Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 279: Bye-Don.

(+) Yeah! (+)

xp1337 posted...

I hesitate posting this, because I truly don't want to start an argument, but I think the Super Tuesday results were grimmer on every front then I think most realize.

Like legitimately I think this is already over. To put this in more stark terms, of the 36 contests remaining, Clinton defeated Sanders in 26 of them in 2016. The remaining map is just very unfavorable to Sanders. California was among the last states to go in 2016 so it always existed as a kind of white whale full of delegates to provide false hope that things weren't over, but this time it's already off the board so you don't have that here. Then put in the likely Biden blowout in Florida along with Sanders apparently pulling out of Mississippi and it feels pretty over.

But on a bigger picture/general election level, I feel like Super Tuesday dealt a fatal blow to Sanders's theory of the case. Youth turnout was flat or lower across the board - there was no surge in turnout. The more generalized "Sanders wins when turnout surges" was turned upside down. Turnout was up big on Super Tuesday, surging well past 2008 levels in many states like Virginia and Texas. ...And it led to Biden blowouts (VA) or overperformances/upsets (TX). That's the exact opposite of what the Sanders argument was. We got high turnout and it led to Biden winning. Vermont was very arguably Sanders's worst state of the night. Yes, he got 50.8% of the vote. But Biden reached viability at 22%. In 2016 Sanders beat Clinton 85.69-13.56% in Vermont. He fliped Maine which went to Sanders in 2016 by 29 points. Biden looks to be putting the Obama coalition back together again and we know that coalition can win. Sanders isn't getting the coalition he claims he will get and will need to win.

I know my own voting position has been the subject of both mockery and debate here, but even putting that aside, I think Super Tuesday locked me into Biden (despite, again, aligning more with Sanders on policy) because I think Sanders's electability argument was sunk there while Biden showed he could win and generate higher turnout. Obviously, I'm still watching to see what happens going forward but... the data is overwhelming at this point in my view. The top priority has to be ensuring Trump loses in November and I think Super Tuesday raised some very serious doubts about the argument that Sanders himself uses as his path.

hey man, no one here or anywhere else gets to tell you why or how to vote. thats not acceptable behavior at all

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I think the Biden electability argument falls flat on its face when you look at how his campaign is currently running.

His entire position, that even xp argued is the only reason for supporting him, is that hes more electable.

Why is he more electable? Because hes winning primaries? Why is he winning primaries? Because hes more electable?

You can see how Joe is speaking and doing interviews at a FRACTION of the amount any other candidate has, and you have to know why.

Rachel Maddow literally did an on camera plea for his campaign to respond to her requests for an interview.

If Joe doesnt have a message, if he cant TELL that message, then the medias obsession with Trump combined with his constant campaigning will annihilate Joe in November.

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At this point, Biden looks electable just because people like him and keep voting for him.

Maybe the Dem Trump was Biden all along since no one seems to care what he says or does!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

His entire position, that even xp argued is the only reason for supporting him, is that hes more electable.

Why is he more electable? Because hes winning primaries? Why is he winning primaries? Because hes more electable?

You can see how Joe is speaking and doing interviews at a FRACTION of the amount any other candidate has, and you have to know why.

This is about 1/4 of the reason I'm not even slightly excited to vote for Biden in November, even though I fully plan on doing so and getting friends/family to do so if nothing changes and he's the nominee.

(The other 3/4 is literally "nothing will fundamentally change" and fuck that)

The Sanders turnout argument was always misguided I think. Bernie shouldn't have encouraged it and definitely shouldn't have repeated it himself. The thing about saying you'll win through increasing turnout among people who usually don't vote is that it is inherently threatening to people who do vote. What they understand you to mean is that they won't a voice in your government, because you are going to ignore them and get elected with votes from others.

Even if you believe it you absolutely must not say it.

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And Bernie didn't need to make that turnout argument. He didn't need to because he can contest an election with Trump on the issues! He can go head to head for those swing voters in November. That's why he was a stronger candidate than Hillary in 2016 and that's why he should have been the most electable candidate in 2020.

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"Electability" is nothing more than a buzzword. Biden's terrible on a lot of policies. He's in the pockets of big business, and will continue mass incarceration. Then there's his weak stance on healthcare. He wants "More choice" which is meaningless. Any government system that has to compete with the private market will fail to provide adequate coverage because lobbyists will make sure of it. His stance on pro-choice is pretty weak too, and has a history of being weak. Yeah, he's better than Trump. But not by nearly enough. Biden's only real strength is that he was Obama's Vice President. Which is also meaningless. He's not Obama. He doesn't have a tenth of the charisma, or even the platform or promises. But hey, he's 'electable' I guess. Whatever that's supposed to mean. And of course he wants to work with Republicans and keep tax cuts for the rich and keep students in debt. Because he's part of the oligarchy. Yeah, things will be better under Biden than Trump. I'll vote for him if I have to. But don't tell me he's 'electable'. It doesn't mean anything.

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Dancedreamer posted...

Yeah, he's better than Trump.

Yup.
Dancedreamer posted...

But not by nearly enough.

Yup.
Dancedreamer posted...

And of course he wants to work with Republicans and keep tax cuts for the rich and keep students in debt. Because he's part of the oligarchy. Yeah, things will be better under Biden than Trump. I'll vote for him if I have to. But don't tell me he's 'electable'. It doesn't mean anything.

Yup.

Meanwhile, Biden Dems are setting themselves up for another Comey letter, except this time the person in charge of the FBI and Justice Department is Donald Trump.

Very optimistic.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1235985697691111424?s=21


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I really don't buy the theory that Biden is some false electability bubble being artificially propped up simply because I think the bubble would already have burst after his poor showing in the first couple primaries.
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I flip on whether the Bernie to Biden gap is bigger than the Biden to Trump gap at some times.

Like, in the very unlikely world where Biden beats Trump, my prevailing feeling will absolutely not be relief, if will be "now how fast can we get THIS guy outta here?" The number one goal at that time will be doing what we can to make sure Biden doesn't run for reelection.

Well, whether he really is electable or not in the general is another question--however I don't think "electability" is the only thing or even a major factor in driving his current success though.
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Nobody has really ever sold me on Biden. What does he offer that... Amy Klobuchar doesn't offer? That Mayor Pete doesn't offer? That Hillary Clinton didn't offer? That Kamala Harris doesn't offer? I'm not even asking to compare him to Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Just what does he offer that the rest of the moderate dems don't? I mean yeah, he's better than Bloomberg. But he also happily accepted Bloombergs endorsement. Biden kept telling people "Vote for someone else!" He said he has no empathy for millennials. It's tone-deaf, and I don't see how he's so 'electable' as people keep telling me.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Meanwhile, Biden Dems are setting themselves up for another Comey letter, except this time the person in charge of the FBI and Justice Department is Donald Trump.

Very optimistic.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1235985697691111424?s=21

Remember when people started thinking Romney may not be scum because of his impeachment votes?

Being very slightly and occasionally better than the absolute worst does not make him anywhere near good.

Buttery Males will become Butt Hunter in 2020 I'm afraid. I was afraid back when it was announced, and I don't see how moderate dems are like "Nah, people will TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY ACCEPT THAT BIDEN DID NO WRONG! MUCH LIKE THEY DID WITH HILLARY CLINTON! OR OBAMA AND HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE! OR LITERALLY ANYTHING ELSE."

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I mean that's just it, there is absolutely nothing about Biden worth voting for. He is a completely worthless candidate. Every single defense of him is just the importance of beating Trump and having a Democrat in office.

Even when I was acting like a bitch and demanding people tell me literally one reason to vote for the guy on individual merit this past Tuesday, even the people getting mad at me couldn't manage to say a single thing.

Dancedreamer posted...

"Electability" is nothing more than a buzzword. Biden's terrible on a lot of policies. He's in the pockets of big business, and will continue mass incarceration. Then there's his weak stance on healthcare. He wants "More choice" which is meaningless. Any government system that has to compete with the private market will fail to provide adequate coverage because lobbyists will make sure of it. His stance on pro-choice is pretty weak too, and has a history of being weak. Yeah, he's better than Trump. But not by nearly enough. Biden's only real strength is that he was Obama's Vice President. Which is also meaningless. He's not Obama. He doesn't have a tenth of the charisma, or even the platform or promises. But hey, he's 'electable' I guess. Whatever that's supposed to mean. And of course he wants to work with Republicans and keep tax cuts for the rich and keep students in debt. Because he's part of the oligarchy. Yeah, things will be better under Biden than Trump. I'll vote for him if I have to. But don't tell me he's 'electable'. It doesn't mean anything.

Actually, you just explained why Biden is electable. Because people like those policies. People want the tax cuts for the rich and they want to keep students in debt. They want Republicans to have a lot of power. This is presumably why Sephy thinks Biden is okay.

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Dancedreamer posted...

Buttery Males will become Butt Hunter in 2020 I'm afraid. I was afraid back when it was announced, and I don't see how moderate dems are like "Nah, people will TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY ACCEPT THAT BIDEN DID NO WRONG! MUCH LIKE THEY DID WITH HILLARY CLINTON! OR OBAMA AND HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE! OR LITERALLY ANYTHING ELSE."

i mean, they'll be more likely to accept that he did nothing wrong because he's a man. tbh.

Dels posted...

i mean, they'll be more likely to accept that he did nothing wrong because he's a man. tbh.

No, that would only work if he were a Republican.

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Obama's slogan in 2008: "Hope and Change"
Biden's slogan 2020: "Let's keep things the same! No Malarkey!"

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Dancedreamer posted...

Nobody has really ever sold me on Biden. What does he offer that... Amy Klobuchar doesn't offer? That Mayor Pete doesn't offer? That Hillary Clinton didn't offer? That Kamala Harris doesn't offer? I'm not even asking to compare him to Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. Just what does he offer that the rest of the moderate dems don't? I mean yeah, he's better than Bloomberg. But he also happily accepted Bloombergs endorsement. Biden kept telling people "Vote for someone else!" He said he has no empathy for millennials. It's tone-deaf, and I don't see how he's so 'electable' as people keep telling me.

He has way more experience, trust, and goodwill than all of those candidates. And people LIKE him. Here on the left we have plenty of criticisms of his record and policies but people look past that and trust him as someone who knows government and is practical.

You don't have to agree, but what you need to understand about Biden's support is that the same admiration and respect for consistency that the left has for Bernie, the Democrat base has for Biden.

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"Trust and goodwill" in what way? When has he earned either of those things?

https://twitter.com/aishaismad/status/1235995528288182272?s=21

Joe Biden delegate and spokesperson (edited for readability):

I dont want a candidate who was supported by the NRA in the past.

Interviewer: Didnt you say you voted for Bernie in 2016?

I didnt vote FOR Bernie, I was more voting against the establishment.

Interviewer: Now you support Joe Biden, you dont consider him the establishment?

There is no establishment, I think this is almost like a myth, if there were truly an establishment, Bernie Sanders wouldnt have been able to get as far as he did.

This shit is comical. The gaslighting bullshit directed towards Bernie in condensed form.

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Was it when he constantly lied all the time? When he made up fake stories about his accomplishments? When he voted alongside Republicans and for Republican policies?

Ah, I see, he has the trust and goodwill of the ELITE conservative members of the Democratic party.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

Was it when he constantly lied all the time? When he made up fake stories about his accomplishments? When he voted alongside Republicans and for Republican policies?

Ah, I see, he has the trust and goodwill of the ELITE conservative members of the Democratic party.

I'm not arguing with you because I don't make the rules about Biden's reputation. But it's what he has and people vote for him!

To use a stupid contest analogy, he is Link in character battles.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

https://twitter.com/aishaismad/status/1235995528288182272?s=21

Joe Biden delegate and spokesperson (edited for readability):

I dont want a candidate who was supported by the NRA in the past.

Interviewer: Didnt you say you voted for Bernie in 2016?

I didnt vote FOR Bernie, I was more voting against the establishment.

this is mostly stupid, but the part at the end where she clarifies the "establishment" bit by saying her vote for Bernie in 2016 was really a Hillary antivote is too fucking real

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

He has way more experience, trust, and goodwill than all of those candidates. And people LIKE him. Here on the left we have plenty of criticisms of his record and policies but people look past that and trust him as someone who knows government and is practical.

So basically.. he's an old white male. That's basically all that says to me. Bernie has a lot of experience too. And unlike Biden, he's never said "I have no empathy for Millenials". He's never told anyone "Then vote for someone else!" And he's never come across as someone with early signs of dementia either.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

To use a stupid contest analogy, he is Link in character battles.

Oh god, that means Trump's Draven, doesn't it?

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https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Meanwhile, Biden Dems are setting themselves up for another Comey letter, except this time the person in charge of the FBI and Justice Department is Donald Trump.

Very optimistic.

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1235985697691111424?s=21

You know that this is total bullshit, which means you know there would be absolutely nothing stopping them from doing something similar to Sanders.

Also extremely disappointed in Romney. JFC.

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trying to rationalize voters is a fools errand, they're not at all considerate of anything complicated like policy

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LordoftheMorons posted...

You know that this is total bullshit, which means you know there would be absolutely nothing stopping them from doing something similar to Sanders.

Also extremely disappointed in Romney. JFC.

No one would believe any allegations against Bernie.

Ashethan posted...

Oh god, that means Trump's Draven, doesn't it?

You mean someone who narrowly beats the rightful champion in one contest and then gets absolutely destroyed in the next one?

I hope so...!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

there would be absolutely nothing stopping them from doing something similar to Sanders.

And what, pray tell, would they do on this for Sanders? The reason this is working against Biden is because it has been in the public consciousness for a while.

Don't go making shit up, please.

Ashethan posted...

Oh god, that means Trump's Draven, doesn't it?

If Trump is Draven, then Russia is the LoL subreddit.

Yeah, that looks reasonable.

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TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

This was incredible

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People keep saying Biden isn't electable but if he beats Sanders it pretty much shows voters find him more electable.

Which is kind of all that matters on that front.

TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

Yeah, for laughs. Imagine making the Centrist = N-word comparison with a straight face. Ridiculous.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

which means you know there would be absolutely nothing stopping them from doing something similar to Sanders

Like what.

TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

It kind of breaks for me at the end when the actual statement is "neither of them have done shit for us so or doesn't matter".

Even in this crush piece, nobody can actually say anything good about Biden.

TheRock1525 posted...

https://www.theroot.com/an-open-letter-to-white-liberals-blaming-low-informatio-1842100419/

This was an amazing read.

I was debating posting this to emphasize my point about Biden but I dont think people are gonna like it!

Here's more normal journalism too

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-voters-know-what-they-want-tuesday-it-was-joe-n1151001

If I have any point it's that more than railing against Biden, the past couple of days have forced me to examine why Bernie's campaign didn't do more outreach to people who actually showed up to vote.

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HeroDelTiempo17 posted...

I was debating posting this to emphasize my point about Biden but I dont think people are gonna like it!

Here's more normal journalism too

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/nbcblk/black-voters-know-what-they-want-tuesday-it-was-joe-n1151001

If I have any point it's that more than railing against Biden, the past couple of days have forced me to examine why Bernie's campaign didn't do more outreach to people who actually showed up to vote.

Joe did 0 outreach in several states that he won

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Joe did 0 outreach in several states that he won

And he didn't need to, because of his reputation being secure with the base.

Why did every other candidate either give up on winning this part of the base over, or come off as inauthentic or unsuccessful when they did try? Is Joe Biden really that rock-solid or is everyone else just that much more garbage at it than he is? Both are possible.

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Reg posted...

And what, pray tell, would they do on this for Sanders? The reason this is working against Biden is because it has been in the public consciousness for a while.

Don't go making shit up, please.

It doesn't matter what it is, because you've thrown out the requirement that there be any legitimacy! It could, for example, be the FBI investigation into Sanders' wife (which was closed without any charges being brought).

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Biden is proposing to expand health insurance coverage without taking away coverage people are already happy with.

This is a good thing which Sanders is not doing.
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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Joe did 0 outreach in several states that he won

Thats the part Im still trying to figure out. I sort of understand Minnesota, but some of the others are really hard to follow, and Im someone that was very happy with the results.

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Joe Biden is just that generic. He won BECAUSE he didn't talk. As soon as he has to campaign he's plummeting, because he isn't capable.

UshiromiyaEva posted...

It kind of breaks for me at the end when the actual statement is "neither of them have done s*** for us so or doesn't matter".

It breaks for me when the examples he used off the rip are two tweets from accounts with 8 and 9 followers, respectively.

Also, Bernie gets an equivalent amount of support with Latinos, but for some reason we can safely ignore that.

Defend it.

Please ask white Liberals supporting Biden to explain why Biden gets 8% of the Hispanic vote.

I bet theyre gonna say something stupid too, because theyre not a part of that community, and to speak on it from the outside like its a monolith is moronicand yet the media keeps forcing white Bernie supporters to do it.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Joe Biden is just that generic. He won BECAUSE he didn't talk. As soon as he has to campaign he's plummeting, because he isn't capable.

I disagree mostly, because he's already had a ton of gaffes that are all over the internet

People just don't care, for better or worse

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DoomTheGyarados posted...

Joe did 0 outreach in several states that he won

Bernie also made significant inroads into African American voting blocks, and at one point a few weeks ago was polling higher than Joe Biden among African Americans (in some polls). Certainly he was consistently doing better than the rest of the non Joe Biden field.

Which surprised me; I thought maybe Elizabeth Warren would have more appeal to African Americans than Bernie, but no, not even close; her white support was way higher than her African American support.

It really does seem to be South Carolina momentum. The combination of Steyer spending millions targeting young black voters (young black voters skew more towards Bernie, older ones more towards Biden, so Steyer and Bernie would have split the youth vote) combined with Jim Clyburn's endorsement which is apparently very influential in the state.

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pyresword posted...

Biden is proposing to expand health insurance coverage without taking away coverage people are already happy with.

This is a good thing which Sanders is not doing.

Spoilers, people who "are happy with" their current insurance coverage are the people who do not have to use it in significant ways. The kinds of people who just maybe get a checkup once every year or two.

And expanding private insurance does nothing to solve the choice between crushing debt or death/greatly reduced quality of life that the worse-off face when something serious happens to them.