Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

just wait til we see Waluigi tonight
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That match scares me. It's such a perfect opportunity for a Nintendo character to overperform like crazy. Aeris is a character defined by exactly one thing which has lost a lot of its shock value over time, and Waluigi is currently in some weird meme-induced upswing. I'd like Aeris' chance better against say, Wario.
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Well yeah, we know what Wario's ceiling is, and it isn't close to Aerith, even with FFVII in regression. Waluigi has the potential to do something unusual, at least.
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Round 1 Aloy vs. D.Va

Moltars Analysis

This is very interesting. Two contest newcomers who arent complete unknowns to casuals. Both are from new games that arent huge on GameFAQs, but have done okay in GotY polls.

Honestly, the lack of data pre-contest made this pretty much a toss-up. Horizon is more of a GameFAQs game, but D.Va seems like a character the site would gravitate more towards. Now that were half way through Round 1, we should have a clearer idea of how this match goes, right?

Not really! Neither are from Nintendo or Square, neither are all that iconic, both are from new games which usually dont do as well as older games.

Ill just go with D.Va because I like her more.



hey now everyone else blindly goes with their favorites at some point im allowed to do it too

Moltars Bracket: D.Va

Moltars Prediction: D.Va 52%

transiences Analysis

I went back and forth on this match a lot. If you go by which game is stronger, it's certainly Horizon -- we're not talking about a powerhouse or anything, but it did pretty well in that one GOTY poll, beating Nier: Automata pretty easily. 2B certainly didn't have any problems against some Destiny thing. Aloy is a pretty popular modern protag and is fairly well known by today's standards. Every trailer and ad really pumped her up and she's the clear star of that game.

I would dump on her if she was facing, like, an Aya Brea or a Vyse, someone with some old-school chops that can expose her with this audience that revels in classics. But she's facing Dva, a modern character from a multiplayer shooter. Dva is interesting. One important aspect here is that she's on lots of platforms. Her game is about as popular as Horizon on this site. She's not the star of her game like Aloy is, but she's probably the most recognizable and played character. She's not the Ryu of the game, but I'd put her #1 in the power rankings.

I think there's a sense with Dva that she's bigger than her game, that maybe she'll get some rally or something, or maybe people recognize her from other mediums because the Overwatch community is creepy as hell. I.. kinda don't think that plays with this audience all that much. At her best, Dva's more like Spy from TF2 or something like that: totally recognizable even to people who don't play the game but not actually all that popular.

Still, that's more than enough to beat Aloy on the right day. I'm going with Aloy though because she's just more this site's kind of character. Dva being so much more ubiquitous makes me pause, but this site doesn't exactly step out of the shadows all that much. If anyone wins this big though, it'll be Dva.

transience's prediction: Aloy with 54.11%

Leonharts Analysis

When I first saw this match in the bracket, I had no clue what to think of it. Fast-forward to now, and I still have no clue what to think of it. D.Va seems to be the big favorite on the board, but I have no confidence in Overwatch characters to be worth anything without a rally. Horizon: Zero Dawn is more this sites type of game. However, D.Va is probably the more recognizable of the two and shes more visually appealing (which I think kinda matters in a female/female match because were still 90%+ guys), so she might be able to win via the Pac-Man Apathy Factor.

But Ive got Aloy in my bracket, so Ill stick with it, I guess. I just have no feel for this match at all.

Leonharts Vote: Aloy

Leonharts Prediction: Aloy with 54.75%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Im sort of shocked Aloy got this many nominations. I do like her, but (brace yourself for a Hot Take) I wish she was in a better game.

Theres been some talk about rallying happening in this match on D.Vas side. Could it happen? Sure, but rallies have so far been ineffective at best, and non-existant at worst. That being said, I dont actually think D.Va needs a rally to win here. I think shes more recognizable, and while Overwatch technically isnt a GameFAQs Game, it seems well liked enough that I dont think D.Va gets hurt by ew its a shooter. Im prepared to be wrong.

Kleenexs Prediction: D.Va with 52%

Lopen's Limited Edition OFFICIAL Analysis:

This guest seat is so uncomfortable. Where did you put my chair? What do you mean you threw it out? What, because I didn't want to do the dumb game contest? This crew. This crew. The worst.

Just as well. As my bracket lives and dies with one thing, it's fitting that I should only appear for her matches. Yes, that's right, I threw my hat in with the rally lottery, and I picked D.Va to win the contest. Now let's make things clear: I'm over the rally thing. I don't want to see a rally. So, really, this is just me looking out for all of you people at home who are also over the rally thing. Because as you well know Lopen can never be happy with these contests, and well, $1000 would make me happy. Thus, this rally will not succeed, because I picked it. I made the sacrifice, fell on the sword, for you. So the question is... why did I use my one choice of one rally to prevent on D.Va of all characters? Why not Madoka? She's a high flyer of the highest magnitude, after all. Maybe Waluigi Time or Bowserette? Or Sans or Draven? Really, it mostly just comes down to process of elimination.

Monika, to me, was easily dead in the water to start. The game is not fresh, and the fanbase just isn't very big. Wario is too big. Too tall. Even with an enthusiastic reddit, she would have needed to rally quite a sum from outside the reddit as regulars to that were not high enough in number. Baffles me that people who don't think rallies are blatant cheating bought into this one. The resources to rally legitimately just weren't there.
Waluigi is probably hitting stone immediately. I don't think he's a character that's going to immediately gain traction and Aeris is no joke.
Bowser? The Bowsette fad is already mostly in the rear view, which I expected. By the time Bowser needs the help, it'll be even further. And really it only works if he gets a Bowsette pic anyway.
Sans? I don't see the fanbase being nearly as passionate about Sans as they are about the game itself (which itself wouldn't get nearly as much buzz as it would 3 years ago). I also expect Sans to be antivoted on GameFAQs, so he probably loses to Pac-Man without a rally, which I don't see him getting.
Draven? League may be at an all time low on mainstream popularity aside from close to its release. I just don't think people are passionate about the game right now. And while the League of Legends fanbase is indeed toxic enough to troll a contest twice, I don't think they'll care about the game enough to at this point.
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D.Va on the other hand, has a lot going for her. The biggest thing is her path being super soft early. The first round, she should be favored to win easily (I'll get to this in a minute) without any sort of rally whatsoever. Round 2, Fox McCloud. Likely he'd be a strong enough wall to stop her had she drawn him in round 1, much like Wario was with Monika, but with any sort of modest rally force is beatable, as it's probably not more than a 60-40 normally. In Round 2, I could actually see her getting that since some buzz from advancing through Round 1 may have built up. Round 3 and 4, she's likely going to face back to back FF characters, which should spur aggression vs GameFAQs (because you know GameFAQs, we love our FF characters haha, FF always wins am I right guys?). She's got the path in the style of L-Block and Draven. One that allows her to build up, and reach a critical mass. She also has the fanbase size to draw from to make it more than just a theory thing-- if the eyeballs are interested, there are definitely enough to draw from. The game is more in the vein of a League of Legends type game than your typical Blizzard offering, being more character driven and entirely multiplayer/team centered, so don't assume it can't be done just because "Blizzard rallies never work."

I guess you could say Aloy has a chance. Horizon did alright in GotY polls, but really, so did Overwatch. The big thing is, Aloy looks like a generic mc genericton, the likes of which have been slaughtered in droves so far, and I'd arguably take D.Va's 14 seed as meaning more than Aloy's 3 seed given the Overwatch fanbase is so split given the bajillion characters in the game. All that being said D.Va being a cute girl could probably win her the match alone, but I think Overwatch also just has more coverage on GameFAQs. It's older, was released on more platforms, and is the type of game that can keep a playerbase for a long time. D.Va isn't universally loved by the fanbase or anything, but really she should have more than enough to take this one with ease, without any sort of rallying force needed.

Lopen's Prediction: D.Va with 61.63%

Crew Consensus: Crew is split, but slightly favors meka over mecha-hunter.
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Lopens Analysis
Sans? I don't see the fanbase being nearly as passionate about Sans as they are about the game itself (which itself wouldn't get nearly as much buzz as it would 3 years ago).

I think Sans is almost as popular as Undertale the game. He's become the mascot/representative of it and I don't think I've ever seen anyone who liked Undertale and didn't like Sans.

Biggest thing that will do him in are anti-votes. I'd like his chances a lot better in 4-ways.
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who would anti-vote Sans, unless it's just a general anti-Undertale vote?
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Smash fans

Also yes anti-Undertale votes, on this site.
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transience posted...

who would anti-vote Sans, unless it's just a general anti-Undertale vote?

I mean

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6456-one-year-later-have-you-ever-played-undertale

It's not Sephiroth level, but it's one of the strongest anti-votes we're going to get in today's climate and if the match is close it's going to be a problem.
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yeah, I meant Sans specifically. of course this site has memories of 2015.
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Huh, I was kind of expecting to be the only Aloy pick.
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I think DVa makes more sense for popularity elsewhere, but maybe Aloy's got a shot and why not roll the dice
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Round 1 Jill Valentine vs. Fox McCloud

Moltars Analysis

Before the contest started, I thought Jill was being counted out here. Fox has looked better than Jill historically, but I still believed she stood a chance here.

After seeing how well Nintendo has done though, and knowing that RE isnt all that hot right now, this is swinging more and more in Foxs favor.

Moltars Bracket: Fox

Moltars Prediction: Fox 59%

transiences Analysis

I feel like this match has happened like 3 times before. Maybe it has, who knows. Jill always gets these guys who she's technically dead even with but loses by like 28 votes.

Anyway, it's not 2004 or 2005 anymore. Fox is just way above her in this post-Nintendo Boost environment. Jill's ancient by today's standards and Fox has actually had some games recently. Do they matter? Not really, but Smash does.

transience's prediction: Fox with 61.11%

Leonharts Analysis

This is an interesting match on paper because they put up similar performances on Samus and Snake in 2010. I think Fox is perennially kind of overrated and people think he should be better than he is when his performances havent usually backed it up. Im not sure why this is, other than Fox usually getting hidden behind SFF/LFF so we dont have a clear read on his strength. I guess people think being top tier in Smash or Star Fox 64 is worth a lot.

That being said, Jill Valentine isnt a high bar to clear. She lost to Ryu Arabusa and Princess Peach by 27 votes. She had two close matches with Ocelot in 4-ways. Shes pretty much the definitive low midcarder in these contests nowadays. In a potentially close match, youre probably better off leaning Nintendo, especially since Fox will probably get a slight boost from the double votes. Watch this be the first match where the registered votes counting double ends up flipping the result because Jill needs one more painful loss to add to her resume.

Either that, or Fox will win easily regardless.

Leonharts Vote: Fox McCloud

Leonharts Prediction: Fox McCloud with 53.50%
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Kleenexs Analysis

This match is great. This is the exact kind of match Jill could lose by, say, 27 votes or so. In a year where Nintendo didnt seem like it was on roids, I think Id probably give the edge to Jill. Given what weve seen so far, Im leaning more towards Fox. His match history is actually a bit more impressive-looking than I recall, and Jill has been known to choke before.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fox with 50.03%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This match could have perhaps been close back in the old days, but in 2018 there's probably no chance for Jill to win at all. We saw Resident Evil having weakened three years ago, the franchise is past its heyday and it shows.

Jill actually did look decent enough five years ago scoring a higher round 1 percentage than most and beating Kratos in round 2, which is a very weird result, even if Kratos 5 years ago was probably at his weakest. That result is likely the best case you can make for Jill, because it looks good now despite Mega Man slaughtering both.

But Fox will have no trouble here. While Star Fox doesn't matter, Fox has always drawn strength from Smash and moreso than most. This contest, Smash hype is at its best and Nintendo in general has been doing pretty well. Basically there's a chance Jill is the weakest she has ever been and Fox is the strongest he has ever been. While both things may not be the case, it's still very unlikely Fox will have any trouble at all. I predict he'll win quite comfortably and look good enough for the people in their "FF has fallen" mindset to call for Fox>Aerith (if Waluigi isn't actually rallying/joking past her now).

Jill Valentine - 40.64%
Fox McCloud - 59.36%"

Crew Consensus: Fox barrel rolls over Jill.
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KamikazePotato posted...

That match scares me. It's such a perfect opportunity for a Nintendo character to overperform like crazy. Aeris is a character defined by exactly one thing which has lost a lot of its shock value over time, and Waluigi is currently in some weird meme-induced upswing. I'd like Aeris' chance better against say, Wario.

Is he in an upswing? I remember Waluigi being a meme earlier this decade but I thought it had cooled off. I figured he'd still overperform because of memes, but I never entertained the idea of an upset.
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the smash people made waluigi into a meme again

by sending sakurai death threats and acting like ridiculous children

like i shitpost a lot but the smash community is so toxic, i didn't think anything could make me dislike Waluigi but they fucking did it
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Round 1 Shovel Knight vs. Captain Toad

Moltars Analysis

So in most cases, I would argue that characters arent going to act as proxies. I just did it for Sonic/Metal Sonic. Here though? Hmm.

Captain Toad is a unique Toad, but for some reason, I think people are just going to see a Toad thats dressed up and vote for him. It helps that Shovel Knight isnt all that popular on this site, whereas Toad is known by everyone.

Shovel Knight could do this on his own strength if people are voting solely on the fact that its Captain Toad and not regular Toad, as the Captain version is very new and not many people specifically care about him. I see that as the less likely scenario though, and Captain Toad is going to just get Toad votes in general to win.

Moltars Bracket: Captain Toad

Moltars Prediction: Captain Toad 60%

transiences Analysis

Am I crazy to think that Captain Toad and Toad are two totally different dudes to most eyes? Probably. I would feel better if this were just SMB2 Toad though instead of that dumb hat. Don't anyone come at me about the hat. It's dumb.

I actually have Shovel Knight in my bracket. I just looked back at old matches and I'm not totally sure why.. that game did better against GTA than I was expecting but that's probably more GTA than anything. I dunno. Shovel Knight has become a weird offshoot Nintendo thing, like a Mega Man but without the years of history or the icon status. People have talked about Shovel Knight in Smash to the point where he feels like a side Nintendo character. Against real Nintendo I would expect a doubling, but when we're talking about Toad, and Captain Toad at that, I dunno.

Screw it. I'm definitely losing points somewhere today no matter who I pick here.

transience's prediction: Shovel Knight with 50.45%

Leonharts Analysis

Weve got two matches on the same day where I didnt have a clue what to think of it when the bracket first came out, and I still dont really know what to think of it now! My gut reaction was Captain Toad because hes clearly a Mario character, and its hard to trust an indie character to win a match here, even if Shovel Knight is probably one of the more well-known ones (as well as having a cool design). However, I also think theres a decent chance Captain Toad is just a repeat of GROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE, who lost handily to Lu Bu in CBIX (still legitimately one of the most hilarious results ever). This is a test of How strong can you be just by looking like a Mario character?

And I dont know the answer. This could be another instance where the Pac-Man Apathy Factor comes into play because people will at least recognize Captain Toad as a Mario character, even if theyve never played a game hes in. I feel like this match isnt close regardless of who wins, but I dont know which one itll be. Ill just stick with my bracket here, too, I guess.

Leonharts Vote: Captain Toad

Leonharts Prediction: Captain Toad with 55.55%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Captain Toad is the realest motherfucker in this bracket. Shovel Knight is cool and all, but hes got nothing on the Capn. Captain Toad is ready for adventure and also ready to fuck up your bracket.

Kleenexs Prediction: Captain Toad with 59%

Guests Analysis - Nameless2000

I've had an account here since 2005, so it's probably overdue that I step out of my comfort zone and try my best to nail down one of these matches.

I'm happy that one of these two guys I nominated get to make it to Round 2 in their contest debuts. Captain Toad is a part of the most well know franchise in gaming while Shovel Knight likely has the better playrate here. That is, unless, you count Mario Galaxy and Odyssey for the Captain's playrate. It feels weird to back the indie game character over the Mario character, but Shovel Knight has done a great job getting his name out there and becoming well known, even getting into Smash Bros. as an Assist Trophy (among his now countless amount of cameos in other indie games). Captain Toad's biggest roles have been in games not so many people played, while his parts in SMG and SMO were minor. And with Peach not coming close to Alucard, it seems like it takes more than being a Mario character on a Nintendo-boosted GameFAQs to become a big player in these contests. I believe Shovel Knight will earn a comfortable victory here while Captain Toad will be recognizable enough to get a respectable amount of votes.

The game Shovel Knight was able to get 38% on GTA:SA in 2015, showing some amount of strength. Toad was also a part of the 2007 contest, getting only 10% in a 4-way but whatever that guy was no Captain!

"For shovelry!" Shovel Knight 58.64%
"Time for adventure!" Captain Toad 41.36%

Crew Consensus: Another 3-2 Crew split! Toad digs a hole for Shovel Knight
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Master Moltar posted...

Kleenexs Analysis

Captain Toad is the realest motherf***er in this bracket. Shovel Knight is cool and all, but hes got nothing on the Capn. Captain Toad is ready for adventure and also ready to f*** up your bracket.

Kleenexs Prediction: Captain Toad with 59%

I love you
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I guess I'm losing a point here...I assume Shovel Knight would win comfortably.
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Shovel Knight isn't a bad pick. He's the underdog but he definitely has a chance since it's two untested characters.

Sorry to preempt a not totally boring match but I've places to be and gotta keep the streak going

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Aloy v D.Va
Official guest analyst Lopen is on point here

D.Va with whatever official guest analyst Lopen predicted

Jill Valentine v Fox
This may have been a debatable match at one point. Those days are long gone. Let's set Phoenix/Chris as the floor for the beatdown and add like 5 or something.

Fox with 62.89%

Shovel Knight v Captain Toad
I think Captain Toad is being highly underestimated here. In a 1v1 format he should do much better than Toad did in multiways, as he's able to fully capitalize on his Pac-Man powers. Shovel Knight is a well known indie game who I'd take over a lot of the field all things considered, but there's still a certain ceiling there.

Captain Toad with 60.32%

Waluigi v Aeris Gainsborough

This one could very well be embarrassing for Aeris and it wouldn't surprise me. That being said like, I think Waluigi is more able to overperform in a multiway. Dude does have a lot of haters and that's gonna be magnified when going back to a 1v1 format. Course Final Fantasy VII does as well, but I could see this thing where a lesser of two evils mindset ends up favoring Aeris, much like it did with Tidus back in 2004. I actually expect Aeris to pop a big number here.

Aeris Gainsborough with 64.19%
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transiences Analysis

I actually have Shovel Knight in my bracket. I just looked back at old matches and I'm not totally sure why.. that game did better against GTA than I was expecting but that's probably more GTA than anything.

Guests Analysis - Nameless2000

The game Shovel Knight was able to get 38% on GTA:SA in 2015, showing some amount of strength.

*weeps*

Literally picked that game to win twice due to being indie and up against things that had reputations for sucking.

Two matches. Because lol GTA and because Chrono Cross is hated on for not being a "proper" sequel to Chrono Trigger and wouldn't even have the benefit of bracket votes because the LOLCasuals always massively overrate WoW.

Well, at least I got the part about them overrating WoW right; CC did have a very low prediction percentage to even escape R1.
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Most voters don't care about any of this (the ones that don't frequent this board anyway).
They vote on the character based on title popularity and perosnal taste.

Thats why I'm voting for the least popular or favorited character in every match.. I choose Hat Kid over Squall for this reason.

I'd choose an alien sprite from Space Invaders over Mario over the same view points.
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Round 1 Waluigi vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

what is this day good lord

This is a pretty scary match if youre an FF7 or Aerith fan. Theres no question about who has been historically stronger than the two (Aerith obv), but recent developments in gaming have brought this match into question.

Waluigi has become more and more of a meme in recent years, and this has really taken off lately with his exclusion from playable status in Smash Ultimate. Waluigi fans are nuts and could definitely attempt to get rallies going to get him the win here. It also helps that FF, and FF7 in particular, is very easy to rally against.

So far, rallies have been pretty ineffective. Monika couldnt even beat Waluigis partner in crime with a rally after people thought it might happen ahaha! After what weve seen so far, it does seem more and more unlikely that a large-scare rally is going to blow everything up, but today is a prime candidate for that to happen between this match and Aloy/D.Va.

As always, Im going to bank on the expected, non-rally result to happen. Aerith is definitely the stronger between the two, even with FF7 declining with time and Nintendo looking strong this contest. Like with Alucard/Peach, the pre-contest gap between the two was already too large to make up enough ground for Waluigi to close it completely.

Moltars Bracket: Aerith

Moltars Prediction: Aerith 55%

transiences Analysis

Hahahahaha. Oh god. When I first saw this match, I definitely picked Waluigi.

It's because it's Aerith. She always sucks way more than I expect. She bombed against Zelda in that one female bracket match. She went down hard in a Squall and Sora match. She got low-key killed against Auron. I don't trust her at all and pick against her the first opportunity that I can find.

...Waluigi isn't the guy, especially in this anti-joke environment, and he's not gonna get some weird rally unless people think Aerith dying is still funny all these years later. I'm picking Aerith, but she's on notice that I'm going against her at the first sign of legit competition!

Oh, and 36 matches in we finally get our first glimpse of Final Fantasy VII. This is the worst match to gauge that game's characters on but it's the single biggest outstanding question of this contest. (Pokemon is right behind it.)

transience's prediction: Aerith with 58.59%

Leonharts Analysis

The match is hilarious because we would have never given this pairing more than two seconds of thought in any other contest before this one. To put it simply, I dont buy into Waluigi being worth anything. Hes the closest thing a Nintendo character can be to being niche or cult. Final Fantasy VII has fallen off and will probably continue to fall off, but I think Aerith should be enough to handle Waluigi of all people. I think this will probably just be a repeat of Alucard/Peach, where a lot of people are nervous as the match approaches because of Nintendos apparent dominance, and then the established strong character wins without much effort.

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Aerith Gainsborough with 61.40%
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Kleenexs Analysis

I dont even know where to start with this match. Aeris was pretty good back in the day, but its been a long time since weve seen her in a contest, and Final Fantasy 7 has fallen in a big way since those days. Waluigi is now a meme machine with infinite big dick energy and I...uhhh...what was I saying?

I hate this match. I hope Aeris wins because Waluigi sucks, but Im not convinced.

Kleenexs Prediction: Waluigi with 54%

Guests Analysis - tennisboy213

I felt obligated to take the guest spot for either this or Aloy/D.Va because the winners of them are in doubt and my perfect bracket is on the line! (Garrus pls, at the time of this writing he's up 338 votes with a little under 7 hours to go.) I'll also say I'm looking forward to the board overreacting one way or another to seeing FF7 in action for the first time in the contest.

Waluigi is a potential meme-rally target so that's why this match was debated pre-contest. Honestly I never bought into that. At least not as a contest-winning rally. It's possible he gets a small rally to win this match though, especially if it's close. In addition to a potential rally, this match is now in question because with the results so far, Nintendo is seemingly on the upswing, while Final Fantasy has gone out and lost a bunch of debated matches.

This could be a similar situation to Alucard/Peach, where a match that shouldn't have been in question was now suddenly debated due to NintendoFEAR. Now was Waluigi already close enough in strength to Aerith to make a match of this? I don't know how reliable they are, but the 2013 x-stats point to a 62.3% Aerith win. That seems a little too high to overcome. I do feel weird picking Nintendo to lose a close match though. I think this will be a close one, and definitely wouldn't be surprised by a Waluigi win. Come on FF7, don't let me down!

tennisboy213's (maybe still perfect) bracket: Aerith
tennisboy213's prediction: Aerith with 53%

Crew Consensus: Waluigi dies
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Kleenex took the bullet to save us from the crew curse.

Aerith is most definitely going to be losing in the first minute
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yeah, if I had my picks back I'd definitely pick Dva. oh well
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Where was the analysis for Garrus/Ramza? I missed it somehow.
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wa
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Starting to feel smart for picking Shovel Knight!

Too bad I also picked Aloy
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I don't know what stats topic to post in so I'll post here.

DIG, SHOVEL KNIGHT! DIG!
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looks like I picked the wrong match

FakeAccount3000 posted...

Where was the analysis for Garrus/Ramza? I missed it somehow.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77122725/911196265
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/77122725/911196269
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Just noticed that the front page says 'Toad' instead of 'Captain Toad'. That bugs me. I wouldn't have picked Shovel Knight over Toad - the pic is still clearly Captain Toad but yeah. Going to be annoyed if this ends up close.
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man, I'm mad that I might get Shovel Knight right but went with Aloy over Dva. how dumb.
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I think the listing of Toad is irrelevant

People who give a crap know it's Captain Toad. People who don't are probably treating him as Toad regardless of whether it says Captain
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Going to just copy my response from the other topic

KamikazePotato posted...

Of course it makes a difference. One is a very specific Toad in a specific game that most people haven't played. The other is the general Toad that has been in a million spinoffs and that people have played as a lot. Goombario from Paper Mario would be much weaker than Goomba.

If this match ends up as like a 1% difference I am absolutely going to claim that the front page name flipped it
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People who don't identify that design as Captain Toad don't know it's a specific different Toad anyway though
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But they would if he was actually named Captain Toad
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Is Captain Toad actually a physically different character than Toad? I always just assumed it was Toad in a different setting/costume.
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No they wouldn't. People who aren't fans of Captain Toad just think it's og Toad who has been promoted to the rank of captain anyway. Like you're splitting hairs on something that is totally irrelevant to any potential voter. If you know the difference it's obviously just a name shortening, and if you don't you'd vote Toad anyway or you won't vote either
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hey I love SMB2 Toad. that's some bastardized non-canon Toad.
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anyway I have no idea what to make of any of these results. I can't tell if Shovel Knight is doing well or Captain Toad is bad. I can't tell if Aerith's doing as expected or what. Fox/Aerith, who knows.
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also I feel like Fox is doing really poorly here, but that's because I expect Fox to crumble after the first hour.
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i was going to vote for captain toad, but since it was just listed as toad i had to assume it was regular toad dressed as the captain and stealing valor
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For the record give me SMB2 Toad over Captain Toad every day of the week too. But I'm a huge Toad fan and am voting him as a Toad proxy anyway.

And also that's a big part of the reason I know casual non Captain Toad playing gamers think it's Toad. I've been asked "hey are you getting Captain Toad" by a few friends now.
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Yeah, I don't know what to make of any of this.

Although round 2 is easy in this fourpack regardless.
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