Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 247: Election Night 2019!

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://twitter.com/juliadavisnews/status/1193658272202534921?s=21

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Boliva just had an actual coup, and strangely I dont think President Trump will think its a problem.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Hope nobody lets Nikki Haley rebuild her career post-Trump, pretending that she wasn't an active participant:
https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/1193575147065741313

I literally got an invite from a guy I know to go listen to Haley speak at a local university later this month.

Needless to say, I am not attending that.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Boliva just had an actual coup, and strangely I dont think President Trump will think its a problem.

I mean by all accounts Morales rigged the election so I don't know if that counts as a coup
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People in Bolivia protested because of serious irregularities. Their president steps down voluntarily and they're holding another election.

That's the tamest coup I've ever heard of.
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Boliva just had an actual coup, and strangely I dont think President Trump will think its a problem.

No they didnt

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Had a great time at the Mises Institute event in South Texas this week. Once again was able to snag an invite to the supporters dinner at Ron Paul's house, which is always cool.

Although when we were hanging out on the patio, the first dude to walk over and talk to us was an Infowars reporter. Not to be outdone, the next guy to join is was a conservative talk radio guy whose main shtick is that all of human society is organized around the principle of literal human sacrifice. Good stuff.
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Is there any basis for these coup allegations in Bolivia? Seems like they are going to hold new elections since there was fraud in the ones that happened.
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red sox 777 posted...

Is there any basis for these coup allegations in Bolivia? Seems like they are going to hold new elections since there was fraud in the ones that happened.

As far as I can tell the coup allegation originated from Telesur (Venezuelan state propaganda)

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LordoftheMorons posted...

red sox 777 posted...

Is there any basis for these coup allegations in Bolivia? Seems like they are going to hold new elections since there was fraud in the ones that happened.

As far as I can tell the coup allegation originated from Telesur (Venezuelan state propaganda)

Lmfao so Tony fell for literal half-assed Venezuelan propaganda
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Vindman is being removed from his NSC post:

https://twitter.com/nicolledwallace/status/1193708763716435969?s=21

Very hard to buy that this isnt retaliation. If it is, add another impeachment charge.

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The head of the Bolivian military literally went on TV and called for the President to quit.

Sure, it wasnt exactly violent, but youre arguing semantics if you say that isnt a coup.

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I don't have a strongest grasp on the events going on there, but from the little bit I've read it goes something like:

Morales would have been term-limited but put the removal of term limits on the ballot a few years ago. It lost the referendum, so he took it to the courts (which were friendly to him) and had term limits tossed out anyway, allowing him to run this time at all.

Then when the vote count was being reported as it was coming in was showing a close race and likely heading to a second round of voting. Then all of a sudden the public reporting of the count stopped at like 80% in for a full day and protests started. When the count resumed, it abruptly started coming in more in favor of Morales than before, enough so to prevent a second round of voting.

like the whole thing is shady af as far as i can tell
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1193615188311912449

"No, it is much stronger than that"

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Deleted my previous post; looks like Vindman still has his job for the moment:
https://twitter.com/PaulaReidCBS/status/1193720525635379209

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xp1337 posted...

I don't have a strongest grasp on the events going on there, but from the little bit I've read it goes something like:

Morales would have been term-limited but put the removal of term limits on the ballot a few years ago. It lost the referendum, so he took it to the courts (which were friendly to him) and had term limits tossed out anyway, allowing him to run this time at all.

Then when the vote count was being reported as it was coming in was showing a close race and likely heading to a second round of voting. Then all of a sudden the public reporting of the count stopped at like 80% in for a full day and protests started. When the count resumed, it abruptly started coming in more in favor of Morales than before, enough so to prevent a second round of voting.

like the whole thing is shady af as far as i can tell

https://www.npr.org/2019/11/10/778042181/bolivian-president-evo-morales-calls-for-new-elections-amid-protests

It would be like if Putin was forced to resigned after his sham election and people went "guys they just overthrew the democratically elected president of Russia!"

This is getting some play on far left news outlets (and interesting enough places like rt or Chinese nationalist propaganda sites).
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The head of the Bolivian military literally went on TV and called for the President to quit.

Sure, it wasnt exactly violent, but youre arguing semantics if you say that isnt a coup.

Ok but that's not exactly a bad thing
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If anyone thinks this is truly a case of "protecting democracy", then congrats, I have a "most gullible buffoon ever" trophy for you

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I mean, if a president launches a coup against a democracy by committing electoral fraud, the military telling him to stand down is not really a coup.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

It would be like if Putin was forced to resigned after his sham election and people went "guys they just overthrew the democratically elected president of Russia!"

...Why did you just compare him to Putin?

From everything I read, hes never done anything violent towards his people, the country has a falling poverty rate and better economy than any other countries in the region, and both Reuters and NBC reported that after the election he invited the UN to come inspect the results of the election, but the other heads of parties in his country refused the deal.


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red sox 777 posted...

I mean, if a president launches a coup against a democracy by committing electoral fraud, the military telling him to stand down is not really a coup.

wow so good of the military to care so much about democracy. surely that's all they care about and there is no other reason they're ousting the president

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LordoftheMorons posted...

As far as I can tell the coup allegation originated from Telesur (Venezuelan state propaganda)

also for the record, the President himself said this as reported by multiple international outlets, so Im not sure how or why this post was made.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

It would be like if Putin was forced to resigned after his sham election and people went "guys they just overthrew the democratically elected president of Russia!"

...Why did you just compare him to Putin?

From everything I read, hes never done anything violent towards his people, the country has a falling poverty rate and better economy than any other countries in the region, and both Reuters and NBC reported that after the election he invited the UN to come inspect the results of the election, but the other heads of parties in his country refused the deal.

The comparison wasn't meant to be in terms of acts of Putin himself, but rather the legitimacy of the elections and their attempts to cling to power. Russia was just the first sham democracy that jumped to mind.
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Morales called for a new election to be held. The opposition refused.

Who is being undemocratic here?

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It is always a very good sign when someone outlasts their constitutional term limits, they try to hold a referendum to have those term limits abolished (which fails), then they go around the will of the voters to force themselves on the ballot anyway.
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So a US-installed unelected stooge is better?

This is a case of cutting off your nose to spite your face

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The OAS was the one that reported voting irregularities and released a report with pages of data to corroborate this.

I do not want a US installed stooge, but I also don't want someone that is threatening his country's democracy by:
1) ignoring constitutional mandates
2) ignoring voting referendums
3) rigging the vote
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Like it or not, Morales did nothing illegal. The constitution was amended and the supreme court upheld it.

And there was no fraud either. Election "irregularities" were caused by geographical factors

http://cepr.net/press-center/press-releases/oas-should-retract-its-press-release-on-bolivian-election-cepr-co-director-says

Imagine calling the election for Hillary before votes from the south were tallied

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Hint: if this was for the movement and not personal power, Evo would've found someone within his own party to continue his work rather than marching through with 1 & 2. Why didn't Obama attempt to change the constitution rather that allowing the party to nominate his successor when he was more popular than anyone they had waiting in the wings?

I'm not even saying what Evo did was bad when he was in power because it wasn't. But you can't just handwave a series of worrying acts on his part because he's doing things you like.
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Suprak the Stud posted...

It is always a very good sign when someone outlasts their constitutional term limits, they try to hold a referendum to have those term limits abolished (which fails), then they go around the will of the voters to force themselves on the ballot anyway.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-20/bolivia-heads-to-polls-in-test-of-evo-morales-popularity

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/indepth/features/bolivia-election-evo-morales-win-controversial-4th-term-191016172205404.html

Sorry for the crappy links, but feel free to doublecheck yourself (I searched evo morales popularity).

The term limits vote may have gone against him, but the courts ruled in his favor, and then he won this election by results comparable to polls before, so Id really be interested to read more about these voting irregularities?

Also, he publicly offered outside forces to analyze the results AND offered a brand new election.

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DeepsPraw posted...

If anyone thinks this is truly a case of "protecting democracy", then congrats, I have a "most gullible buffoon ever" trophy for you

Right, like every person is like "well I know nothing about the situation but here is whats definitely happening!"
You'd think at some point people might question why every single left wing person who achieves power is always illegitimate, a dictator, etc. and all the coups against them are completely organic and not plots by intelligence agencies that have openly and constantly pulled the exact same moves over and over throughout history. No, surely the US is concerned about fair elections and democracy, thats why we love Saudi Arabia, the monarchist dictatorship that openly murders journalists and is doing a genocide in Yemen. The same agencies who openly say that their mission is to oppose socialism throughout the world would definitely never lie about a socialist regime in order to implement a regime change!

Morales has significantly improved the lot in life for the people in Bolivia, massively reducing poverty transforming the country. The same exact coup scenario would have happened in Venezuela as well, were the top military officials not all Chavistas. I suspect that unless the socialists manage to win these (definitely fair this time) elections coming up, Bolivia is going to lose decades of progress and become yet another right wing puppet for pillaging the global south.

But in case anyone still doubts the fact that this is a completely not organic coup and was organized by the US, luckily...there are tons of audio recordings showing that it was.
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Bolivia-Audios-Linking-Civic-Ex-Military-and-US-in-Coup-Plans-20191105-0001.html
this article doesn't really go in depth into the content of the recordings, but this one does
http://www.erbol.com.bo/nacional/surgen-16-audios-que-vinculan-c%C3%ADvicos-exmilitares-y-eeuu-en-planes-de-agitaci%C3%B3n
its in spanish, however, and too long for me to post the translations because of character limit.

The OAS is a multinational, continental group of nations that include almost every Latin American nation and are currently lead by members from Uruguay and Belize.

CEPR is a US based think tank that pushes only progressive policies (which is good but I don't think they are an unbiased source for information on these topics).

CEPR has published at length about Venezuela and has been described as supporting Hugo Chvez and the Venezuelan government[15][16][17] with some of the data presented by CEPR along with Weisbrot being accused of using slanted information to support the Venezuelan government.[18][19][20][21] Staff members such as Mark Weisbrot, CEPR's founder, and Deborah James, the former director of the Venezuelan government's Venezuela Information Office, have attended pro-Venezuelan government events alongside other activists such as Daniel Kovalik.[22][23][24][25][26] Venezuelanalysis.com, a pro-Bolivarian website, has also used CEPR as their only source of economic indicators for their website since 2007.[27][28]

If anyone is a US based group meddling in South American, it is CEPR, not OAS.
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Inb4 someone comes in with a quip about conspiracy theories without addressing the fact that Morales rigging the vote is literally a conspiracy theory

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Audio 1. Illustrates the commitment of US senators such as Marco Rubio, Bob Menndez and Ted Cruz in the coup plan against Evo Morales.
Audio 2. A member of the Bolivian opposition and alleged former military man calls for an armed uprising.
Audio 3. A member of the Bolivian opposition (still to be identified) proposes to point out the houses of supporters of the president's political party, to instill fear in the population and influence them later to support the coup.
Audio 4. A member of the Bolivian opposition (still to be identified), raises the strategy to be followed by the Bolivian opposition, establishing itself as a premise that invalidates the elections of October 20, generates a military-civil uprising and creates a national strike. In addition, he commented that there are active members of the National Armed Forces and the Police that would support these actions.
Audio 5. A conversation between members of the Bolivian opposition that shows the participation of Manfred Reyes Villa, another member of the opposition residing in the United States, who has coup plans. The support that the opposition is obtaining from the Evangelical Church and the Brazilian government is mentioned. The reference on an alleged man of confidence for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who also advises a Bolivian presidential candidate who has not yet been identified, stands out.
Audio 6. Shows the participation of Manfred Reyes Villa, an opposition member with coup plans. The voice of Bolivian political activist Mauricio Muoz y Reyes can be heard on the recording.
Audio 7. A former Bolivian colonel confirms the coup d'etat plans against President Evo Morales, and expresses his concern about the participation of civic committee leaders in the opposition-related army.
Audio 8. Former Bolivian colonel Julio Csar Maldonado Leoni, president of the National Military Committee, gives orders to implement all kinds of actions against the Cuban Embassy and its diplomats, instilling fear and hatred towards Cubans to leave the country.
Audio 9. This audio is related to a meeting between former Bolivian military held in the city of Cochabamba. Former Colonel Julio Csar Maldonado Leoni, president of the National Military Committee, refers to the creation of a political-military power.
Audio 10. Former Bolivian colonel Teobaldo Cardoso says that everything is ready and that they are a large group of old and active military members ready to wage war.
Audio 11. Illustrates the commitment of politician and opposition member Manfred Reyes Villa, with plans to overthrow the president. The voice of Manfred Reyes is heard in a conversation with political activist and opposition member Miriam Pereira and journalists Carlos and Chanet Blacut.
Audio 12. The voice of former army general Remberto Siles, who refers to the existence of a great plan against the Bolivian government, is heard.
Audio 13. Strategy and actions of the La Paz Civic Committee, in the context of the National Strike on August 21. You can hear the voice of its president, politician Jaime Antonio Alarcn Daza.
Audio 14. You can hear the voice of former Colonel Oscar Pacello Aguirre, Representative of the National Military Coordinator. He mentions a secret plan against the government of President Evo Morales and the actions planned for October 10.
Audio 15. Private meeting between the opponent Jaime Antonio Alarcn Daza, Ivn Arias and other members of the civic committees, in which the agreement consisted of obtaining rapid voting equipment for the next presidential elections, in order to use them to manipulate public opinion on the election results.
Audio 16. Political activist Miriam Pereira links the opposition member and US resident Carlos Snchez Berzain with the plan to overthrow President Morales. She comments that Sanchez wants to incite a civil war in Bolivia and that they have a half-million dollar financing.

translations

always funny that liberals hold leftist politicians to an unreasonably high standard but give conservatives a pass to lie cheat and steal as much as they want

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Suprak the Stud posted...

The OAS is a multinational, continental group of nations that include almost every Latin American nation and are currently lead by members from Uruguay and Belize.

CEPR is a US based think tank that pushes only progressive policies (which is good but I don't think they are an unbiased source for information on these topics).

If anyone is a US based group meddling in South American, it is CEPR, not OAS.

https://thegrayzone.com/2018/06/01/oas-anti-venezuela-pro-us-bias-right-wing-hypocrisy/

please read up about the OAS

DeepsPraw posted...

always funny that liberals hold leftist politicians to an unreasonably high standard but give conservatives a pass to lie cheat and steal as much as they want

Literally what the fuck are you talking about

"Don't rig elections" is an "impossibly high standard"? and where the fuck are we "giv[ing] conservatives a pass to lie cheat and steal as much as they want"?

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Inb4 someone comes in with a quip about conspiracy theories without addressing the fact that Morales rigging the vote is literally a conspiracy theory

How is an OAS audit result "literally a conspiracy theory"?

From wapo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/bolivia-to-hold-new-elections-after-protests-and-international-criticism/ 2019/11/10/4778e842-03b2-11ea-ac12-3325d49eacaa_story.html (space added because wapo links are too fucking long)

Yet his strongest blow came from outside Bolivia in the form of the OAS audit, which Morales and his Movement for Socialism had pledged to honor. In its preliminary report, the organization said the manipulations to the computer system are of such magnitude that they must be deeply investigated by the Bolivian state to get to the bottom of and assign responsibility in this serious case.

OAS auditors said the voting transmission system was not 100% monitored or under the control of the appropriate technician. Information was at one point redirected, and thus it is not possible to have certainty about the . . . results.

The OAS also said that good practices were not applied to the official vote-counting because the system permitted someone to take control of parts of the process that were supposed to be secure. The integrity of the software was not respected, auditors said; at one point, they said, the system was frozen and fixed in a manner that violated the essential principles of security.

The OAS concluded that 78 of 333 evaluated vote counts from polling stations showed irregularities and manipulation. The last 5 percent of the vote counting was especially unusual, auditors said, in that it showed a significant increase for Morales and a sharp decrease for Mesa.

In some cases we verified that all the ballots at one [polling station] had been completed by the same person, the OAS wrote. In some cases we confirmed that person was a representative of [Moraless Movement for Socialism]. . . . We found, also, many ballots in which the ruling party obtained a 100% of the votes.

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https://thegrayzone.com/2018/06/01/oas-anti-venezuela-pro-us-bias-right-wing-hypocrisy/

please read up about the OAS

I dont know if the new system will let me snip Cyclos name and allow you to see his quote, but here.

Like I said above, Morales said he wanted multiple outside groups, including the UN to analyze the vote themselves, AND offered another election in the meantime, and it was refused.

What kind of guy rigs the vote, offers outsiders the chance to check it, AND says well do another vote too?

Be honest, is the US meddling in left-wing South American governments unprecedented?

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That looks like an extremely biased site itself

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Is there a reason you think OAS should be trusted without verification from the UN or another 3rd party?

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I'm sure most people attended high school history class and learned about the Monroe Doctrine, literally the US policy for South America has been for hundreds of years that "this is our zone to control, we have unilateral hegemony here", its indisputable.

I'm fine with another neutral party looking at it, but if you ask me who I think is more likely to be telling the truth about a potential rigged election it's not gonna be the guy who abolished term limits for himself

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Another thing I think that has been lost in all of this is that Morales was absolutely always going to win the election. That is why they won't agree to run the election again with the UN observers and allowing Morales to run again - he would win. The issue is whether or not there were irregularities that led to them having no need for a second round election, as per the Bolivian system of elections, a winner can be declared if you have 50%, or if you have 40%+ and are at least 10% ahead of the next highest opponent. This is all an argument over whether or not Morales won almost half of the votes cast by more than 10% over the next guy, or slightly less than 10% over the next guy. Why would Morales risk illegitimacy and outside intervention when he was almost guaranteed to win the next round? This is entirely drummed up.

edit: twitter.com/kevinmcashman/status/1193703918624108544 this is a pretty good explanation of the CEPR report in regards to the geographical factors not being irregularities.

Yeah I mean I shared articles above from Bloomberg and Al Jazeera, and both show polls predicting what he got. On the second one, he actually did worse than one of the Spanish-language opinion polls linked to in the article!

You think it logically tracks that he rigged an election he was favorited to win and still managed to come in under the polls? He won his last election with 61% and the results were uncontested, but this time he figured a rigging up to 47% was necessary?

This is like Hillary got so many votes in CA because she rigged the vote levels of lack of critical thought.

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Uh the poll you're citing (from almost a month ago) gave him 40%, which is the lowest he could afford to get to afford a runoff and significantly less than 47%. Furthermore, the 2% MoE is just the statistical error; I don't know how good polling is of Bolivia but I'd guess worse than in the US (and likely with overall less polling to get a good average). The race can also change a lot in a month. In any case, that polling would not have instilled a ton of confidence in Morales that he was guaranteed to win.

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I was specifying the second one, but maybe I linked the wrong one because he was at 49%.

But even using that first one, it has him up 18% and he won by 20%. Thats exactly within the polling.

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Tony, you are literally following the same playbook as a Republican calling impeachment proceedings a coup. You are grasping onto any piece of information you see, regardless of its potential bias or even validity, that sounds favorable to you because the guy in question is in a party you like.
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Well hey at least we're talking about Bolivia now
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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-jr-book- triggered-ucla-tpusa-video-q-a-america-first-maga-groyper-zoomer-a9197926.html

Had to add a space so the URL would fit.

SmartMuffins groypers are at it again. Cant say I disapprove of their targets at least.

Junior was kind of asking for it by preaching to question authority and then not allowing any questions

Youre not making your parents proud by being rude and disruptive and discourteous, Ms Guilfoyle told the protesters. I bet you engage and go on online dating because youre impressing no one here to get a date in person.

Sick burn boomer
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