Current Events > Could something like the Tunguska event happen again?

(+) Yeah! (+)

Assuming the main theory, that it was a gas filled asteroid that exploded in atmosphere, is true, what are the odds it could happen again? I can only imagine how catastrophic it would be if it happened now(though I suppose there are still plenty of areas it could happen with minimal damage or casualties).

It could happen at any moment

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Air burst asteroids are a pretty common event, as for something of that scale happening again? Maybe 1 in 2,000/per year.
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Probably about the same odds as there was when it happened last time.
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Aristoph posted...

Probably about the same odds as there was when it happened last time.

I would think it'd be significantly lower, or at least a lower chance of it being a surprise, with modern technology.

The better question to ask is how long until something like that happens again.
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OctilIery posted...

I would think it'd be significantly lower, or at least a lower chance of it being a surprise, with modern technology.

Whether or not it's a surprise is pretty much irrelevant currently. Without literal years of warning, we don't have any technology to effectively destroy or redirect an incoming asteroid of that size right now.

I guess at least you'd be able to say goodbye to your loved ones?
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Aristoph posted...

OctilIery posted...

I would think it'd be significantly lower, or at least a lower chance of it being a surprise, with modern technology.

Whether or not it's a surprise is pretty much irrelevant currently. Without literal years of warning, we don't have any technology to effectively destroy or redirect an incoming asteroid of that size right now.

I guess at least you'd be able to say goodbye to your loved ones?

Probably best we could hope for is enough time to evacuate if the area isn't too densely populated :/

metallica846 posted...

Lol current technology?

Israel can hit missiles out of the air, yes. Hell we probably gave them that tech.

These meteors are VERY big and moving VERY fast.

Yeah, I was thinking more on the logistics of detecting and predicting it than actually stopping or diverting it, lol.

That said, would we actually be able to detect that it's likely to explode in the air, or just that it's likely to impact the ground?

OctilIery posted...

That said, would we actually be able to detect that it's likely to explode in the air, or just that it's likely to impact the ground?

I suppose it would depend on a lot of factors. We can simulate things pretty well if we know what its general composition is. Whether or not we could determine that composition would vary wildly based on an untold number of variables. Of course the closer it got the more accurately we could figure that out, but it would also mean we'd have less time to do anything about it.
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OctilIery posted...

That said, would we actually be able to detect that it's likely to explode in the air, or just that it's likely to impact the ground?

If the cosmic rock's density, composition, trajectory, and velocity can be calculated, sure. A ball of ice and dust that comes at a very shallow angle will be shredded by aero- and thermodynamic forces during its decent, but a solid chunk of rock that falls literally vertically will create one heck of an explosion and a sizeable crater.
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OctilIery posted...

metallica846 posted...

Lol current technology?

Israel can hit missiles out of the air, yes. Hell we probably gave them that tech.

These meteors are VERY big and moving VERY fast.

Yeah, I was thinking more on the logistics of detecting and predicting it than actually stopping or diverting it, lol.

That said, would we actually be able to detect that it's likely to explode in the air, or just that it's likely to impact the ground?

I mean we've literally done successful calculations to send things to land on meteors months later, so we'd probably be able to calculate the likelihood of where it would be headed towards.
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gunplagirl posted...

I mean we've literally done successful calculations to send things to land on meteors months later, so we'd probably be able to calculate the likelihood of where it would be headed towards.

Oh we absolutely could, I was questioning whether we'd be able to determine what it was made of so we could determine if it would explode like the Tunguska one.

Although that also makes me question the likelihood that a ground impact would be serious enough to call for evacuation, but not so serious to threaten outside the evacuated area. IDK how much they'd break up in the atmosphere.

Aristoph posted...

I suppose it would depend on a lot of factors. We can simulate things pretty well if we know what its general composition is. Whether or not we could determine that composition would vary wildly based on an untold number of variables. Of course the closer it got the more accurately we could figure that out, but it would also mean we'd have less time to do anything about it.

Interesting. Science is cool, even if this particular application isn't all that practical >.>;