Board 8 > Politics Containment Topic 353: Sewage Runoff

(+) Yeah! (+)

The Needle is drunk.

The Needle understands probabilities. 53% is a toss up. 85% is an advantage but nowhere near insurmountable.

---

Cohn - Democrats averaging as polls predicted in early votes, 4.5 points higher than expected in mail votes.

But with so little reporting in so far these numbers are meaningless.

Why do this to myself!

Warnock seems to be a half point ahead of where ossof is.

---

Very disturbing article on potential far right violence in DC tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/BrandyZadrozny/status/1346609767855386624

---

Some quick back and forth looking at turnout seems to be positive for democrats. Looking like Democrats in Rural counties are falling off their November numbers less than Republicans

---

The Proud Boys leader was caught in DC with extended magazines for his illegal carry weapon when he was arrested for burning that BLM flag at the church. There is every reason to be extremely worried.

Both elections are now tilting towards the Dems on the Needle (+0.9/+0.7 Warnock/Ossoff)

---

At the end of the day, I may be idelogically semi-conservative, but Republicans losing is good for America. I'm all for it

---

Keeping my hopes down, easier for the sanity.

---

red13n posted...

Keeping my hopes down, easier for the sanity.

Yeah I'm feeling... optimistic but I'm trying to not.

---

Get em

https://twitter.com/alanfeuer/status/1346604367705763840?s=21

---

masterplum posted...

At the end of the day, I may be idelogically semi-conservative, but Republicans losing is good for America. I'm all for it

Good news, theres nothing especially conservative about the Republican Party!

---

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1346622218445479936?s=21

---

red13n posted...

Keeping my hopes down, easier for the sanity.

that's how you do it!

---

I just don't want a repeat of 11/4 where I had to tell everyone to calm down.

And you all yelled at me

Its over hope you like more Loeffler in your lives

---

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1346525695879614467

Disgusting and stupid

Shockingly, peoples' ability to transmit viruses does not depend on their documentation status!

---

neonreaper posted...

Its over hope you like more Loeffler in your lives

what are you basing this on? everything Ive seen recently suggests shes the one of the four least likely to win.
---

LordoftheMorons posted...

Very disturbing article on potential far right violence in DC tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/BrandyZadrozny/status/1346609767855386624

I've been following this for weeks on thedonald and alt right Twitter.

The threats are real and numerous. I just don't know if these are idiots LARPing or if they intend to actually do something. But basically they view Pence as their last hope. I don't know what happens after that but there have been a ton of worrying suggestions on these places.

---

Dems up 3 and 5 points over Biden in Cobb, represeeeent.

What time is Pence supposed to read tomorrow?

just saw theres a third race between a black man named Daniel Blackman and a white dude named Lauren Bubba McDonald which seems like it must be made up
---

We're waiting for serious election day results to come in. That should tell us which way it is going to go.

Silver has floated what sounds like a credible theory in that attacking mail in ballots for an additional two months might skew mail ins further democratic and day of votes further republican. So even though they're running ahead of their numbers so far it could be an even bigger swing in the other direction coming.

So I have no hope one way or another yet.

---

MoogleKupo141 posted...

just saw theres a third race between a black man named Daniel Blackman and a white dude named Lauren Bubba McDonald

Yes, I didn't even know about this until I voted. Did a double take at those names lol.

LordoftheMorons posted...

https://twitter.com/seantrende/status/1346622218445479936?s=21

Based on how x-stats work and how well they held up in Pennsylvania across vote types, if there is a change from the November Purdue +2 result we would expect to see a bigger rise in the center of that graph and a smaller one at the ends. Though since it's a going to be a very small change it may be hard to see the curve.

---

Betting markets swinging back up for the Dems again, did anybody get in on that when they were under a couple hours ago?

UshiromiyaEva posted...

What time is Pence supposed to read tomorrow?

All the objections will take up a lot of time because they must be formally addressed individually so who knows
---

Jakyl25 posted...

All the objections will take up a lot of time because they must be formally addressed individually so who knows

If they want to go nuclear and object to all the electoral votes it can take at least 102 hours.

---

I was too scared this time to jump on it, so not me at least.

I'm tempted to get in now on the other side, but I'll probably pass. I expect at least somewhat of a swing towards republicans, and I've learned in the past month or so how absolutely dumb hardcore trumpers can be with their money. I would expect a swing back towards republicans as more day of votes come in, regardless if it is enough or not. I think I'll abstain and just hold on my winnings from before but the price point is worth mulling over if you think the margins will close and republicans on predictit are dumb, regardless of how you view what the actual outcome will be.

---

You hop on that Pence No train yet?

Seems like free money at this point.

---

Ossoff is up to 80 cents of PredictIt, wow. Warnock even higher.

...that is a huge potential return on Purdue, who I do expect to close a lot here coming up. I could easily see him getting up to 40 cents, at the absolute worst. I still think I'll abstain for now. Day of votes are a bit too unpredictable for my liking still.

---

masterplum posted...

At the end of the day, I may be idelogically semi-conservative, but Republicans losing is good for America. I'm all for it

Basically where I am with these runoffs and Trump.

As long as democrats can't do something ridiculous, so be it.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

You hop on that Pence No train yet?

Seems like free money at this point.

How is it free money? It seems overwhelmingly likely the House at least and probably the Senate will vote down the objections. Then Pence has no discretion to overrule them.

---

Eh I jumped it at Purdue at 0.20. That is just too low for this point in the night. I'm playing with free money at this point anyway!

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

You hop on that Pence No train yet?

Seems like free money at this point.

No, not yet. That's another one I'm still thinking over.

---

red sox 777 posted...

How is it free money? It seems overwhelmingly likely the House at least and probably the Senate will vote down the objections. Then Pence has no discretion to overrule them.

The bet isnt that Pence will overrule anything, its that he will recognize the electors and declare the winner.

Theres zero chance he does that, I bet hell walk out and make Grassley do it.

---

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

The bet isnt that Pence will overrule anything, its that he will recognize the electors and declare the winner.

Theres zero chance he does that, I bet hell walk out and make Grassley do it.

Why is there zero chance he will do that? Has he said he wouldn't?

---

Cobb, which was already swinging ahead of their November Dem points, reportedly still has plenty of absentee ballots to count and will lean even further left. Election officials say they won't even finish counting Cobb tonight more than likely.

https://pagesix.com/2021/01/05/kim-kardashian-kanye-west-getting-a-divorce-shes-done/


---

Suprak the Stud posted...

Eh I jumped it at Purdue at 0.20. That is just too low for this point in the night. I'm playing with free money at this point anyway!

No, not yet. That's another one I'm still thinking over.

rip suprak

---

neonreaper posted...

Its over hope you like more Loeffler in your lives

hope you're wrong.
she's quite possibly the worst politician i've seen. a straight up case of taking the seat by throwing an unlimited supply of money at it.

---

You know it's real bad when you own a basketball team, an the entire team is willing to come out and say "fuck you" on the record.

Worse than Bloomberg?
---

DoomTheGyarados posted...

rip suprak

Purdue is up to 0.29! I've made quite a bit if I sell now.

As I said: actual results don't matter. Republicans on PredictIt are dumb with their money.

Now I just debate if I wait to sell or sell now and take the profit.

---

Lightning Strikes posted...

Are they actually banning people for agreeing with the phrase? Thats horrendous.

No, btw

Lasa's post he deleted would almost certainly be fine. If you're discussing, like, the nuances of police brutality, or the phrase itself, you'll be fine. If you use it with no caveats it becomes generalization. Deleting something regardless of context is reserved for, like, the n-word.
---

Purdue making strides now. Loeffler too, but because she's behind by more, the Needle spread between them is up to 8 points.

---

Vote Trump 2024

---