Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 5

(+) Yeah! (+)

Lucina

Anyone think Shulk could beat Claire?
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Lopen's unofficial analysis x4

Geralt vs Simon Belmont

I've thought Ryu Hayabusa was stronger than Geralt, and well, losing to Simon Belmont doesn't necessarily change that, particularly when Geralt is squeaking by Rosalina. Between Smash and getting his first decent picture ever, Simon Belmont could be legit enough to just beat a Ryu Hayabusa that hasn't fallen off the face of the earth. You could argue that Hayabusa is due for a drop because of the fall of "modern" characters but I think Hayabusa is old enough that he should avoid that, for the most part. Having the NES to fall back upon doesn't hurt

Simon Belmont with 53.18%

Pac-Man vs Bayonetta

I have this weird feeling about this match. Like Pac-Man is going to gain momentum among the voterbase because he conquered the evil Sans. I'm also Bayonetta's performance against Riku was a bit of a mirage caused by Riku continuing to drop due to series irrelevance, and a bad pic. Add in that I have this suspicion that Pac's performance wasn't entirely antivotes (I don't think Sans would get antivoted as hard as Draven) and that he might just be a bit stronger than usual this year, and I really like this upset.

Pac-Man with 52.84%

Auron vs Vincent

Forget Mewtwo, Auron has spotted the real fraud. This one will be ugly.

Auron with 60.46%

Sub-Zero vs Claire

Claire should normally be able to keep this vaguely close, but good lord that picture is death, and probably the only reason Joker kept it close last round.

Sub-Zero with 63.35%
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My heart was glad Simon won, but that match was the beginning of the end for me as I had Hayabusa making it to round 3.

Simon better make his victory worth it and beat Geralt and I think he can.
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How nice, Shulk > Claire confirmed.
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did Sub-Zero get announced for Smash while I wasn't looking?
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So it turns out that Leon lost to DK because Leon is just garbage.

Which means Tidus is garbage.

This means Persona is garbage.

Which means Yu is garbage.

Which means DK > Vivi confirmed!
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yeah Geralt's got this

Bayo went up a ton after the board vote last round so I feel kinda good about her, too, although probably not at 60%+!
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ah, there goes Bayonetta

60% is still a little nuts
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Geralt vs Bayonetta suddenly debatable again

Dammit Simon!
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Lmao ryu hayabusa

Brackets historically boost the tail end of the board vote I wouldn't call either of the close matches yet
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yeah I think they're both safe
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yeah Vincent has got Auron right where he wants em
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well looks like Vincent will break 40% if nothing else
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trends suggest Bayonetta and Geralt should have this. both went up a good bit from here, but their opponents were also better early vote characters.
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transience posted...

trends suggest Bayonetta and Geralt should have this. both went up a good bit from here, but their opponents were also better early vote characters.

The same was true for Ike and that ended up not happening
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Curious who'd be stronger between Bayonetta and 2B. Ness vs. Pac-Man who ya got
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Pac by a lot
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hm
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Simon and Pac are winning in the USA. hmm!

Bayo probably wins this but I totally deserve the accuracy point over these 60%+ picks
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here's a fun tease - who's stronger, Claire or Lucina
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Lucina

Probably
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Lucina is probably way stronger than Claire. I'm telling you that pic is killing her

Also agree with the feeling that Pac is much stronger than Ness. This year at least.
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7318

Squall does okay against Garrus.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7319

Zelda puts up another strong performance.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7320

Fox also looking pretty strong winning here.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7321

Expected result for Aerith.

Crew Predictions: 74/84

Next Round Thoughts: Nintendo is going into R3 with the advantage over the Square opponents.

Crew Prediction Challenge:

transience: 75
Moltar: 74
Leonhart: 70
Kleenex: 68
Guest: 66

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Squall, Kleenex gets the point for Zelda, Leonhart gets the point for Fox, and Moltar and Kleenex get the point for Aerith.

Guest: 20 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (2), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96, RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235, DoctorJimmy133)
transience: 19
Kleenex: 19
Moltar: 16
Leonhart: 13
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wow so accurate
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half points pretty please
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maybe next contest
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transience posted...

half points pretty please

Been saying this since... back when I was on the crew.

Damn whole number predictions gaming the system.
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Hbthebattle posted...

The same was true for Ike and that ended up not happening

Eh, not really. Ike's a very frontloaded character, too.

transience posted...

here's a fun tease - who's stronger, Claire or Lucina

as much as I'd love to believe Sub-Zero has a shot at Auron, we've seen them face twice before and it wasn't particularly close either time
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As good as Subbie looks, he's still a western character

Don't trust him
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So how long has Sub-Zero been the strongest Western character?
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Mac Arrowny posted...

So how long has Sub-Zero been the strongest Western character?

He's probably been the strongest one more years than not, with the exception of stuff like Game Fuel and maaaaaaybe Shepard in 2013.
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Round 2 Luigi vs. Frog

Moltars Analysis

Luigi
Round 1 - 77.47% vs. Miles Edgeworth

Frog
Round 1 - 76.38% vs. Monokuma

Pretty easy start to Round 2 of this division. Luigi has been a few steps ahead of Frog for years now, and while both crushed fodder in R1, Edgey is better fodder to crush than Monokuma.

Magus was somewhat vindicated by Vincent not dropping the ball against Auron, so Im going to guess that Frog will look okay here by keeping Luigi in the low-60s.

Moltars Bracket: Luigi

Moltars Prediction: Luigi 61%

transiences Analysis

It looks like Magus would get about 41% on Auron, which is notable because Magus once got 41% on Alucard. (Then again, Alucard just held Yuna to a similar percentage. Maybe Auron isn't totally safe.)

I mention Magus, of course, because Frog's up against Luigi here. This is a great chance to test the Chrono Trigger boost from 2015 or whatever year that was when CT obliterated Melee before rallying happened. That's still the most disappointing contest result in my memory - CT has historically gotten screwed in many different ways, and it was finally going way the hell over and crap. I guess 2004 Crono/Mario is also a triumph. Eh, not good enough for me.

Both Luigi and Frog had great r1 performances against bums. In a good CT year, Frog might be able to hold Luigi under 60%. Can he do it here? I'm feeling Luigi as a top performer in the baby bracket this year but I think Frog can at least kinda sorta hang with him. If Luigi can double Frog, let's just call this division and move on.

transience's prediction: Luigi with 61.88%

Leonharts Analysis

As Im watching Vincent not get totally destroyed by Auron right now, it does seem that maybe Magus is a little better this year than in recent contests. Well find out for sure with Frog. Bowser got 63% on him back in 2010, so if Frog can improve on that number by a noticeable amount, that could portend good things for Cronos chances down the line. On the other hand, if Luigi can outdo Bowsers number by a decent margin, that would speak well for his chances of winning the division. Im all in on Luigi this year, so Ill bet on the latter.

Leonharts Vote: Luigi

Leonharts Prediction: Luigi with 66.05%
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Kleenexs Analysis

Time to see how legit Chrono Trigger is this year. Frog and Luigi both looked pretty good last round pulling in around the same numbers on their respective opponents. Obviously Edgeworth is stronger than Monokuma, probably by a reasonable margin, so Frog doesnt actually have a real shot of winning this match. However, he should be able to hold up pretty well assuming the fabled CT boost is real. Unless of course, the dreaded Green SFF takes effect, in which case RIP Frog.

Kleenexs Prediction: Luigi with 58%

Guests Analysis - MetalmindStats

This easy Round 2 match is really all about gauging where Luigi currently stands, and thus seeing whether he can escape his division, and hopefully even knock off a washed up Noble Niner!

There are a few key matches to keep in mind here from 2010, the last one-on-one character battle. In particular, that was the last time Frog was up against a (near-elite) Mario character, when Bowser scored 63.22% on him. Since then, Magus has seemingly validated part of Chrono Triggers surprise 2015 surge by almost beating Vincent, followed by the latters (currently) decent number against Auron. Based on that, Chrono Trigger characters have improved from 2010, but so have iconic, well-liked Nintendo characters, which puts a repeat performance by Luigi in the expected range. As such, anything from about 62.5% to 64% wouldnt say much either way about Luigis chances of winning his division.

If Luigi really wants to establish himself as the clear favorite in his contentious division and potentially even beyond, he needs to be shooting to exceed fellow near-elite (as of 2010 at least) Squalls 64.52% against fellow Old Square midcarder Terra. Terra herself seems to have improved a bit since then, but her 2010 strength should be very close to Frogs current level.

On the other hand, anything close to 60-40 would almost certainly be a death knell for the green-capped one. To compare to another 2010 match, Luigis most likely competition in Mega Man X scored 61.16% against Red, who was squarely a midcarder back then after barely beating Revolver Ocelot. If Tifa or Mewtwo instead escape from their half of the division, he should still be aiming just as high to win unless Mewtwos somehow on its 2013 steroids, in which case Luigis doomed regardless.

Because Luigis probably my favorite video game character (and an established near-elite, of course), I predicted big things for him in my bracket, taking him out of his division and even over Sephiroth in the Losers Bracket. To validate my hopes, Luigi is going to have to soar in this match, and my prediction thus reflects my hope that hell soar sky high indeed.

My Prediction: Luigi wins with 65.59%

Crew Consensus: Its still Weegi Time.
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I sure do hope that Leon gets that accuracy point!

Me too, man. Down with Frog.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Mac Arrowny posted...

So how long has Sub-Zero been the strongest Western character?

He's probably been the strongest one more years than not, with the exception of stuff like Game Fuel and maaaaaaybe Shepard in 2013.

GLaDOS was definitely the strongest Western character in 2013.

Shepard staying in double digits in Link/Draven was more impressive than anything GlaDOS did in 2013 imhotbqh

also if we're looking for comparison points between Auron and Subby for next round:

Shulk vs. Lucina who ya got?
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As impressive as that was, it's also kind of not very comparable. And there's no doubt in my mind that GLaDOS would have done the exact same thing regardless.

Also, I would take Shulk to win straight up, but I figure him and Lucina are about even indirectly.

GlaDOS barely even beat Kefka in 2013 I'm not sure where the hype is coming from exactly? She beat fodder, an SFF split match between two midcarders, and squeaked by Kefka as the two were blown up by Solid Snake.
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Well, at the very least, we could say Sub-Zero is the most consistently strong western character, but Mortal Kombat occupies a space among western franchises on this site that just about nothing else does, really.
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LeonhartFour posted...

Well, at the very least, we could say Sub-Zero is the most consistently strong western character, but Mortal Kombat occupies a space among western franchises on this site that just about nothing else does, really.

True.

And Lopen, the hype comes from GLaDOS easily avoiding being doubled by Snake in that same match where she barely beat Kefka.

You have an interesting definition of "easily"

I'll take Shepard > Aeris and Tharja as more impressive than that, to say nothing of the Link match
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Random thought: people having jokingly thrown around Alucard being an Assist Trophy in Smash Ultimate as boosting his strength, but I don't think we've really considered what Simon's inclusion in Smash meant for Alucard. The trailer was more about celebrating Castlevania as a whole than about specifically Simon getting in (especially since Richter was there too). Even if Alucard wasn't shown at all, I could easily see him benefiting from the sheer amount of love that Direct gave Castlevania - it put the series in the spotlight for the first time in years, and Alucard is basically the face of Castlevania on GameFAQs.
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Eh, Snake only getting 64.41% on GLaDOS equates her easily enough avoiding the doubling imo.

I'll agree to disagree on which of the two was stronger in 2013, though.

This month's new Netflix Castlevania season and PS4 SOTN release probably helped, too. :) It's a Castlevania overload.
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if anything the PS4 SOTN release should hurt because they changed the dialogue
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LordOfDabu posted...

This month's new Netflix Castlevania season and PS4 SOTN release probably helped, too. :) It's a Castlevania overload.

This is the truth. Castlevania Netflix, SOTN PS4, and Simon/Richter in Smash is a resurgence of attention that Castlevania hasnt had inoof10-15 years, probably.