Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 4

(+) Yeah! (+)

Yeah, I think (with the big exception of Solid Snake who is the exception to everything), Smash boosts for third party characters are pretty fleeting. Sonic got one when he was announced for Brawl in 2007 and went straight back to sucking in 2008.
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Sonic got one when he was announced for Brawl in 2007 and went back to sucking the next round
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I just think your smash boost is inversely proportional to your popularity. Ryu's already really well known. King K Rool is, well, is that even a real character?
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Let's not forget that K. Rool has a win over Ezio!

You laugh until you realize K. Rool could actually do that right now.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Sonic got one when he was announced for Brawl in 2007 and went back to sucking the next round

nah Squall would've beaten him in 2007 without that

as evidenced by how easily Auron beat Sonic in 2008
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Wasn't Squall being held by back Sora and punted by Snake in the Squall/Sonic matches?
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Wasn't Squall being held by back Sora and punted by Snake in the Squall/Sonic matches?

I don't believe Snake LFF'd Squall or anything if that's what you're implying.

Square fans absolutely abandoned Sora to help Squall win though because that's literally the only Squall/Sora match where Squall SFF'd him.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Lopen posted...

I'd rather sacrifice Shep to Ezio status and have Ryu 70-30 him. King K. Rool being strong I cannot accept this

it's only temporary

Ultimate Deboost for CBXI bank on it

Smash 6 hype will be happening by the time we get CBXI!!
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.
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ZenOfThunder posted...

.

Legendary
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lol me for announcing I was 97% confident Shepard would win in my writeup even though no one asked for that information
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well for what it's worth you're going to be right
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7294

Seph doesn't look too great in victory.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7295

Falcon moreso splits with Richter than SFFs him.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7296

Ammy crushes Draven.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7297

Lara looks fine against Metal Man.

Crew Predictions: 54/60

Next Round Thoughts: Seph and Ammy should be fine next round.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 55
Moltar: 53
Leonhart: 51
Kleenex: 49
Guest: 46

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Kleenex gets the point for Seph, Leonhart gets the point for Falcon, paulg235 gets the point for Ammy, and Kleenex gets the point for Lara.

Guest: 17 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (3), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen, paulg235)
transience: 13
Moltar: 11
Kleenex: 11
Leonhart: 9
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transience posted...

Shepard will still win this, but this is hilariously sad. it'll be like the Dedede match where Rool will just stop gaining after an hour and Shepard will use all of his might to win by like 300 votes.

its kinda sad how predictable these smash matches are - I dont think Ocelot and Shepard is close but theyd probably both land at the same percentages vs dedede and kkr.
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We were doing this long before this contest. We would literally call matches for the character currently losing because the ASV was going to bury the other one.
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yeah but these smash matches are all exactly the same. you don't even need to wait 10 minutes!
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Round 2 Dante vs. Lightning

Moltars Analysis

Dante
Round 1 - 71.59% vs. Cuphead

Lightning
Round 1 - 74.19% vs. Chloe Price

Who accidentally let this non-FF6/7/10 character into Round 2? Thankfully Dante is here to take care of this error.

Dont let that performance from Lightning fool you, shes still not all that strong, Chloe is just very weak. Dante looked okay, but not great in R1, so I dont expect him to go huge here. Still, he shouldnt be threatened by Lightning of all characters.

Moltars Bracket: Dante

Moltars Prediction: Dante 62%

transiences Analysis

Round 2! There's a statistical argument to be made about Lightning putting up a fight here, having beaten fodder worse than Dante could beat a similar-ish fodder. There's always this foreboding feeling that a guy like Dante could fall apart when facing competition from a bigger company like Square.

But it's Lightning, and Dante's so much bigger than she is. She might be able to keep it kinda close -- like under 55% or something? -- but I can't fathom a scenario where Dante's actually in trouble. Chances are he beats her and makes Chloe look like total garbage.

transience's prediction: Dante with 61.99%

Leonharts Analysis

Now its time to see how strong Lightning is (or isnt)! Dante didnt look super impressive against Cuphead, so if he cant find a way to go high here, hes dead in the water next round. Well, he probably is anyway. I think hed have to beat Lightning worse than he beat Cuphead to make me think hes even got a chance against Ganondorf because it would make his first round match not seem so bad, and he (probably) wont.

Leonharts Vote: Lightning

Leonharts Prediction: Dante with 63.65%

Kleenexs Analysis

Yay round 2, boo still 4 matches a day. We start off with an easy one. Im satisfied with Lightning finally getting a win, but she is toast here. Given how poorly the non-top tier Final Fantasy characters have looked, this might get a little rough, despite the beatdown she gave in Round 1. This might help gauge Dante a little better too because Im not entirely sure how to take his first round result yet (but it doesnt matter because hes not beating Ganon LOL!)

Kleenexs Prediction: Dante with 64%
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Guests Analysis - SuperNiceDog





Can Lightning pull off the impossible? I think theres a chance. Lightning was one of the bigger stars of Round 1, overperforming the Oracle by more than 10 percent:



In a sea of mostly disappointing performances from the FF characters in round 1(Noctis, Vincent, Zidane, Cecil, Tidus, Sora, Sephiroth), Lightning STRONGLY went against that trend. In fact, outside of Kefka, that trend seemed to only affect male FF characters. Overall, the FF females did great.(Yuna, Aerith, Terra, Lightning).

Meanwhile, Dante under-performed Oracle expectations by 3.5%. Do voters on this site REALLY care about the new Devil May Cry 3 game as of November 3rd 2018? All I hear about is Smash Ultimate talk and Overwatch hype due to Blizzcon.



Dante is someone that Lightning is capable of overcoming. Lightning is strong now, most of the hate that she endured during the height of her games popularity(2010-2014) I believe was transferred over to Noctis, and now she actually has a good amount of respect on this site. You saw it in her first match vs Chloe. I dont think Chloe Price was just useless fodder. 74% is not a joke.



Lightning, in a Feb 2018 poll on reddit, was ahead of TIFA in terms of popularity! 6th overall. Tifa vs Dante would be an incredibly close match, and thus I think Lightning is going to be an extremely tough out for Dante. I am not sure who I would take Tifa vs Lightning right now, its that close in my mind. I know most of you would take Tifa easily(~57%), but not me. It is not 2013 anymore.

And I want to discuss one further issue, a controversial one. Women are over- performing expectations in this contest, at least so far. Tifa(+3% vs Oracle), Claire(upsetting Ren who was Guru favorite), Bayonetta(+14% vs Oracle expectation), Jill(+3% vs Oracle), Zelda(+6 vs Oracle), Terra(+10% vs Oracle), Shantae(+3%), 2b(+8% vs Oracle), Yuna(+3%), Velvet(+9%), Aya(+6%), and Lightning(+10%) as discussed previously. Aqua is also doing well right now(65% against Quiet in a debated match). That is 13 women who over-performed.

This is against 4 female characters who have flopped: Primrose(-4%), Monika(-10%), Peach(-3%), and Isabelle(-5%).

The rest of the female characters(Lucina, Rosalina, Aerith, D.Va) basically did as expected(+/- 2% vs Oracle expectation). So 13 women did better than expected, 4 performed about as expected, and 4 did worse. There may be a pro-female empowerment vote effect due to lingering effects of the 2016 US election(because Hillary did not get elected, lets make up for it by voting for W).

Theres just enough of a reasonable argument to be made for Lightning that Im going with the upset. Yea I could be boring and say Dante wins with 58% like you crew members will say, but I just cant do it. Lightning is just too cool, the last great FF character that Squares created since 2010.





It's not a question of can or can't. There are some things in life you just do.

Lightning wins with 50.4% of the vote

Odds of Lightning winning: 24%

Crew Consensus: Dante out-styles Lightning.
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Guest is gonna end up like 20 points behind the crew

and still win the accuracy thing due to wild picks
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Spoiler: I did not pick DK over Leon.
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Leon vs DK is scaring the shit out of me for battle challenge.

LinkMarioSamus posted...

Spoiler: I did not pick DK over Leon.

You are not living the dream, then!

ZeldaTPLink posted...

Leon vs DK is scaring the shit out of me for battle challenge.

Scaring me a little too TBH. I picked a close result.
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Round 2 Chun-Li vs. Ganondorf

Moltars Analysis

Chun-Li
Round 1 - 56.17% vs. Spyro the Dragon

Ganondorf
Round 1 - 78.6% vs. Neku Sakuraba

Chun may have dashed her way into R2, but now the competition has a leg up on her.

Ganondorf (and Zelda) looked very strong last round, so its very possible there was a Breath of the Wild boost. If Ganon also goes big here, which I think he will, it only gives more evidence to that theory.

Moltars Bracket: Ganondorf

Moltars Prediction: Ganondorf 70%

transiences Analysis

Ganondorf should squash Chun Li. I'm not sure how ugly this gets but I won't like it. I've come around on Spyro being trash a bit, and there have been other sorta-kinda icons that have done well enough to get me to reconsider that performance. But Kirby/Guile went 74/26 and Chun's not that much above Guile.

transience's prediction: Ganondorf with 70.44%

Leonharts Analysis

Not much to say about this one. Chun-Li underwhelmed against Spyro in round 1, and Ganondorf put up one of the biggest blowouts of round 1, even if it was against a total chump in Neku. Fighting game characters havent been doing super well in this contest in general, so this one should get ugly.

Leonharts Vote: Chun-Li

Leonharts Prediction: Ganondorf with 65.90%

Kleenexs Analysis

This is a lot like the first match. Two mismatched opponents, one of which just happened to get lucky with a weak-ish opponent in round 1. I expect Ganondorf to look good. Like, no question hes going to win the division good. Im not convinced Chun-Li is all that great (and by extension, Spyro) so Im ready to see some real impressive numbers.

Kleenexs Prediction: Ganondorf with 70%

Lopen's Analysis:

I took this match because no one else wanted it. Unfortunately I seem to lack inspiration. I'll take the "over" on the age old question of whether Chun-Li is worth Guybrush Threepwood and Max Payne combined, but just barely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MATAIHXLEZ8" data-time="

Please accept this 30 second video as an apology from me, on behalf of Chun-Li, for not having an interesting enough match to discuss to dignify some sorta elaborate match write-up. It's more entertaining than any actual analysis on this match would be anyway.

Lopen's Prediction:
Ganondorf with 65.17%

Crew Consensus: Sparta Kick > Spinning Bird Kick
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@Leonhart4 is your body ready for the LIGHTNINGGGG?


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Round 2 Vivi vs. Aya Brea

Moltars Analysis

Vivi
Round 1 - 74.89% vs. Yu Narukami

Aya
Round 1 - 59.56% vs. Victor Sullivan

So Vivi looked just as good as he looked in 2013 in Round 1, and Vivi/Aya is a projected tripling according to that year.

Plus I wouldnt take Aya over Yu directly so...

Moltars Bracket: Vivi

Moltars Prediction: Vivi 76%

transiences Analysis

Aya Brea doesn't have many 'good' matchups, but if I had to pick the single worst one she could have gotten, it'd probably be Vivi. Vivi trumps her old-school cred and is higher on the PS1 Square totem pole. I'd probably take Yu over Aya and Vivi already tripled him. It'll be really easy to walk into round 3 vs. DK/Leon looking like the easy fave.

transience's prediction: Vivi with 76.55%

Leonharts Analysis

Stop me if youve heard this before: Vivi is about to blow out a niche RPG character. This is pretty much a repeat of his first round match against Yu Narukami. I guess the only real question here is if Vivi goes higher or lower than he did in round 1, although I think itll be probably in the same ballpark. Id be a little surprised if he went below 70% here, and it probably wouldnt speak well to his (probably already low) chances to win the division if he did.

Leonharts Vote: Aya Brea

Leonharts Prediction: Vivi with 72.02%

Kleenexs Analysis

This is a lot like the first match. Two mismatc-wait...

I think Vivi looked pretty good last round, and Aya is no doubt one of the weakest players in round 2. This has all the makings of an old-fashioned SFF beatdown, and Vivi is exactly the character to take advantage. I expect him to come out of this match looking like the favorite to make it to the division finals against Ganon.

Kleenexs Prediction: Vivi with 78%

Crew Consensus: Vivi beats another firstname lastname.
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huh, so Leonhart would take Aya over Yu, eh...
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Master Moltar posted...

Vivi beats another firstname lastname.

Will the trend continue through Ganondorf Dragmire?!
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Lopen's Unoffiicial Analysisx4

Dante v Lightning
Lightning got 74% on that indie character that half of her own possible fanbase doesn't even like. Dante got 72% on an indie cup. All things considered, this one won't be a blowout, as I feel Lightning has showed some evidence of a fanbase (getting 74% on anything without loads of anti-votes is tough), but still decisively Dante.

Dante with 63.10%

Chun-Li vs Ganondorf
Let's be a rebel and go with the under on the age old question.

Ganondorf with 65.19%

Vivi vs Aya Brea
I really don't know what to do here. Vivi slaughtered his opponent round 1, and Aya Brea... kinda slaughtered an icon in our hearts as well. After seeing Nathan Drake stink it up against tails, how much is Sully worth? Is 60% on him enough to escape total Doomsday?

... I'm talking percentage, not winner, gosh give me some credit. The answer is probably not, in any case.

Vivi with 70.39%

Leon Kennedy vs Donkey Kong
I'm just going to apply the "this guy should be outmatched, but lol SmashFAQs" template analysis to this match prediction, and move on. I'll even call the action. In a ~shock~, Donkey Kong barely leads early. Leon struggles to make any headway for the first 6 hours or so. Leon works hard and builds a modest 400 or 500 vote lead overnight. Donkey Kong stalls the rest of the day and never threatens getting the lead back. What an exciting close match that was, huh guys!!!!

Leon Kennedy with 50.93%
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Round 2 Donkey Kong vs. Leon Kennedy

Moltars Analysis

Donkey Kong
Round 1 - 56.93% vs. Tidus

Leon
Round 1 - 68.68% vs. Dragonborn

This is the only somewhat debatable match of the day. We saw all throughout Round 1 that anything Smash related has a higher floor this year. Nintendo isnt unbeatable, but most of the characters that were fodder before are competing with lower midcarders. The question now is what that boost means for characters that were already in the midcard range like DK.

Leon was the stronger of the two historically, and doesnt look to have lost a step this year based off his R1 showing. DK did dispose of Tidus pretty easily, but not easily enough to make me think that Leon is in trouble here.

With how well Nintendo is doing though, I just cant shake the fact that this is probably going to turn into another near 50/50 match with Nintendo on the losing end. I think Leon will do a little better than that.

Moltars Bracket: Leon

Moltars Prediction: Leon 55%

transiences Analysis

On day 2 of the contest, I proclaimed that I thought DK would easily beat Tidus and had a great shot to topple Leon. Since then, I've regained some faith in Leon/Resident Evil. Claire beat Joker, Leon looked decent vs. Dragonborn, Wesker didn't get destroyed by Sephiroth... I mean, if RE had any kind of a fall, it hasn't been detectable. They look about as good as the last contest. RE7 being decent probably helped.

I was all ready to pick Leon.. and then some dude named King K Rool went and pushed Shepard to what looks like a 52/48 type of match. If KKR can almost beat Shepard, what can Donkey Kong do to Leon...?

transience's prediction: Donkey Kong with 53.44%

Leonharts Analysis

When the bracket came out, this looked like a no-brainer win for Leon regardless of which character was here because hes always been a clear step above both of them. After DKs convincing win over Tidus and Smashs influence being clearly felt throughout the contest in general, theres at least some room for doubt. I still like Leon here though. He didnt show any signs of regression in round 1, and all the other Resident Evil characters have looked fine, too. This will probably be closer than I wouldve originally expected, but Leon should pull it out.

Leonharts Vote: Donkey Kong

Leonharts Prediction: Leon Kennedy with 54.45%

Kleenexs Analysis

This match, however, Im not convinced will be as much of a blowout as the first three. I dont think Leon loses, per se, but Im still not terribly impressed with him, and as much as Donkey Kong sucks ass, hes still a Nintendo character and you know how that goes. I think this could be shockingly close in the first 10 minutes or so, but Leon should be able to get ahead by enough to not really be challenged the rest of the day.

Kleenexs Prediction: Leon with 58%

Guests Analysis - LinkMarioSamus

So in 2007, Leon got 62% directly on Tidus. DK got 57% on him I think admittedly some of that is probably Tidus weakening, but at the same time Leon might be a bit weaker too. What Im saying is I think DK can give Leon a bit of a close match, so Im just going to pick the average percentage Resident Evil 4 got in its three wins in the games contest, and then subtract 5%.

My pick: Leon with 52.14%

Crew Consensus: Monkeys. Guess after this, there'll be one less to worry about.
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Thank you Transience had there been CURSE on the side of DK I feel like he'd be on the positive end of the 51-49 match because of course he would.
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Mac Arrowny posted...

huh, so Leonhart would take Aya over Yu, eh...

I mean I wouldn't be surprised if she beat him but I didn't even look at what Vivi got last round when I picked that percentage
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Yeah I don't think picking Aya to get slightly more in a 1v1 implies that anyway. Totally different dynamic at work in resisting a squash vs winning a 1v1.
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I was riding a train for most of yesterday and was playing trivia today so I had no time to do an actual writeup I am sorry all

But basically Aya should be weaker than Yu but I think that she'll overlap with Vivi less, which sounds super weird but she'll get very few jrpg fan votes and a lot more apathy type votes, which should do better against such a beloved jrpg character

So it should be somewhat of a wash cpmpared to round 1, Aya survived pretty well against Sora in 2013 so I doubt she gets killed here even against a stronger Square character

This logic might be totally wrong but I hope it's right so I keep my accuracy point streak

Vivi with 75%

I thought more people would join my side after the Shepard match. so long, suckers!
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feels like Alucard/Peach all over again because at the end of the day DK is still DK
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transcience posted...

its kinda sad how predictable these smash matches are - I dont think Ocelot and Shepard is close but theyd probably both land at the same percentages vs dedede and kkr.

Funny enough it was your own post that kinda talked me down from it actually
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DK's always been better than Peach
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Yeah I definitely am like a bigger fan of K. Rool right now than I probably ever have been.
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Also Cloud. Maining him in smash has bumped him up to basically #2 favorite FF character.
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At the end of the day it boils down to do you think Leon can get like 7% more than Tidus. To me that seems likely, though I expect the match to be artificially close.
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transience posted...

DK's always been better than Peach

And Leon's always been better than Tidus.

Alucard, too.
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pre-contest I would have thought 55-45 for Leon/Tidus? who knows
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yeah well pre-contest I thought Tidus could beat DK

the future refuses to stay the same
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But the future refused to change.
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LOL Lightning
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also Ganondorf is looking really, really bad

good news for Squall...!
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whoa go chunners

who knows with dk/leon from the first five
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Is this the year Dante is finally clutch
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Yeah, Nintendo and RE have both been pretty frontloaded so far. I think I kinda like Leon if he's already in the lead though.
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