Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 333: Biden out The Storm [2020 Edition]

(+) Yeah! (+)

LordoftheMorons posted...

Trafalgar's chief pollster saying definitively that their will be enough "systematic voter fraud" by Dems in PA that Trump will need to beat Biden by 4 or 5 points there to actually win:

https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1323087162938720256

Something tells me this dude is not totally on the level

This is fucking insane

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The Trump campaign has been running hard with the idea that they will win Pennsylvania on election night knowing there likely won't be enough votes to call it on election night.

It is obvious what the evil plan is going to be.

The goalposts have moved from: "We'll win PA" to "We'll win PA in-person election day only voting" to "Well actually even if we're behind 4-5 points in PA that's actually a win still."

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Why would I vote for Jorgensen or Hawkins over Biden when theyre both way worse candidates?

hawkins > biden

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

Smuffin and foolmo are the only libertarians I've encountered, legit would like to know if being this egotistical is just an inherent trait.

muffin has never been a libertarian lol.

foolmo is quite consistent and principled about his libertarianism. unlike most libertarians, he even admits that his libertarian utopia is not realistic (because a libertarian society will always go back to being a statist society in a short amount of time). i don't even necessarily think he's egotistical and that that's where his libertarianism stems from. obtuse and condescending, sure.

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Biden got a few good PA polls this morning (+9 from Morning Consult, and +7/+5 high/low turnout from Monmouth; the latter goes into the 538 model as a +6, but I think assuming high turnout is pretty safe at this point...)

With these polls, Biden has actually passed 90 in the model (as opposed to being somewhere in the [89.5,90) range before) and the accompanying text finally says "clearly favored" instead of favored!

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Anyway, here's my official prediction. I'm going all in, so I'm ready to get burned...!

https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Anyway, here's my official prediction. I'm going all in, so I'm ready to get burned...!

https://www.270towin.com/maps/JndLz

i will always respect the dream

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xp1337 posted...

i will always respect the dream

As I noted in Ngamer's topic, ~413 appears to be the modal outcome on 538...!

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Biden got a few good PA polls this morning (+9 from Morning Consult, and +7/+5 high/low turnout from Monmouth; the latter goes into the 538 model as a +6, but I think assuming high turnout is pretty safe at this point...)

With these polls, Biden has actually passed 90 in the model (as opposed to being somewhere in the [89.5,90) range before) and the accompanying text finally says "clearly favored" instead of favored!

And Trump is now at 9!

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red sox 777 posted...

Republicans used to believe in trickle-down economics. No one does anymore. We tried it. It didn't work.

Republicans and Democrats are still totally pro keynesianism

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red13n posted...

but if you actually ever had a conversation with him about his beliefs, you'd realize that he'd never thought very deeply about the actual impact of his beliefs. He looked at everything on the outside but couldn't justify the deeper impacts of his own beliefs.

I think it's clear how exactly this describes the Democrats ITT, especially those who prefer Trump to 3rd party, or who thinks a few million more Californian votes for Biden will erase fascism.

So the real question is why you give Democrats and Republicans such a hard pass on this? I understand giving your team a pass, but why Republicans? How has the duopoly earned your loyalty so thoroughly?

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538 is saying Biden has a 90% chance and in 2016 they said Hillary had a 70% chance right?

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foolm0r0n posted...

538 is saying Biden has a 90% chance and in 2016 they said Hillary had a 70% chance right?

Their final odds for Hillary were 71.4%

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My prediction:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28

I have zero faith in a lot of states. And Pennsylvania scares the crap out of me.

Edit: Forgot Nebraka's second district.

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Im definitely nervous about PA based on the polls + concentrated effort to cheat there from Trump.

On the other hand (and I know this is actually probably not a great way to look at it), it would be extremely weird for all of these last four years of a continuous clusterfuck, now including a pandemic where over 231k people have died, not to be enough to make up for 70k votes across three states. Thats less than a third of a vote per death!

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Dancedreamer posted...

My prediction:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pwy28

I have zero faith in a lot of states. And Pennsylvania scares the crap out of me.

Edit: Forgot Nebraka's second district.

this but red PA is what I have

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neonreaper posted...

this but red PA is what I have

If that happens, I give up on democracy.

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Dancedreamer posted...

If that happens, I give up on democracy.

After four more years of Trump you may not have a choice

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https://twitter.com/eyokley/status/1323250484715622401/photo/1

This is obviously silly, but it's kind of funny how the Karen's support Biden. And of course Richards support Trump, they're all Dicks.

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Well as a UK expat I gave up on my home country a while ago. So... emigrate if you can?

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well last I checked most borders were closed to us so we literally can't right now, is the fun part :D

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Yet another prediction map:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/XwmOV

Everybody ready for Florida to disappoint us all again?
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323072051402350592
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323283153805484032

just the president of the united states openly supporting political violence just before the election nothing to see here

a reminder that this will not end from election day even if Trump gets trounced

also here's Rubio backing them at a rally last night
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1323273438916710401

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Lol, terrorism

Lol, inciting terrorism

But Trump isnt a fascist!, his supporters lie.

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IBD down to +3 for general election in final poll for Biden nationwide.

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Wait so that means Biden loses in the EC?

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When is the Texas case today?

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+3 is about the breakeven point. I would put Trump as a favorite if it ends up at Biden +3. I think Trump has decent chances at Biden +4 also.

We just got a Trump +1 poll in Pennsylvania today. There's 8 other polls with polling periods that ended the last 2 days between Biden +2 and Biden +7, averaging a bit below Biden +5, but Biden did not break 51% in any of them. There're mostly showing 4-5% or so of the vote not committed to Biden or Trump, and I have a strong suspicion those are going to break hard for Trump.

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Didn't IBD have Trump 2 points ahead of Hillary nationally? They seem to tout it as "Hey we predicted the election!" but they got the popular vote very wrong.

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LinkMarioSamus posted...

Wait so that means Biden loses in the EC?

Its basically 50/50 in that situation.

Interesting to have one pollster (thats not Rasmussen) so far from the average. Lets hope whatever theyre doing different isnt right (incidentally they are projecting Biden low more than Trump high). However, the national polls that were best for Trump in 2016 were not correct. Also they have a two-way poll that is Biden +5, their equivalent 2016 poll was Clinton +1. Just worth keeping in mind.

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Also there was a Biden +9 in PA today, out of that range.

National vote share was always irrelevant anyway, this election was always about Pennsylvania. Literally deciding the fate of the world.

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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323328330821558277?s=21

Definitely something someone does
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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323328330821558277?s=21

Definitely something someone does

release your tax returns and prove it kthx

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323328330821558277?s=21

Definitely something someone does

Also not the same as actually paying taxes.

The capitalization in that tweet is really throwing me for a loop.

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Jakyl25 posted...

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1323328330821558277?s=21

Definitely something someone does

Well actually, most taxes received are considered pre-paid.

When you have the tax withholding coming out of your check that's you pre paying what you anticipate will be the correct amount for your taxes.

And people who are self employed are expected to make quarterly payments towards their anticipated tax obligation in lieu of having taxes withheld automatically.

(source: IRS employee)

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And so i've actually been curious for NYT to just release the damn forms because their is some ambiguity about some of the information they have put forth.

When they said "Trump paid $750 in taxes" does that mean his bottom-line-tax-obligation was $750 that year? And if so, had he already made payments in excess of that amount and thus received a refund?

Or was his bottom-line-tax-obligation like $1,000,750, but because his quarterly payments only totaled $1,000,000 then his amount-due-on-april-15th was $750 despite having paid a total of 1M in taxes?

I'm assuming it's the former, and his bottom-line obligation was $750 due to the losses he claimed, but it isn't clear. But for someone with his income it's not unreasonable to believe that years where he is actually paying into taxes, that he would be PRE paying millions of dollars towards his taxes because....that's how the system works. You pay throughout the year.

You are welcome to just pay in a lump sum on April 15th, and some do. But if your remaining amount to be paid is over a certain threshhold (there is a flat amount as well as a percentage of your total obligation) then you will be assessed a fee for not making payments throughout the year.

(source: I've had to explain this exact concept to many taxpayers)

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No result yet, but things looking up for the Texas case.

Judge Hanen said the Rs have an uphill battle bringing him the case. Upset that he's even having to review it, and stated that the Rs would need to prove that the motive to allow drive in voting in the first place was "Evil".

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

When they said "Trump paid $750 in taxes" does that mean his bottom-line-tax-obligation was $750 that year? And if so, had he already made payments in excess of that amount and thus received a refund?

The first part of this has been confirmed. Don't know about the rest.

That was my assumption, but it would still be nice to see the forms.

And it's still very reasonable to believe that Trump received a large payment from something and his accounts took a percentage of that and send it to the IRS. They might not know during the year that he will be able to successfully negotiate his obligation down to 0 (or near-0) and so if he receives a $10,000,000 royalty check then it's entirely possible the IRS was cut a multi million dollar check anticipating that he might not successfully weasel his way out of paying.

Which is honestly what you *should* do if you come into money. Like if you play the slots (which you should not do, because math) and win a large jackpot then just take 35-40% and send it into the IRS immediately unless the casino automatically does it for you (some do). The worst case scenario is that you pay too much and you get a nice refund when you file, but it's better than the alternative of spending the entirety of a huge jackpot only to now owe over 20% of the now-spent money in taxes.

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But we're getting a bit into the weeds. The bottom line is that even if trump does pay millions of dollars in taxes some years, he also seems to understate his liability as much as (and possibly more than) possible so he still isn't paying his fair share.

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Yes, Trump's statement of prepaying taxes could be truthful and omitting that he also received a large refund of the taxes.

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https://twitter.com/ZoeTillman/status/1323348765407891456?s=19


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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

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Here, have this fun little game.



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UberPyro64 posted...

Here, have this fun little game.

"Homosexuals sexualize my religion"
oh

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My favorite: If Joe Biden wins, taco trucks will touch pick-up trucks.

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ANTIFA WILL BURN DOWN DONALD J. TRUMP

Best one

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Netflix will marry your 401k

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Taco trucks will cheat the suburbs.

I don't think we're getting anymore accurate than that.

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https://twitter.com/radleybalko/status/1323330756626817024?s=21

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