Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 352: Cool Aid, Man

(+) Yeah! (+)

Corrik7 posted...

A lot could change their minds if the job makes it mandatory and they are faced with losing their job if they don't.

But their religious freedom lol.

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Early voting while obviously a record for the Runoffs due to the nature of this election cycle changes is way down from the general election early voting numbers.

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Somehow in this mess of a Senate fight, I didn't realize the $600 checks were not being delayed as a result. Mine deposits on the 4th.

Yeah theyre dated for the 4th for everyone I think.
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Jakyl25 posted...

Yeah theyre dated for the 4th for everyone I think.

Nah. Some people already got them.

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So they've updated their vaccine pace prediction from 20M by first week of January to 30M by end of January.

But remember, we're well on pace!

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StealThisSheen posted...

So they've updated their vaccine pace prediction from 20M by first week of January to 30M by end of January.

But remember, we're well on pace!

Looks like the actual statement is they expect another 30 million doses in january and then another 50 million in february.

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Census Bureau doesn't think it can get the apportionment numbers done until after Biden is inaugurated which would allow Biden to rescind Trump's plan to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-census-2020-8dd78fbb0460c377cde074e3c8d6f967

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red13n posted...

Looks like the actual statement is they expect another 30 million doses in january and then another 50 million in february.

Okay but it's "another" 30 million on top of the... 2 million we have now?

So 32M by end of January isn't much better!

And either way it means they don't expect to hit the target 20M by first week unless they're expecting to only do like 10-12M the rest of the month, so it's still another shifting of the timeline.

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StealThisSheen posted...

Okay but it's "another" 30 million on top of the... 2 million we have now?

So 32M by end of January isn't much better!

And either way it means they don't expect to hit the target 20M by first week unless they're expecting to only do like 10-12M the rest of the month, so it's still another shifting of the timeline.

yeah, but it's a smaller shift than the others, so things are good
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In other news, people suck

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1344454695465713664

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StealThisSheen posted...

In other news, people suck

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1344454695465713664

Hope they're charged

(Presumably they could at least be charged for destruction of ~$10k in property, but obviously this is much worse than smashing a car or something)

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StealThisSheen posted...

Okay but it's "another" 30 million on top of the... 2 million we have now?

So 32M by end of January isn't much better!

And either way it means they don't expect to hit the target 20M by first week unless they're expecting to only do like 10-12M the rest of the month, so it's still another shifting of the timeline.

It sounds like its in addition to the 20M they have going out.

Fauci was on an interview in California with the governor, reiterated he still expects vaccination to be available to the general population within about 3-4 months.

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StealThisSheen posted...

In other news, people suck

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1344454695465713664

And yeah this is a real problem going out. We've had dumb shit like this and instances of rogue providers attempting to sell vaccinations to wealthy clients.

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red13n posted...

Fauci was on an interview in California with the governor, reiterated he still expects vaccination to be available to the general population within about 3-4 months.

Really? Because he just said yesterday or today that they're behind schedule and he just "hopes" we can get on pace.

"We certainly are not at the numbers that we wanted to be at the end of December," Fauci said. "You heard talking about 40 million doses for 20 million people. I mean, even if you undercount 2 million as an undercount, how much undercount could it be? So we are below where we want to be."

During his chat with New Day, Fauci also spoke candidly about whether or not Americans should have confidence that the current plan in place will work. "Well, we have to see," he said. "As not being responsible myself for the rollout, I can't personally guarantee that we're gonna catch up."

"I hope we do," he continued. "The people who are responsible for it, are really on it. The question is: Are they going to be able to get back to the pace that we set early on? And again, I hope we can."

Like, he's just flat out saying we're well below pace, there, so I think that sorta ends the "We're still well on pace!" argument.

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StealThisSheen posted...

Really? Because he just said yesterday or today that they're behind schedule and he just "hopes" we can get on pace.

"Let's say in April, it will be what I call open season, namely, anybody who wants to get vaccinated can get vaccinated," Fauci said in the Facebook interview. "If we then diligently vaccinate people in April, May, June, July, then we will gradually and noticeably get a degree of protection approaching herd immunity."

That was his interview today.

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red13n posted...

"Let's say in April, it will be what I call open season, namely, anybody who wants to get vaccinated can get vaccinated," Fauci said in the Facebook interview. "If we then diligently vaccinate people in April, May, June, July, then we will gradually and noticeably get a degree of protection approaching herd immunity."

That was his interview today.

Read the whole thing. That's a hypothetical scenario that he's saying could happen IF they turned things around and sped up the pace. That's IF they catch up, he's not saying he thinks they will.

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StealThisSheen posted...

Read the whole thing. That's a hypothetical scenario that he's saying could happen IF they turned things around and sped up the pace. That's IF they catch up, he's not saying he thinks they will.

So theyve delivered 11 million doses, and there have been about two to three million people who have been vaccinated. Thats below the 20/20 [proposal]. But as we get into January, the feeling is that were going to gain momentum to be able to catch up.

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"The feeling"

While he, himself, is saying there's no guarantee.

Dude, we're not on pace unless things change pretty drastically. I don't know why you're still on this hill.

Like, this is all that needs to be said:

I believe if we do it correctly, we will be there by the early fall.

If. If. That's a big if, the way things are going right now.

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StealThisSheen posted...

"The feeling"

While he, himself, is saying there's no guarantee.

Dude, we're not on pace unless things change pretty drastically. I don't know why you're still on this hill.

He uses feeling as in he thinks its going to happen.

Its a ramp up process, and its getting taken over by a different administration in a few weeks. We are perfectly capable of getting the necessary vaccines out by around June.

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StealThisSheen posted...

I believe if we do it correctly, we will be there by the early fall.

This quote is in relation to a return to normalcy, not directly related to vaccine timing. Remember that after herd immunity via vaccine is reached we still need to reduce R, which will take some time.

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red13n posted...

He uses feeling as in he thinks its going to happen.

I don't think so since in every other occurrence he says he doesn't know/can't guarantee. He uses "feeling" as in that's what the people in charge are saying, but the people in charge so far have been pretty incompetent.

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StealThisSheen posted...

I don't think so since in every other occurrence he says he doesn't know/can't guarantee. He uses "feeling" as in that's what the people in charge are saying, but the people in charge so far have been pretty incompetent.

Did you watch the video or just read the quote?

I actually watched the interview with Newsom on TV so I've been piecemealing these quotes together.

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I'm not going to continue filling up this topic with a dumb argument that's really only happening because you don't want to admit "We're still well on pace!" was a really dumb thing to say.

There are exact quotes from him saying we're behind schedule, that he does not know if we'll get on schedule since he's not in charge, that he can't guarantee we'll get on schedule, and that things can improve IF we get on schedule. You're trying to paint it as this guy saying "We're going to be there in April" when he's not. He's specifically refusing to actually give his own call on it because he's not in a place where he can do that.

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He was always more pessimistic about vaccine timing than the administration, so now that it beat his earlier prediction(Again, we're already in borderline miracle territory with this vaccine), I'm not sure why you would think hes caving about timing now.

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StealThisSheen posted...

I'm not going to continue filling up this topic with a dumb argument that's really only happening because you don't want to admit "We're still well on pace!" was a really dumb thing to say.

There are exact quotes from him saying we're behind schedule, that he does not know if we'll get on schedule since he's not in charge, that he can't guarantee we'll get on schedule, and that things can improve IF we get on schedule. You're trying to paint it as this guy saying "We're going to be there in April" when he's not. He's specifically refusing to actually give his own call on it because he's not in a place where he can do that.

WE GET TO THE PRIORITY PEOPLE, IT LIKELY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF APRIL. I WOULD SAY END OF MARCH, BEGINNING OF APRIL. SO LET'S SAY IN APRIL, IT WILL BE WHAT I CALL OPEN SEASON,

He even backs off to the pessimistic scenario here. Again, I think you are forgetting that with the "June" hopeful timeline we were already ahead of the curve. The rollout sucks but we got these vaccines early. It is very likely going to ramp up. all these doom and gloom "its going to take years" takes are just being facetious.

And again, we'll have an administration that is actually hands on and gives a shit in a few weeks. And I cant stress enough that we're already ahead of expectations just by having vaccines at this point.

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red13n posted...

I'm not sure why you would think hes caving about timing now.

Because he LITERALLY DID

During his chat with New Day, Fauci also spoke candidly about whether or not Americans should have confidence that the current plan in place will work. "Well, we have to see," he said. "As not being responsible myself for the rollout, I can't personally guarantee that we're gonna catch up."

The rest is him giving what COULD happen if we get back on the initial timeline. He. Is. Not. Saying. We. Definitely. Will.

He sure as hell would not be using the words "catch up" if we were on pace. What are you not getting about this?

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Your referring to a different interview than I am. And one that was not as recent.

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StealThisSheen posted...

He sure as hell would not be using the words "catch up" if we were on pace. What are you not getting about this?

No one thinks we are on pace. But we have plenty of time to ramp up. Current "pace" would literally take years. But all the doom articles claiming this is what the pace is going to stay at are literally just clickbait.

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Wang's right. At this point, you're ignoring all logic and just assuming Biden is going to magically fix everything day one, which is not a safe assumption at all. You don't want to accept there are actually problems because you assume they're just going to all go away. We can't assume that until they actually do, because right now our pacing sucks big time and shows literally zero signs of improving.

The interview I'm quoting was from yesterday. You're attributing meaning to other quotes from him that he himself is not trying to convey. Fauci is in no way trying to say "Yes, April for sure." Not at all. No way.

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StealThisSheen posted...

The interview I'm quoting was from yesterday. You're attributing meaning to other quotes from him that he himself is not trying to convey. Fauci is in no way trying to say "Yes, April for sure." Not at all. No way.

The interview you are quoting is from Tuesday, the interview I am referring to was on Wednesday.

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red13n posted...

No one thinks we are on pace.

What.

You said that! You! That's what started the whole debate, that you said we're on pace and didn't back down from that!

red13n posted...

We're still more than on pace to beat that especially with production and distribution ramping up.

I just can't


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red13n posted...

The interview you are quoting is from Tuesday, the interview I am referring to was on Wednesday.

So you're trying to argue that something changed between Tuesday and Wednesday (it didn't) that made Fauci suddenly mean "Yes, April for sure, bet the house on it" (he didn't)

Okay I think we're done.

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StealThisSheen posted...

Wang's right. At this point, you're ignoring all logic and just assuming Biden is going to magically fix everything day one, which is not a safe assumption at all. You don't want to accept there are actually problems because you assume they're just going to all go away. We can't assume that until they actually do, because right now our pacing sucks big time and shows literally zero signs of improving.

We're not entirely sure on the pacing right now because holiday lag is messing things up. We'll likely know in 3-4 weeks how its going more than anything.

But I mean, the next administration can't possibly be worse than this one. We know that Trump literally doesn't give a shit and its being handled 100% by others. So at least it will get attention from the top down once the transfer of power happens

And again, there are problems. No one is denying this. But we are already ahead of all expectations just by having a vaccine right now. I'm mostly just tired of the doom and gloom articles saying this is going to take years when it very clearly isn't. The pace -is- going to ramp up, especially when we're outside of scramble mode. We are like 3 weeks from not even knowing who the hell was going to get the first doses of the vaccine.

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StealThisSheen posted...

So you're trying to argue that something changed between Tuesday and Wednesday (it didn't) that made Fauci suddenly mean "Yes, April for sure, bet the house on it" (he didn't)

Okay I think we're done.

No, but it makes it difficult when we are referring to two different interviews.His quotes in both aren't particularly different, but I have more direct inflection from actually seeing the second.

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Anyway, the vaccine has been the one bit of good news we've gotten on the virus since, well, ever basically. As I've said, the fact we have anyone vaccinated at this point would have been considered a miracle to us just a few months ago.

We're not in the pace we'd like but there isn't enough to say this is going to be a total "year long" disaster like many are trying to claim.

Forgive me if I'd like to be optimistic that the one parachute we finally have deploying isn't going to snap.

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What I am trying to say is, I am naturally pessimistic as hell, let me be optimistic and hold just a little bit of hope that for once we wont fuck something up too badly because life has been pretty fucking shitty for these last 9 months.

And from a realist point of view, we are early enough that we can't definitively say one way or another that vaccine administration is fucked beyond repair. It is "too early to call", basically.

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red13n posted...

No, but it makes it difficult when we are referring to two different interviews.His quotes in both aren't particularly different, but I have more direct inflection from actually seeing the second.

Okay so I just watched that portion of it, and right before your quote, he literally says "Let's assume, Governor, that we do catch up." Thus the April timeline he lays out is based on catching up, which is what I've been arguing. It's an assumption.

It's fine to be optimistic, but let's not try to refuse people that are being realistic in the process.

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StealThisSheen posted...

It's fine to be optimistic, but let's not try to refuse people that are being realistic in the process.

Thats not the realist POV either though. Thats just the pessimistic take. Because he also states in multiple quotes that he feels we can catch up. and he took the most pessimistic timeline on his april expectation.

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If you want the true optmistic POV Right now.

All this vaccine talk is going to be made pointless because the population has fucked themselves so badly with the virus that we'll have so much natural immunity(And population culling via death) in these next 6 months that the amount of vaccine needed for herd immunity could considerably be on the lower end.

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No, the problem is it IS the realist POV because that's literally where we are right now. His April expectation, in his own words, is based on the optimistic view of "If we catch up." Pessimistic view would be to, say, think Trump purposely sabotages things further before he leaves office.

Right now, our pacing sucks. Right now, literally nothing is being done to fix it. Right now, there are no plans to fix it. We are hoping Biden fixes it quickly. We have nothing to tell us he can or will. Thus, the realistic POV right now is "This is fucked up and something needs to be done or else it won't get better." Denying things are fucked up right now helps nothing.

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red13n posted...

Thats not the realist POV either though. Thats just the pessimistic take. Because he also states in multiple quotes that he feels we can catch up. and he took the most pessimistic timeline on his april expectation.

Also to reiterate, the realist take is not "we are fine" either.

The realist take is somewhere in between and that not enough time has passed to make a definitive call on "Recoverable" or "Unrecoverable" on the fuck ups so far.

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Nobody is saying we CAN'T recover at all. They're just realistically saying that the chances of recovering to that optimistic timeline are very slim right now, and we should expect a good few month delay at the least.

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xp1337 posted...

Census Bureau doesn't think it can get the apportionment numbers done until after Biden is inaugurated which would allow Biden to rescind Trump's plan to exclude undocumented immigrants from apportionment.

https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-joe-biden-census-2020-8dd78fbb0460c377cde074e3c8d6f967

That sounds vaguely illegal to take something out of it's appropriate window and allow a different administration to take action on something that shouldn't have been in their window.

But,

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StealThisSheen posted...

Nobody is saying we CAN'T recover at all. They're just realistically saying that the chances of recovering to that optimistic timeline are very slim right now, and we should expect a good few month delay at the least.

Trying to extrapolate "first 3 weeks went bad" to "few months delay" is not necessarily true either.

We basically fucked up a very small % of the rollout. Which also happened to fall in a holiday period where this country slows down to a crawl(Causing both reporting and logistical/manpower lag).

This doesn't necessarily extrapolate out to continued fuck ups of the same magnitude.

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red13n posted...

This doesn't necessarily extrapolate out to continued fuck ups of the same magnitude.

It does when the big fuck up (Telling states "You're on your own, figure it out!" about distribution) hasn't been rectified in any way and likely won't be until, in the most optimistic sense, the Biden admin has time to get in there and figure things out.

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Corrik7 posted...

That sounds vaguely illegal to take something out of it's appropriate window and allow a different administration to take action on something that shouldn't have been in their window.

But,

The Trump administration did everything in their power to fuck with the census and shouldn't be shocked when all those things didn't get done in a timely manner.

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StealThisSheen posted...

It does when the big fuck up (Telling states "You're on your own, figure it out!" about distribution) hasn't been rectified in any way and likely won't be until, in the most optimistic sense, the Biden admin has time to get in there and figure things out.

Sure. But this discounts that states also will figure some of the logistical stuff out in the meantime.

We get to watch fun things like Florida seniors lining up for a console launch.

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What it comes down to is we need a plan to roll this out efficiently across the board. There has been no plan, there is no plan in the works, and we're stuck hoping the Biden admin somehow puts one together quickly.

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red13n posted...

Sure. But this discounts that states also will figure some of the logistical stuff out in the meantime.

We get to watch fun things like Florida seniors lining up for a console launch.

It's not discounting that because that's, again, a hope and an assumption, which is optimistic, not realistic. The realistic view is we don't know if or when states will figure it out, and until there's a plan, there should be no expectation that they all just will in any quick amount of time.

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