georgia to win the SEC--I have no problem with the Dawgs, and the only two teams still alive in the West are Alabama and Auburn.

Then they gave a gamebreak that Florida State came out of nowhere to pull within 3 of Clemson and just recovered a fumble. NO. Not like this. I don't even necessarily agree that Clemson belonged in the top 4, and when I calm down, this actually gives NC State life in the Atlantic, which means more of that chaos I love so much. But I don't think that the chance of NC State winning the ACC is enough. A few weeks ago, I thought that the UF-FSU game would be Florida's last gasp at bowl eligibility, but I resigned myself to the fact that FSU would be the favorite--but Florida had a chance of keeping the Noles out of a bowl, right?

No. Now is not the time for Clemsonning to make a comeback--not when it all but makes it a certainty that Florida State will still be in a bowl game. And, yes, the Noles' lofty preseason ranking would make their losing record even sweeter, but it's Florida State. Expectations could've been legitimately low and I'd still revel in their every loss. Please, Clemson, if you want to stay out of the playoff, just job to South Carolina or something. Don't do this.

Wow. Clemson came through for me even better than I could've dreamed. ESPN's weekly edition of "bad beats" showed that by continuing to run plays at the point where they could've gone into victory formation, they swung it from a Florida State cover to a Clemson cover. (Actually, they did a really whammy on bettors, as that final touchdown also pushed the game from "under" to "over"--and did both by such a small margin that FSU could've preserved both the under and a push against the spread simply by blocking the PAT attempt.) And this means that Florida State is 0-9 against the spread.

Of course, the sad thing is, even with how bad they are, they'll easily be favored in all three of their remaining games, so they can fall to 0-12 against the spread and still make a bowl game. Come on, Gators, don't let them through!
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