Board 8 > Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1320

(+) Yeah! (+)

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.
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KamikazePotato posted...

Nanis, please don't quote Ulti posts.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Mario clutching it out against Samus reminds people who love him of WHY they love him.

Yeah, that only works if you're not the villain. First example I can think of is Sephiroth holding back Missingno in 2010. That did NOT turn out well for him.

As a counterpoint, look at the people here cheering for the plumber. He's not universally reviled in the slightest for this. People want to see Mario redeem himself. This match was an incredibly long time coming after Mario/Vivi. I know I fucking yelled when I saw he'd won because after seeing downer after downer with my favorites stinking up the joint all over, my biggest contest favorite doing something magical was a huge redemption. Mario has just as much to prove as Zelda here - he's been doubted as the #2 since 2010, and if he can flip the result against her when she's on infinite steroids, it'll finally confirm it. I'mt not saying he's guaranteed to win here. Only that you shouldn't count him out.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

I'm pretty sure if we do this again in a year or two, Samus should be a consensus favorite to beat Mario. Smash Ultimate gonna help Samus a lot more than Mario.
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

I'm pretty sure if we do this again in a year or two, Samus should be a consensus favorite to beat Mario. Smash Ultimate gonna help Samus a lot more than Mario.

Yeah this match WAS the Smash Ultimate effect.

It still wasn't enough.
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Kanz, you are looking at this from the perspective of a mega Mario fan who always wants him to win. I can tell you that as someone who is ambivalent towards both Mario and Samus, that my vote for Zelda>Mario next round was made 100% in stone due to how this match played out.
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

Samus probably cheated against Sonic too, if you really want to bring it up.

Did she? I'm not 100% up on my Contest lore (joined in 2005ish).

And Crono was *caught* cheating (if you believe CJayC).

n_n
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UltimaterializerX posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

Why? It was a loser bracket match. Means as much as a ? Block bonus poll.

It was an official contest match. The winner advanced to the next round to face Cloud.

And there is no way Samus is getting this close to winning again.
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Hi5, Ulti! I'm gonna see if I can't get my friends to vote for the fat man if he gets to Zelda. If ever there was a time to put in effort for a contest match, that'll be it. Let's make something happen!
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Fingers crossed for Cloud > Mario, followed by Zelda > Cloud.

It's a long shot, but it's the only way I'm going anywhere but down.
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WarThaNemesis2 posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

I'm pretty sure if we do this again in a year or two, Samus should be a consensus favorite to beat Mario. Smash Ultimate gonna help Samus a lot more than Mario.

Yeah this match WAS the Smash Ultimate effect.

It still wasn't enough.

This was some of it. But the trends have been clear for a while now. Samus is getting more popular (directly) relative to Mario. Today just wasn't past the inflection point. Unless Mario has a good boost (that Samus doesn't) soon, Samus will outright pass Mario, and very soon.
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So what are the prizes for the leaderboard? Last time I was high on the leaderboard I wasn't prize eligible due to living in the UK but now I'm in the states. I didn't actually look at what the prizes are when I made my bracket and now I can't seem to find the page that states it

KamikazePotato posted...

Kanz, you are looking at this from the perspective of a mega Mario fan who always wants him to win. I can tell you that as someone who is ambivalent towards both Mario and Samus, that my vote for Zelda>Mario next round was made 100% in stone due to how this match played out.

Yeah I get what you mean

It's just...I'm not alone you know? Mario won and that doesn't happen if people just don't like him. There's a lot of people who really care about Mario, even if it doesn't make a lot of sense to neutrals. I think this match was as removed of SFF as you can possibly get and he managed to pull off a miracle. I can't write him off after this - I just can't. If he goes down, so be it, but I'll go down with the ship then!
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Samus already wins this match if we take out the registered voter boost. You don't need to wait years for more trends to happen. Remove the boost, wait a week, and she wins.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

It's just...I'm not alone you know? Mario won and that doesn't happen if people just don't like him. There's a lot of people who really care about Mario, even if it doesn't make a lot of sense to neutrals.

You're trying to convince the neutrals here. The people who were already going to vote for Mario>Zelda may be 'emboldened' after this result but what does it matter? Their votes were already locked in.

I think this match was as removed of SFF as you can possibly get and he managed to pull off a miracle.

>_________________>
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Mario colluded with CJayC, who not only did nothing while the poll received on the order of 10,000 "rallied" votes in 2003, but extended the poll by 27 minutes so that Mario could finish. Wasn't Mario caught pushing a male/female poll on male-dominated places around the internet that actually voted in Mario vs. Crono?

That said, Mario does his job as contest villain very very well. That's why we hate him and that's why we love him. Good luck to Samus in round 4.
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ShatteredElysium posted...

So what are the prizes for the leaderboard? Last time I was high on the leaderboard I wasn't prize eligible due to living in the UK but now I'm in the states. I didn't actually look at what the prizes are when I made my bracket and now I can't seem to find the page that states it

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx
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Mariowned
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KamikazePotato posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

Samus probably cheated against Sonic too, if you really want to bring it up.

Did she? I'm not 100% up on my Contest lore (joined in 2005ish).

Can we *prove* it? No. But that 2002 match against Sonic was all kinds of crazy unlikely. It was an absurd comeback, and it had a lot of weird trends that made no sense.

Then again, if 2002 didn't have all the craziness that it did (we literally got Samus/Sonic shenanigans, a Sephiroth/Mega Man epic, and then Mario/Cloud shenanigans on back-to-back-to-back days), these things probably never really take off the way they did. There were almost certainly at least two cheating matches (not even counting Mario/Crono) that contest, and the whole thing was just awesome.
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red sox 777 posted...

Mario colluded with CJayC, who not only did nothing while the poll received on the order of 10,000 "rallied" votes in 2003, but extended the poll by 27 minutes so that Mario could finish. Wasn't Mario caught pushing a male/female poll on male-dominated places around the internet that actually voted in Mario vs. Crono?

That said, Mario does his job as contest villain very very well. That's why we hate him and that's why we love him. Good luck to Samus in round 4.

The male/female poll was the Mario/Cloud match a week prior.
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Also, the male/female poll explains how Mario could bring in 10,000 extra votes but only pick up maybe 2,000 votes against Crono. That kind of rallying has a built in backfire rate.
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KamikazePotato posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

It's just...I'm not alone you know? Mario won and that doesn't happen if people just don't like him. There's a lot of people who really care about Mario, even if it doesn't make a lot of sense to neutrals.

You're trying to convince the neutrals here. The people who were already going to vote for Mario>Zelda may be 'emboldened' after this result but what does it matter? Their votes were already locked in.

I think this match was as removed of SFF as you can possibly get and he managed to pull off a miracle.

>_________________>

It's like you said man

samus was ahead in raw vote intake

How can you say the person with less raw vote intake SFF'd the one with more? That doesn't even make any sense, the gamefaqs core userbase just likes Mario in general
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

ShatteredElysium posted...

So what are the prizes for the leaderboard? Last time I was high on the leaderboard I wasn't prize eligible due to living in the UK but now I'm in the states. I didn't actually look at what the prizes are when I made my bracket and now I can't seem to find the page that states it

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/features/cbx

Thanks! That's actually better than I expected.

I guess if I win I'll buy my friends kids a Switch for xmas or something

Mario was leading against Crono at midnight in 2003, not his fault CJayC started the poll early.
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While it sucks Samus couldn't get her big win I've always preferred Mario and never really cared much for Samus so cool from my personal preference persepective
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KamikazePotato posted...

Mario>Samus is the most villainous result we've had in like, forever. Samus was reversing a 40-60 loss from 12 years ago, overcoming the Nintendo Hierarchy, overcoming bracket votes, and overcoming the Registered Voter Bonus which I will remind is equivalent to 400+ stuffed votes, overcoming rabid Mario ralliers literally going door-to-door asking people to vote. She came one update away from overcoming all that through raw strength alone. It's like an anime ending except the cheating villain won.

Good plotline tbh. I would love to watch an Anime where the hero gets destroyed by the villain in embarrassing fashion and then spends the next 13 years growing to finally get her re-match, only to narrowly be defeated this time due to being unable to unleash her full power. Then in the final arc, she finally unleashes her full power and gains the upperhand on the villain for the first time, but the crafty villain finds a way through devious tactics to bring the fight to a last hit situation and picks up that 3rd W in a fade to black. Would be a pretty refreshing story.
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KanzarisKelshen posted...

How can you say the person with less raw vote intake SFF'd the one with more?

It's called rSFF and the Samus/Mario matches this contest basically confirmed that it exists
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TheOneAboveAll posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

TheOneAboveAll posted...

WarThaNemesis2 posted...

Samus is my favorite non-FFIV character, and this was pretty much her only chance to ever beat Mario.

I guess I'm left hoping these contests are over with after this, because she's never getting this shot again.

Just feel burned out.

I'm pretty sure if we do this again in a year or two, Samus should be a consensus favorite to beat Mario. Smash Ultimate gonna help Samus a lot more than Mario.

Yeah this match WAS the Smash Ultimate effect.

It still wasn't enough.

This was some of it. But the trends have been clear for a while now. Samus is getting more popular (directly) relative to Mario. Today just wasn't past the inflection point. Unless Mario has a good boost (that Samus doesn't) soon, Samus will outright pass Mario, and very soon.

Samus is going to drop relative to Mario (compared to today) as Smash Ultimate immediate release excitement dies down, which helps her more than it helps Mario, especially with Metroid having possibly the most hyped newcomer.

Like, maybe Metroid Prime 4 will recover that in time, but that still puts her below Mario.

This was Samus with everything she had, and it lost. Anyone who thinks Samus is beating Mario is delusional. Cloud beating Link in the near future is more likely.
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Zeldas strength this contest makes no damn sense. From almost losing to snake to only getting 57 on Sonic tonbesting mario and this is her best performance so far against Link.
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charmander6000 posted...

Mario was leading against Crono at midnight in 2003, not his fault CJayC started the poll early.

Mario is smart, he got CJayC to start the poll at 23:40 and end at 24:07 so it wouldn't look as bad. Although, I think the average poll start time in 2003 was around 23:50.....it fluctuated slightly every day but I don't know if we had any other matches longer than 24:05 or shorter than 23:55, except for Mario/Crono, which came in at 24:27.
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Link versus Cloud posted...

KamikazePotato posted...

Mario>Samus is the most villainous result we've had in like, forever. Samus was reversing a 40-60 loss from 12 years ago, overcoming the Nintendo Hierarchy, overcoming bracket votes, and overcoming the Registered Voter Bonus which I will remind is equivalent to 400+ stuffed votes, overcoming rabid Mario ralliers literally going door-to-door asking people to vote. She came one update away from overcoming all that through raw strength alone. It's like an anime ending except the cheating villain won.

Good plotline tbh. I would love to watch an Anime where the hero gets destroyed by the villain in embarrassing fashion and then spends the next 13 years growing to finally get her re-match, only to narrowly be defeated this time due to being unable to unleash her full power. Then in the final arc, she finally unleashes her full power and gains the upperhand on the villain for the first time, but the crafty villain finds a way through devious tactics to bring the fight to a last hit situation and picks up that 3rd W in a fade to black. Would be a pretty refreshing story.

I'm pretty sure a boxing manga has done this before, on that note

I know Ashita no Joe ends with the hero losing, for instance

KamikazePotato posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

How can you say the person with less raw vote intake SFF'd the one with more?

It's called rSFF and the Samus/Mario matches this contest basically confirmed that it exists

I'm still skeptical. RSFF doesn't flip 15% around. Would sooner believe Mario is a bit stronger than Samus and runback wonkiness let her come closer than expected. Guess we'll see if this theory holds with Mario flipping the result on Zelda!
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Snake/Zelda, Zelda/Mario, and Samus/Snake heavily imply that Samus is a significant step above Mario. She wouldn't bulldoze him with indirect strength but I think something like 54-46 is about right. It's a pretty easy thing to buy considering what happened in 2006 - the hierarchy favors who it favors.
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Cloud better fucking kill this c***, and if you voted or rooted for this vote stuffing asshole fuck you!

Samus cheated in 02 as well though, for what it's worth.

It's just Mario is now up to DOUBLE DIGIT cheats.
Get fucked XIII and CTES and KP specifically

red sox 777 posted...

charmander6000 posted...

Mario was leading against Crono at midnight in 2003, not his fault CJayC started the poll early.

Mario is smart, he got CJayC to start the poll at 23:40 and end at 24:07 so it wouldn't look as bad. Although, I think the average poll start time in 2003 was around 23:50.....it fluctuated slightly every day but I don't know if we had any other matches longer than 24:05 or shorter than 23:55, except for Mario/Crono, which came in at 24:27.

Polls typically started up to 20 minutes early unless the previous match was close in which case the match went to midnight, anyone keeping an eye on the contest would have known that.
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red sox 777 posted...

Also, the male/female poll explains how Mario could bring in 10,000 extra votes but only pick up maybe 2,000 votes against Crono. That kind of rallying has a built in backfire rate.

I have no idea what the real code used looked like but there was absolutely no reason not to hook up both options to vote for the same character. That way there's no chance to backfire.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Also, the male/female poll explains how Mario could bring in 10,000 extra votes but only pick up maybe 2,000 votes against Crono. That kind of rallying has a built in backfire rate.

I have no idea what the real code used looked like but there was absolutely no reason not to hook up both options to vote for the same character. That way there's no chance to backfire.

Let's be clear: We're not 100% positive that the random poll actually was hooked back into our contest.
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Team Rocket Elite posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Also, the male/female poll explains how Mario could bring in 10,000 extra votes but only pick up maybe 2,000 votes against Crono. That kind of rallying has a built in backfire rate.

I have no idea what the real code used looked like but there was absolutely no reason not to hook up both options to vote for the same character. That way there's no chance to backfire.

But that way risks being caught. Mario coming back 800 votes on Crono in 2-3 hours with the second night vote after doing nothing with the day vote? Suspicious. Mario gaining 8000 votes in 3 hours with the SNV? Obvious stuffing.
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charmander6000 posted...

Polls typically started up to 20 minutes early unless the previous match was close in which case the match went to midnight, anyone keeping an eye on the contest would have known that.

Was there a reason for the polls sometimes starting early back in 2003? Maybe CJayC didn't have a way to automate the process of having the polls go up at the same time everyday, so he did them manually.
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Mario you bastard

I probably posted it in one of the stats topics years ago but I did do a trendline analysis for Mario/Crono 2003 along the lines of what Lopen did for the Draven matches, and that's where the 10,000 number is coming from. The match pulled in about 10,000 more votes in the last 3-4 hours than it would have based on normal 2003 vote intake trends, and the reason people didn't notice it was so big at the time was that 40% of the extra votes went to Crono.

Granted, the male/female poll being responsible is not proven. But it does fit the data pretty well, and I don't know how else you could have rallied that many votes in 2003, especially for Crono. Another alternative is both sides were stuffing hard, and Mario stuffed more.
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Some of you guys in this topic are WAAAAAY over the top with your anger. I really hope it's just an act.

It's a poll on a video game website. Have fun. Aren't we all in our 30s anyway? I think there's better things to get mad about than one Nintendo icon beating out another with a nail biting finish.
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Link is flying now. I was actually a bit worried after the opening of the match. Hopefully he still clears 60%.
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As of 8:00 PM EST tonight:

Link has 55.27% with registered users and 64.14% with anonymous users. That's pretty damning evidence of a Zelda bandwagon, as you would expect anonymous users to be far less informed on contest developments such as Zelda's upset of Mario, so they wouldn't be likely to join in on any bandwagon.
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Seanchan posted...

Some of you guys in this topic are WAAAAAY over the top with your anger. I really hope it's just an act.

It's a poll on a video game website. Have fun. Aren't we all in our 30s anyway? I think there's better things to get mad about than one Nintendo icon beating out another with a nail biting finish.

I don't know about the others.

I don't care about the others.

Mine wasn't an act.

If you voted Mario you are probably evil, assuredly on the scum line, and specifically to those 3 I already named....

Mega
Ultra
Omega
FUCK
YOU!!!