Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 306: McMuffin Times Matter

(+) Yeah! (+)

SmartMuffin posted...

Now do hospitalizations and deaths.

Cases rising while hospitalizations and deaths are flat to down is how we get out of this. The alternative is lockdown forever. People used to call me crazy for suggesting that is exactly what Democrats want, but it is becoming increasingly obvious that they do.

As you should be aware, deaths lag hospitalizations, which lag new cases. But as it happens, hospitalization data from AZ is extremely concerning!

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1274066399426732032

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As you should be aware, deaths lag hospitalizations, which lag new cases. But as it happens, hospitalization data from AZ is extremely concerning!

Yes, there is a lag effect. But in an environment where we are getting better at treating the disease (definitely true) and getting better at isolating/protecting the vulnerable (seems to be true in most places), the percentage of cases that lead to hospitalization and death can continue to fall even as cases themselves rise.

And that chart for Arizona just looks like they haven't peaked yet. There is no "second wave." Their first wave was never done.

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go my michelle obama

although my money's on hillary revealing she's actually 1/16 black or smth

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Dark horse VP choice: Nina Turner.

Extremely similar experience to Abrams, except in Ohio, without the baggage, and progressive credibility and support.

Thoughts?

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SmartMuffin posted...

Yes, there is a lag effect. But in an environment where we are getting better at treating the disease (definitely true) and getting better at isolating/protecting the vulnerable (seems to be true in most places), the percentage of cases that lead to hospitalization and death can continue to fall even as cases themselves rise.

And that chart for Arizona just looks like they haven't peaked yet. There is no "second wave." Their first wave was never done.

It's hard to discuss it with people who keep shifting the goal posts regarding it, but cases rising also has a lot to do with testing rising. You can catch a lot more asymptomatics which aren't an issue and drive cases where before when only testing those with severe symptoms, you got less cases but more hospitalizations. It is like talking gibberish to people that keep cherry picking stats to show and such to support a narrative that was never the initial goal anyways.

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https://twitter.com/ztpetrizzo/status/1274018442975338498?s=21

Im sure this will be a huge success
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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Dark horse VP choice: Nina Turner.

Extremely similar experience to Abrams, except in Ohio, without the baggage, and progressive credibility and support.

Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1273965231182667778?s=19

I think it's time to brace yourself

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Im sure this will be a huge success

Very misguided. Cantwell had the right idea with his approach to dating: "Convert her with your cock." (note: strategy may be less effective in prison)

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Cantwell the crying nazi?

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Yes! Although this particular advice was for libertarians from his pre-nazi days.

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Corrik7 posted...

It's hard to discuss it with people who keep shifting the goal posts regarding it, but cases rising also has a lot to do with testing rising. You can catch a lot more asymptomatics which aren't an issue and drive cases where before when only testing those with severe symptoms, you got less cases but more hospitalizations. It is like talking gibberish to people that keep cherry picking stats to show and such to support a narrative that was never the initial goal anyways.

Im perfectly aware that some of the increasing case counts are explained by increases in testing. That is absolutely not all thats going on in places like AZ, where the fraction of tests that are positive is also increasing.

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I guess I'm a little surprised by the possible Harris pick because she was going after Biden during the debates. But I guess maybe Democrats can put that behind them. Personally speaking I didn't come away from the debates impressed by Harris but maybe she does make sense as a more behind the scenes #2.

I mention Haley because, as someone with left leaning persuasions, she seems like an "obvious" choice for Republicans. She's a well liked female and could bleed off some of the suburban white vote that propelled the Dems forward in 2018 (and 2020). So that scares me a bit. I guess I'm skeptical that Trump will have long lasting influence if he loses in 2020 for a Republican party that, in theory, would actually like to be widely electable in the future.

I view the country's inability to tamp down COVID-19 on the asinine politicization of the disease by the Trump administration. Having said that, as others have said, the important thing is more the hospitalizations and deaths. Those are the trends that concern me. Positive cases might be leading indicator but the amount of testing being done (or not being done) plays way too much of a factor.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

New coronavirus cases are now pretty definitively back to going up overall in the US:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1273997897630171138

Are we at herd immunity yet? How much longer will it take?

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Seanchan posted...

I guess I'm a little surprised by the possible Harris pick because she was going after Biden during the debates. But I guess maybe Democrats can put that behind them. Personally speaking I didn't come away from the debates impressed by Harris but maybe she does make sense as a more behind the scenes #2.

I mention Haley because, as someone with left leaning persuasions, she seems like an "obvious" choice for Republicans. She's a well liked female and could bleed off some of the suburban white vote that propelled the Dems forward in 2018 (and 2020). So that scares me a bit. I guess I'm skeptical that Trump will have long lasting influence if he loses in 2020 for a Republican party that, in theory, would actually like to be widely electable in the future.

I view the country's inability to tamp down COVID-19 on the asinine politicization of the disease by the Trump administration. Having said that, as others have said, the important thing is more the hospitalizations and deaths. Those are the trends that concern me. Positive cases might be leading indicator but the amount of testing being done (or not being done) plays way too much of a factor.

Nikki Haley is a woman, and isn't white. At best, she takes up the Republican party's token woman and token PoC slots in the primary to make the party seem like they're not just for white guys.

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red sox 777 posted...

Are we at herd immunity yet? How much longer will it take?

No way. The rough approximation of what you need for herd immunity is 1-1/R. If R0 is, say, 2.5, that's 60% of the population. If steady state distancing/mask compliance gives us an R of 1.25, that's still 20% of the population (possible NYC has had that level of infection, but nowhere else in the US).

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LordoftheMorons posted...

No way. The rough approximation of what you need for herd immunity is 1-1/R. If R0 is, say, 2.5, that's 60% of the population. If steady state distancing/mask compliance gives us an R of 1.25, that's still 20% of the population (possible NYC has had that level of infection, but nowhere else in the US).

And where do you think we are for infection rate?

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red sox 777 posted...

And where do you think we are for infection rate?

This isn't a super great estimate because of uncertainty about the exact fatality rate and lag, but if you assume a 1% true fatality rate then you estimate ~12 million actual cases for the US, which puts us around 3.7%.

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https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1274089573585428480?s=21
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I agree that Haley makes sense if the Republicans wanted to pivot towards appearing moderate again. I don't think that's where they are now, especially the base - and that's who votes in the primary.

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It's either going to be Trumpism or pretending that they never supported Trump (like with Bush), so I don't think Haley's "reasonableness" combined with Trump apologism is going to work out for her either way

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I'll believe Juneteenth is a real holiday when Crazy Eddie's Used Car Lot is running ads promising me deals that will set me free from the chains of high APRs.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

This isn't a super great estimate because of uncertainty about the exact fatality rate and lag, but if you assume a 1% true fatality rate then you estimate ~12 million actual cases for the US, which puts us around 3.7%.

That seems very low. What is your opinion on the studies regarding the percentage of people with antibodies? Those seem to consistently find an infection rate somewhere around an order of magnitude higher - I think the one done in Lombardy had 50%+ and NY was around 30%?

I've been struggling to make sense of the huge disparity between the antibody testing and the other testing.

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I've been struggling to make sense of the huge disparity between the antibody testing and the other testing.

Easy. There's a non-trivial portion of the population that's basically immune to COVID. That's why we're seeing peaks and falls in every relevant statistic in every jurisdiction that generally don't correlate at all with government-ordered lockdowns.

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red sox 777 posted...

That seems very low. What is your opinion on the studies regarding the percentage of people with antibodies? Those seem to consistently find an infection rate somewhere around an order of magnitude higher - I think the one done in Lombardy had 50%+ and NY was around 30%?

I've been struggling to make sense of the huge disparity between the antibody testing and the other testing.

NYC or NY state? The same 1% death rate estimate applied to NYC would give an estimate of about 20% of the city being infected. A death rate of ~0.66% would get you 30% infected.

I'm highly skeptical of the seroprevalence studies for areas without huge outbreaks (like the Santa Clara study that claimed a 3% prevalence a month or two ago was actually consistent with 0% prevalence if they considered false positives correctly), but they should be more reliable in areas that were extremely hard hit because false positives have a weaker effect on the results.

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SmartMuffin posted...

Easy. There's a non-trivial portion of the population that's basically immune to COVID. That's why we're seeing peaks and falls in every relevant statistic in every jurisdiction that generally don't correlate at all with government-ordered lockdowns.

If a big portion of the population has natural immunity, then herd immunity is much easier to reach.

I am leaning toward the idea of the antibody tests being right and a big share of the population having immunity already, whether by past infection or natural immunity, because the numbers are not surging as high as one would expect otherwise. The virus went from one city in China to massive waves of death across the world in 2 months. The number of active cases in Florida when they reopened was probably higher than the number of active cases in NY when they closed (or, if not, then almost certainly higher than 2 weeks before that). But, we haven't seen the exponential curve we saw earlier on. That suggests that the actual infection rate has been much higher and the fatality rate lower.

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That suggests that the actual infection rate has been much higher and the fatality rate lower.

ding ding ding

When this all shakes out and is over, the IFR is going to be less than 0.5%. It's practically guaranteed.

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For the record, if Nikki Haley manages to win the GOP Primary in 2024, I dont think the Dems have a single person on deck who could beat her.

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Punished Beto.

For real though way too early to speculate on 2024 hypotheticals lol.

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

For the record, if Nikki Haley manages to win the GOP Primary in 2024, I dont think the Dems have a single person on deck who could beat her.

If Trump loses in 2020, I think the GOP is probably going to be too demoralized to put up a good fight in 2024. Trump has made people feel they have a voice again; if he goes down to a boring centrist who wants us to do the same stuff we've done for the last 40 years, a lot of people are really going to think their vote doesn't matter and give up on politics or at least the GOP.

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red sox 777 posted...

If a big portion of the population has natural immunity, then herd immunity is much easier to reach.

I am leaning toward the idea of the antibody tests being right and a big share of the population having immunity already, whether by past infection or natural immunity, because the numbers are not surging as high as one would expect otherwise. The virus went from one city in China to massive waves of death across the world in 2 months. The number of active cases in Florida when they reopened was probably higher than the number of active cases in NY when they closed (or, if not, then almost certainly higher than 2 weeks before that). But, we haven't seen the exponential curve we saw earlier on. That suggests that the actual infection rate has been much higher and the fatality rate lower.

Voluntary distancing, masks, partial shutdowns, etc, all reduce R. There appear to currently be many states where R is above 1, but none where it's like 2.5 or whatever it was before we started taking precautions. That's still exponential growth, but it's much slower exponential growth than we were seeing before the shutdown.

I'm aware of no evidence whatsoever to suggest any sort of "natural immunity" (unless you mean truly asymptomatic cases, which we know do still spread the virus, albeit at a lower rate than symptomatic or presymptomatic people).

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SmartMuffin posted...

ding ding ding

When this all shakes out and is over, the IFR is going to be less than 0.5%. It's practically guaranteed.

If you assume that literally every single person in NYC was infected with the coronavirus and that all of those cases are resolved, you would still get a fatality rate of ~0.2%.

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https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1274151535887310855

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Very legal and very cool!

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I agree, this seems like a conflict of interest. I suggest Trump give the job back to Rudy Giuliani instead.

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turbopuns3 posted...

When I first saw the question "have you heard of Juneteenth" my immediate thought was "is that like when Friday the 13th falls in June or something?" Then I looked at the calendar and realized the 13th was on Saturday lol.

Follow up - I texted Happy Juneteenth to my girlfriend who is black and she was like "TBH I never heard of it either or if I ever did, I forgot"

welp haha we all have stuff to learn I guess

Confession: I'm not sure I ever heard of anyone celebrating Juneteenth until the last few weeks. Like, the name sounds vaguely familiar, but I've never heard of anyone doing anything for it until this year. Am I a racist?
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turbopuns3 posted...

Follow up - I texted Happy Juneteenth to my girlfriend who is black and she was like "TBH I never heard of it either or if I ever did, I forgot"

welp haha we all have stuff to learn I guess

That's like literally a pretty fucking weird thing to text. Lol

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Corrik7 posted...

That's like literally a pretty fucking weird thing to text. Lol

Not taking that bait, but feel free to spend time alone pondering why you think so!

turbopuns3 posted...

Not taking that bait, but feel free to spend time alone pondering why you think so!

? What?

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My current workplace celebrates Juneteenth. Hadn't heard of it before I started working here.
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So, anyways, I have never heard anyone ever in my life say Happy Juneteenth ever. So, I saw that post from puns and looked online and see exactly 3 people who said Happy Juneteenth on my Facebook. All 3 are Trump or Die people with "Happy Juneteenth/Freedom Day. This should have always been a holiday!"

I'm confused. Is Happy Juneteenth a thing? I mean, like saying that. I would personally feel a bit like a dick saying Happy Juneteenth to someone.

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Corrik7 posted...

That's like literally a pretty fucking weird thing to text. Lol

Would you consider Happy 4th of July! a pretty fucking weird thing to text?
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Jakyl25 posted...

Would you consider Happy 4th of July! a pretty fucking weird thing to text?

Happy day a possible ancestor of mine for whatever you may know may have stopped enslaving a possible ancestor of yours, if African-American. And if not an African-American, Happy Day our country stopped enslaving African-Americans?

I mean, it seems odd to me.


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Youre framing it wrong I think. People still celebrate Independence Day even if their ancestors werent a part of it.

Juneteenth is the day that the ideals in the Declaration of Independence were fully realized Constitutionally. Another name for it is Emancipation Day. Why not celebrate that?
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Maybe this is a Mandela Effect thing where some people came from a reality where Juneteenth wasnt a thing
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Jakyl25 posted...

Maybe this is a Mandela Effect thing where some people came from a reality where Juneteenth wasnt a thing

I haven't heard anyone ever say the phrase before and now the only people I see saying it are Trump supporters. It doesn't seem like a common thing to say to me. Are you saying this is common where you are?

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No, but Im saying I knew it existed and I have heard of celebrating Juneteenth before
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Xeybozn posted...

Confession: I'm not sure I ever heard of anyone celebrating Juneteenth until the last few weeks. Like, the name sounds vaguely familiar, but I've never heard of anyone doing anything for it until this year. Am I a racist?

Same, though I acknowledge being a racist and have been trying to work on that aspect of myself for years (and probably will continue to do so forever).

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Do you feel comfortable telling an African-American person Happy Juneteenth, Jakyl? Do you think they could find it not very endearing from you even if meant earnestly?

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I've seen "Happy Columbus Day" all my life and that's a lot more fucked up tbqhhhhh

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