Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

Averia posted...

Exactly how bad is Sonic looking right now ?
Who is the weakest character he would lose to according to lolstats ?

its being overexaggerated. mm and crono would get slapped by zelda hard as well. so it depends on how you see say cloud vs zelda. i think she wins so sonic with that already> crono
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augh Snake

Samus better beat Mario now
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https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3834-varia-division-round-3-samus-aran-vs-sub-zero

That was a night match; figure Samus improves, I dunno, maybe a percent in full 24 hours.

Snake probably goes up from here thansk to Europe but what is Samus currently projected to get on Sub-Zero?
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Zelda 50.00%
Solid Snake 49.68%
Mario 49.09%
Samus Aran 47.70%
*Sonic the Hedgehog 43.55%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.16%
Sephiroth 40.01%
*Auron 39.79%
Tifa Lockhart 39.17%
Mega Man X 39.04%
Auron 38.52%
Luigi 38.10%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.81%
*Geralt 37.29%
Squall Leonhart 36.68%
*Bayonetta 36.63%
Geralt 36.10%
Fox McCloud 35.77%
*Simon Belmont 35.66%
Bayonetta 35.46%
*Vincent Valentine 35.17%
*Pac-Man 35.12%
*Ryu Hayabusa 35.09%
Simon Belmont 34.52%
*Sub-Zero 34.55%
Vincent Valentine 34.05%
Pac-Man 34.00%
Ryu Hayabusa 33.97%
*Magus 33.85%
Sub-Zero 33.35%
Jill Valentine 32.83%
Mewtwo 32.83%
*Rosalina 32.79%
Magus 32.77%
Waluigi 32.19%
Ryu 31.80%
Rosalina 31.75%
Amaterasu 30.91%
Captain Toad 30.26%
The Boss 29.30%
Frog 29.25%
Shovel Knight 28.70%
Captain Falcon 28.06%
Lara Croft 27.87%
*Lucina 27.50%
Lucina 26.62%
Garrus Vakarian 26.39%
*Riku 26.08%
Ramza Beoulve 26.06%
*Shulk 25.79%
Metal Sonic 25.48%
Riku 25.25%
Shulk 24.97%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.67%
Revolver Ocelot 24.66%
GlaDOS 24.63%
King Dedede 24.42%
Albert Wesker 23.78%
*Claire Redfield 23.25%
Miles Tails Prower 23.13%
Claire Redfield 22.59%
Richter Belmont 22.23%
KOS-MOS 22.21%
*Joker/Ren Amamiya 21.58%
Commander Shepard 21.28%
Geno 21.00%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 20.89%
King K. Rool 20.75%
Master Chief 20.60%
D. Va 20.37%
Ellie 20.23%
*Sans 20.11%
Lloyd Irving 20.07%
Nathan Drake 20.02%
Sans 19.47%
Aloy 19.18%
Aqua 18.93%
Metal Man 17.90%
Hat Kid 17.69%
Miles Edgeworth 17.17%
Isabelle 15.11%
Monokuma 13.82%
Quiet 13.59%
Goro Majima 12.76%
Draven 7.33%

Based on Mario/Samus. Set based on Tifa/Seph next.
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whoa samus didn't slow down. heck yeah.

mario/samus rsff believe
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Plot twist: Sephiroth rSFFd Tifa
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Samus Aran 50.00%
Zelda 48.94%
Solid Snake 48.63%
Mario 48.05%
Sonic the Hedgehog 42.63%
Tifa Lockhart 41.07%
Mega Man X 40.92%
Luigi 39.95%
Sephiroth 39.16%
Auron 38.95%
Aerith Gainsborough 37.01%
Geralt 36.50%
Squall Leonhart 35.90%
Bayonetta 35.85%
Fox McCloud 35.01%
Simon Belmont 34.90%
Mewtwo 34.42%
Vincent Valentine 34.42%
Pac-Man 34.38%
Ryu Hayabusa 34.35%
Sub-Zero 33.82%
Magus 33.13%
Jill Valentine 32.13%
Rosalina 32.09%
Waluigi 31.51%
Ryu 31.13%
Frog 30.66%
Amaterasu 30.25%
Captain Toad 29.62%
The Boss 28.68%
Shovel Knight 28.09%
Captain Falcon 27.47%
Lara Croft 27.28%
Lucina 26.92%
Revolver Ocelot 25.86%
Garrus Vakarian 25.83%
GlaDOS 25.82%
King Dedede 25.60%
Riku 25.53%
Ramza Beoulve 25.51%
Shulk 25.24%
Metal Sonic 24.94%
Miles Tails Prower 24.25%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze 24.15%
Albert Wesker 23.28%
Claire Redfield 22.76%
Geno 22.02%
Richter Belmont 21.76%
KOS-MOS 21.74%
Master Chief 21.59%
Joker/Ren Amamiya 21.12%
Nathan Drake 20.99%
Commander Shepard 20.82%
King K. Rool 20.31%
D. Va 19.94%
Ellie 19.81%
Sans 19.68%
Lloyd Irving 19.64%
Aloy 18.77%
Aqua 18.53%
Miles Edgeworth 18.01%
Metal Man 17.52%
Hat Kid 17.31%
Isabelle 15.84%
Monokuma 14.49%
Goro Majima 13.38%
Quiet 13.30%
Draven 7.18%

two numbers on there just make you go "hmm"
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Cronos looking pretty dead here to me
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yes he is. he might win the overnight but it might not matter much.

I'm like Slowflake with trying to predict where the vote's going to go after the first few minutes lately
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i am a big fan of metal sonic > tails and simon > vincent personally
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wait simon > vincent is completely independent of anything else

that's even better
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Crono needs to get moving, like now. Unless he's still good for a 300 vote rally in the last hour like he was before.
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I have prepared a suitably epic/surreal guest review for Link/Zelda.
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transience posted...

yes he is. he might win the overnight but it might not matter much.

I'm like Slowflake with trying to predict where the vote's going to go after the first few minutes lately

I have got to stop doing this
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So here's a question - at what point do we think that Samus overperforming here? Because I kind of doubt that Tifa almost beats Snake.
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I dunno, its hard to say - strength has clearly not been transitive from match to match in this legend bracket, Im Im kinda at the point where I say just throw it all out.

Also hopefully Crono can bury Mega Man overnight so I dont have to do two writeups for the first match tomorrow.
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Not transitive except when rematches happen, apparently!
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KamikazePotato posted...

So here's a question - at what point do we think that Samus overperforming here? Because I kind of doubt that Tifa almost beats Snake.

My guess is that ZSS is much stronger than Samus. If we can get a ZSS vs Mario rematch, we should hopefully be able to measure how much stronger ZSS is.
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Samus has a very good reason to improve her performance against Mario in the rematch. The first match had sprite pictures. While the sprite for Samus is certainly recognizable for sure, Mario is perhaps the king of sprites by having the most iconic sprites in video games. Even without ZSS, I think Samus should look better in the rematch.
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looks like crono couldnt even be bothered to take the lead huh

oh well
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LusterSoldier posted...

Samus has a very good reason to improve her performance against Mario in the rematch. The first match had sprite pictures. While the sprite for Samus is certainly recognizable for sure, Mario is perhaps the king of sprites by having the most iconic sprites in video games. Even without ZSS, I think Samus should look better in the rematch.

We'll have to see. I suspect people treat ZSS and Samus as separate characters in the same way that they treat Zelda and Sheik as separate characters and if ZSS = Samus, it means that Snake is almost on par with Tifa and Sonic has fallen way below Luigi, both of which seems odd.

Either way, this ZSS performance seems like a Link lite beating and it's not entirely clear whether Snake is weaker than Cloud. If ZSS goes on a bandwagon run tearing through losers and SFFs Zelda hard, she can put the fear of god into Link.
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A little above Tifa is better than Snake looked last time he faced Samus 1v1!
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argh there goes my pick

every close one has gone against me this year, it feels like
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Crono just can't take the lead

those barriers man
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transience posted...

every close one has gone against me this year, it feels like

Welcome to my world (as to be expected considering you're the crew member I've been agreeing with most this year)
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Mega Man did poorly against Pikachu in this timeframe. He rebounded in the last two hours so I wouldn't call this match over just yet.
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Lopen's unofficial analysisx2

Cloud vs Winner
Winner may as well be called loser because neither of these guys have a chance as neither made a statement against the other. I suppose Mega Man has a slightly better chance on the off chance that Crono was SFFed by Cloud, but I'm not convinced that actually is a thing that happens based on previous matches involving CT/FF guys.

Cloud with 56.12%

Samus vs Mario
With Smash hype at an all time high, and Samus now 0-2 against Mario (I'm pretty sure this is at least partially why Crono/Mario 04 was not close at all), it's time for the Samus miracle run to begin, and in convincing fashion. I think Samus is going to go big on the swing as she's basically got every intangible in her corner. Mario's got negative momentum from losing to Zelda, Mario is way less the favorite in Smash, and people remember past results and want Samus to win at this point.

As the board's foremost expert on Mario vs Samus matches, having called both percentages within 1.5%, when both were WACKY RESULTS, you can trust me on this one. You will not be disappointed!

Samus Aran with 55.89%
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Losers Bracket: Round 4 Cloud Strife vs Mega Man/Crono

Monikas Analysis

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link

Mega Man
Legends Round 1 - 49.89% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 1 - 60.03% vs. Ganondorf
Losers Round 2 - 50.67% vs. Pikachu
Losers Round 3 - 50.00% vs. Crono

Crono
Legends Round 1 - 54.88% vs. Bowser
Legends Round 2 - 43.27% vs. Cloud Strife
Losers Round 2 - 54.75% vs. Bowser
Losers Round 3 - 50.00% vs. Mega Man

MM/Crono might be too close to call right now, but neither of them are on the level of Cloud. Cloud had no problem with Crono before, and if Mega Man is equal to him, then we should expect around the same number.

If Cloud did SFF Crono a little, then Mega Man is going to do a little bit better, but I also dont think there was any significant SFF in that match. That means Cloud should have an easy time with whoever gets here.

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Sometimes you have to move forward even if you dont know what the outcome is. Dont be afraid to take that step!

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Cloud 56%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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Sayoriences Analysis

I'm writing this at 10am EST where it looks like Mega Man might win? It really doesn't matter all that much though in terms of this match. We've already seen the Crono match and it'd be really surprising if Mega could close the gap all that much.

I do feel better about Mega Man facing Cloud than Crono, though. There's the real possibility that Cloud had some overlap with Crono, and it would really only go in Cloud's favor. The only major factor here is Smash coming out, and while both Cloud and Mega are in it, the people that it's bringing to the site are going to be largely NIntendo fans and that benefits Mega more than others. I'll throw two predictions out here just in case Crono makes a comeback.

Sayorience's predictions:

Cloud over Mega Man with 52.52%
Cloud over Crono with 57.56%

Leonharts Analysis

As Im writing this, Mega Man and Crono are in a deadlock, so its hard to say which one of them is actually going to win this! Regardless, I dont think itll end up mattering too much in terms of the outcome of this match. Weve already seen Cloud easily dispatch Crono once during this phase of the contest, and unless there was some minor SFF there, the result should be the same (as weve seen in Crono/Bowser and Samus/Tifa) regardless of which one is here.

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife

Leonharts Prediction: Cloud Strife with 56.50%

Kleenexs Analysis

Im writing this assuming Mega Man holds on to his slim lead, and given the trends weve seen, he should. So how does Mega Man stack up against Cloud? Probably about the same as Crono. There was likely a little SFF happening in the Cloud/Crono match, so I can potentially see Mega Man holding up a little bit better, but its tough to see him bucking the trend and flipping what should be a 56/44 match. Even with Cloud looking completely pathetic against Link last round, he should be safe here. Next round is where he needs to worry.

(Also if by some miracle Crono is here, please download a browser extension to replace all instances of Mega Man with Crono)

Kleenexs prediction: Cloud with 56%

Guest's Analysis - Hbthebattle

Its pretty clear these guys are about equal, but we know how that ends already. If Mega Man is here, I think hed get a little less SFF and do a little better, but neither can win.

Cloud over Crono with 55.45%

Cloud over MM with 53.67%

Crew Consensus: Cloud cuts down whoever gets here.
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I think the only other time that crew didn't know the winner of the match on t heir analysis was on the finals of the game of the decade and they went with that right?
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dont remember if that's the only other time but that was one case
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Losers Bracket: Round 4 Mario vs. Samus Aran

Monikas Analysis

Mario
Legends Round 1 - 59.25% vs. Sephiroth
Legends Round 2 - 51.42% vs. Samus
Legends Round 3 - 49.09% vs. Zelda

Samus
Legends Round 1 - 58.93% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Legends Round 2 - 48.58% vs. Mario
Losers Round 2 - 58.58% vs. Tifa Lockheart
Losers Round 3 - 56.60% vs. Solid Snake

Samus did a lot better than her first showing against Mario. Since then, weve seen Mario lose to Zelda, and Samus destroy Snake who went even with Zelda. rsff finally confirmed we did it

In terms of the rematches, we havent seen a result flip by more than 1%. I think Samus does a little better this time, but once again the hierarchy (which is now L(ink)oZ(elda) > Mario > rest) keeps her from shattering the glass ceiling.

next contest tho samus > mario indirectly and directly we gonna get there

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: Hey, what's your favorite color? Mine is emerald green. It's the color of my eyes! ...That's not conceited or anything, is it?

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Mario 51%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

I need a real, honest to god reason to pick Samus over Mario. "Smash Bros" could maybe be it, but probably not? That's practically got Mario's name in the title. "Revenge votes" doesn't seem like a thing after Bowser, Pikachu, etc. Mega was a lot closer to Pikachu than Samus was.

I'm not saying it can't happen, but I don't go against the king without a reason. Zelda at least had her series in her corner. Samus is putting up a Mario-beating performance here, and I'd *love* to see Samus/Zelda, but I can't go all in. Samus needs to prove that she can beat the king who's whipped her for over a decade now.

transience's prediction: Mario with 50.84%

Leonharts Analysis

Samus keeps putting up impressive performances, and it keeps not mattering because she ends up getting thwarted by the hierarchy when she faces Mario. Could she actually run this back and beat Mario? At this point, Samus is probably our only hope for a semi-interesting final. Not to say she can beat Link, but well have already seen Zelda lose to Link once and weve seen Mario get SFFd by Link many times in the past. Plus, it seems like Samus is indirectly our #2 character at this point, and if she can resist getting smashed by Mario like she once did, maybe the same would be true if she faced Link. Do I think any of that will ACTUALLY happen? Probably not, but its pretty much all Ive got left to root for this year, which is a sad commentary in and of itself!

Leonharts Vote: Samus Aran

Leonharts Prediction: Mario with 51.75%

Kleenexs Analysis

We just saw this a few days ago, and Samus got way closer than pretty much anyone expected. Part of me wants to say she could flip things here. Unfortunately, every rematch weve seen so far has told us that the results dont change that much. Mega Man was the only one to reverse things so far, but his original match was close enough for variation to matter. I dont think 52/48 is close enough, despite Samus killing Snake today, who went even with Zelda, who just beat Mario. Because, you know, stats. I do kinda hope my theory that ZSS is better than suited Samus these days is tested, because I think thats the one thing that may give her a shot. Otherwise, expect about what we saw last time these two met.

Kleenexs prediction: Mario with 51%

Guests Analysis - War

As I'm writing this I'm watching Snake do all he can to reach 44% against an opponent that he statistically should beat.

There is a reason this is happening.

No, it is not because the opponent he 'should' beat is actually a lot stronger than him. Even though this is true.

No, it is not because we've seen this before, right down to the hype being due to Sonic and Zelda matches. Even though this is also true.

It is because some princess decided to grab for the title of Queen.

Make no mistake, in these contests there is one Queen.

The Queen would not be jealous over King Harkinian playing badminton with another woman.

The Queen would not fear Ganon, a being so weak that he needs to disguise himself as Impa, and could be defeated by Bagu wielding a thing called the Handy Glove.

The Queen would definitely not go on a date to a bar, only for her man to get pissed off at a Daira spilling booze brewed by his parents.

A princess has reached for something far beyond her status, and there is a phrase appropriate for the occasion.

God Save The Queen.

And May Everyone Else Burn.

Samus with 54%

Crew Consensus: Mario does it again.
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Ive been so busy I missed the entire crono mega man until 8 minutes before the end of the poll. Guess I missed another good one

Go my cloud
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what the heck is this
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crono pls
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So much for rematches producing identical results
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five minutes down

please go up this update samus
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also i wish i screenshotted it but when i voted it was like 25-0 crono or something hilarious like that
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Mario probably takes the lead on the next update, but if Samus can hold the line during the Power Hour she's got a real chance
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Bah Samus I have a streak here you're failing me!
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aww well that was fun
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so much for salty runbacks
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That strong board vote for Samus might have been from bracket voting. It's far more likely someone had Samus at this spot in their bracket, where as Mario probably wasn't in this spot on most people's brackets (they had Mario getting to Link in the Legends Final). So that made it easier for someone to vote for Samus this time.
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theres not much left to cheer for this contest. I guess Cloud?
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So is Zelda about to win the Loser's bracket and allow Link to SFF her twice to make her entire half of the bracket look like crap?

Could we seriously see Alucard>Snake in the unadjusted xstats?
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zelda !
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transcience posted...

theres not much left to cheer for this contest. I guess Cloud?

Cloud/Mario (or Cloud/Samus if she comes back) seems to be the only interesting match left to see if Cloud is still strong enough to beat the plumber.
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it feels sad that Cloud never was able to get his revenge against Mario for that 2002 match, and now it's probably too late.

he would've done it in any other contest.
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damn you hierarchy!!!!!
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