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Lopen 11/25/18 1:38:10 PM #201: |
X-stats have always been a hack for relatively close matches. We've honestly been burned by them enough to already know that's the truth.
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LeonhartFour 11/25/18 1:39:12 PM #202: |
they predicted Tidus/Shadow almost perfectly...!
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 11/25/18 1:44:50 PM #203: |
Main benefit of x-stats is for people like Ulti who don't realize that getting over 45% on Sonic makes you strong.
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NowItsAngeTime 11/25/18 4:17:55 PM #204: |
I still like to think of X-Stats as a general approximation of how strong characters are (within 3-5% or so depending on SFF overlap and matchup) and definitely shouldn't always base things purely on math or else you get burned and thats assuming characters are relatively consistent which obviously isnt the case for lots of character this year
--- ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Link versus Cloud 11/25/18 5:03:33 PM #205: |
LusterSoldier posted...
Link versus Cloud posted...Even though the overall average is that low, the average for round 4 was close to 30,000 per match wasn't it? Isn't that what we should be comparing the final 16 to since it will be bigger matches with 2 per day format like those? I was thinking something closer to the 900,000 range. Oh haha I didn't realize it wasn't including the bonus that makes more sense, thanks. --- LeBron "Stannis" James - The one true king of the NBA ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Not_Wylvane 11/25/18 8:49:00 PM #206: |
X-stats are a nice baseline but those numbers lack a lot of context.
The rare times I do well in these contests I generally look at past matches and see how debated characters did before and how their competition fared in other matches to get a rough guideline, basically reviewing the polls themselves rather than the actual x-stats. Other times like this contest I either go by gut or do a quick runthrough and forget to go through again and bomb. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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HaRRicH 11/25/18 11:22:41 PM #207: |
X-stats are better at translating the past than predicting the future. There's a lot of good to be had by them, but there's not a person here who hasn't been burnt by them before and everyone realizes they're not some perfect way to lazily make our brackets.
Neither is looking at the BOP, neither is looking at the Guru favorites, neither is looking at geographical trends, and neither is looking at every past poll. We've got a bunch of good-ass tools. X-stats are among them...but then, a hammer alone shouldn't build your house, and it definitely won't make your house uniquely better than the rest of your neighborhood. --- Nominate METAL MAN for 20XX! https://imgur.com/Dr4NAeq ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LusterSoldier 11/26/18 12:01:22 AM #208: |
LusterSoldier posted...
Polls for the next several days: Looks like it's not related to the Second Chance Contest, so we'll never know what percentage of the site filled out a bracket for that contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Nanis23 11/26/18 1:45:56 AM #209: |
LusterSoldier posted...
LusterSoldier posted...Polls for the next several days: I prefer it like this Seeing 60%+ people voting for "I don't care about the contest" is always discouraging --- 3DS FC : 3411-1762-0066 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LusterSoldier 11/26/18 1:54:11 AM #210: |
Nanis23 posted...
Seeing 60%+ people voting for "I don't care about the contest" is always discouraging Every single contest related bracket poll has been like this, even going back to 2002. So it wouldn't be unexpected to see 60%+ people not interested in filling out a Second Chance Bracket. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/26/18 11:01:59 AM #211: |
so uh
how about that contest --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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hombad46 11/26/18 11:05:19 AM #212: |
Who's ready for Pikachu > Mega Man
--- "That's Engarde hairflip metal detector tier btw" -XIII_rocks ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 11/26/18 11:05:35 AM #213: |
I would like that.
--- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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MetalmindStats 11/26/18 11:07:28 AM #214: |
My body is ready for Mega Man to 60-40 Pikachu.
... Copied to Clipboard!
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scaryice 11/26/18 11:45:20 AM #215: |
https://imgur.com/K80RRlR
Here's a table that shows the year of the first meetings between each pair of noble niners, and which have yet to occur (hopefully I got everything right - this is 1v1 only, no bonus matches). We still need 8/38 pairings: Chrono vs Cloud Chrono vs Samus Chrono vs Sephiroth Cloud vs Mega Man Link vs Snake Mario vs Sonic Mega Man vs Samus Sephiroth vs Sonic --- Congrats to BKSheikah, the new Guru champ! Not that I'm bitter or anything... ... Copied to Clipboard!
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hombad46 11/26/18 11:46:31 AM #216: |
I was going to question why you said Link never met Link until I saw this "hopefully I got everything right - this is 1v1 only, no bonus matches"
--- "That's Engarde hairflip metal detector tier btw" -XIII_rocks ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 11/26/18 11:49:40 AM #217: |
His name is Crono dude
--- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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scaryice 11/26/18 11:50:32 AM #218: |
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Safer_777 11/26/18 11:55:25 AM #219: |
Chrono Trigger is the game.
Crono is the name. --- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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scaryice 11/26/18 12:02:30 PM #220: |
Safer_777 posted...
Chrono Trigger is the game. They only had 5 letters for the localized version. There is no logical reason for his name to be spelled differently. Also: --- Congrats to BKSheikah, the new Guru champ! Not that I'm bitter or anything... ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 11/26/18 12:04:14 PM #221: |
Why not put Rockman too?
--- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Mac Arrowny 11/26/18 12:06:58 PM #222: |
Very cool chart.
--- All the stars in the sky are waiting for you. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The Mana Sword 11/26/18 12:30:05 PM #223: |
... Copied to Clipboard!
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NowItsAngeTime 11/26/18 1:31:24 PM #224: |
scaryice posted...
Safer_777 posted...Chrono Trigger is the game. If you read the Katakana literally it's "Ku ro no" so technically it can go either way Google translate just found the word that most likely word that makes sense in grammatical English but localization can change anything. --- ISFJ Big on Visual Novels, Anime, Video games. Twitter: superange128 Planned 2018 Fighting Game Mains: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgH4MCHVMAAKV9l.png ... Copied to Clipboard!
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The_Ctes 11/26/18 1:39:23 PM #225: |
We'll probably get either Mega Mn or Crono against Cloud.
I suppose Link vs. Snake could happen, but I really don't find it much more likely than Mario vs. Sonic. --- Ctesjbuvf posting on his phone. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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DoctorJimmy133 11/26/18 2:23:32 PM #226: |
Man, I really want to take Seph > Samus but I don't have the courageousness.
--- If all else fails use fire. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 11/26/18 2:40:26 PM #227: |
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Man, I really want to take Seph > Samus but I don't have the courageousness. I took all the upsets that I want. I figure if they happen I wanna be the one who gets the points for them, not someone else. Plus I went very cookie in the first bracket and got burned by it, I might as well try to call the amazing results myself this time. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SlugSh0t 11/26/18 2:50:19 PM #228: |
what time does the next match start?
--- >_______________> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 11/26/18 2:50:59 PM #229: |
SlugSh0t posted...
what time does the next match start? 4 hours and 10 min from now. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SlugSh0t 11/26/18 2:54:19 PM #230: |
thanks
--- >_______________> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Kotetsu534 11/26/18 4:04:31 PM #231: |
Well I do my half-yearly check-in at GameFAQs and what do you know! A contest! And it's not being overran by rabid League of Legends hordes or subjugated by a Reign of Poke-terror. In fact, looking through the results, what stands out to me is how normal the results are. Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda - just think what Link's gonna do when he's let loose!
--- We are living our lives Abound with so much information ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/26/18 4:05:12 PM #232: |
Kotetsu534 posted...
Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda augh my heart --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Ringworm 11/26/18 4:16:14 PM #233: |
Has anyone found the link to the match pics yet, or have they not been uploaded? I know Luster is usually pretty good at finding these things early.
--- ~ Ringworm ~ Congrats to BKSheikah - Guru champion - Best Year in Gaming ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/26/18 5:20:01 PM #234: |
Match CXXI: (1) Link vs. (4) Ganondorf
Previous/Current Contest Performance Link - 2013 Round 1: 72.67% against Isaac (15.36%) and Tingle (11.97%) Round 2: 60.05% against Raiden (22.09%) and Yoshi (17.86%) Round 3: 44.02% against Draven (44.65%) and Commander Shepard (11.34%) Ganondorf Defeated Neku Sakuraba, 78.60% - 21.40% Defeated Chun-Li, 58.91% - 41.09% Defeated Dante, 56.40% - 43.60% Defeated Vivi, 51.96% - 48.04% Analysis After a break we are back and now the big hitters are here. Ganondorfs reward for winning his division is to face Link, a bit cruel. We all saw what happened in 2004 where Link SFF Ganondorf so badly that he ended up with a lower direct percentage than CATS. The only debate in this match is whether or not Link can repeat that feat. Despite Breath of the Wild I feel Link will not reach those numbers. While Link has built some distance between himself and the number two in this site, the rest of the field has gotten closer to him. Before it was only Cloud and Sephiroth that could break 40% on him, now I can see around half a dozen characters that could break 40% before SFF and a lot more that could avoid getting doubled. Link is still the dominant force, but he isnt quite that dominant. This has also weakened his ability to SFF Nintendo characters. In 2013, Tingle held up rather well though you could argue that he benefitted from joke votes. Yoshi went from 18.26% in 2004 to 22.93% in 2013. I still expect quite a beating, just not as badly. At least for Ganondorf hell have the losers bracket to save his (adjusted) x-stat value. charmander6000s Bracket: Link > Ganondorf charmander6000s Prediction: Link wins, 85.74% - 14.26% Match CXXII: (8) Mega Man vs. (7) Pikachu Previous/Current Contest Performance Mega Man - 2013 Round 1: 55.28% against Magikarp (31.98%) and Geno (12.74%) Round 2: 56.67% against Jill Valentine (23.08%) and Kratos (20.25%) Round 3: 40.21% against Charizard (40.17%) and Zero (19.62%) Round 4: 33.32% against Samus Aran (38.48%) and Pokemon Trainer Red (28.20%) Pikachu Defeated Scorpion, 66.41% - 33.59% Defeated Kratos, 63.41% - 36.59% Defeated Yoshi, 54.80% - 45.20% Defeated Zero, 56.56% - 43.44% Analysis Ive been getting that close, but not enough vibe in this match. Pikachu had a great contest so far and has placed himself into the conversation of being the strongest non-Noble Nine character. While other Pokemon characters were unsurprisingly brought back down to Earth, Pikachu maintained his performances from 2010 and 2013. Sadly, when I look at his performances against Yoshi and Zero, I can see Mega Man doing at least just as good as Pikachu did. One idea that has been floating around since 2005 was that Pikachu and the other division winners have had time to build momentum while the Elite Eight characters are starting off cold. I dont think thats going to be true outside of rare cases like Charizard in 2010 or even Geralt here where they were already getting a bandwagon effect. Plus, the six-day break has likely killed any minor momentum the characters may have built. If there is some kind of an effect, I could see it effecting the winner of this match. charmander6000s Bracket: Mega Man > Yoshi charmander6000s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 53.63% - 46.37% --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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redrocket 11/26/18 5:39:51 PM #235: |
LeonhartFour posted...
Kotetsu534 posted...Well, apart from Squall getting blasted by Zelda There we go. --- It's like paying for bubble wrap. -transience on Final Fantasy: All the Bravest ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SwiftyDC 11/26/18 5:59:47 PM #236: |
So, who else took Zelda over Sonic?
--- Dilated Chemist ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Lopen 11/26/18 6:08:21 PM #237: |
I think Zelda > Snake is possible. I see Sonic 60-40ing her and it's not because Sonic is that much stronger than Snake.
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Team Rocket Elite 11/26/18 6:09:42 PM #238: |
Zelda > Sonic is the favourite in the BOP. I ended up going for it as well.
--- This was not the best year for my bracket. Congrats to BK_Sheikah00 for winning the BYIG Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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swirIdude 11/26/18 6:14:13 PM #239: |
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Zelda > Sonic is the favourite in the BOP. I ended up going for it as well. People are definitely overcompensating for Zelda's boost and/or Squall's fall. Sonic will win that. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima BKSheikah won Guru, but you know that. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/26/18 6:20:49 PM #240: |
Yeah, Zelda was brought back down to Earth after Aerith, but I'd still give her a good chance at the upset.
It also helps Sonic that Knuckles/Shadow/Tails performed well in the contest. We'll get a better look after Sonic/Auron. --- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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trogita 11/26/18 6:24:28 PM #241: |
Safer_777 posted...
Chrono Trigger is the game. Sonic's the name. Speed's my game. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SlugSh0t 11/26/18 6:38:56 PM #242: |
i hope megaman loses
--- >_______________> ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Advokaiser 11/26/18 6:48:57 PM #243: |
scaryice posted...
Wait... Are you telling me Mario vs. Sonic has never happened before? Not that it would be close, but still! Imagine that match back in 2008! --- Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 11/26/18 6:50:07 PM #244: |
Correct. It has never happened. There's never even really been a good chance for it to happen because they're usually not in the same section of the bracket.
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Advokaiser 11/26/18 6:51:33 PM #245: |
BTW, do we have the next matches' pics available?
--- Here lies the sig of BK_Sheikah00, who swore fealty to the Gurus of Board 8. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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creativename 11/26/18 6:52:02 PM #246: |
... Copied to Clipboard!
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LusterSoldier 11/26/18 6:52:58 PM #247: |
Advokaiser posted...
BTW, do we have the next matches' pics available? I don't know. I'm sure they've been uploaded by now, but I can't find them through URL guessing. It seems like we will have to wait for the next matches to start so we can figure out the exact URL structure for the later match pictures. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LusterSoldier 11/26/18 6:53:43 PM #248: |
creativename posted...
@LusterSoldier 7358 We are also restarting the contest with 2 matches per day. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BK_Sheikah00, Guru Champ! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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charmander6000 11/26/18 6:53:45 PM #249: |
Should be 7358 and 7359
--- CBX - Today's Winners: Link and Mega Man Score: 196/256 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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creativename 11/26/18 6:57:38 PM #250: |
LusterSoldier posted...
creativename posted...@LusterSoldier Thanks. Is my site loading slowly for anyone else? Or is it just me? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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