Board 8 > Character Battle X Contest Analysis Crew - Part 10

(+) Yeah! (+)

the Zelda we're seeing right now seems consistent with the rest of her matches imhotbqh
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KamikazePotato posted...

Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Auron - 29.03

This one is pretty good too.
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LeonhartFour posted...

the Zelda we're seeing right now seems consistent with the rest of her matches imhotbqh

Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.
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SlugSh0t posted...

transience posted...

anyway, I think this is your conservative ranking this year:

Link
Zelda
Cloud
Mario
Samus
Snake
Crono
Mega Man
Pikachu
Sonic
Tifa
Sephiroth
X
Luigi
Bowser
Yoshi
Ganondorf
Kirby

and then, if you're feeling a little more frisky

Link
Samus
Zelda
Cloud
Snake
Mario
Crono
Mega Man
Pikachu
Kirby
Tifa
Sephiroth
X
Luigi
Yoshi
Bowser
Sonic
Ganondorf

Sonic is > Crono and MM based off today, or at least =ish..stop underestimating him.

the only way you'd get that is if you base him off his loss to Zelda and ignore everything else. but the Zelda he faced was clearly way weaker, as that same Zelda went even with Snake who later lost to Samus 57 - 43. its pretty obvious Zelda got stronger as the legend bracket went on.

the better way to look at it is, Sonic lost to Snake 57-43. Snake then lost to Samus 57-43

Snake's performance on Samus suggests pretty strongly that he is somewhere in the ballpark of Crono and Megaman. it can't be Samus being an absolute monster since Samus herself failed to even get 60% on Tifa. Crono is a bit stronger than Tifa so he should be able to match Snake's performance on Samus.

Sonic is just really weak. Crono and Megaman could probably beat him as bad (or almost) as Snake did.

KamikazePotato posted...

Her performances in her division don't match up with being able to beat guys like Mario and Cloud. She did good but not THAT good, and going even with Snake in Round 1 of the Legends bracket (when the bandwagon wouldn't have materialized yet) is also a red flag when Snake proceeded to get blown out by Samus.

I wouldn't be surprised if she was underrated in the stats, but yeah. The Legends bracket was a mess and made adjusting things...not easy.

I'm hoping we can at least get some good bonus matches to get additional data for some adjustments.
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Crew Predictions: 127/148

Crew Prediction Challenge:

Monika: 125
transience: 123
Kleenex: 121
Leonhart: 119
Guest: 115

Crew Accuracy Challenge: Leonhart gets the point for Link and Kleenex gets the point for Cloud.

transience: 37
Guest: 34 (BetrayedTangy, SuperNiceDog (4), pjbasis, garetha200 (4), ZenOfThunder, Ranticoot (2), Hbthebattle (2), NowItsAngeTime, spooky96 (4), RoseChevalier, Lopen (2), paulg235 (3), DoctorJimmy133, Janus5k, BT, TsunamiXXVIII, ctesjbuvf (2), MetalmindStats (2))
Kleenex: 33
Monika: 24
Leonhart: 22
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Unpopular(?) opinion time: I still think Tifa fared better against Samus than she would have against a neutral character of Samus's strength, just like the previous two contests in which they fought.

hey good on you Cloud, congrats on still being #2 probably
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Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Albert Wesker - 20.19
Tails - 20.19

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5200-character-battle-ix-division-7-round-1-ezio-vs-tails-vs

fear the power of the...uh...super bomberman r boost!?
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So Im guessing the Nintendo and FF power rankings go something like this:

Nintendo:
1. Link
2. Zelda
3. Mario
4: Samus

Final Fantasy:
1. Cloud
2. Tifa
3. Sephiroth
4. Aerith
5. Auron

I'm flipping the script on 2005, where I said Mario could arguably have been stronger than Samus the whole time and it just wasn't seen in the pathing, and saying Samus is clear #2 despite her narrow loss.

No doubt in my mind Samus wrecks Cloud here.
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Tails got SFF'd by Luigi. No way he's that weak.
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Samus performance on Tifa isn't any better than what Cloud did on Crono.

what might suggest her being far above is the Snake match. but that could also easily just be Snake being on par with Crono / Megaman and Sonic being reeeeeeeally weak

Jman_maximum posted...

Sonic being reeeeeeeally weak

You can only make Sonic so weak before Auron starts to stick out like a sore thumb. I'm not saying Auron is super strong but he's not fodder and he beat some solid guys soundly to get there.
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Samus is worth about 60% on Luigi through Tifa while Cloud is worth about 59% on Bowser through Alucard and even more through Crono.

Samus wrecking Cloud would mean Luigi is much stronger than Bowser now which seems a bit odd to me.
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Well I would say outside the match with Kirby Luigi has looked better than Bowser, and has for several years now.

Also keep in mind that current Samus is Smash Fueled and Tifa Samus was not.
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all stats are trash tbqh
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Samus is definitely #2 right now tbqh
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EpsteinBarr posted...

2. Zelda
3. Mario
4: Samus

Pretty sure I'd flip this.
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Lopen's final unofficial analysis

Hey guys I did it. To the two or three people who appreciated me half assing it to support the crew in spirit, I hope I didn't fall down to a quarter ass, and thanks for reading.

Anyway *ANYONE* vs Link is not an interesting match in this climate, no matter how much newfound underdog cred Cloud has now that this site has finally absorbed the truth after Link/Zelda winner finals.

I want to think Cloud can save some face and go for his 46% he likes to get, though. How? I dunno. He'll find a way. Maybe Link fans will have some pity because of the 1 match up Link has. Maybe the antivote crowd will be amplified in the final. Who knows!

Link with 53.99%
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Lopen I always read your analysis! But man this one is the craziest of them all!
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EpsteinBarr posted...

Final Fantasy:
1. Cloud
2. Tifa
3. Sephiroth
4. Aerith
5. Auron

I'd expect Vivi somewhere in there, probably at #4.
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Pretty sure Vivi beats Auron and Aeris and maybe even Squall and Sephiroth now.
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I mean realistically it's a very ambitious percentage. I know that much. But I do feel like the anti-vote/underdog crowd comes out hardest for the final and that's why so many finals have been relatively closer than expected. I also think Cloud has gained strength since the last meeting because of the perception shift of the contest people actually realizing that it's actually the LAW and hasn't been FFVII always wins in like 14 years.

Ambitious or not I do expect Cloud to do significantly better than last time. Better enough that I'm just giving him the 46.01% out of HOPE and BELIEVE. C'mon moral victory you can do it Cloud.
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@Lopen I am with you. But you forgot the DRONES!
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I could see Squall being above Auron now tbh.

How much does Zelda get on Auron again?

so who was the Guest writer of the season???
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Final Battle: Link vs. Cloud

Monikas Analysis

Link
Legends Round 1 - 79.64% vs. Ganondorf
Legends Round 2 - 68.41% vs. Pikachu
Legends Round 3 - 60.52% vs. Cloud Strife
Legends Round 4 - 63.56% vs. Zelda

Cloud
Legends Round 1 - 60.40% vs. Alucard
Legends Round 2 - 56.73% vs. Crono
Legends Round 3 - 39.48% vs. Link
Losers Round 4 - 50.24% vs. Mario
Losers Finals - ~50.80% vs. Zelda

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7378

Monikas Voting Tip of the Day: You know, it kinda sucks to be the creative type...It feels like the Crew works so hard but get almost nothing for it. You know, like artists, writers, actors...It's sad because there's so much beautiful talent in the world, but most of it goes unseen...and unpaid. I guess that just means there's a huge surplus of creativity, huh? Kind of makes you feel like you're just not special at all...But that's fine! You're supposed to just write for yourself anyway, right?

Yeah...

Monikas Prediction of the Day: Link 60%

...That's my advice for today! Thanks for listening~
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transiences Analysis

Barring a weird comeback, we've got Link vs. Cloud II, or XIV depending on how you want to categorize it. There's honestly nothing to say at this point. Link is about to put up the most dominant contest run of his storied career. (That's maybe overselling it.)

This is probably a little closer than the last matchup since Cloud has become somewhat of a plucky underdog, but this won't be close outside of the first 5, maybe 10 minutes. Most likely just the first 2 or 3.

I enjoyed the innovation of the loser's bracket, but if we have another character battle I hope it doesn't return. This last week has really dragged on as we've seen rematch after rematch.

transience's prediction: Link with 60.24%

Leonharts Analysis

Unfortunately, I dont have time to wait and see who will come out on top between Cloud and Zelda since Ill be working all day, but the result should be just about the same either way. Weve already seen Link 60/40 both of these characters, and theres no reason to believe that result changes. They might do a little bit better than last time just as a last-ditch effort to try to get Link to lose, but itd be a minimal improvement at best.

So I guess I should take the time to say thanks to everyone who read all these writeups this year, even though this is probably the worst Ive ever done on the Crew! Thanks as always to Moltar for running this every contest and for letting me be a part of it for the last several ones. Its one of my favorite parts of contest season, even this year when we were having to churn out 4 writeups per day half the time! Until next time!

Leonharts Vote: Cloud Strife/Zelda (a.k.a. Not-Link)

Leonharts Prediction: Link with 59.99%
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Kleenexs Analysis

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite all the craziness that went on in the Legends bracket, at the end of the day, were still here with Link vs. Cloud in the finals. Its nice that Cloud seems like hes still probably the #2 guy on the site, but its also disappointing that Link is so far ahead of the field at this point that it doesnt matter. We already saw these guys go at it a week or two ago, and Cloud had his worst performance against Link but a lot. Like, a shocking amount. Im hopeful he can do a bit better here, maybe some Link anti-votes, maybe some CLOUDMENTUM from winning 2 matches in a row, taking out the villainous Mario and finally toppling Zelda. He still doesnt have a chance unless something truly strange happens.

And seeing as its the finals, a quick reflection on the contest as a whole. It was pretty good. I think the Legend bracket was a great idea, and while I do wish we were able to avoid the repeat matches, they actually ended up providing us with some good entertainment - between the Mega Man/Pikachu flip, and the almost-but-not-quite victory by Samus over Mario. There were a ton of super close matches, more than weve ever had in a single contest. The regular bracket was pretty fun too, though it would have been nice to see it out to its actual conclusion (though at this point it doesnt seem like theres any doubt that Zelda would have won in the absence of the Legends bracket). I definitely wouldnt mind seeing this format again going forward, though maybe without the week long break that really killed the momentum of things in the middle.

So thats about it. Thanks to everyone for reading all this nonsense again. Good job Link on your 7th (7th!) contest win, and good job Crono for not breaking the NN for the first time in 10 years!

Kleenexs Prediction: 7-time GameFAQs Character Battle Champion, and the Greatest Video Game Character in History - THE UNDISPUTED KING, Link with 58%

Guest's Analysis - Hbthebattle

Lets be real here, no matter who wins todays match Link wins. He wins every time. Such is the LAW.

Instead, im going to talk about Link this contest. He SFFed and destroyed Pikachu and Ganondorf, and while Cloud and Zelda can resist him better its not by much. Meanwhile, every other character in the contest has the capability to hold an interesting match with an unexpected result. Who predicted that Zelda would be this strong this year? Who predicted Sephiroth losing to Tifa, a historically unthinkable result. These matches are perfect examples of the enthralling ability of variability and interesting results. Meanwhile, the only interesting thing Link has done is not squash Zelda as quickly as he did Ganondorf.

Im not saying Link should be completely barred from contests outright, but I do think him not being here would make the Legends bracket have a far less predictable ending. Can anyone definitely say they would know who the winner would be if Link wasnt here? No, no they could not. Link is in a weight class of his own- nothing beyond a powerful rally can beat him. What I suggest is maybe just have him be the reigning champion or some shit, and each contests winner gets the chance to take him out.

Im just saying, maybe this match wouldnt be a snooze if we tried it.

62.34% on Zelda

60.22% on Cloud

Crew Consensus: Link Always Wins
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You wanna know what to do with Link?

Have a normal 64 entrant bracket, no Link.

Every day you run two matches. The first day you run Link vs CATS and the match for the day.

Each day afterwards, you have Link fight the guy who got eliminated the previous day alongside the normal match. If anyone can beat Link, they take his place and continue to run the gauntlet.

Grand final is the winner of the Link gauntlet vs the winner of the bracket.

I think it'd be awesome.
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I would've been happy just to have bracket winner vs. Link at the end, yeah. The only issue there is that it wouldn't work quite as well in a rally contest, but eh. Nothing does.
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I don't like the idea of retiring Link outright. One match of Link is just not enough. I think the gauntlet is cool because it tests the theory of whether Link fatigue can ever occur, and it gives GameFAQs what it wants (more LINK)
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what if next contest instead of 64 or 128 new characters, every match is just Link dressed up as someone else

Link dressed as Mario vs. Link dressed as Samus who you got
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Lopen posted...

I don't like the idea of retiring Link outright. One match of Link is just not enough. I think the gauntlet is cool because it tests the theory of whether Link fatigue can ever occur, and it gives GameFAQs what it wants (more LINK)

It's gamefaqs.
If there was a troll contest with a Link match every single day against 128 entrants and if he lost once he would be eliminated, he probably would still win, even if people would have to vote for Link every day for 4 months.

Averia posted...

If there was a troll contest with a Link match every single day against 128 entrants and if he lost once he would be eliminated, he probably would still win, even if people would have to vote for Link every day for 4 months.

I agree

The idea isn't to actually defeat Link since it probably wouldn't happen even with 64 straight wins needed. It's to let Link have matches while still having a contest going on underneath him.
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Thanks to all the crew for all the analysis! I read all of them for all matches of course. So many years and you still do it! Nice! Of course there was an unofficial member too this time but he deservers big credits too!
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Safer_777 posted...

Thanks to all the crew for all the analysis! I read all of them for all matches of course. So many years and you still do it! Nice! Of course there was an unofficial member too this time but he deservers big credits too!

props to guests too?? Like me and garetha and all the others?
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Yeah I didn't mentioned that because there were so many guests it would be impossible to post all of them. Also the Guests came 2nd place on predictions too!
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Lopen posted...

You wanna know what to do with Link?

Have a normal 64 entrant bracket, no Link.

Every day you run two matches. The first day you run Link vs CATS and the match for the day.

Each day afterwards, you have Link fight the guy who got eliminated the previous day alongside the normal match. If anyone can beat Link, they take his place and continue to run the gauntlet.

Grand final is the winner of the Link gauntlet vs the winner of the bracket.

I think it'd be awesome.

I am ready to vote for Link 64 times.

transience you should have picked cloud in the finals so you had an outside shot to tie moltar!
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I could also try to walk on water
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Thanks for another great year crew. Very impressed with moltsrs writing, as always.
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go my cloud
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well that was a fun 4.5 minutes
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cloud can't even lead at the freeze like Zelda did

FRAUD STRIFE
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well, there it goes. until next time
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Nice finals

I missed the whole of this contest (and the whole of the last contest, though it seems there wasn't much to miss) up to the Legends Bracket commencing, but as soon as I started reading you guys' write ups I was right back into it. Thanks.

Especially to Moltar - love your writing.
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