Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 3

(+) Yeah! (+)

Janus5k posted...

Master Moltar posted...

Lemme just digress for a moment to say it's a little sad in hindsight the strongest Final Fantasy characters in these contests are, without exception, edgelord swordkings.

no respect for Tifa huh

always the overlooked one
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Kefka is not an edgelord swordking.

He's more like a dark overlord who doesn't need a sword because he knows magic and doesn't need edginess because he's better than you.

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah but I think there's limits on what some of these characters can do. Sans and Bayonetta aren't winning this unless their opponents really screw up. Their ceiling is lower.

lol
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Round 1 Magus vs. Vincent Valentine

Moltars Analysis

What a fantastic match. These two have a very similar contest history. Magus had a very strong debut, famously putting up 35% on Link back in 2003. However, since he failed to beat Knuckles a couple years later, hes somehow managed to find new lows, including losing to a bag of sand. Just as Magus started to decline, Vincent made his debut and went on the rise. He contended with Noble Niners for years and was definitely considered an elite while Magus was stinking it up.

Then 2013 came along and it all came crashing. Vincent didnt look like his old self after a weak performance against KOS-MOS. Then, he definitely didnt look like his old self in Round 2. Thanks to picture sabotage, he lost not only to Mewtwo, but also to Phoenix Wright. Ouch.

Well, Vincent does have a chance to redeem himself this year as he takes on known fraud Magus. Magus has just had too many poor showings for me to give him a chance here. Vincent just has one bad match, and theres a good reason behind that performance. Until he starts flopping again, Im willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Moltars Bracket: Vincent

Moltars Prediction: Vincent 61%

transiences Analysis

Okay forget Magus. We don't need to talk about him other than to say, "hey, Chrono Trigger, it's about damn time we got to see it."

Let's talk about Vincent. Vincent had a super weird match in 2013, involving a super weird Pokemon character and Phoenix goddamn Wright, and we kinda all wrote him off. I think there was a weird picture involved too but I have a poor memory for small minutia of recent contests these days.

I bet everyone is picking Auron despite the fact that Vincent has shown the heck out for over a decade. (I mean, I did too. But after the bracket locked down, I looked over this and said, "did I really think that through?") This dude beat Squall and Ganondorf. Other characters from his game haven't fallen off a cliff.

I trust the body of work over the one weird three-way anomaly. Just remember after this match that you probably think Magus would beat Lucina.

transience's prediction: Vincent with 64.67%
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Leonharts Analysis

The fact that this match exists at all is a masterful stroke of genius by SBAllen. These are two characters who were once thought to be the #10 character on this site by many people (although Magus is a fraud was my original campaign to expose an overrated character!), and theyve both fallen on hard times. For Vincent, it was mostly just the last contest, so even though the results were bad, Im almost willing to give him a pass for various reasons that are well known at this point. Magus just hasnt been the same since losing to Knuckles in 2005, bottoming out when he lost to a literal bag of sand in 2008.

Now there are some people who look at Chrono Triggers performance in 2015 (and Kefka and Terras performances in this contest, although thats just kind of being oblivious to recent contests!) and think it will extend to its characters, at least to a degree. Now I wouldnt be surprised if this is the strongest Magus weve seen in a while as a result, but I think hed still need Vincent to have fallen even further since 2013 to win. Im not willing to bet on that. If Vincent does somehow lose this match, itll have to go down as the biggest fall from grace in contest history, as he will have gone from beating Crono to losing to Magus.

Leonharts Vote: Vincent Valentine

Leonharts Prediction: Vincent Valentine with 60.15%

Kleenexs Analysis

A matchup that went from debated in 2005, to not even close for the next 10 years, back to being somewhat debatable again today. Vincent would have to fallen absurdly hard to lose to Magus. The 2013 results are a mess, but he certainly looked awful back then. And Chrono Trigger looked like a legit monster in 2015. If any of that carries over to its character, I think you might be able to make a reasonable argument for Magus here. Im not ballsy enough to take that gamble, but I wouldnt be completely stunned if Vincent gets punked here.

Kleenexs Prediction: Vincent with 60%

Crew Consensus: Vincent redemption time?
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TheKoolAidShoto posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Yeah but I think there's limits on what some of these characters can do. Sans and Bayonetta aren't winning this unless their opponents really screw up. Their ceiling is lower.

lol

well he was half right at least

Master Moltar posted...

Crew Consensus: Vincent redemption time?

or is it Magus redemption time as he gets to play the role of Knuckles?!?!?!?!?
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Vincent was my gut pick, then I changed to Magus due to CT doing well in the games contest and Vincent's poor 2013 performance, then I changed back to Vincent because it just felt right, probably because of Magus's history of stinkbombs.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Vincent declined independently of the rest of FFVII. Remember Vincent was a pretty big deal in the 2000s, enough to even get his own spin-off game. Much of that hype has probably died down since.
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Vincent could have declined independently because he's edgy teenager bait, and there are no teenagers in gameFAQSs anymore.

But if that is true then so is Auron. I have a hard time underestanding why Vincent would fall and Auron wouldn't.

I showed my sister images of both and asked who would win. She said they are the same guy, pointed out they even wear the same color and told me to flip a coin.

neither one of those characters is edgy teenager bait

Auron especially
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yeah

auron is edgy 20-something bait
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so we might have aged beyond him at this point too
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Oh crap I forgot that I was guest writer for this match. I will write one once I come home for work.
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Why's a character that just happens to be cool gotta default to edgy
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LeonhartFour posted...

neither one of those characters is edgy teenager bait

Auron especially

I believe you, but I didn't play the game so they look like that.

Specially Vincent. Like, why are his clothes torn like that?

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Specially Vincent. Like, why are his clothes torn like that?

Torn?

Oh, you're looking at Dirge of Cerberus stuff. Nobody played that.
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I don't think Auron is edgy at all even with just his design

Vincent yeah maybe
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For what it's worth, 2013 was before Lucina was announced for Smash 4.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

For what it's worth, 2013 was before Lucina was announced for Smash 4.

Oh, was it? Huh, for some reason, I thought she was already announced by that point.

So I guess she'll probably do better than I said.
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plus Fire Emblem Heroes

though I imagine the majority of people playing that already knew about her
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my thing with Lucina is, has any Smash character gone under 40% yet? Ill believe in a blowout when I see it. Auron could be the BB to Lucinas Ridley here.
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Well, Ridley is stronger than Lucina and Auron is stronger than BB.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Ridley is stronger than Lucina

Unconvinced tbh

He's stronger than 2013 Lucina for sure but were they in the bracket I'd have had to think long and hard about it
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Well, without the Noble Nine, the field is a lot more even, so we're not going to see as many lopsided matches anyway.

But Auron/Lucina is the first match where the Smash character is just clearly outmatched by their opponent, so we'll see. Big Boss at least had the excuse of not having the ideal picture.
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we didnt think Ridley was outmatched?
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not to this extent
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Let me rephrase things: Lucina is not as strong as Ike and Ike would struggle to get 40% on Auron. Fire Emblem on this site has consistently been weak if it doesn't have major Smash backing to prop it up, and Lucina is nowhere near as popular a Smash character as Ike (or Marth) is.

For reference, this is a pure Fire Emblem character versus a much weaker FFX character:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5220-character-battle-ix-division-9-round-1-block-vs-lyndis-vs
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Id take Ike to get 40 on Auron. I digress though.

I guess Hayabusa isnt technically out of this one yet?
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transcience posted...

Id take Ike to get 40 on Auron. I digress though.

I guess Hayabusa isnt technically out of this one yet?

He's actually starting to consistently cut after stalling for several hours during the night and morning. Maybe the Xbox day vote isn't dead yet...!
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Lucina is probably stronger than Lyn. Probably moreso than Auron is vs Rikku at this point.
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the anti-ramza
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BTW I already sent in my guest analysis for Frog's match, so no procrastinating on my part!
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Round 1 Shulk vs. Sub-Zero

Moltars Analysis

After Scorpions performance earlier in Round 1, expectations for Subby have been lowered. Sub-Zero is the stronger of the two, and Shulk is definitely no Pikachu, so I dont think the final result is in jeopardy. There is reason for Scorpion to underperform there, as both Pokemon and Mortal Kombat are mainstream, but Pokemon is just more liked on the site.

Shulk and Xenoblade arent mainstream, so people that dont know him but do know Mortal Kombat wont just abandon Subby in droves. Shulk definitely has reason to be stronger since his contest debut five years ago, but Sub-Zero should still be out of his reach.

Moltars Bracket: Sub-Zero

Moltars Prediction: Sub-Zero 61%

transiences Analysis

This match scares me. It's the spitting image of Hayabusa/Simon. With the site shrinking, dudes like Shulk seem like genuine midcard type of characters while Sub-Zero feels like he would take a step back because that casual audience just doesn't exist anymore. Sub can't get free votes for being an icon like he could in previous years.

I don't have an indepth argument here, but Shulk seems like he could be right there. I'm picking Sub-Zero but not by much.

transience's prediction: Sub-Zero with 51.61%

Leonharts Analysis

This is another one of those matches that seems more debatable now than it did at first, largely because fighting game characters have been doing pretty poorly thus far. Now Sub-Zero is stronger than any of the ones weve seen so far, so Im not as worried about him, but Id at least say Shulk has a chance to win now. He didnt do so hot in CBIX, losing handily to Altair and Ratchet, but hes been in Smash since then and Xenoblade has probably gotten a little more popular in the meantime as well. I still like Sub-Zero based on his past history, but I wont be surprised at this point if Shulk makes a match of this.

Leonharts Vote: Sub-Zero

Leonharts Prediction: Sub-Zero with 59.31%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Im not really feelin it.

Kleenexs Prediction: Sub-Zero with 58%

Guests Analysis - TsunamiXXVIII

So after getting my full pick of any of the 16 matches for Divisions 3/4, I get stuck settling for the last unclaimed match for Divisions 5/6. Luckily, its one I actually feel comfortable talking about! Shulk is, relatively speaking, a new character. I mean, he received a 3-seed last contest, which sounds good but was actually part of an in-joke where 3-seeds tend to be hyped newcomers who flop horribly. (Naturally this backfired when a 3-seed won the whole thing, but we dont like to talk about that.) And generally speaking, the newer you are, the worse you are in these things. The GameFAQs Contest Era has produced, in my mind, a grand total of one viable midcarder: Amaterasu. (No, Sora doesnt actually count as the GameFAQs Contest Era; Kingdom Hearts was already out in Japan when nominations for CBI were occurring, and Lightnings presence in CBVIII means that being Japan-exclusive doesnt disqualify you from being counted.) And Shulk, in fact, lost to a fellow post-2002 character! So while I do think theres potential for Shulk to be strong for a post-2002 character, especially since hes had Smash since then and Xenoblade has been relatively popular, its not enough to overcome a proven commodity.

And is Sub-Zero ever that! Here we have a character with a history of pulling so-called upsets and absolutely no losses to characters that arent proven to be high midcarders. Lets take a look:

2006: Upsets Master Chief, loses to Auron
2007: Finishes second to Sonic twice (though his best victory in this timeframe is Gordon Freeman) before finishing last against Sonic, Squall, and Sora. This is probably his weakest performanceheck, even without Squall also in the poll to SFF him, Soras probably the weakest character Subbys lost to, which says a lot because Soras not weak.
2008: Finishes second to Auron, then third to Auron and Sonic. Aurons win over Sonic there, combined with Squall coming surprisingly close to Sonic with Sora in the poll, leads to the conclusion that Sub-Zero actually LFFs Sonic. Which I guess makes sense because outside of an arcade machine, MKII is probably most readily associated with the Genesis.
2010: Upsets Tidus, beats Roxas, loses to Samus
2013: Beats Garrus Vakarian and Frank West before finishing second in Round 2, ahead of The Boss and behind Bowser.

So in summary, characters who have finished ahead of him in a poll are Sonic 4 times, Auron 3 times, Samus, Bowser, Squall, and Sora. Thats not too shabby! But forget about past results; lets talk about the current contest. About, oh, I guess itll be eight days ago by the time this is posted, I put in my votes and was briefly shocked. Why is Pikachus percentage lower than Yoshis or Kratoss? I asked, but almost immediately I answered my own question. Oh, right, because Pikachu actually has an opponent thats worth a damn. Its actually kind of funny how many common opponents the two ninjas have, though due to all of the fourways and threeways, its tough to get a good read on their relative strengths as they only have one common 1v1 opponent. That one opponent does, however, suggest what the various fourways also hint at: Sub-Zeros the stronger one. This seems like somewhere around a doubling.

Sub-Zero with 67%

Crew Consensus: Sub-Zero wins - Fatality
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I would've fanboy picked Shulk in so many debatable matches, but noooo he had to be fed to Mr. "I'm underseeded so watch me ruin someone's day".
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KamikazePotato posted...

I would've fanboy picked Shulk in so many debatable matches, but noooo he had to be fed to Mr. "I'm underseeded so watch me ruin someone's day".

I feel like Charizard's making a run at that title now too
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Im going way under you guys here. prepare for some wonky results!
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well like I said there's reason to believe in Shulk now

but now I'm kinda wishing I had gone a little lower
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I think it's more likely that Shulk gets blasted than gets upper 40%. He has a lot of ground to make up from 2013.
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so uh this didn't occur to me until I saw someone bring it up somewhere else

is Aqua in big trouble now
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I think Aqua has a better chance but honestly yea she might be
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Tokoyami posted...

I think Aqua has a better chance but honestly yea she might be

Everyone in Aqua's 4-pack is female so she doesn't even have that going for her. She looks more anime than Quiet, but KOS-MOS has her beat there.

I have heard that there's a possibility that there'll be some sorta Kingdom Hearts thing that if I'm getting the dates right will happen on the day of Aqua's first match.

https://www.khinsider.com/news/Shinji-Hashimoto-will-be-a-part-of-a-panel-at-Lucca-Comics-Games-in-November-13620

The relevant part being "Kingdom Hearts Executive Producer Shinji Hashimoto will be present at the event for a special panel. Details on the panel have not been released, however it will take place on Saturday November 3rd 2018 at the Auditorium San Francesco."
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Lopen's Unofficial Analysis x4

Auron v Lucina

I think Lucina is going to gain a lot from the last contest. Smash gave her apperance since, and Heroes, while largely marketed to Fire Emblem fans to begin with, has a big enough footprint that I think a Lucina that's highly used in the game could see a slight boost there too.

On the other hand, Auron is really strong and I don't expect him to drop, so he'll be at no risk of actually losing. A modest 60-40 makes sense to me here.

Auron with 60.38%

Magus v Vincent

I have a bad feeling about this one. Vincent looked kinda crappy last contest, and this contest has largely seemed to be an extension of that. Let's ignore the stupid Phoenix Wright pic sabotage match and just check out the round 1 of Vincent. He didn't even come close to doubling KOS-MOS. Compare with the numbers Magus put up on Otacon, and I think we've got every reason to question this result.

In fact the more I think about it, the more I feel like Magus SFFing the win here is a real possibility, but I don't want to pick Magus for the sake of picking Magus. It's just not my style. Vincent should be considered the favorite, but not a convincing one.

Vincent with 52.08%

Shulk v Sub-Zero

Here's another one I'm questioning, largely because Scorpion looked kinda pathetic. I know Sub-Zero is a bit above Scorpion, but I've always found their relative worth difference to be a bit overexaggerated. I think Sub has just had better bracket placements to exploit things like anti-votes and apathy than Scorpion ever has.

Scorpion probably beats Shulk too, as just Smash probably isn't enough, but I wouldn't be super surprised to see this one go the other way.

Sub-Zero with 55.10%

Claire v Ren Amamiya

Jill held up relatively well vs Fox, and Chris sorta did to his opponent as well upon further reflection, so Claire probably isn't garbage this year. Unfortunately that means Ren Amamiya, with or without the name "Joker," is not going to be up to the task. The name could swing a good 5%, but dude is gonna be losing by much more than 5%

Claire Redfield with 64.17% (drop by 5% on the moral victory column if he's listed as Joker I suppose but I'm putting the official prediction at this.)
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Lopen posted...

Compare with the numbers Magus put up on Otacon, and I think we've got every reason to question this result.

so are you trying to argue that Otacon isn't total garbage?
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I think Otacon vs KOS-MOS would be worth discussing at the very least. Probably not higher than a 55-45 KOS.
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Otacon let Jade Curtiss get 35% on him
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According to The Show, Smash people don't give a damn about Shulk.

I think Sub-Zero is safe.

people also said that Smash fans hate Bayonetta and

well
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According to an actual Smash fan, they're wrong.

He's not winning, but that's not the best argument to make.
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Every bit of shade you want to throw at Jade Curtiss can equally be used to dehype Vincent, you realize!
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Lopen posted...

Every bit of shade you want to throw at Jade Curtiss can equally be used to dehype Vincent, you realize!

KOS-MOS didn't let Dunban get 35% on her so not really
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