Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

ahaha I messed up the last introduction, my bad!

Welcome to the Contest Analysis Club!

Im the president of the Club, Master Moltar! Pretty cool name, right? The club also has several other members you should meet, theyre all really fun!

First up, we have transience! Hes very reliable and social, but sometimes can be a little out of touch. Its okay though, no ones perfect.well except for me, ahaha~.

Next, theres Leonhart! Hes super smart, and the most technical member of the club. Some think he needs to make better predictions, but I like him just the way he is!

Then, theres Kleenex! Hes full of energy and super spunky! His writing style does take a while to get used to, but some people find that charming!

And those are the current members, but I didnt forget you! Whats your name?



Huh? Guest? Thats a silly name...but I like it, ahaha! Congratulations, youre the newest member of the Contest Analysis Club!



What do we do? Well, in addition to fun activities and social gatherings, were all really big fans of analyzing contests! You showed up at the perfect time too, because a Character Battle is happening now! Our club looks at each match in the Contest and does a write-up about it. In the write-up, we talk about our thoughts for each match, and give a prediction of what we think is going to happen. Then we share our write-ups with each other and the world! Its pretty fun!



Its not hard at all! Just put your pen to the paper...or keys to the keyboard as the kids say these days, ahaha. Everyone in the club has a different writing style, so its up to you to find the style that suits you best. The most important thing is to enjoy yourself here and have a good time!

Okay, everyone! I look forward to seeing how you express yourself. Ehehe~

Current Guest List: Send write-ups to [email protected]

Squall Leonhart vs. Garrus Vakarian - ZenOfThunder
The Boss vs. Zelda - ctesjbuvf
D.Va vs. Fox McCloud - Lopen
Captain Toad vs. Aerith Gainsborough - TsunamiXXVIII

Geralt vs. Simon Belmont - Janus5k
Pac-Man vs. Bayonetta - DoctorJimmy133
Auron vs. Vincent Valentine - SuperNiceDog
Sub-Zero vs. Claire Redfield - pjbasis
---

Tag
---

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7310

Red squeaks by Sora (lol kh3)

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7311

Big Boss doesn't look too hot against Crash.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7312

Alucard easily takes out Yuna.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7313

Kefka doesn't impress against Bomberman.

Crew Predictions: 68/76

Next Round Thoughts: Red/Big Boss seems like a solid win for Red at this point. Alucard/Kefka is shaping up to be very interesting as you could make a good case on both sides.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 69
Moltar: 68
Leonhart: 63
Kleenex: 61
Guest: 60

Crew Accuracy Challenge: transience gets the point for Red, transience gets the point for Big Boss, Moltar gets the point for Alucard, and Kleenex gets the point for Kefka.

Guest: 20 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133)
transience: 19
Moltar: 14
Kleenex: 14
Leonhart: 10
---

augh I'm falling behind
---

look out guest, Im coming for last place
---

dammit moltar I wanted a wire to wire win
---

Wow I didn't expect to be the low picker on Kirby.
---

Round 2 Squall Leonhart vs. Garrus Vakarian

Moltars Analysis

Squall
Round 1 - 75.88% vs. Hat Kid

Garrus
Round 1 - 50.63% vs. Ramza Beoulve

Easy stuff. The winner of Garrus/Ramza was always gonna get rocked by Squall. Ramza wouldve gotten rocked worse due to SFF, but since its Garrus he just get rocked normally.

Moltars Bracket: Squall

Moltars Prediction: Squall 66%

transiences Analysis

Not much to say here - Garrus needed 24 hours to beat Ramza, and Squall's above him. Squall started out sucking against Hat Kid of all dudes before going on an FF7-like tear. We'll see if that happens here too. I don't have much to say on this one -- if Squall can break 70 then he's looking pretty good to beat Zelda.

transience's prediction: Squall with 66.58%

Leonharts Analysis

Time for fanboy mode to activate. Nobody really expects me to give you rational, unbiased analysis here, so why pretend! Squall pretty clearly got anti-voted like an FFVII character in round 1 considering how much he rose after the freeze, so he might look bad at the beginning again, but hopefully hell have a good number by the end. Garrus narrowly beat Ramza in round 1, who is maybe at best the fifth strongest FF protagonist, and after Shepard further confirmed the death of the Mass Effect series on this site against K. Rool, it would look bad for Squalls chances next round if he doesnt go high here, so guess what Im rolling with!

Leonharts Vote: Squall Leonhart

Leonharts Prediction: Squall Leonhart with 71.44%

Kleenexs Analysis

Squall is still officially on notice. Hes definitely looking vulnerable to the potential Zelda matchup, and this would be a good time to put up a nice performance to shift favor back in his court. After seeing Garrus almost lose to Ramza and Shepard almost lose to K. Tool, its pretty clear that Mass Effect has taken a dive since the last contest. I think Squall needs to be aiming for a doubling tonight to maintain an edge over Zelda. The close this gets to 60-40, the closer Im getting ready to call that match in Zeldas favor.

Kleenexs Prediction: Squall with 66%

Guests Analysis - ZenOfThunder



ZenOfThunder's Prediction: Squall with 66.46%



Crew Consensus: See the above gifs
---

wow that clustering

wow those gifs
---

whoa phoenix blew up overnight. not bad!
---

Phoenix winning a difficult match and taking half the day to start soaring.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

Oh boy, this is going to be a fun rest of the day

Hold it, Phoenix!
---

Round 2 The Boss vs. Zelda

Moltars Analysis

The Boss
Round 1 - 56.52% vs. Metal Sonic

Zelda
Round 1 - 75.33% vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze

After the Ganon match, there is a chance that Zelda gets exposed here. Tripling Ezio is way more impressive than what Ganon did on Neku, but still, The Boss could surprise.

But most likely she wont because MGS hasnt looked good at all this year.

Moltars Bracket: Zelda

Moltars Prediction: Zelda 65%

transiences Analysis

Let's take a quick pre-match gut check: who's stronger, Garrus or The Boss? I would go with The Boss, I think, and if Zelda outdoes Squall's percentage, some upset hype should get going. Zelda feels like she should be pretty good after Breath of the Wild, and with the site being so Nintendo-heavy right now.

transience's prediction: Zelda with 66.12%

Leonharts Analysis

Its time again for a Zelda character to get exposed by a low midcarder after a high percentage in round 1! Or at least thats what Im hoping happens! I do think theres a good chance that happens, but on the same note, Zelda had more reason to boost from Breath of the Wild because shes an actual character instead of being CALAMITY GANON. I do think The Boss is perennially underrated, too, even as Metal Gear Solid keeps underperforming left and right in this contest, so I need her to show it here! Prove your loyalty! Finish your mission!

Leonharts Vote: The Boss

Leonharts Prediction: Zelda with 57.98%

Kleenexs Analysis

On the flip side, Im not really sure what numbers I want to see out of Zelda here. Im not entirely certain where to peg The Boss at this point. Metal Gear characters havent exactly been lighting up the world either, so I would expect to see something fairly high here. I think The Boss is almost definitely stronger than Garrus at this point, so if Zelda outdoes Squall by a significant margin today, then get ready to sound the alarms.

Kleenexs Prediction: Zelda with 67%

Guests Analysis - ctesjbuvf

This match was never in any doubt. If possible, trends this contest has only made it even more of a lock than it was. Zelda is probably gonna look really good here. It's tough to tell just where The Boss is. MGS in
general looks weaker, but it's still hard to say how much especially because horrible match pictures have been a good part of it. Metal Sonic has never been in the field before, so we don't know just how weak he is. The Boss used to be incredibly weak, then actually looked impressive enough last contest, but now MGS has unimpressed a few times. Not expecting this match to give a great idea of how much MGS has fallen, but maybe it'll help a bit. A fair goal for The Boss should be to avoid the doubling I think, which I'll predict she just manages to after getting doubled for some of the day. In other words, a day of the typical Nintendo vs. non-Nintendo we've seen this contest.

The Boss - 35.02%
Zelda - 64.98%

Crew Consensus: Zelda is the boss in this match
---

Maybe I should stop writing these directly into my mail program, it makes new lines in weird places.
---

you know, mid-60s is pretty high for Zelda. very few guys have doubled a notable character this year. if I had my pick back Id probably go more like 61.
---

ctesjbuvf posted...

Maybe I should stop writing these directly into my mail program, it makes new lines in weird places.

I thought this was just me. GMail?
---

I feel bad about going back on 2B because Ness sucks, but I'm glad I stuck to my faith I Phoenix.

It's been a long time since a contest result has made me this happy (assuming he holds on and it looks like he will).
---

---

ZenOfThunder posted...

.

Have been waiting for something like this from Zen

Friends DVD I love it
---

.
---

ctesjbuvf posted...

Maybe I should stop writing these directly into my mail program, it makes new lines in weird places.

usually i catch and fix them but i was in a rush this morning and missed it my bad
---

Round 2 D.Va vs. Fox McCloud

Moltars Analysis

D.Va
Round 1 - 52.94% vs. Aloy

Fox
Round 1 - 54.10% vs. Jill Valentine

The winner of Dva/Aloy was always going to be the underdog here. Fox didnt do too great against Jill, but Id take Jill over both Dva and Aloy so

If this is close, the Overwatch fanbase is likely to push their character to a win. I think Fox will put this away relatively easily and quickly though.

Moltars Bracket: Fox

Moltars Prediction: Fox 62%

transiences Analysis

Dva won, but she didn't look great doing it. Aloy cut percentage all day and she's gotta be pretty mediocre in this environment where Drake gets whipped by Tails and Kratos gets doubled by Pikachu.

Fox, though, didn't look good either. That match with Jill was kinda scary. Fox clearly wins here, but can he show that he's a threat to Aerith? I don't even know what percentage to give those odds. Maybe 70%? All of these matches may end up with the same percentages.

transience's prediction: Fox with 64.89%

Leonharts Analysis

Theres always a chance D. Va gets some sort of rally here, but Im doing this writeup under the assumption that its not happening. D. Va was nearly as frontloaded as a Nintendo character in round 1, jumping out to a huge lead on Aloy and steadily dropping the rest of the match. Ill be curious to see what her early vote looks like against someone like Fox, but thats about the only interesting thing to keep an eye on here. This shouldnt be close at all if a rally doesnt materialize.

Leonharts Vote: Fox McCloud

Leonharts Prediction: Fox McCloud with 68.68%

Kleenexs Analysis

D.Vas cool and all, but this whole rally thing isnt really working out, and Fox is certainly stronger by a significant margin. Unless we have outside interference in this match (probability almost 0%), Fox should coast.

Kleenexs Prediction: Fox with 65%
---

Lopen's Analysis:

So, to continue from last round, and going back to rally theory, let's explain for our readers why D.Va was the only one who had any decent chance of getting a rally of the suspects. While a large fanbase helps, ultimately the key is in the path.

Step 1. Easy first round. Check.
Step 2. Second round is not a total stomp to the point where a modest rally can get her through it. IN PROGRESS.
Step 3. Third round vs FFVII always wins-- the boogeyman. At that point people are passionately interested in making GameFAQs cry. Aeris Gainsborough. What a villain. This is the profit step, with all the Gainsboroughs belonging to us. Cha ching. But hold, we're not there yet.

Succeeding in step 2 hinges upon Fox not being a total stomp. This is not a given, at this point. But we, the D.Va backing villains, have a few rays of hope here. The first is that while D.Va underwhelmed last round, I'd argue Fox did as well, meaning that even a weak D.Va may have a chance to keep this vaguely close. The second is that D.Va was very frontloaded, almost having peak L-Block like trends. While this is a single ray, if you will, it's a really good ray for two reasons. The first thing to consider, and this is possibly a reach, is that D.Va may have been being lightly rallied last round early and it went under our radar, with how frontloaded she was. If it was already happening last round, even in small amounts, the chances of it happening in higher numbers this round increase. Now, alternatively she's just a day vote god and just looks amazing with the early vote because that's how our contest's early vote is now. But for either reason, the net result is that peak D.Va will appear early, meaning that D.Va may be able to keep well above 40% even if she is thoroughly outmatched in the long run.

Now we as contest vets know that 40% is not actually close, but to the casual inspector that looks like a winnable match-- people will be much more inclined to attempt a rally, support a rally, if there's an illusion that the match is close. Once that momentum begins, the illusion becomes reality, and the match suddenly is close. Were D.Va to be down in the low 30s to start, or even worse, that chance goes drastically down. But at low 40s, or hell, high 40s? That's a lot more interesting to fight for. And because the match starts at a reasonable hour in US time, her passionate rallybase will be around before she's too far dead and buried like she would be had the match started 4 or 7 hours later.

We can't fully rule out the rally boogeyman. Not just yet. She may not have been furiously rallied last round, but she was winning. She didn't need it! When her back is against the wall... these voters... the ones you thought were non-rallying people... they'll eat GameFAQs. And I shall be there, ready to collect my money.

YOUR HOPE ENDS HERE. AND YOUR MEANINGLESS BRACKET WITH IT!

Lopen's Prediction:
D.Va with 50.45%

Crew Consensus: Fox flies past D.Va
---

is that a Seymour quote Lopen
---

My mortibody keeps my bracket alive even after it receives fatal damage
---

If Leon's percents are correct, what does the boss need to do to Garrus so that Zelda > Squall still happens.

Shit I mangled that the first time.
---

MasterMoltar posted...

YOUR HOPE ENDS HERE. AND YOUR MEANINGLESS BRACKET WITH IT!

Nah it already ended.
---

Well I'm sure plenty of us already have dead brackets. I more meant the hope of a "good" contest.

Because the storm is a comin.
---

Round 2 Captain Toad vs. Aerith Gainsborough

Moltars Analysis

Captain Toad
Round 1 - 52.57% vs. Shovel Knight

Aerith
Round 1 - 57.43% vs. Waluigi

This is a weird division bottom half.

Toad (Captain optional) should be weaker than Waluigi in 2018 because he's not a meme. Not much else to say here.

Moltars Bracket: Aerith

Moltars Prediction: Aerith 60%

transiences Analysis

What do you do when a prime FF7 character can't break 60% on Waluigi? In a year where other jokes go down hard and Wario up a higher percentage on Master Hand?

I don't know how to take that Waluigi match. I don't like Aeris as a contest character. In my eyes, she has the disappointment rep of a Dante or a Donkey Kong or whatever.

I think Shovel Knight would embarrass Aerith and Captain Toad might do the same, kinda like Big Boss/Crash. Aerith wins, but I think her match with Fox is a big question mark.

transience's prediction: Aerith with 52.89%

Leonharts Analysis

There was some controversy over Captain Toad just being listed as Toad against Shovel Knight in round 1. Did it really make that much of a difference? Who knows, but we can probably safely say it wont matter much here. While Aerith didnt exactly blow the doors off of Waluigi, she shouldnt have any problems against a character who is almost certainly weaker than him. Im not sure what number she needs to hit relative to Fox to look good going into next round, but I feel like as long as she doesnt undershoot him by a lot, she should be fine.

Leonharts Vote: Aerith Gainsborough

Leonharts Prediction: Aerith Gainsborough with 67.39%

Kleenexs Analysis

Captain Toad, being awesome motherfucker that he is, has agreed to fall on Sephiroths sword and allow Aeris to move on to Round 3. What a hero. We thank him for his service.

Kleenexs Prediction: Aeris with 60%

Crew Consensus: Aerith is the Captain now
---

Lopen's Unofficial Analysisx4

Squall vs Garrus

Squall antivotes will be in force today, as they were last round. Enough to make Squall look a bit weak against this generic space alien dude. Not enough to put the match in any doubt, however.

Squall with 62.15%

Zelda vs The Boss

After last round's rout of The Metal, and seeing Tails wipe the floor with Nathan Drake and Knuckles look respectable, I think I believe in The Boss to some extent. Again, not enough to actually take her to win, but enough to look respectable.

Zelda with 62.15%

Fox v D.Va

In a parallel universe, where a rally didn't happen, D.Va would sit pretty at around 41%. I think Overwatch as a brand isn't total fodder. But officially, the rally is happening.

Fox with 58.35%

Captain Toad vs Aeris

I'm not sure Waluigi is really getting all that many meme votes. My feeling is that Toad, with his Captain promotion present or not, is probably going to put in a decent fight here as he'll be stronger than Waluigi, and that Aeris like her brother from another mother Vincent just kinda sucks this year.

Aeris with 55.55%
---

HaRRicH posted...

I thought this was just me. GMail?

No, I use my own server, I use thunderbird for it.

And no worries, Moltar!
---

huh, I just noticed that Bowser really bled percentage against Charizard. 56/44 really isn't that bad of a result.

I still like Kirby over Bowser
---

Bowser ain't getting to Kirby!!
---

Wait, I sent mine in!
---

Tsunamis Analysis

Oh what Ive gotta come up with another of these this quickly? And they only posted two days worth of sign-ups at a time instead of four so I again got stuck with only open slot? Okay, whatve we got hereFFVII vs. extremely low-tier Nintendo. I should just go with old character > new character and be done with it, but the new character is just a specific Toad, which is older than any Final Fantasy character. That said, old Square seems to be doing just fine, and I think FFVII is considered old Square now even though it used to be considered new Square. Probably because were on the cusp of the 9th generation, if not there already with the release of the Switch, and so fifth-generation systems like the PS1 are considered classics now. Does that look right? I guess it looks right. That theory suggests that the dividing line between old and new should be IX vs. XZidane lost to Knuckles and Vincent struggled with Magus, but both of those can be explained away with older = stronger.

There was also a post in one of the stats topics near the end of the first round suggesting that female characters have mostly been overperforming. It was hard to give the poster too much credit since they included females that had been facing other females among those that they praised, but thats a minor detail. Im looking at my Oracle prediction and frankly, it looks kind of low, but Nintendo has been beasting all over this contest so perhaps thats why I was reluctant to go for the huge blowout. Anyway, Ive somehow managed to write nearly 300 words about a fairly uninteresting match so lets just end this.

Aerith Gainsborough with 60.77% of the vote
---

So many complaints. You don't need to sign up for matches you don't want to do Lopen has the guest slot's back all day.
---

never stop sucking, Aerith
---

transience posted...

never stop sucking, Aerith

That's what Cloud said.
---

rip squall
---

squall will make this look better but the first 10-15 of zelda/squall wont be pretty
---

I will accept thanks for preventing the D.Va rally now. You're all welcome.
---

I'll thank you once this day is over.

But yeah you deserve it.

My word how bad must Waluigi suck

That is all I choose to focus on right now.
---

Eh, now that the early voting has calmed down and the night vote still awaits, I think this result looks better. I think this is about what Toad would do on Aeris.
---

Captain Toad probably isn't really that weak. Peach vs Captain Toad is probably a somewhat close match indirectly and she got 43% on Alucard? Anything Nintendo branded is going to be somewhat strong that's GameFAQs now.
---

Also, I think Squall and Zelda will end up with similar percentages after the rise to heaven and the night vote.

But now I have to hope MGS sucks worse this year than Mass Effect does and I don't like those odds.
---

Lopen posted...

Peach vs Captain Toad is probably a somewhat close match indirectly

Severely doubt this
---

Peach has been pretty underwhelming in these contests. It's not like people actually like Peach anyway.
---

yeah the captain would murder peach
---