Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

Big Bob posted...

Can someone tell me how Metal Man became a board meme?

HaRRicH has been trying to get him into the contest for years just so we can see how a Robot Master would do.

And we're about to find out. I feel like if you narrow the focus of Mega Man, it gets weaker and weaker. You need to go broad and Metal Man isn't broad.
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Just gonna toss in here, as another perpetual lurker, that these Crew writeups are super cool and entertaining. I look forward to them every contest. Thanks for all the hard work y'all put in!

what would be broad for a robot master? metal man is probably #1 on that depth chart, because the first thing anyone thinks of when they think of mega man weapons is the metal blade. I do kinda feel like the alternative to mega man should be proto man though, and we've gotten that a few times already.
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The point is you can't go broad on a Robot Master since most of them are only in a single game. When you narrowed Mega Man games down to individual games in Games Contests, they were all pretty middling. Mega Man as a series and Mega Man characters as a whole are pretty strong.

I've seen HaRR say that Metal Man's ceiling is Protoman like you did, and I just can't see that.
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Wesker may not be able to break 75% on many characters but I do feel he can break 75% on sunglasses, at least, so it almost worked

But yeah I don't think Metal Man is touching Protoman. Dr Wily definitely feels like the proper ceiling to me.
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Big Bob posted...

Can someone tell me how Metal Man became a board meme?

The people demanded it and SBAllen saw a wave so big it washed out the fact Metal Man wasn't included in the nomination database.

MetalmindStats, you make me proud. Sharp guy!
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For those who want a final look at my original pitch ALMOST EXACTLY FIVE YEARS AGO TODAY:

11/3/13
+ Nominate METAL MAN! [Character Battle 20XX]

Welcome to the official Metal Man rally: where men become Men.

http://tinyurl.com/kmnvtgn
http://tinyurl.com/payzqkw
http://tinyurl.com/k92uzxl

Its time we see a Robot Master. Mega Man-games are awesome largely because of its great casts of bosses, right? Metal Man is an iconic RM from Mega Man 2, the most classic MM-game. Hes the man we need to cut this streak and get one into a contest!

Sure, hes a memorable boss from a legendary series known for its focus on bosses...but maybe youre not sold yet. Thats okay -- his legend goes beyond that. Defeating him gave you the power of Metal Blade, which famously wrecked most of your enemies in this difficult game. This power encouraged savvy players to fight him first, then use his power through-out the rest of their quest.

Yeah, but does anybody actually like him? Se7enthrusts most recent Save My Mega Man Boss-contests suggest people care about Metal Man. He lost to Pharaoh Man in one championship, but he also redeemed himself in another championship when he skunked Air Man 59-0. Since Metal Man was the only RM to make it to the end of both contests and MM2s cast had the most support of any MM-game, Metal Man looks like Board 8s safest choice.

Metal Man can also rock in a contest. In fact, his timing is perfect since Mega Man just had his best Character Battle yet; he beat Charizard despite Zeros LFF and nearly beat Mewtwo + Pikachu COMBINED in a year of Pokemania, so MM-nostalgia is strong today. The fan-reaction to Capcoms apathy, success of Mighty No. 9s Kickstarter, and addition of Mega Man in SSB4 support this notion too.

Speaking of SSB4, did you know Nintendo showed off Metal Man and Metal Blade first in Mega Mans power-montage?

http://tinyurl.com/loqryp8
http://tinyurl.com/lfy3xm6
http://tinyurl.com/ooegtvq
http://tinyurl.com/okjs4en

Lets be real: Mega Man, Mega Man X, and Zero are probably out of reach in a contest...but heres my bold prediction: Metal Man will be the next strongest Mega Man-character, which means hed have to beat Proto Man. The argument is simple: the role of Robot Master is more iconic, MM2 >> MM3, and Metal Man even sneaks into MM3 to steal some spotlight. I dont expect MM9-DLC, MM10, and a whistle to save Blues here. If Metal > Proto, that means Metal Man could have scored the upset on Ike this past contest...or even challenged Epona!

Even if he falls short of Proto Man, its hard to imagine Metal Man bombing. Hed definitely beat Dr. Wily, for example; RMs are much more anticipated than Dr. Wilys fights and a lot of players dont complete many MM-games, so recurring eyebrow-raises arent enough. Pit him against Servbot, and youd see a certain 2002-result get exposed. Like any worthwhile character, he could at least crush Sigma and Roll combined. Metal Man has some range, but he wont go too low -- he beats these other MM-reps weve seen before.

Character Battle 20XX: you know who to pick first.

http://tinyurl.com/p5l7wzo

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oh I dont think metal mans ceiling is protoman just that he seems a better classic mm alternative to mega.
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I thought N fans would be able to turn the most glacial lead increase in contest history around but I guess not!
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that matchs map is pretty cool. its basically NA vs. the world, and for once, NA lost
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Expected results, so far.
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barring a rally: next
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go my ammy
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Well, it was worth a try :(

Metal M A N: the winner in our hearts!

hahahahaha I couldn't help but laugh when I saw that Ammy result

Draven might finish dead last instead of Cayde-6
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We do have a 6 day Thanksgiving break during this contest where we won't have any contest matches going on, so maybe a Cayde-6/Draven bonus match during the break would be interesting to see. It might even be a case where the winner overperforms what the final raw x-stats say should happen because of Voter Apathy Factor.

Although Voter Apathy Factor would only come into play if we decide to run more than one bonus match at the same time. Voters would otherwise abstain from Cayde-6/Draven if it's the only match currently running.
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If we're going to have any sort of joke bonus poll, it has to be Draven/Sans.
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6 bonus polls are better than 1

That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.
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I could think of 6.
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LusterSoldier posted...

That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.

Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.
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scaryice posted...

LusterSoldier posted...

That is, if we can even think of 6 bonus polls to run during the Thanksgiving break.

Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.

Metal Man agrees with a smirk on his face.
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scaryice posted...

Favorite Mega Man 2 robot master.

I doubt Allen would want to do any bonus polls that involve characters not in the bracket, as he would need to do match pictures for the other Robot Masters not named Metal Man.

It would be possible to do 6 days of Mega Man 2 Robot Master polls through a weird format of 1 match per day in round 1, then run both round 2 matches on Day 5, and the final on Day 6.
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I'd like Metal Man vs Metal Sonic honestly.
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MasterMoltar posted...

Man, what the heck is that Lara pic? Shes lucky everyone already knows who she is and shes facing a weak first round opponent.

How do you mean? She looks exactly like she does in the new games. Unless you're implying that all new game style pics are bad?
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not a great day for dear old Guest today
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I just think it's a bad-looking pic.
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it's ok guest will get the ammy accuracy point

and that's the only challenge that matters of course

Only Peru has Draven winning. Told you these guys were weird.

And two other countries but it's very likely they're made up of one dude each lol.
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I'm not really sure what to make of this Seph performance... it's right on target for what we all predicted and yet I can't help but feel underwhelmed. just another day with Sephiroth I guess.
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Lopen posted...

Sixty? Come on.

My percentage is going to be closer even if Richter doesn't actually win.

Sixty percent good lord.

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@Master_Moltar

We're getting close to the end of round 1, so you'll want to post a new topic for Guest sign-ups for round 2.
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Richter will cut the percent overnight

Get it below sixty please
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transience posted...

I'm not really sure what to make of this Seph performance... it's right on target for what we all predicted and yet I can't help but feel underwhelmed. just another day with Sephiroth I guess.

Yeah, I think we all know that Sephiroth isn't coming back, so we can't help but compare it to what he used to do.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7290

Tifa gets a big win.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7291

Mewtwo does okay in his match.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7292

Ocelot barely squeaks by Dedede.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7293

MMX crushes.

Crew Predictions: 50/56

Next Round Thoughts: Tifa/Mewtwo looking far less debatable than it did pre-contest. MMX coasts to R3.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 51
Moltar: 49
Leonhart: 47
Kleenex: 45
Guest: 44

Crew Accuracy Challenge: garetha200 gets the point for Tifa, Moltar gets the point for Mewtwo, Leonhart gets the point for Ocelot, and Leonhart gets the point for MMX.

Guest: 16 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (3), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen)
transience: 13
Moltar: 11
Kleenex: 9
Leonhart: 8
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Moltar I'm sorry
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the comeback begins...again
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LeonhartFour posted...

If we're going to have any sort of joke bonus poll, it has to be Draven/Sans.

I feel like Sans would win that pretty handily.

I mean, the Undertale people did their job. We got mad at them for ruining our contest, but we did check out their game.
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I'm pretty sure Draven would lose to anyone else in the bracket. Even Cayde-6.

garetha is a genius
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Round 1 Ryu vs. Lloyd Irving

Moltars Analysis

Ryu gonna be known as the Tales beater soon. He beat Yuri from Vesperia 5 years ago, and now hes got Lloyd from Symphonia. Fighting game characters havent looked great, but Ryu is the strongest and most iconic. Lloyd isnt going to challenge him here.

Moltars Bracket: Ryu

Moltars Prediction: Ryu 66%

transiences Analysis

I kinda laugh whenever I see the name Lloyd Irving. It just reminds me of an older, simpler time when he mattered.

Why is Lloyd here and Kratos Aurion not? I doubt it matters at this point as they're probably about the same. I haven't been very impressed by Street Fighter guys so far. I guess there's a chance that Ryu struggles next round so it'd be nice to see a good number here. Fortunately: Lloyd Irving.

transience's prediction: Ryu with 68.66%

Leonharts Analysis

Im kind of impressed Lloyd still makes the contest every year even though he hasnt won a thing since beating Wesker in 2005. Even Vyse and Laharl have eventually fallen by the wayside, but Lloyd remains. Ryu shouldnt have any problems going big here, although Im not sure exactly how high hed have to go before I start taking any talk of upsetting Sephiroth seriously.

Leonharts Vote: Ryu

Leonharts Prediction: Ryu with 71.44%

Kleenexs Analysis

What a world we live in where a Tales character won a match, and its not going to be Lloyd. For whatever reason, Symphonia still has some strength around here, and as a result I dont think Lloyd ends up looking all that bad. Ive actually thought Ryu has looked a little weak for a while now (relatively to expectations, of course), but hes still plenty of steps higher than Lloyd and isnt in any danger in this match.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ryu with 65%

Crew Consensus: Ryu wins by KO.
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Round 1 Commander Shepard vs. King K. Rool

Moltars Analysis

Is King K. Rool in Smash?



oh yeah he is gg opponent



wait this is COMMANDER SHEPARD



goddammit thats actually winnable for him

Everything from Smash has been competing with anything thats not at least a midcarder. Shepard used to be pretty legit, but with the ME series dead, and after seeing Garrus struggle not too long ago, this match is in doubt. Its yet another case of has Smash character boosted enough/has irrelevant character fallen enough. These are basically coinflips at this point.

Going to stick with Shepard but Ive pretty much accepted this could go either way in the year 2018.

Moltars Bracket: Shepard

Moltars Prediction: Shepard 53%

transiences Analysis

There's this weird 1% chance that Rool ends up doing what Simon did, where Shepard is trash because Mass Effect is in the gutter. That would be kinda sad, though. If that happened I'd have to reevaluate every Nintendo vs. not Nintendo matchup in the contest. Shepard should win here, but he probably doesn't blow KKR out too bad just because he's the new smash thing. Even if he kinda sucks compared to others. In a normal environment, Lloyd should probably be about equal to KKR so it'll be interesting to see how this stacks up to Ryu.

transience's prediction: Shepard with 64.26%

Leonharts Analysis

Ive seen some people talking about an upset here after the general Nintendo boost and Garruss narrow victory over Ramza, but I just dont see it. I think Shepard will hold up a little better than all the other Mass Effect squadmates just from being the face of the franchise, and K. Rool is still going to be pretty weak regardless. He wasnt in the DKC Returns games, so hes not going to receive any benefit from that like it seems DK has. I think Lucina is showing us that just being in Smash without much else to your name isnt going to automatically turn you into a powerhouse. Now Shepard might not do as well as he would have in previous years, but he still shouldnt be threatened.

Leonharts Vote: Commander Shepard

Leonharts Prediction: Commander Shepard with 62.10%
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Kleenexs Analysis

SmashFEAR is real and Shepard better watch his back. Yes, I realize Dedede lost the other day (or did he? Im writing this in the middle of the match), but theres no doubt that going up against a Nintendo product not named Isabelle is a frightening thing. I cant imagine K. Rool is really worth all that much, but given the tenor of this contest, who knows. Shepard has almost assuredly lost a step. Hes definitely better than faceless Western RPG protagonist, but I fear this match is going to be too close for comfort, especially given Mass Effects supposed decline. Im still taking Shep Shep, but this likely wont be the commanding victory he should have.

Kleenexs Prediction: Shepard with 54%

Guests Analysis - DoctorJimmy133

The common line of reasoning for this match is as follows: The Mass Effect trilogy ended six years ago, and Garrus disappointed against Ramza; therefore, Commander Shepard will be weaker. King K. Rool ended up in Smash; however, this puts him in a similar position to Diddy Kong in 2008 and the 2010 vote-ins where Diddy looked bad, showing himself to be well below Captain Falcon and Midna in the Nintendo hierarchy. Furthermore, K. Rool will not be affected by the DKCR boost that Donkey got and may be even weaker than Diddy due to his being a villain rather than a player character, and lacking many Mario spinoff appearances. Shepard may look bad compared to 2013 because of a general Nintendo boost and western gaming deboost, but an upset is not really in question.

That about sum it up?

Shep wins with 59.16%

Confidence: 97%

Crew Consensus: Shepard rools.
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Heck yeah 3 for 3 accuracy points! If only I had this kind of accuracy on today's Oracle picks...

whoa, some serious range on king k tool of all dudes

my phone corrected rool to tool and im sticking with it
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that's the power of SmashFEAR
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I'm less worried about k tool being strong and more about Shepard having fallen off a cliff
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Well, even if Shepard has dropped (and he probably has), I probably still take Shepard over Ocelot and Dedede over K. Rool.

Or at least Dedede/K. Rool are pretty close.
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Yeah, I'd probably agree, which is why I still have him winning, even if not by a ton.
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Submitted my guest analysis for Leon/DK.
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