Board 8 > * The Show EP 2 - Epic Breakdown of World's Biggest Bracket!, w/ yo & Leon *

(+) Yeah! (+)

UH OH a six vote cut, will Kefka be able to erect a barrier?
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that six vote cut was 30 minutes ago dude

he BARRIER'D the Block just fine
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Man, Leon was not kidding about not playing Doki Doki at night. My heart jumped in my chest, and I've got bright sunshine streaming through my windows.
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yeah man that warning at the beginning of the game isn't joking
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Whiskey_Nick posted...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

(except when yoblazer was unable to make it on on a handful of days)

WOW ANGE TELL ME HOW YOU REALLY FEEL!

I would say you're not far behind him
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Also I'll sing the DK or CG rap
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when the show

Charizard what are you doing?!

Jeepers creepers, if only someone had told me FF6 hung 54% on Wind Waker!


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STElNER posted...

when the show

I do think the next episode should be recorded after the end of Division 4's matches, during the first few hours of Division 5 just starting up. That would give The Show guys half of round 1's results to discuss.
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so I think I may have been right about a few things
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LusterSoldier posted...

Oh yeah, that Reddit topic is recent enough that we could see quite a few outside voters coming in to vote for L-Block.

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LusterSoldier posted...

One thing I plan to do in the near future is make registered user voting trend charts for select matches over the course of the contest to get a better idea as to the range of variance in registered user voting by hour (and time period). I also want to get an idea if the trends are different depending on whether the match happened on a weekday or weekend.

Well, I finally created registered user trend charts for a couple of matches so far:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O1QuDMeK4VhHOia7bdBgtVp_F3kRTnGkkjtR0zRyudw/pub?gid=1379643868

I've classified them into weekday and weekend matches. We've only got 1 day of weekend matches so far that weren't tainted by a rally, as the Monika match was also on a weekend.
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Ngamer64 posted...

- the Monika rally brought in about 3000 new voters, and they swung the results by 12% (in terms of GameFAQs vs Outsiders) which is three times higher than any other match to that point. good effort, but it wasn't nearly enough

Biggest Winners So Far in Terms of "The Board 8 Factor" (registered versus outsiders swing %) [besides Monika]

1. Pikachu +6% (ruh roh)
2. Donkey Kong +4%
3. Leon +3%
4. Ganon, Yoshi, Sunderland +2%

- we're at an almost perfect split between message board posters and outsiders, floating between 50.40% and 49.10% for all matches so far (aside from Rally Day when they pushed that down by 6%)

- GameFAQs people (aka mostly Board 8) contribute 78.16% of the votes in the first five minutes, and 65.86% in the first hour. this quickly falls to 49ish% for the next 23 hours

Further Adventures in Us vs Them Swings
Bowser +4%
Charizard +4% (he'd have only won by 10 votes, out of 8000 cast, without registered voters!)
Crash +4%
2B +3%
Peach +2%
L-Block +2% (early vote is "down with jokes" but the rest of the site seems cool with them)

Everything continues to look downright peachy when it comes to the "double votes give Nintendo a slight edge in every debatable match" trend I predicted. The one exception was Red, which is a little odd since Pokemon represents 2 of our 3 biggest swings so far... he could have other advantages versus Sora in R2, but "B8 Factor" loyalty won't be one of them.


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People say these matches are boring and trendless with the new start times, but I want to prove them WRONG. Or maybe right? Luster- could you make a list of the five biggest vote swings in terms of % at the freeze versus where it finished?

Also, is anyone posting the prediction percentages from https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx_stats They're fun to consider but I don't want to have to pull those into Excel to calc them...


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wow look at Ngamer completely ignoring two contributions I've been making with every match
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Have not laid eyes on any such numbers since the first night results went up. Are you posting those two things... inside the Stats topic?


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That is the place to post statistics, after all!

My trend charts have all the freeze numbers on them, so deriving the biggest drop from the freeze to the final result would be pretty easy to figure out.
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if you wire leon and lusters' brains togethers you get a function TI-84 calculator
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Not sure about the freeze, but Phoenix was close to 100% for a pretty substantial stretch of votes (65-2 or something when I voted)!
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Phoenix had 69% at the freeze.

Yuna had 61% at the freeze and finished at 72%, so that's probably the winner so far, since Phoenix is only at 9% at the moment.

Kefka dropped 4% from the freeze. Leon Kennedy dropped 5%. Vivi gained 4% from the freeze. Chun-Li dropped 8%. Lightning rose 5%.

There hasn't been a ton of fluctuation from most matches after the first full hour though, at least compared to the final results. You might see percentages going up and down through the day and the night, but they tend to balance out by the end.
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also I'll do this just for you @Ngamer64 (since I assume you want these numbers for the next episode of The Show)

Prediction percentages!

Dante - 81.71%
Lightning - 80.74%
Chun-Li - 55.02%
Ganondorf - 92.41%

Vivi - 77.23%
Aya - 46.49%
DK - 66.99%
Leon - 72.69%

Zero - 90.32%
Knuckles - 61.94%
Master Hand - 50.55%
Wario - 72.70%

Yoshi - 84.70%
Velvet - 56.88%
Pikachu - 81.87%
Kratos - 87.47%

Sora - 89.05%
Red - 85.53%
Crash - 73.02%
Big Boss - 61.28%

Alucard - 62.94%
Yuna - 84.46%
Kefka - 60.50%
Bomberman - 54.18%

2B - 81.32%
Ness - 52.50%
Charizard - 63.65%
Bowser - 79.02%
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Ngamer64 posted...

Peach +2%
L-Block +2% (early vote is "down with jokes" but the rest of the site seems cool with them)

I've already stated in another topic that the early vote is not synonymous with the overall registered user result. The early vote (mostly Board 8) makes up only a very small percentage of the total registered user votes, so it makes sense that the early vote won't always agree with the final registered user results. L-Block struggling early doesn't mean anything with how the actual registered user vote will play out.

Also, Peach should be roughly +3% because Alucard got 55.80%/58.77% from registered/anonymous users.
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Okay good stuff Leon!
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If you want today's numbers:

Phoenix - 63.52%
Ike - 64.95%
Isaac - 72.12%
Kirby - 87.15%
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No new The Show makes me a sad panda.

we're more than halfway through round 1, maybe after D.Va and Waluigi's matches to see if those rallies take off

after that we need a new The Show
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If Aloy is behind the entire time, I don't think D.Va will get a rally even if she does have the potential.

Episode Three is now up!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77139288


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does this need bumping one more day
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