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LeonhartFour 02/29/20 11:57:51 PM #52: |
Yeah, I think they could've mixed things up a bit more. We'll probably see some surprises since we know so little, but I don't think there will be some underdog that makes a deep run this year.
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 12:23:46 AM #53: |
and this poll is why you should worry about P4G a bit...!
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Yuri_LowelI 03/01/20 12:35:02 AM #54: |
SwiftyDC posted...
I want Berseria to beat FFXV so bad. its a shame FFXV is in that division. I wanted it to be in Persona 5s division badly just so i can see it being demolished by a rival franchise. beseria too weak. Vesperia has better chance but thats 2008 game --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Yuri_LowelI 03/01/20 12:35:34 AM #55: |
LeonhartFour posted...
and this poll is why you should worry about P4G a bit...! its going to clean that division baffling as to why atlus didnt port this to switch --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 1:37:45 AM #56: |
Division 6
(1) Persona 5 (16) Heavy Rain (8) Assassin's Creed IV: Black Flag (9) Sid Meier's Civilization V https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6953-best-of-2017-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6945-best-of-2017-playstation-4 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4208-best-of-2010-best-playstation-3-exclusive https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4217-best-of-2010-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5375-best-of-2013-playstation-3 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6094-best-game-ever-day-11-dark-souls-vs-civilization-v https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4207-best-of-2010-best-pc-exclusive Persona 5 is a pretty big favorite in this division and deservedly so. Avoiding being doubled by presumptive favorite Breath of the Wild in the 2017 GOTY poll is way better than anyone should've expected considering Persona 4 got 35% on Twilight Princess, which is probably a weaker game. I think this division is tailor-made for it to blast through and look good doing it. Heavy Rain might get some joke votes, but people stopped caring about that game a long time ago. ACIV vs. Civ V is a tougher call. Assassin's Creed's peak is way higher than Civ's ever was, but has it bottomed out at this point? I do hear a good bit of praise for Black Flag from people who've actually stuck with the series, and Civilization has literally never won a contest match of any kind. I'm siding with ACIV because it's more well known and it's a higher seed, which means probably brackets in its favor. Prediction: Persona 5 > Assassin's Creed IV (5) Sonic Mania (12) Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of DANA (4) Super Meat Boy (13) Slay the Spire https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6760-which-scheduled-summer-release-are-you-most-looking-forward https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6791-which-scheduled-august-release-are-you-most-looking-forward https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6822-which-scheduled-september-release-are-you-most-looking https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4212-best-of-2010-best-multi-platform-game-day-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4214-best-of-2010-best-indie-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5194-character-battle-ix-division-6-round-1-lee-vs-meat-boy-vs-mr https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7834-best-of-2019-indies You can actually do some extrapolation with Sonic Mania and Ys VIII based on those polls since Danganronpa V3 is in both of them...! Sonic Mania projected out to 58.15% and Ys VIII projected out to 54.10%, meaning Sonic Mania should win with 54.41%! Seriously though, Sonic Mania probably wins this fourpack on name recognition alone. Plus, it was well liked and critically acclaimed, a rarity for a Sonic game this decade! Ys VIII is just too niche. Meat Boy was in CBIX and honestly didn't do that badly, all things considered. He stood out like crazy in that match picture though, and he has a cool design, to boot. As far as indie games go, Super Meat Boy is one of the most well known. It shouldn't have any trouble with Slay the Spire, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it gave Sonic Mania all it could handle. It's not a bad upset pick if you're looking for one. However, since I am a big fan of Sonic Mania [insert shameless plug about my top 100 games topic here], I will stick with it. Prediction: Sonic Mania > Super Meat Boy (3) Portal 2 (14) Tomb Raider (6) Kingdom Hearts III (11) Disco Elysium https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7514-whats-your-all-time-favorite-2-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6069-best-game-ever-day-5-portal-2-vs-sonic-the-hedgehog-2 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4589-best-of-2011-best-multi-platform-game-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5378-best-of-2013-xbox-360 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7550-with-three-months-gone-what-is-your-pick-for-the-best-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7832-best-of-2019-pc https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7838-best-of-2019-game-of-the-year This fourpack is an interesting test case. Portal 2 was quite popular when it came out, and it did really well in 2015 against a '90s game when '90s games were destroying everything (even if Sonic does tend to underperform relative to expectations). However, this game is a decade old now, and everyone knows there will be no more Portal games. Is this the type of game that stands the test of time? On the other hand, you have Kingdom Hearts III, a game people waited 13 years for and were ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Safer_777 03/01/20 4:28:43 AM #57: |
Portal 2? A PC game doing that good? I don't know. Maybe I guess?
--- So why we exist? What happens when we stop existing? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 9:26:29 AM #58: |
Safer_777 posted...
Portal 2? A PC game doing that good? I don't know. Maybe I guess? I mean, the first Portal did really well in the first GOTD! --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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linid0t 03/01/20 9:41:52 AM #59: |
I'm worried Portal 2 wont be as strong anymore, or just the games in general.
--- God is not preparing you for anything, you are just suffering ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 9:43:48 AM #60: |
Which is possible! That's part of what makes this an interesting contest. We don't have years worth of X-Stats to help us make informed decisions. Very few of these games have been in any sort of contest.
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 4:12:58 PM #61: |
Division 7
(1) Dark Souls (16) Hotline Miami (8) Rocket League (9) Dragon Ball FighterZ https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6157-best-game-ever-day-30-round-3-zelda-a-link-to-the-past-vs https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4589-best-of-2011-best-multi-platform-game-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4587-best-of-2011-best-multi-platform-game-day-1 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4955-best-of-2012-best-action-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5376-best-of-2013-playstation-vita https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6197-best-of-2015-playstation-4 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6200-best-of-2015-pc https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7462-best-of-2018-playstation-4 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7464-best-of-2018-xbox-one Dark Souls might be one of those games that benefits from the contest being Game of the Decade because there's absolutely no denying its impact on gaming as a whole. If people take that into consideration, I can see it getting a boost from that. It did well enough in 2015 that there's not much reason to worry about it in this fourpack. Hotline Miami is a nonentity here. Rocket League vs. Dragon Ball FighterZ seemed interesting at first glance, but the more I've thought about it, the more confident I feel in Rocket League. This site doesn't care about fighting games that aren't Street Fighter, so you're basically counting on the Dragon Ball name to carry it to victory if you're picking it. That might work against something like Hotline Miami, but Rocket League is popular enough for that not to matter here. Not popular enough to challenge Dark Souls next round, however! Prediction: Dark Souls > Rocket League (5) Yakuza 0 (12) The Witness (4) Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (13) Dead Cells https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5869-whats-your-all-time-favorite-sega-franchise https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7261-division-3-round-1-kazuma-vs-bomberman https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7288-division-7-round-1-chief-vs-majima https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6570-best-of-2016-indies https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5387-which-upcoming-original-title-are-you-most-looking-forward https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6197-best-of-2015-playstation-4 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6136-best-game-ever-day-22-round-2-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-dark https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7465-best-of-2018-pc https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7468-best-of-2018-indies If you had asked me before the bracket was revealed whether Metal Gear Solid V would win multiple matches, I would've bet against it. And yet it's got one of the weaker fourpacks in the contest. We already saw Yakuza's characters flame out in the last Character Battle, but The Witness looks like it could be one of the weakest games in the entire contest, so I think it should win that one. I've been trying to figure out if SBAllen put MGSV against a game called Dead Cells on purpose or if it was just a fantastic coincidence. As far as indie games go, it's shown well in polls, but even with MGSV's tepid reception, it's got too much name recognition and brand power to blow it, you would think. Prediction: Metal Gear Solid V > Yakuza 0 (3) Batman: Arkham City (14) Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (6) BioShock Infinite (11) Terraria https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6053-best-game-ever-day-1-batman-arkham-city-vs-mega-man-x https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4594-best-of-2011-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4165-north-division-round-3-fallout-3-vs-batman-arkham-asylum https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6946-best-of-2017-switch https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6579-which-of-nintendos-switch-games-are-you-most-interested-in https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5379-best-of-2013-pc https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5382-best-of-2013-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6105-best-game-ever-day-14-fallout-new-vegas-vs-bioshock-infinite https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4591-best-of-2011-best-download-only-game This is one of the only fourpacks in the contest where we have contest data on mult ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 9:36:10 PM #62: |
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TheCodeisBosco 03/01/20 10:36:45 PM #63: |
"Heavy Rain might get some joke votes"
This cracked me up. Heavy Rain truly became a punching bag, didn't it? Great write-ups so far, looking forward to reading the rest. --- The music was thud-like. The music was... thud-like. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 10:39:30 PM #64: |
JAAAAAAAAAAAAson
that's all I remember about Heavy Rain --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/01/20 11:33:46 PM #65: |
Division 8
(1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim (16) Subnautica (8) Fate / Grand Order (9) Journey https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7069-whats-your-all-time-favorite-5-game https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6166-best-game-ever-day-34-division-iv-final-skyrim-vs-super https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4962-best-of-2012-game-of-the-generation-2006-2012 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4594-best-of-2011-game-of-the-year https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7465-best-of-2018-pc https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/3692-cb8-vote-in-day-2-which-character-would-you-most-like-to-see https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5160-character-battle-ix-division-2-round-1-bowser-vs-archer-vs https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6066-best-game-ever-day-4-final-fantasy-vii-vs-journey https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4954-best-of-2012-best-action-adventure-game Skyrim is easily the most proven entity in this contest. It dominated a Zelda game to win GOTY in 2011, something none of us would have imagined possible. It made a deep run in the 2015 contest, beating established and beloved games in Metroid Prime and GoldenEye before netting a respectable 40% on Mario 64. Despite that, people seem to be skeptical of it for reasons I'm not totally sure I get. Are we just assuming people are sick of it now or something? I dunno, but it won't be an issue here. Subnautica won't be worth much. Fate/Grand Order vs. Journey is kinda tough because they'll both be among the weakest entries in the contest. Whoever wins this might be the weakest game in the contest to win a match. I think I'd favor Journey just because I can't imagine this site siding with a mobile gacha game. Prediction: Skyrim > Journey (5) Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn (12) Crypt of the NecroDancer (4) Uncharted 4: A Thief's End (13) Mario Kart 8 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7837-best-of-2019-expansions https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6802-are-you-one-of-the-10-million-cumulative-players-of-final https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6872-which-final-fantasy-title-is-your-all-time-favorite https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7060-do-you-own-bitcoin-or-any-other-cryptocurrencies https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1446-who-is-your-favorite-all-time-final-fantasy-villan https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/7611-which-konami-game-series-is-your-all-time-favorite https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6575-best-of-2016-game-of-the-year-final-vote https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6565-best-of-2016-playstation-4 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6381-now-that-the-first-half-of-2016-is-over-what-is-your-pick https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6952-best-of-2017-remakes https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6079-best-game-ever-day-8-super-mario-64-vs-mario-kart-8 https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/5745-best-of-2014-wii-u The first match is pretty simple. After a dreadful beginning, Final Fantasy XIV is probably the most beloved game in the series released in the last decade. Crypt of the NecroDancer is the only game in this contest that we have literally no data whatsoever on, not even tangentially. Thankfully, it won't matter because I don't expect it to have much of a chance here. Uncharted 4/Mario Kart 8 is an important match because the winner has a chance to win the entire fourpack. Uncharted 4 finished third in a weak GOTY field, but it's one of the best selling Playstation 4 games out there, so it has a base to draw from. Mario Kart historically has gotten incredibly crappy draws in contests, including ton of SFF and LFF situations. Mario Kart 8 got quadrupled by Mario 64 in 2015, for instance. I honestly don't know which way to lean here because we've seen that being a Mario game doesn't make you strong (see: Halo 3/Mario Sunshine and Marvel vs. Capcom 2/New Super Mario Bros. Wii). I think there's a solid argument for FFXIV, UC4, and MK8 for winning this fourpack. My gut instinct was MK8, but the more I talk about it, the less certain I am! I'll probably change my mind a couple times before brackets lock down! Prediction: Mario Kart 8 > Final Fantasy XIV (3) Pokemon HeartGold / SoulSilver Version (14) Night in the Woods (6) Celeste (11) Rayman Legends https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6866-have-you-ever-owned-pokemon-gold-silver-or-crystal https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/6234-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-pokemon-generation https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/4204- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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swirIdude 03/02/20 12:00:11 AM #66: |
LeonhartFour posted...
I'm rolling with Automata > Pokemon here, too. Like I said, I'm dubious about its strength, and I think Automata is a good game to expose it. But what if NieR: Automata doesn't have quite the same strong assets as 2B did in 2018? --- Advokaiser picked Cloud in Guru and rained on my bracket. At least I finished 20th overall! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/02/20 12:01:40 AM #67: |
imagine A1 and 2B in the same match pic
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MetalmindStats 03/02/20 12:04:15 AM #68: |
LeonhartFour posted...
I think there's a solid argument for FFXIV, UC4, and MK8 for winning this fourpack.Personally, I think this fourpack is really simple. Uncharted 4 is guaranteed to be weaker than Uncharted 2, and Mario Kart 8 is guaranteed to be stronger than its standing in 2015's adjusted X-stats - whether that's due to unaccounted-for SFF, Deluxe, or both. Even with brackets and potentially GotD respect in Uncharted's favor, that makes it a 50-50 match at worst. Also, FF14 is an MMO on GameFAQs. It's not as though it can't win, but established entities like Uncharted and Mario Kart feel a bit past its pay grade. LeonhartFour posted... It won't be enough to beat Pokemon, but Rayman has been pathetic in every poll it's ever been in, so I think Celeste should win in round 1.That 2013 match was hardly pathetic for Rayman, unless you think Squall was already as weak then as he was in 2018. Otherwise, it's a solid high fodder result, which would be more than enough to beat back Celeste if it holds. LeonhartFour posted... I'd normally be reluctant to pick something I'd never heard of to win a match, but here we are! Says a lot of about this contest!To be honest, you never having heard of Divinity: Original Sin II before says more about you than it does about this contest. I'm not going to argue it's a hidden beast, but it might at least be decent-ish. And yeah, I really don't get why there's been so much discussion about Mario Kart 8 beating Skyrim. If anything, Skyrim will probably fare better in that match than it would on a mainstream gaming site, given how we're a bunch of 30-year-old loners who at best don't care about your typical casual bait. --- "I believe in a universe that doesn't care, and people who do." You won the CBX Guru Contest, Advokaiser! Bully for you! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LordoftheMorons 03/02/20 12:05:57 AM #69: |
If HGSS was GSC how far would you have it going?
--- Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Challenge! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/02/20 12:10:05 AM #70: |
MetalmindStats posted...
Uncharted 4 is guaranteed to be weaker than Uncharted 2, and Mario Kart 8 is guaranteed to be stronger than its standing in 2015's adjusted X-stats - whether that's due to unaccounted-for SFF, Deluxe, or both. I don't trust anything that was in Undertale's division in 2015, so I discount that entirely. It's got nothing to do with KP's adjustment skills. It's just a matter of it being something that isn't possible to completely fix. MetalmindStats posted... That 2013 match was hardly pathetic for Rayman, unless you think Squall was already as weak then as he was in 2018. Otherwise, it's a solid high fodder result, which would be more than enough to beat back Celeste if it holds. Eh, somebody had to suck up votes because Squall was only going to go so high and friggin' Commander Video sure wasn't going to be the one to do that. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/02/20 12:12:25 AM #71: |
LordoftheMorons posted...
If HGSS was GSC how far would you have it going? It was getting, what, 44% on Melee before the fanbase inexplicably decided they needed to rally, and pushed it out to 60/40? I dunno. It'd probably give Skyrim all it could handle and maybe even beat it if it's lost some steam like a lot of people believe. If it could beat Skyrim, then I don't know what would stop it from getting to the finals. Witcher 3, I guess, if the Netflix boost winds up being worth a lot. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/02/20 4:52:08 AM #72: |
I have Fate winning but I feel dirty for it.
Like Journey is one very artsy game made out of pure love and Fate is the opposite of that. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/02/20 9:52:27 AM #73: |
I'll try to finish up later today.
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LeonhartFour 03/02/20 2:47:50 PM #74: |
Quarterfinals/Semifinals
(1) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (1) Mass Effect 2 (1) Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (2) Fire Emblem: Three Houses The quarterfinal matches are both obvious. No matter what you have escaping from Divisions 2 and 4, they can't realistically challenge BOTW and Smash without a rally. Now is there a reason to believe Ultimate can beat Zelda (without rallying)? I honestly think Smash's peak was during the Brawl era. People love Ultimate, but I just don't think Smash is quite as big of a deal this past decade as it was in the 2000s. Probably part of that is because we're older now so we aren't playing as much local multiplayer, which also hurts Ultimate overall because Nintendo still hasn't figured out how to do good online play somehow. Plus, Breath of the Wild is the biggest Zelda game in many years, and this will always be ZeldaFAQs first and foremost. Prediction: Breath of the Wild > Smash Ultimate (1) The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (1) Persona 5 (2) The Last of Us (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim I think the winners of Division 5 (whether it be Witcher 3 or God of War) and Division 8 (whether it be Skyrim or Pokemon) are the favorites over whatever emerges from Division 6 (and if it ain't Persona 5, nothing else there has much of a shot) and Division 7 (whether it be Dark Souls or The Last of Us). I think those games have established themselves as having higher ceilings for the most part. I think the one wild card (appropriately enough) is Persona 5 because we haven't really gotten a chance to see what it's worth. Breath of the Wild was a vacuum in that 2017 GOTY poll, and it still held up pretty well, but the fact that Zelda literally took up half the vote means we didn't really get a good sense of its strength. If someone wants to take a chance on Persona 5, I certainly would not blame them. In a bracket that looks pretty chalky, you'll need something to separate yourself from the pack and that's as good as any. I'm just sticking with the known commodities here. As far as Witcher 3/Skyrim, I think people forget just how strong Skyrim has been over the last decade. Witcher 3 was fine in 2015, but it wasn't anywhere near Skyrim. The 2015 adjusted X-Stats project a 60% win for Skyrim. I know those numbers won't be exact, but unless you think MGS2 beats Skyrim, too (and it wouldn't have), there's a decent sized gap. The big question is: Has enough changed in the last 5 years to bridge that gap? Witcher 3 was fairly new at the time, so has its potentially increased playership improved its strength by a noticeable amount? Will the Netflix show matter? It certainly seemed to help Alucard in 2018 (or at least that's what we attributed it to), and the Witcher show is a bigger deal on Netflix than Castlevania. Have people soured on Skyrim as a whole? Maybe, but I tend to think not by enough for it to have lost significant strength. Prediction: Skyrim > Witcher 3 Finals (1) The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (1) The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Honestly, I think this is a final we'd all be interested in seeing if Skyrim shows it's still got the strength it showed in 2015. How strong can Breath of the Wild be? Would you take it to beat Twilight Princess, Wind Waker, Majora's Mask, or even LTTP? If the answer is yes, then you should probably take Zelda to win because Twilight Princess did better on Mario 64 than Skyrim did, unless you believe the HIERARCHY allowed TP to score some rSFF or you think Zelda can only lose so badly if it's a game people actually like. Would you take Metroid Prime to beat Breath of the Wild? Skyrim went 50/50 with it for the most part. Of course, you have to consider that Skyrim was almost always dealing with rally overflow from Undertale, which usually seemed to negatively impact it, so it might actually be stronger than it appears...! To me, I don't see a reason to pick any winner other than one of these two unless you're banking on a rally or you're looking for an upset pick to separate yourself from the pack. Of course, literally no one here picked Majora's Mask to win the first GotD, so it's possible (likely, even!) that I'm way off base about a lot of my predictions...! Anyway, BOTW and Skyrim seem head and shoulders above everything here other than maybe Smash Ultimate, but I don't expect the HIERARCHY to allow Zelda to lose that one head to head. They always know when to fall in line. Prediction: Breath of the Wild > Skyrim --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 03/02/20 5:58:04 PM #75: |
I hate how chalky my bracket is. I imagine we will end up with a lot of early Guru eliminations this year just because there will be so few major deviation points.
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transience 03/02/20 6:18:37 PM #76: |
it feels kind of like the villain contest with a much bigger entrant pool, or maybe sc2k4. kind of a deep pull, but eh.
--- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SwiftyDC 03/02/20 6:20:24 PM #77: |
Big reason why I want my bracket to have an upset somewhere. It may go down early but if it hits cha-ching.
--- dilateDChemist ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 03/02/20 6:20:30 PM #78: |
Yeah, the side contests have mostly had predictable brackets. I remember yoblazer getting eliminated from the Guru on literally the third match of Rivalry Rumble.
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transience 03/02/20 6:32:13 PM #79: |
well, what are the biggest debates for diversifying? seems like it's
Nier/Pokemon Fallout/God of War Uncharted 4's fourpack division 4 in general Dark Souls/Last of Us Witcher/Skyrim those are probably the best picks to be different for different's sake. --- xyzzy ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 03/02/20 6:42:43 PM #80: |
I think if you wanted to be wild, you could have Persona 5 winning a quarterfinal match or even making the final.
I do think Division 4 is what makes or breaks the contest though. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SwiftyDC 03/02/20 7:02:18 PM #81: |
I think God of War gets past Fallout pretty easily. If God of War gets out of it's division I don't see anything else stopping it from getting the Finals, Skyrim be damned - Dad of the Decade is coming.
--- dilateDChemist ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Anagram 03/02/20 7:03:51 PM #82: |
I have BotW vs HGSS in the finals, but I know Im an outlier.
--- Not changing this sig until I decide to change this sig. Started: July 6, 2005 ... Copied to Clipboard!
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SwiftyDC 03/02/20 7:06:00 PM #83: |
Anagram posted...
I have BotW vs HGSS in the finals, but I know Im an outlier. That's what I have atm, but it's really banking on a rally some how. I'll most likely change it. --- dilateDChemist ... Copied to Clipboard!
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junk_funk 03/02/20 7:56:08 PM #84: |
Leon, you ever consider you're underrating SM Galaxy 2?
I have it beating Witcher III and God of War, then barely taking Persona 5...and I think it can even give Skyrim a shot. Am I being foolish, and if so could you explain a bit? --- Advokaiser came, saw, conquered. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Leonhart4 03/02/20 8:00:56 PM #85: |
Super Mario Galaxy 2 is one of my absolute favorite games, but it isn't that strong. It lost to ME1 in 2015. It isn't as strong as Galaxy 1, which is firmly a mid-tier game. Galaxy 2's biggest problem is that it came out after most of this site had stopped caring about the Wii.
Now I'd love nothing more than to be wrong, but Mario games aren't automatically strong just because they're Mario games. Like most series, it's stuck in the past and most of the games after Mario 64 are second tier or worse. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 12:25:10 AM #86: |
Key bump
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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KamikazePotato 03/03/20 12:35:35 AM #87: |
I might have to back off my Witcher 3 > Skyrim sexy upset pick after reviewing 2015's stats, but I'm still tempted!
--- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Team Rocket Elite 03/03/20 12:45:14 AM #88: |
Skyrim is a beast. Witcher 3 has reason to boost but it has a lot of ground to cover.
--- Link isn't the only one who kicks ass. Congrats to Advokaiser for winning the CBX Guru Contest! ... Copied to Clipboard!
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Yuri_LowelI 03/03/20 2:29:42 AM #89: |
SwiftyDC posted...
I think God of War gets past Fallout pretty easily. If God of War gets out of it's division I don't see anything else stopping it from getting the Finals, Skyrim be damned - Dad of the Decade is coming. i love god of war but theres a reason it overperformed in GOTY polls. It was a great game for its time. It just wont have that support now. i mean i hope it does. If it does it makes the final but that wont happen --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LinkMarioSamus 03/03/20 2:59:36 AM #90: |
I think people might be down on Skyrim because of Bethesda's reputation being in tatters now after Fallout 76. New Vegas might be able to escape that to an extent because it wasn't developed by Bethesda.
Awakening having a lower seed than it did in 2015 is interesting. I had it winning three matches initially, but otherwise picking it to beat Bloodborne just does not feel right. Ultimately changed to RE2 > ME2. I have literally no idea about Three Houses' reception, so I picked Xenoblade over it due to Xenoblade being stronger than Awakening in '15. Plus weren't there serious backlash over Byleth in Smash? --- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 3:01:02 AM #91: |
There was backlash over the fact that it was yet another Fire Emblem character more than any problem with the game itself.
--- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LinkMarioSamus 03/03/20 3:04:05 AM #92: |
Okay. Might consider Three Houses > Xenoblade then, but whoever wins that probably wins the division.
--- "Nothing I could do!" -Darksydephil ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/03/20 4:56:32 AM #93: |
transience posted...
well, what are the biggest debates for diversifying? seems like it's Do you want to be different, though? I wonder if there is an actual benefit to diversifying other than getting eliminated later instead of early. ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 4:57:42 AM #94: |
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Do you want to be different, though? I wonder if there is an actual benefit to diversifying other than getting eliminated later instead of early. You want to make calculated upsets simply because the chalk is going to be wrong somewhere. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/03/20 4:59:10 AM #95: |
LeonhartFour posted...
You want to make calculated upsets simply because the chalk is going to be wrong somewhere. Is it? Is your upset is more likely to be right than the chalk? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 5:01:00 AM #96: |
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Is it? No, but the chalk never gets a perfect bracket. It's going to be wrong somewhere, so you have to make your best bet as to where. --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/03/20 5:03:10 AM #97: |
LeonhartFour posted...
No, but the chalk never gets a perfect bracket. It's going to be wrong somewhere, so you have to make your best bet as to where. The chalk never gets the perfect bracket, or it just hasn't been lucky to get the perfect bracket yet but is still more likely to get it than whatever upset you came up with? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 5:05:23 AM #98: |
The chalk is right more often than not, but it's not right every time. It's not a matter of "it hasn't been lucky enough to get a perfect bracket." If you're talking "likely," the odds are very much against it ever doing so.
it's the people who are willing to take a risk and have it pay off that win the contest not the people who make all the popular picks --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/03/20 5:08:05 AM #99: |
LeonhartFour posted...
Is there evidence for that or is it just what the site is used to thinking? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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LeonhartFour 03/03/20 5:08:29 AM #100: |
uh yes
look at every Guru contest result ever --- ... Copied to Clipboard!
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ZeldaTPLink 03/03/20 5:34:57 AM #101: |
LeonhartFour posted...
uh yes They say the cookie has never won, but is that just a coincidence or is the cookie actually less likely to win than any other individual pick? ... Copied to Clipboard!
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