Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1319

(+) Yeah! (+)

It's still not a given there's SFF in Cloud/Crono. That's all armchair theory and not really based on any results.
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In Crono/Cloud 1, he underperformed his Alucard & Bowser projections by like...1%. If there's SFF there, it's minor.
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Well what I mean is, theyre both the protagonists in their game, both from mainstream RPGs, developed by the same company, and have extremely similar artistic styles in their appearances.

Odds are, people voting played both games and just like Cloud slightly more.

Yeah I know why you said that.

And I'm telling you that it's simply not based on actual match results, so it likely does not exist.

For all the similarities you give I can give you reasons that they should have pretty distinct fanbases that won't fold disproportionately to another too. Being featured on different consoles that tend to not fold to one another, and having a very different type of character being two major ones (Crono more closely resembles a Nintendo character in that he doesn't really have one)
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MetalmindStats posted...

MWC gon' MWC.

Hey mother fucker, here's a question.

Have YOU been saying on this board for a month Zelda was making the Winner's final while everyone laughed and you stuck to your guns and GUARANTEED she was beating Snake while idiots said Snake would get near 60?

Cool. Didn't think so.

What about saying Crono would beat MM?

Ok?

Did you extol Samus>Mario?

Did you call Seph NN #9 even before we got to the Legends Bracket?

Nope.

Cool.

I did. Pretty confident the only matches I predicted wrong so far were Tifa Seph.... cause even I didn't think he could fall that far. And MM pikachu 1. I picked Crono over Cloud in the bracket but that was a complete fanboy pick and I made it clear on here I didn't think it would actually happen, but with CT looming like god if EVER there was a time to pick a stupid underdog you love this is it...

I have been SO FUCKING RIGHT this contest.

Name one loud blustery confident pick I've made so far I was wrong on. You can't.

I know what the fuck I'm talking about with where these clowns currently stand.

And while it is fun watching you people who would ********** Snake given the chance to do so prop him up as not as zombie. It's also not true.

That's the order. Stick it down your fucking throat!

Youre trying to tell me that most people voting Cloud over Crono havent played both games? And that most of them only played FF7 and thats why he won? I disagree. However, I would say another reason Cloud won so easily is because of Smash. So to your point, that has nothing to do with SFF.

Well it's been said for years that there's SFF in every match. I reckon Cloud and Crono have higher-than-normal overlap. Probably nothing too telling though.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Samus needs to pull away from Mario first.

She listened.
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You'd think if you got so much right you'd be on a leaderboard. At least the second chance one.
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I think FF VII>CT proves there is absolutely SFF between the games.

I find it hard to believe (though I'll at least admit to the possibility) that the games have SFF but their main characters don't.

Moonroof posted...

Youre trying to tell me that most people voting Cloud over Crono havent played both games? And that most of them only played FF7 and thats why he won? I disagree. However, I would say another reason Cloud won so easily is because of Smash. So to your point, that has nothing to do with SFF.

SFF only applies if the fanbases disproportionately favor one over the other. I mean most people who have played FF7 have played Super Mario Bros that doesn't mean Mario SFFs Cloud or vice versa.
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I maintain that CT would have beaten FFVII had Undertale not ruined the greatest games match we could have ever seen.

Lopen posted...

You'd think if you got so much right you'd be on a leaderboard. At least the second chance one.

I wish I knew

1: what account I did it on
2: if being banned discounts them (with the "leader" we have this wouldn't even surprise me.
3: if it was put through.

Lopen posted...

Moonroof posted...

Youre trying to tell me that most people voting Cloud over Crono havent played both games? And that most of them only played FF7 and thats why he won? I disagree. However, I would say another reason Cloud won so easily is because of Smash. So to your point, that has nothing to do with SFF.

SFF only applies if the fanbases disproportionately favor one over the other. I mean most people who have played FF7 have played Super Mario Bros that doesn't mean Mario SFFs Cloud or vice versa.

Those are totally different series though. It wouldnt be surprising why people would prefer one over the other and that there would be dissenting votes.

It turns out people prefer games over other games and characters over other characters

Unless it's done in a way that favors one in a lopsided way that's called contest strength not SFF
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Moonroof posted...

I maintain that CT would have beaten FFVII had Undertale not ruined the greatest games match we could have ever seen.

The greatest match we ever had just happened.

Zelda>Mario.

Always remember
Never forget.
Fuck that lack of personality plumber

What the fuck happened there
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And there

Fuck OFF Samus
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Its the same thing for Mario and Luigi. You might think, who would ever vote Mario but not for Luigi? We know this mentality is wrong, per years of contests and results. And when these two go against each other, it isnt even close because practically all of the voters prefer one over the other. Aka SFF.

As far as non-series-shared-but-still-similar characters go (Cloud and Crono, any two non-N9 Smash characters, etc.), there is going to be overlap. Obviously not to the extent of regular SFF, but a non-negligible amount.

I understand that the extrapolated projections were spot-on for Crono, but Im saying you cant properly gauge him and Cloud from their match.

By the way: I'm currently making the X-stats for Division 1-4 (they're fairly easy to do, while 5-8 are going to suck), and everyone looks hilariously weak because of how strong Link is. Zidane gets 23% on him.
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Moonroof posted...

And when these two go against each other, it isnt even close because practically all of the voters prefer one over the other. Aka SFF.

This clearly does not happen in Cloud vs Crono based on the results so I'm not sure what you're getting at?

Moonroof posted...

I understand that the extrapolated projections were spot-on for Crono, but Im saying you cant properly gauge him and Cloud from their match.

So we can't use the extrapolated projections and we can't use the direct match, so what should we use then? Kau Cim sticks? Divination through visions gained while taking a bath in the rejuvenating blood of a thousand virgins?
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What happened? How did this trend start? It went from even-ish updates to 30-vote gains.
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I have always maintained there was loads of SFF in Crono Cloud. And will continue to do so.

Same company, a couple years apart. Same genre. Ton of the same crew working on it.

That's more than enough.

But then you remember after VII became such a runaway success that either that year or next they had Final Fantasy Chronicles on PSX which was IV and CT and also sold a bunch of copies.

I'm not like angry confident about it where I'd snarl or cuss at people who disagree and say why they are wrong (like Snake>Zelda... lol, fucking fools!) but I also don't know what type of evidence I'd ever require to see to change my mind on it, because it's just so obvious to me that there clearly is that it would have to be just stark 100% proof there isn't that would ever waver my confidence on it.

FinalFantasyVll posted...

Did you call Seph NN #9 even before we got to the Legends Bracket?

I'm actually less confident that Sephiroth is the bottom rung of the Noble Nine than I was before the Legends bracket began. I may or may not have ever posted as much, but I sure didn't try to boast and shove it up other peoples' faces all over the place, desperately, as if nothing else in my life was going right. Your antics are about as hilarious as pretending that radioactive waste would give Sonic the fight of his life.

MetalmindStats posted...

FinalFantasyVll posted...

Did you call Seph NN #9 even before we got to the Legends Bracket?

I'm actually less confident that Sephiroth is the bottom rung of the Noble Nine than I was before the Legends bracket began. I may or may not have ever posted as much, but I sure didn't try to boast and shove it up other peoples' faces all over the place, desperately, as if nothing else in my life was going right. Your antics are about as hilarious as pretending that radioactive waste would give Sonic the fight of his life.

Bro. I've actually been quite calm about it the whole contest. How many topics have you seen my bragging about being right? Even Zelda>Snake which is seriously my favorite match ever cause fuck Snake..., nope, didn't happen.

I went off on you cause you're trying to make fun while I've been right on damn near every opinion I've had in this topic and board since Zelda mercy killed Assassins creed....

I said that Day Zelda is #2. The clear #2.

And she is. (Unless somehow Cloud is stronger, which... I can't imagine he is)

I don't give a fuck what happens in the losers bracket for rematches. If Zelda loses its cause they don't want to see Zelda fed to Link again, see what someone else can do.

FinalFantasyVll posted...

Bro. I've actually been quite calm about it the whole contest. How many topics have you seen my bragging about being right? Even Zelda>Snake which is seriously my favorite match ever cause fuck Snake..., nope, didn't happen.

Not topics (a word I didn't use, you might note), but certainly plenty of posts.

FinalFantasyVll posted...

I said that Day Zelda is #2. The clear #2. And she is. (Unless somehow Cloud is stronger, which... I can't imagine he is)

If true (and it's hard to say for sure given all the weirdness we've seen so far), this reflects really well on Snake...!

Snake would beat Megaman or Crono.
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FinalFantasyVll posted...

If Zelda loses its cause they don't want to see Zelda fed to Link again, see what someone else can do.

Copout defense. Several matches that would've flipped if that actually mattered.
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Luigiman59 posted...

Snake would beat Megaman or Crono.

He would not.

0%

Clearly inferior.

Clearly 7.

Would nuke Sonic
Would run Seph over like a train. (Sadface)

Gets blasted by top 6.

Zelda in her worst match all contest plus "MSG clutch" and he still lost.

He is simply not on their level.

I'm BEGGING SB for Snake vs Crono bonus.... but he'll probably pick stupid ones that don't actually show anything like Seph vs someone that isn't Sonic, or Sonic Mario, or Pikachu Zelda or some really really dumb obvious shit.

LOL
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Sonic>Sephiroth is only being said because Sephiroth underperformed, because we had high expectations
We don't expect anything out of Sonic so as much as he sucks we didn't think he underperformed, so it's easy to consider "the one that did as expected is stronger than the one that underperformed"

Sephiroth easily beat Sonic, he always sucked and always will
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This is weird. Mario stalls then Samus gets these devastating 5-6 update bursts.
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Charge beam dude
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XIII_rocks posted...

This is weird. Mario stalls then Samus gets these devastating 5-6 update bursts.

Lopen posted...

Charge beam dude

Do you two mind if I Sig this?

I plagiarized my half of the exchange from a wandering warlord I wouldn't recommend it
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KamikazePotato posted...

By the way: I'm currently making the X-stats for Division 1-4 (they're fairly easy to do, while 5-8 are going to suck), and everyone looks hilariously weak because of how strong Link is. Zidane gets 23% on him.

So how are you going to handle the totally logical legends brackets like Mario/Zelda and Samus/Mario ?
If strength can vary that much in a few days, that's going to be a mess.

UltimaterializerX posted...

Chrono Trigger 100% wins that 2015 contest without Melee/Undertale rallies. There was just no way that game was losing.

Comes 2nd you mean
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UltimaterializerX posted...

Chrono Trigger 100% wins that 2015 contest without Melee/Undertale rallies. There was just no way that game was losing.

If OoT needed, it would have rallied past CT.
Zelda might not have mega rallies but it still have enough rally power to get pass a few % differences if needed.
And considering how there is nowhere to counter rally for CT, I don't think it could have been stopped.

I'm the biggest OoT fan maybe on Earth, and definitely on B8....

We had no chance, we weren't winning.

CT may honestly have put up 54.

Preliminary X-stats for Division 1-4. SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Link - 50
Cloud - 39.48
Crono - 35.48
Mega Man - 35.33
Pikachu - 34.86
Ganondorf - 32.98
Bowser - 32.06
Kirby - 32
Vivi - 31.68
Yoshi - 31.51
Alucard - 31.27
Zero - 30.29
Pokemon Trainer Red - 28.89
Dante - 28.75
Donkey Kong - 28.53
Sora - 28.37
Charizard - 27.86
Big Boss - 27.63
Chun-Li - 27.1
Princess Peach - 27.01
2B - 26.81
Knuckles - 26.56
Terra Branford - 26.3
Crash Bandicoot - 26.04
Kratos - 25.51
Kefka - 25.36
Leon Kennedy - 25.29
Yuna - 25.25
Ness - 24.82
Phoenix Wright - 24.58
Tidus - 24.57
Ike - 24.25
Wario - 24.08
Ridley - 23.95
Cecil Harvey - 23.86
Spyro the Dragon - 23.75
Scorpion - 23.42
Shadow the Hedgehog - 23.2
Zidane Tribal - 22.95
Chris Redfield - 21.17
Bomberman - 20.38
L-Block - 20.2
Lightning - 19.77
Isaac - 19.01
Master Hand - 18.8
Velvet Crowe - 18.55
Joel - 18.28
Ryo Hazuki - 17.54
Monika - 17.07
Cuphead - 16.34
Guile - 16.29
Shantae - 16.22
Noctis Lucis Caelum - 15.96
Kazuma Kiryu - 15.95
Yu Narukami - 15.91
Dragonborn - 15.84
Primrose - 15.64
Aya Brea - 15.56
Gordon Freeman - 14.5
James Sunderland - 14.45
Neptune - 14.26
Neku Sakuraba - 14.11
Godot - 13.86
John Marston - 13.68
Estelle Bright - 13.45
Victor Sullivan - 12.58
Cayde-6 - 11.9
Chloe Price - 8.65
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Lopen posted...

Moonroof posted...

And when these two go against each other, it isnt even close because practically all of the voters prefer one over the other. Aka SFF.

This clearly does not happen in Cloud vs Crono based on the results so I'm not sure what you're getting at?

Moonroof posted...

I understand that the extrapolated projections were spot-on for Crono, but Im saying you cant properly gauge him and Cloud from their match.

So we can't use the extrapolated projections and we can't use the direct match, so what should we use then? Kau Cim sticks? Divination through visions gained while taking a bath in the rejuvenating blood of a thousand virgins?

Amazing post.

What a waste of virgins though. Surely thered be better things to do with them >_> <_<

OOT rallies wouldn't have worked. OOT was the favorite, the force that always wins. Link got that rally against Draven because he was the underdog, the hero.
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creativename posted...

Lopen posted...

Moonroof posted...

And when these two go against each other, it isnt even close because practically all of the voters prefer one over the other. Aka SFF.

This clearly does not happen in Cloud vs Crono based on the results so I'm not sure what you're getting at?

Moonroof posted...

I understand that the extrapolated projections were spot-on for Crono, but Im saying you cant properly gauge him and Cloud from their match.

So we can't use the extrapolated projections and we can't use the direct match, so what should we use then? Kau Cim sticks? Divination through visions gained while taking a bath in the rejuvenating blood of a thousand virgins?

Amazing post.

What a waste of virgins though. Surely thered be better things to do with them >_> <_<

I think the answer is we set Crono at whatever number he needs to get 50.05% on Mario and declare ourselves satisfied.
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Basic adjustments made:

1. Spend like 20 minutes meticulously checking every result in the past for Ike and Phoenix Wright and concluded that their unadjusted stat (even after bumping Kirby up) was completely nonsensical. Adjusted Ike based on his 2010 ratio to Ness and called it a day.
2. Set Kirby to slightly weaker than Bowser because fuck if I know.
3. Tried to different contants for Division 1. Setting Ganondorf=Bowser and adjusting based on that made everyone except Ganondorf look really bad. Setting Tidus=Yuna made Ganondorf too strong. Averaged the two constants and called it a day.
4. Used the second Mega Man/Pikachu match.
5. Adjusted Crono through Alucard and Bowser (bumped him up like 1% vs. Cloud).

And probably some other stuff I'm forgetting.
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Link draven is still the greatest match of any contest. Kind of like a gamefaqs vs reddit war

And poor Shepard as well
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Mario is winning in the UK, so this overnight could be a little painful for Samus. If you look at last match though, her percentage had already pretty much bottomed out by this point and come morning, she rose 0.70% from there until the end of the match. And she is winning in both the US and Canada right now, which matches that. I think Mario is pretty cooked here, with most of his hopes hanging on later voters not being as contest-aware as earlier voters and not switching their vote because Mario won round 1.
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