Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 247: Election Night 2019!

(+) Yeah! (+)

I think Trump will draw the lesson from this that he needs to be personally on the ballot.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1191921175775137793

what the fuck

republicans trying underhanded shit in an attempt to subvert the will of the people?

well i never
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1191922794495381505

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We should all be thankful Al Gore did not abuse his power as President of the Senate to get himself elected President during the counting of the electoral votes in Congress.
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You see, the Electoral College elects the President, but Congress counts the votes!
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You know, now it makes so much sense why Republicans are running on this "DEMOCRATS WANT TO UNDERMINE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE" stuff. It's cause that's EXACTLY what they want to do. Party of projection strikes again!
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4000 votes is probably too many to overcome in a recount. The machines are not going to be off by that much.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1191937709364928513

LMAO

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Imagine being the literal president of the United States and still feeling so insecure that you feel the need to be validated for every single thing you say or do.
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1191958126263721985

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Reg posted...

Prop 2 (Allowing the Texas Water Development Board to issue bonds) is passing by a very wide margin (about 85% yes votes)

Intriguingly, this prop had a roughly 20% swing towards no as more votes were counted overnight (Still passed by almost a 2-1 margin). I have no idea where early votes were counted/the later votes were from, sadly.

Reg posted...

Prop 9 (Exempting precious metals held in Precious Metal Depositories from property taxes) is currently showing a roughly 54/46 margin, which is close enough that it is not totally inconceivable that it could flip or become very close. Information I can find suggests that this tax is not currently enforced/collected even without this amendment.

Similarly, this one lost a few percentage points, and is sitting at 51.71 for-48.29 against with 99% reporting. There are just shy of 1.7 million votes counted, and only about a 58k vote difference.

Reg posted...

Prop 10 (Allowing transfer of law enforcement animals to their handler or another qualified caretaker. Current law considers them surplus state property and requires them to be auctioned or donated) is passing by a more than 9-1 margin.

This margin actually got wider overnight and is currently sitting at roughly 94/6.

None of the others changed significantly/are worth noting.

Man I cant get over how Trump is literally having people at his rallies wear read the transcript shirts when the call summary was damning enough to launch a fucking impeachment investigation

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GildedFool posted...

Ulti, your tweet doesn't prove you were there.

You do know that right?

Like, you probably were. But... it doesn't prove shit.

Imagine being this ignorant.

https://twitter.com/ultimaterializr/status/1192060599481573377?s=21

Taken the day of from inside the Park MGM, just to make sure people like you look extra dumb on this one.

Bro in the middle looking totally fab af btw.

@Drakeryn
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https://twitter.com/NeoNighthawk/status/1191944909177139200

Wow, the groypers have really improved their efficiency! It no longer takes five words, now you can get censored/deplatformed from establishmentcon events by bringing up a single date in US history!
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WTF is a groyper? Did you guys invent a new slur?
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Jakyl25 posted...

WTF is a groyper? Did you guys invent a new slur?

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/groyper

It's as dumb as I imagined.
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https://twitter.com/adamserwer/status/1192036169195958272?s=21

Must be nice to believe that you need outside help from Donald Trump for the GOP to win in MISSISSIPPI
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Jakyl25 posted...

WTF is a groyper? Did you guys invent a new slur?

its like extra racist Pepe cartoons but now also I guess these guys are calling themselves it too? theyre dudes who are somehow too shitty for already very shitty people like Charlie Kirk to associate with
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I have a hard time believing there are people shittier than Charlie Kirk
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Jakyl25 posted...

I have a hard time believing there are people shittier than Charlie Kirk

and yet here we are

this Fuentes kid is organizing his strange little mob against Charlie because Charlie didnt want him at some convention because Fuentes is a little too blatantly white nationalist or something ( I dont remember exactly, its all so fucking dumb)
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One of my favorite things is the weird tension between the openly bigoted alt-right and the new right which is still just as bigoted but wants to be sly about it to be more effective
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Well my high school friend got bodied last night, but I think thats probably the best outcome. The incumbent has made some unpopular calls during her tenure but she is highly competent at governing. Now he has experience running for office and he can go to grad school with it.
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Jakyl25 posted...

I have a hard time believing there are people shittier than Charlie Kirk

Mitch McConnell exists, so it's not that hard believing it.
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MoogleKupo141 posted...

its like extra racist Pepe cartoons but now also I guess these guys are calling themselves it too? theyre dudes who are somehow too shitty for already very shitty people like Charlie Kirk to associate with

The worst person I know started following some of these fuckers recently

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Second consecutive poll I've seen with Biden in fourth in Iowa:

https://poll.qu.edu/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=3647

(Again, MoE makes this close to a four way tie)
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Yeah Iowa and New Hampshire dont look great for Joe. Hell very likely win SC and is currently ahead in Nevada, though.

Very fortunate for Warren/Bernie/Pete that the first two states are extremely white!

edit: lost a dont while rewriting that sentence; whoops!

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Alex Jones has now unleashed his followers on one of Roger Stones jurors:

https://twitter.com/timothywjohnson/status/1192134714292920322?s=21

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And on the same vein, Don Jr. has now tweeted out a brietbart article that identifies somebody as the alleged whistleblower:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1192101275753701377?s=21

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Yeah Iowa and New Hampshire dont look great for Joe. Hell very likely win SC and is currently ahead in Nevada, though.

Very fortunate for Warren/Bernie/Pete that the first two states are extremely white!

edit: lost a dont while rewriting that sentence; whoops!

He's going to win SC by a lot, yeah. Essentially any liberal/moderate state that has a higher percentage of white voters he's going to struggle in. His core base is absolutely black voters and older moderate democrats so I expect him to clean up in the south and states like WV, Wyoming, etc. I think those first two states are going to be really important to the "not Joe Biden" candidate, whoever that winds up being, and I feel like if someone can sweep the first two states they have a decent chance against Biden.
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I wonder if it worries anyone that Biden's best states appear to be states that he has 0 chance to win in the general.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I wonder if it worries anyone that Biden's best states appear to be states that he has 0 chance to win in the general.

Well a large part of the reason hes doing way better in those states is that they have a lot higher minority populations than Iowa/NH, which will be important in several swing states. I dont know if there are that many state specific general election polls that have been conducted, but the much highlighted NYT one from a few days ago had Biden outperforming Warren in all and Sanders in most of the six swing states they polled.

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The gop are domestic terrorists who are anti-law, pass it on
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I wonder if anyone worries that Bernie and Warren do not appeal to the Democratic base (black voters, moderates, conservatives) in the slightest.
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Can someone who knows the numbers tell me how many delegates Biden would be ahead assuming no one wins a plurality in IA and NH, but Biden destroys in SC?
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

I wonder if anyone worries that Bernie and Warren do not appeal to the Democratic base (black voters, moderates, conservatives) in the slightest.

Why would they worry? Who are the Democratic base going to vote for instead? Trump?
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red sox 777 posted...

Nelson_Mandela posted...

I wonder if anyone worries that Bernie and Warren do not appeal to the Democratic base (black voters, moderates, conservatives) in the slightest.

Why would they worry? Who are the Democratic base going to vote for instead? Trump?

They would vote for no one.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Can someone who knows the numbers tell me how many delegates Biden would be ahead assuming no one wins a plurality in IA and NH, but Biden destroys in SC?

Given the Dems use proportional rather than winner take all, a lot. Because he'll get credit for his big margin in SC while the winner of IA and NH won't get much out of a small win.
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LordoftheMorons posted...

Well a large part of the reason hes doing way better in those states is that they have a lot higher minority populations than Iowa/NH, which will be important in several swing states. I dont know if there are that many state specific general election polls that have been conducted, but the much highlighted NYT one from a few days ago had Biden outperforming Warren in all and Sanders in most of the six swing states they polled.

Well speaking of this, there was another poll in this vein.

https://twitter.com/AJentleson/status/1191823191825690626?s=19

I dunno, I don't really think there's any sure conclusion yet but it looks to me like these are tossups and every lead candidate (including Trump) is competitive in the battleground states.

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I wonder if it worries anyone that Biden's best states appear to be states that he has 0 chance to win in the general.

It's only worrisome if he does badly in the three key states we need to flip: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Not a fan of Biden at all, though. Like if he's the candidate I'll vote for him -- but it's more a vote against Trump than a vote for him. And I voted FOR Hillary. That's what worries me. I had no problems voting FOR Hillary. What are the people who couldn't vote for her going to do? I mean we can all hope they'll come out this time because we KNOW how bad Trump is, but counting on that seems like a bad idea.
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https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/11/manchin-tester-vow-theyll-never-nuke-the-legislative-filibuster/

Hey guys, your court-packing fantasy is dead. As is M4A.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

I wonder if it worries anyone that Biden's best states appear to be states that he has 0 chance to win in the general.

It worked out well for Hillary in 2016 oh wait

But yeah, it is going to come down really to who performs best in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania out of those three that is truly the "most electable".
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I think this focus on only Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania is a mistake. Those were the key states in 2016, but that doesn't necessarily imply they will be the key states in 2020. In 2016, a big mistake by the Hillary campaign was to focus her campaign's attention on the states that were the closest in 2012. So her campaign put a lot of resources into Ohio and North Carolina, but the reality was that if those states were close Hillary was almost guaranteed a win nationally. They were close in 2012 and Obama won big.
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Nelson_Mandela posted...

Can someone who knows the numbers tell me how many delegates Biden would be ahead assuming no one wins a plurality in IA and NH, but Biden destroys in SC?

The polling for Iowa is close to a tie, but lets say best case scenario (for now) is either Warren or Bernie gets two more delegates than Biden (if we have a 20-19-18-17 scenario that is sort of likely as Iowa has 41 delegates that will be assigned proportionally so there aren't that many extra delegates to pick up if it is even semi-close).

New Hampshire is even worse as there are only 24 delegates. Warren currents has 25% as the rcp average while Biden has 21%. So again, if we want to be generous we can say she gets another +2 compared to Biden.

So she's maybe +4 over Biden if we go with your assumption that it is relatively close between the two states.

South Carolina gets 54 delegates. Interesting thing about SC is there isn't enough polling yet, but Biden has been polling around 35-40% while the only one that cracks 15% is Warren at around 15.5% (rcp polling average). Now, you need at least 15% to get delegates so there is a nightmare scenario where Biden gets 100% of the delegates there and winds up way ahead of everyone else. I would think by that time that either Warren/Sanders can get above 15% hopefully but who knows. So if Biden completely destroys SC (I'd say not likely but again, nightmare scenario), he could be up +50 over Warren assuming he keeps the first two states close. If Warren (or Sanders) does get to say 20% or so while Biden gets 40% (much more likely) and no other candidate gets to 15%, then Biden would get 2:1 allocation of delegates there. So 36 - 18. So he'd be +18 and around +14 after the first three states. If both Sanders and Warren got around 15% or so and Biden gets 40%, then it'd be around the same. Biden would get around 30, both of the others would get 12, and Biden would still come out +18.

Again these are rough averages. But using your guess of close in NH/Iowa and Biden runs up the score in SC, you'd get -

Nightmare scenario - Biden up +50
More realistic scenario (assuming your guesses are correct) - Biden +14

Basically we just need either Sanders or Warren to put up at least 15 percent and they are still in really good shape. Just need them to do well enough that Biden doesn't wind up gobbling up all those delegates because that would be incredibly rough.
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+1 that post
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In the last 10 polls of SC, Warren gets over 15% 6/10 times. Bernie does 1/10. I do think that after Iowa/NH there will be some consolidation between those two (especially if Warren does worse than expected) so it isn't a huge concern. But there could be some weird scenario where those two split the first two states and then the field is still big enough that Biden is the only one cracking 15% and then we have a real problem.
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Looking into this a bit more, there are roughly 7 delegate rich states that Biden has the potential to run up obscene numbers on depending on the size of the field.

Alabama
Mississippi
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Arkansas
Florida

These are all states that Hillary but 65%+ on Sanders when it was just a choice between the two.
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Biden wins most elder whites, almost all elderly minority voters
Warren wins white liberals, "Liberal elites"
Bernie wins youth, working class/union voters
Buttigieg wins rich whites, moderates

There's obviously a smattering of overlap, but each candidate is winning the majority of their "base".

EDIT: For Pete, divide everything by 75, he's getting a smattering total, and it's absolutely nuts he thinks it's "Me vs Warren".

Match this up against the demos of the states, and I'm guessing you have the 2020 primary results.

Thoughts?

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Hm more not great news:

Alabama - March 3 (only four primaries before it)
Mississippi - March 10 (next big group of states after Super Tuesday)
South Carolina - February 29
Georgia - March 24
Tennessee - March 3
Arkansas - March 3
Florida - March 17

That is a very front loaded favorable schedule for Biden.
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If Warren is winning liberal elites, it seems like her messaging is failing pretty hard.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Biden wins most elder whites, almost all elderly minority voters
Warren wins white liberals, "Liberal elites"
Bernie wins youth, working class/union voters
Buttigieg wins rich whites, moderates

There's obviously a smattering of overlap, but each candidate is winning the majority of their "base".

EDIT: For Pete, divide everything by 75, he's getting a smattering total, and it's absolutely nuts he thinks it's "Me vs Warren".

Match this up against the demos of the states, and I'm guessing you have the 2020 primary results.

Thoughts?

I think that's fairly representative, although Biden gets most middle age black voters as well.

I also think there will be some melding between Bernie and Warren after Super Tuesday at the latest, hopefully. And yeah Mayor Pete's six delegates won't matter that much but just so he feels good we can throw him in there too!
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