Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 347: The Indian in the Cabinet

(+) Yeah! (+)

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jagmeet Singh streamed Among Us tonight and the chat raised $200k for food banks and help with evictions! Very good cause, especially during this difficult time for everyone.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

Remember that story about a school that was having students get up and walk around every 14 minutes to to avoid the 15 minute rule for social distancing?

Well...

https://twitter.com/haithamahmedmd/status/1332501299317911552?s=21

can confirm.
been like that since april, the addition of plastic to seal everything is newer but places have been adding that in since september and weather hasn't changed much. before that we still had some air but plastic tents with more openings were normal.


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Ive definitely seen them around here in CA too, but I think all have had at least one side open to the air (which is still bad, but better than covering all four at least)

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https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1332705167410651137?s=21

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1332706329752899585?s=21

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Theres actually a group of PA State Sens/Reps trying to pull the state legislature override coup attempt:

https://twitter.com/steve_vladeck/status/1332712157822263297?s=21

They dont have enough people to succeed, but every single one of these fuckers should lose every single election for the rest of their lives.

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I just laugh every time someone says "never in my life did I think I'd see this." what a fucking idiot

The PA Supreme Court has dismissed Kelly's suit to have mail-in ballots invalidated without even hearing it.


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Thread

https://twitter.com/dashaburns/status/1332798207911399424?s=21

Im sure this wouldnt have been totally nonexistent without Trump and the right wing media, but its absolutely disgusting how theyve catalyzed this to deal with Trumps political problems.

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UshiromiyaEva posted...

The PA Supreme Court has dismissed Kelly's suit to have mail-in ballots invalidated without even hearing it.

I just looked up Mike Kelly's wikipedia page, and this sure is a line:

In 2019 he stated that, as a person of Irish and Anglo Saxon descent, he considers himself a person of colora term often used to describe people of non-white backgrounds

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White is a color! Shut up!

/s
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Stupid commenters at Hard Bastard still think Trump can succeed in overturning the election just because he's determined. The nerve of these people!

And then you have Dave Cullen accusing the whole pandemic as a plot to restart the world's economies...holy moly some people are looking too hard into this.

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So I don't know if it was posted, but Nate Cohn finally had enough and basically called all people who deny the elections morons who can't Google.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1332752643488428033

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Thread. Trump really not sounding great, lol.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1333068258862370819?s=19

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Oh, the WI recount is also done BTW. Biden gained an additional 87 vote lead.

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I also had a massive dump today

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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/29/at-least-110-civilians-killed-in-gruesome-nigeria-massacre

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So in the round up. Let's see who had the closest battleground polls.

Wisconsin +.7 Biden
Trafalgar closest at +1 Biden

No one else close

PA +1.2 Biden
Closest was Rasmussen at +3 Biden
Next closest were Susquehanna at +1 Trump

Florida +3.3 Trump
Closest was Trafalgar at +2 Trump
Next closest was Susquehanna and InsiderAdvantage at +1 Trump each

North Carolina +1.3 Trump
Closest was Rasmussen at +1 Trump
Next closest was Trafalgar at +2 Trump and then Emerson at TIE

Michigan +2.8 Biden
InsiderAdvantage was closest at +2 Biden
Next closest was CNBC, Emerson, and Mitchell Research at +7 Biden and Trafalgar at +2 Trump.

Ohio +8.2 Trump
Trafalgar closest at +5 Trump
Rasmussen next closest at +4 Trump. No one else close.

Georgia +.3 Biden
Emerson closest at +1 Trump.
Next closest was PPP at +2 Biden followed by Insider Advantage at +2 Trump.

Arizona +.3 Biden
Marist closest at TIE
Reuters and Emerson next closest at +2 Biden

Texas +5.8 Trump
Siena closest at Trump +4
Umass Lowell next closest at Trump +1

Iowa +8.2 Trump
Des Moines Register closest at +7 Trump
InsiderAdvantage next closest at Trump +2 (none were really close)

Nevada +2.7 Biden
Emerson closest at +2
Siena next cloest at Biden +6


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trafalgar really has become the best of the pollsters right now, though it's hard to explain how. they got 2016 the best, they got 2018 the best, and from the looks of that 2020 is another notch under their belt. dunno if they'd hit the best there but it's damned good results on these close states.


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I thought about it and it's actually pretty simple. Trafalgar isn't a pure pollster. They are also doing modeling analysis. They are trying to predict the outcome, while pure pollsters are predefining a process and simply reporting where that process takes them.

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Mm, that's fair but the difficulty comes in their modeling since I don't think anybody outside of them knows it. They did give Trump too many wins, i believe they had Trump winning the race, but they accounted for trump's voters far better than the usual pollsters. Them doing so well in 2018 midterms is just something that says it ain't a fluke of one candidate either.

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Wanglicious posted...

trafalgar really has become the best of the pollsters right now, though it's hard to explain how. they got 2016 the best, they got 2018 the best, and from the looks of that 2020 is another notch under their belt. dunno if they'd hit the best there but it's damned good results on these close states.

Didnt Trafalgar say Trump was going to win?


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Every state is pretty much in except New York which is at 84% and hasn't reported results in weeks, but has like a million votes left to count, so here are my predictions vs. the results, with the exception of NY and Indiana, which for some reason I forgot to predict in my final list.

The number indicates the difference between actual results and my prediction. So for example, if I predicted Trump +6 and actual result was Trump +8, this would read Trump +2. If I predicted Biden +4 and the result was Biden +1, the chart would read Trump +3.

DC - Biden +4
Hawaii - Trump +2
Massachusetts - Biden +4
Vermont - Biden +7
Maryland - Biden +7
California - Biden +3
Delaware - Trump +2
Rhode Island - Biden +1
Connecticut - Biden +1
Washington - Perfect
Maine-1 - Biden +6
New Jersey - Perfect
Illinois - Biden +2
Oregon - Biden +2
Colorado - Biden +7
Virginia - Biden +2
Maine - Biden +1
New Mexico - Biden +5
Minnesota - Biden +2
Wisconsin - Trump +3
New Hampshire - Biden +4
Michigan - Biden +1
Pennsylvania - Biden +1
Nebraska-2 - Biden +6
Nevada - Biden +3
Maine-2 - Trump +7
North Carolina - Biden +1
Georgia - Biden +2
Florida - Trump +1
Arizona - Biden +2
Ohio - Trump +4
Iowa - Trump +3
Texas - Trump +1
Alaska - Biden +2
South Carolina - Perfect
Montana - Trump +3
Missouri - Trump +1
Nebraska-1 - Biden +1
Mississippi - Perfect
Kansas - Biden +1
Utah - Trump +3
Tennessee - Trump +4
Nebraska - Biden +1
Kentucky - Trump +6
South Dakota - Trump +6
Louisiana - Biden +1
North Dakota - Trump +10
Alabama - Trump +1
Idaho - Trump +7
Arkansas - Trump +2
Oklahoma - Trump +5
West Virginia - Trump +6
Wyoming - Trump +7
Nebraska-3 - Trump +8

National Popular Vote - Biden +1

Swing States Only:

Minnesota - Biden +2
Wisconsin - Trump +3
New Hampshire - Biden +4
Michigan - Biden +1
Pennsylvania - Biden +1
Nevada - Biden +3
North Carolina - Biden +1
Georgia - Biden +2
Florida - Trump +1
Arizona - Biden +2
Ohio - Trump +4
Iowa - Trump +3
Texas - Trump +1

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When 538 analyzed how the various polling firms did relative to each other in 2018, Trafalgar and Ras were both Bottom 5 (of the 31 outfits that had at least 5 released polls in 2018) so idk where any idea that they totally called it then comes from lmao.

538 goes on to note that looking at the listing, that 4/5 of the Bottom 5 use IVR (robo-calls) as their (or part of) method of collecting data and that IVR tends to favor Republicans so they look good when Republicans overperform polls writ-large (as he notes some IVR pollsters did good in 2016) but look terrible when it goes the other way (2018). The same logic would seemingly apply here for 2020.

tbqh takeaway to me seems that polls have yet to figure out how to account for how Trump himself being on the ballot uniquely drives Republican turnout.

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And now, here's how my predictions from Saturday before Election Day went (these were done without looking closely at the polling averages on 538, going by looking at 2016 results and adding in my feelings):

Minnesota - Biden +2
Wisconsin - Trump +3
New Hampshire - Biden +3
Michigan - Biden +1
Pennsylvania - Biden +1
Nevada - Biden +2
North Carolina - Perfect
Florida - Trump +1
Arizona - Biden +2
Georgia - Biden +3
Ohio - Trump +4
Iowa - Trump +3
Texas - Perfect

National Popular Vote - Perfect

Slightly better than my Election Day predictions, and miles better than the polls!

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ChaosTonyV4 posted...

Didnt Trafalgar say Trump was going to win?

He's looking at the percentages.

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xp1337 posted...

so idk where any idea that they totally called it then comes from lmao.

Real clear politics creator said it.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/11/10/pollster_who_got_it_right_in_2016_does_it_again_138621.html

Relevant paragraphs:

Two years later, Cahalys method once again proved solid. In one of the most polled races of the cycle, Trafalgar stood alone as the only polling firm to correctly show a Ron DeSantis gubernatorial victory in Florida as well as Rick Scott winning the Senate race there. (Both narrow outcomes will likely result in recounts.)

Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Texas and West Virginia (as of this writing Arizona remains undecided), making it the most accurate pollster of the cycle among those firms that polled multiple Senate and governor races.

Now if that's wrong fair enough. But that's where it's from. And I'd note the qualifier there but for major poll firms it won't make a difference. For smaller ones though, certainly.

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xp1337 posted...

When 538 analyzed how the various polling firms did relative to each other in 2018, Trafalgar and Ras were both Bottom 5 (of the 31 outfits that had at least 5 released polls in 2018) so idk where any idea that they totally called it then comes from lmao.

538 goes on to note that looking at the listing, that 4/5 of the Bottom 5 use IVR (robo-calls) as their (or part of) method of collecting data and that IVR tends to favor Republicans so they look good when Republicans overperform polls writ-large (as he notes some IVR pollsters did good in 2016) but look terrible when it goes the other way (2018). The same logic would seemingly apply here for 2020.

tbqh takeaway to me seems that polls have yet to figure out how to account for how Trump himself being on the ballot uniquely drives Republican turnout.

Honestly, the fact that there was a study that showed people with zero social connections voted overwhelmingly for Trump might explain it.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1333153325181788164

Kamala one step away!

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Twists his ankle goes to hospital.
Gets covid in hospital.
Can't be President January so Kamala takes charge with the ultimate comeback.


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Corrik7 posted...

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1333153325181788164

Kamala one step away!

The Clinton crime family strikes again!

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Wasnt Trafalgar bad in 2018? Like RCP is picking out a select few races where Republicans won but I think Trafalgar was by far the worst in the house races.

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dog had motive

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/28/us/Biden-cat-dogs-German-shepherd.html

INVESTIGATE?

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Suprak the Stud posted...

Wasnt Trafalgar bad in 2018? Like RCP is picking out a select few races where Republicans won but I think Trafalgar was by far the worst in the house races.

Like I said, when 538 analyzed the 2017-2019 cycle, Trafalgar was Bottom 5. 27th of 31. Ahead of only Ipsos, Ras, and then two outfits I think must be minor - Carroll Strategies and Dixie Strategies.

538's 2018 Polling/Pollster postmortem: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/

Also as noted, the postmortem seems to think there's something to the IVR methodology that they employ that explains it because they show further on when they instead analyze accuracy by methodology rather than individual pollsters, IVR shows a big bias towards Republicans over any other method. (And that in instances where Republicans outperform overall polling this ends up making them look good)

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The Trafalgar dude was literally saying that there was going to be like 3-4 points worth of voter fraud in PA right before the election. He's a hack who got luckily that the polling error was in his favor.

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Going to go ahead and post a smattering of the emails my grandpa regularly CCs to my entire family.

Fwd: A Disaster - Sun, Nov 15, 2:24 PM

Looks like a tsunami. Complete destruction of the Democrat party, many high level officials slammed in jail, a horrific black eye on the USA. I have at least a half dozen sources that agree with this conclusion. I know that the people, the proletariat, who voted for Biden are not crooks - just have extremely poor political judgment. In fact, they have to be considered political halfwits. But things are about to change. Maybe Trump gets a third term. The USA is going to survive!

Fwd: President Trump Won by a Landslide, We Are Going to Prove It: Trump Lawyer Sidney Powell - Fri, Nov 20, 11:10 AM (9 days ago)

Wahoo. The Fat is in the Fire. Just in case you missed it. Try to find it on Fake News or in your favorite newpaper. Soros is laughing in his cups.

Fwd: HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING AT FOX NEWS - 6:32 PM (24 minutes ago)

I hope ya'll have not been bamboozled recently. The Media and the Dems are hoping for fools. Not me and I hope not you. I am now a regular NewsMax watcher and would watch OAN if Comcast delivered it. Am thinking about switching to Direct TV.

This election is the biggest hoax ever perpetuated on the US population. Its going to be difficult to turn it soon, BUT IT WILL BE TURNED.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

The Trafalgar dude was literally saying that there was going to be like 3-4 points worth of voter fraud in PA right before the election. He's a hack who got luckily that the polling error was in his favor.

What does that mean? 3-4 points of voter fraud that ends up in the results or doesn't?

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red sox 777 posted...

What does that mean? 3-4 points of voter fraud that ends up in the results or doesn't?

I think that ends up in the results? It sounded like he was giving himself an excuse for being wrong if the polls had been right.

I think it was an appearance on Hannity a few days before the election.

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LordoftheMorons posted...

I think that ends up in the results? It sounded like he was giving himself an excuse for being wrong if the polls had been right.

I think it was an appearance on Hannity a few days before the election.

Well, turns out he didn't need an excuse because his predictions were accurate. It's plenty fair to ignore the hedging and just look at the predictions. Or look at mine, which I've posted here and are miles better than the polling average and have been 2 elections straight.

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I mean, in retrospect it doesn't seem crazy to say that Trump drives some turnout that is missed by the polls (the lack of social/institutional trust and zero social connection work that Rock referenced may provide an explanation) that mentally adding a few points to Trump's margin on the polls no longer seems entirely outlandish.

I think one of Trafalgar or Ras started doing that under the pretense of "shy Trump voters" and while I and a few others rolled our eyes at that - in terms of getting the result that may have been my mistake. I would still however maintain that doing that to your own polls means you're no longer polling though and it's disingenuous to present your findings as that. Because at that point you're no longer polling. It may be that whatever prior you're inserting turns out to be accurate but call it what it is and don't try to sell it as what it's not.

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Oh, right. Since we're talking pollster ratings and such, it occurs to me that I never posted the not-the-guru results from back when we all were sharing predictions here. I posted it in Ngamer's topic but never here. Probably ought to since these are archived.

~~~

I also went and made up a map of the "Board 8 cookie." Here it is: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AVXvm

The cookie was close. It was Biden 291-247 with misses in only GA and ME-2. Both of which were in the Top 4 most divided picks (NC - the most split state for the board; called correctly by a margin of a single user, and NE-2 which was tied with ME-2.)

Final result: Biden wins 306-232

Board 8 Overall metrics:
Average EV result: 315-223
Median EV result: 308-230

Congrats to Inviso for coming the closest being off of the final result by only 1 electoral vote. With honorable mentions to Luster and sniperdog for being off by only 2, as well as actual guru winner azuarc who rounds out the "off by only single-digits club" with a miss of 7 EVs.

By margin (calculated by the absolute value of distance from Biden's EV):

1. Inviso: Off by 1 (305-233)
T-2. Luster: Off by 2 (308-230)
T-2. sniperdog: Off by 2 (308-230)
4. azuarc: Off by 7 (299-239)
*Board 8 Cookie: Off by 15 (291-247)
5. ZeldaTPLink: Off by 15 (321-217)
6. Corrik: Off by 16 (290-248)
7. Ashethan: Off by 18 (288-250)
8. Tony: Off by 25 (281-257)
9. Dancedreamer: Off by 27 (279-259)
T-10. ESY16: Off by 29 (335-203)
T-10. hockeydude: Off by 29 (335-203)
12. gravy: Off by 30 (336-202)
13. changmas: Off by 32 (274-264)
14. charmander: Off by 34 (272-266)
15. Suprak: Off by 35 (271-267)
16. Moogle: Off by 36 (270-268)
17. Ulti: Off by 36 (270-268)
18. fuming: Off by 37 (269-269)
19. Xeybozn: Off by 38 (344-194)
T-20. xp: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-20. Pyro: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-22. neonreaper: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-22. meche: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-24. Chris: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. Crossfiyah: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. PrinceKaro: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. red sox: Off by 54 (252-286)
28. foolmo: Off by 62 (368-170)
29. masterplum: Off by 82 (388-150)
30. MikeTavish: Off by 89 (395-143)
31. LotM: Off by 107 (413-125)

~~~

By correctly called states/districts. I go by state first, districts called correctly make up something of a tiebreaker within. I considered counting them equally as states but I don't know if that felt right. Hopefully I caught the errors I made here but I am not 100% confident, by the end of this I kind of felt my eyes glazing over as I checked it against everyone's calls.

Congrats to Corrik, gravy, and ZeldaTPLink for being the 3 users to get 49/50 states correct and in particular Corrik for being the only one of the trio to get the correct congressional district split (and thus the only one to outright beat the cookie.) Only 6 of us got the correct congressional district split overall: Corrik, Dancedreamer, fuming, Ashethan, azuarc, and changmas.

On average Board 8 called 47.35 states correctly. (And exactly 1 of the congressional districts. The 6 who called the split correctly being offset by the 6 who missed both.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

49/50 (3 users + Board 8 Cookie)

2/2 Districts
Corrik (Missed GA)

1/2 Districts
*Board 8 Cookie (Missed GA, ME-2)
gravy (Missed: FL, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
ZeldaTPLink (Missed: NC, NE-2, ME-2)

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48/50 (12 users)

2/2 Districts
Dancedreamer (Missed: AZ, GA)

1/2 Districts
xp (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
Suprak (Missed: PA, GA, ME-2)
Chris (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Crossfiyah (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Tony (Missed: WI, GA, ME-2)
Pyro (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
PrinceKaro (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
Luster (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)
Inviso (Missed: NC, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
Moogle (Missed: PA, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
sniperdog (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)

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47/50 (11 users)

2/2 Districts
fuming (Missed: WI, AZ, GA)
Ashethan (Missed: PA, GA, OH)
azuarc (Missed: NV, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
Xeybozn (Missed: NC, GA, TX, ME-2)
charmander (Missed: NV, AZ, GA, NE-2)
ESY16 (Missed: NC, GA, FL, ME-2)
neonreaper (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
Ulti (Missed: MN, AZ, GA, ME-2)
hockeydude (Missed: GA, TX, IA, ME-2)
meche (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)

0/2 Districts
masterplum (NC, TX, FL, NE-2, ME-2)

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46/50 (3 users)

2/2 Districts
changmas (Missed: PA, AZ, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
red sox (Missed: NV, PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
MikeTavish (Missed: NC, TX, FL, IA, ME-2)

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45/50 (2 users)

1/2 Districts
LotM (Missed: NC, TX, FL, OH, IA, ME-2)
foolmo (Missed: NC, GA, TX, OH, IA, ME-2)

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https://twitter.com/ap/status/1333179630338125834?s=21

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xp1337 posted...

Oh, right. Since we're talking pollster ratings and such, it occurs to me that I never posted the not-the-guru results from back when we all were sharing predictions here. I posted it in Ngamer's topic but never here. Probably ought to since these are archived.

~~~

I also went and made up a map of the "Board 8 cookie." Here it is: https://www.270towin.com/maps/AVXvm

The cookie was close. It was Biden 291-247 with misses in only GA and ME-2. Both of which were in the Top 4 most divided picks (NC - the most split state for the board; called correctly by a margin of a single user, and NE-2 which was tied with ME-2.)

Final result: Biden wins 306-232

Board 8 Overall metrics:
Average EV result: 315-223
Median EV result: 308-230

Congrats to Inviso for coming the closest being off of the final result by only 1 electoral vote. With honorable mentions to Luster and sniperdog for being off by only 2, as well as actual guru winner azuarc who rounds out the "off by only single-digits club" with a miss of 7 EVs.

By margin (calculated by the absolute value of distance from Biden's EV):

1. Inviso: Off by 1 (305-233)
T-2. Luster: Off by 2 (308-230)
T-2. sniperdog: Off by 2 (308-230)
4. azuarc: Off by 7 (299-239)
*Board 8 Cookie: Off by 15 (291-247)
5. ZeldaTPLink: Off by 15 (321-217)
6. Corrik: Off by 16 (290-248)
7. Ashethan: Off by 18 (288-250)
8. Tony: Off by 25 (281-257)
9. Dancedreamer: Off by 27 (279-259)
T-10. ESY16: Off by 29 (335-203)
T-10. hockeydude: Off by 29 (335-203)
12. gravy: Off by 30 (336-202)
13. changmas: Off by 32 (274-264)
14. charmander: Off by 34 (272-266)
15. Suprak: Off by 35 (271-267)
16. Moogle: Off by 36 (270-268)
17. Ulti: Off by 36 (270-268)
18. fuming: Off by 37 (269-269)
19. Xeybozn: Off by 38 (344-194)
T-20. xp: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-20. Pyro: Off by 45 (351-187)
T-22. neonreaper: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-22. meche: Off by 48 (258-280)
T-24. Chris: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. Crossfiyah: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. PrinceKaro: Off by 54 (360-178)
T-24. red sox: Off by 54 (252-286)
28. foolmo: Off by 62 (368-170)
29. masterplum: Off by 82 (388-150)
30. MikeTavish: Off by 89 (395-143)
31. LotM: Off by 107 (413-125)

~~~

By correctly called states/districts. I go by state first, districts called correctly make up something of a tiebreaker within. I considered counting them equally as states but I don't know if that felt right. Hopefully I caught the errors I made here but I am not 100% confident, by the end of this I kind of felt my eyes glazing over as I checked it against everyone's calls.

Congrats to Corrik, gravy, and ZeldaTPLink for being the 3 users to get 49/50 states correct and in particular Corrik for being the only one of the trio to get the correct congressional district split (and thus the only one to outright beat the cookie.) Only 6 of us got the correct congressional district split overall: Corrik, Dancedreamer, fuming, Ashethan, azuarc, and changmas.

On average Board 8 called 47.35 states correctly. (And exactly 1 of the congressional districts. The 6 who called the split correctly being offset by the 6 who missed both.)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

49/50 (3 users + Board 8 Cookie)

2/2 Districts
Corrik (Missed GA)

1/2 Districts
*Board 8 Cookie (Missed GA, ME-2)
gravy (Missed: FL, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
ZeldaTPLink (Missed: NC, NE-2, ME-2)

-------------------
48/50 (12 users)

2/2 Districts
Dancedreamer (Missed: AZ, GA)

1/2 Districts
xp (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
Suprak (Missed: PA, GA, ME-2)
Chris (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Crossfiyah (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)
Tony (Missed: WI, GA, ME-2)
Pyro (Missed: NC, FL, ME-2)
PrinceKaro (Missed: NC, TX, ME-2)

0/2 Districts
Luster (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)
Inviso (Missed: NC, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
Moogle (Missed: PA, GA, NE-2, ME-2)
sniperdog (Missed: GA, OH, NE-2, ME-2)

-------------------
47/50 (11 users)

2/2 Districts
fuming (Missed: WI, AZ, GA)
Ashethan (Missed: PA, GA, OH)
azuarc (Missed: NV, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
Xeybozn (Missed: NC, GA, TX, ME-2)
charmander (Missed: NV, AZ, GA, NE-2)
ESY16 (Missed: NC, GA, FL, ME-2)
neonreaper (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
Ulti (Missed: MN, AZ, GA, ME-2)
hockeydude (Missed: GA, TX, IA, ME-2)
meche (Missed: PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)

0/2 Districts
masterplum (NC, TX, FL, NE-2, ME-2)

-------------------
46/50 (3 users)

2/2 Districts
changmas (Missed: PA, AZ, NC, GA)

1/2 Districts
red sox (Missed: NV, PA, AZ, GA, NE-2)
MikeTavish (Missed: NC, TX, FL, IA, ME-2)

-------------------
45/50 (2 users)

1/2 Districts
LotM (Missed: NC, TX, FL, OH, IA, ME-2)
foolmo (Missed: NC, GA, TX, OH, IA, ME-2)

I was a few thousand votes from a perfect prediction completely. = /

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xp1337 posted...

I mean, in retrospect it doesn't seem crazy to say that Trump drives some turnout that is missed by the polls (the lack of social/institutional trust and zero social connection work that Rock referenced may provide an explanation) that mentally adding a few points to Trump's margin on the polls no longer seems entirely outlandish.

I think one of Trafalgar or Ras started doing that under the pretense of "shy Trump voters" and while I and a few others rolled our eyes at that - in terms of getting the result that may have been my mistake. I would still however maintain that doing that to your own polls means you're no longer polling though and it's disingenuous to present your findings as that. Because at that point you're no longer polling. It may be that whatever prior you're inserting turns out to be accurate but call it what it is and don't try to sell it as what it's not.

I don't know if I agree. Here is why. The polls were stating they couldn't get people to return data in large swathes of areas that are very likely republican areas. The PA map was like half the state across the middle of it and areas all around. Now, since they can't get data, they work around those areas to get their polls. While these nonsense polls as you call them just considers them a likely republican shy voter.

So one assumes data and one works without data. Which is correct there? Idk. I know the assume data one seems to end up fairing better in battleground states a lot though.

I mean, one A+ poll had Wisconsin +17 Biden. 0.o

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https://twitter.com/RepPaulMitchell/status/1333214085341712388

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@Corrik7 I'm finally un-warned from that other topic, lol. How weird.

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What did you get warned for?

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Twitter Belle Delphine boobs

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i used two words in a row.

I used them in a row in sentences that didn't have anything to do with NSFW content, but I guess those two words in that order are off limits now? :shrug:

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Forceful_Dragon posted...

@Corrik7 I'm finally un-warned from that other topic, lol. How weird.

Jesus. Those moderations are beyond dumb.

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First reply to my grandpa's family email about FOX News 'betraying' Trump:

Great info! We can't give up! I haven't watched Fox News or any other main media since November 3rd. We need to be strong and supportive! Our Democracy depends on it! I downloaded the OANN app and that is my source for objective truths! I love this country and I believe in President Trump! It's not over by a long shot!!!

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