Current Events > China moving into Afghanistan with its Belt & Road Initiative

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Bio1590
07/05/21 8:19:15 AM
#1:


https://www.thedailybeast.com/china-has-a-big-plan-for-post-us-afghanistan-and-its-worth-billions

KARACHI, PAKISTANAs the U.S. exits Afghanistan, Beijing is preparing to swoop into the war-torn country and fill the vacuum left by the departed U.S. and NATO troops.

China is poised to make an exclusive entry into post-U.S. Afghanistan with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source close to government officials in Afghanistan told The Daily Beast that Kabul authorities are growing more intensively engaged with China on an extension of the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)the flagship project of BRI, which involves the construction of highways, railways and energy pipelines between Pakistan and Chinato Afghanistan.

American troops exited the main and final U.S. military base in Afghanistan on Friday, and though the initial withdrawal date was slated for Sept. 11, security officials told Reuters that the majority of troops would be out by July 4.

According to another source privy to conversations between Beijing and Kabul, one of the specific projects on the table is the construction of a China-backed major road between Afghanistan and Pakistan's northwestern city of Peshawar, which is already linked with the CPEC route. There is a discussion on a Peshawar-Kabul motorway between the authorities in Kabul and Beijing, the source told The Daily Beast on condition of anonymity. Linking Kabul with Peshawar by road means Afghanistans formal joining of CPEC.

In other words: The Afghan government, behind the scenes, is welcoming China immediately after saying goodbye to America.

China has been keen on extending its BRI to Afghanistan, and has been asking Kabul to join it for at least half a decade. But the U.S-backed Afghan government was hesitant to join BRI for fear it could raise eyebrows in Washington.

There has been continuous engagement between the Afghan government and the Chinese for the past few years [but] that made the U.S. suspicious of president Ashraf Ghani government, the source said. He added that now, the engagement is growing more intense, as U.S. forces are leaving and Ghani needs an ally with resources, clout and ability to provide military support to his government.

After U.S President Joe Biden announced plans to fully withdraw American forces by Sept. 11, Chinese foreign ministrys spokesperson Zhao Lijian confirmed last month that China was indeed having discussions with third parties, including Afghanistan, on the extension of CPEC.

Under its BRI strategy, China wants to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through land and maritime networks spanning some 60 countries. The strategy would not only promote inter-regional connectivity, but would also enhance China's influence across the world at an estimated cost of $4 trillion. By virtue of its location, Afghanistan can provide China with a strategic base to spread its influence across the world, ideally located to serve as a trade hub connecting the Middle East, Central Asia and Europe.

The Chinese have very carefully cultivated many political leaders to buy political support for the projects in Afghanistan at the same time, " the source said, adding that the Chinese government can ill afford to see Afghanistan not webbed through the BRI.

He continued: Certainly, the investment that would be injected into the economy will employ many people and in the absence of other economic activities people may welcome it. But the political landscape in Afghanistan stands divided, and there will be some ethnic leaders who will oppose BRI, not because they see disadvantages, but because external actors want to stop it.

According to the source, a senior officer in Afghanistans foreign service had told him that Chinese officials had engaged with foreign minister Salahuddin Rabbani about five years ago, to discuss the extension of CPEC and BRI. The minister was interestedthat is, until an Indian ambassador went on the offensive to push back on the deal. The Indian ambassador to Afghanistan even approached the U.S. ambassador in Kabul to express his concerns, the source said. Ultimately, the American ambassador allegedly pressured Rabbani into backing away from further talks on CPEC with the Chinese.

In another instance, an emotional diplomat openly accused [President Ghani] of siding with the Chinese and offering them Afghan resources," the source said, and the project was stalled.

But now, in light of the U.S. exit, Beijing might be in a good position to pick up where they left off and push Kabul to join the BRI, especially if an American withdrawal leads to the installation of the Taliban regime. Since last February, when the Trump administration signed a peace deal with the Taliban, the Chinese officials have reportedly been in frequent contact with representatives from the militant group.

The Taliban certainly offers a more unified partner to Chinese. But other regional countries have been trying to bring together warlords to think of resistance rather than of peace with the Taliban, the source revealed to The Daily Beast.

As part of its homework strategy for Afghanistan, China has launched some strategic projects, including the construction of Taxkorgan airport on Pamirs Plateau in the northwest Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, which borders Afghanistan. China is also the builder and operator of Gwadar seaport in Pakistans Balochistan province, also bordering Afghanistan. Both Taxkorgan and Gwadar are being developed under CPEC.

Washingtons departure from Afghanistan gives Beijing a strategic opportunity, Michael Kugelman, the deputy director and senior Associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center in Washington told The Daily Beast. There will certainly be a vacuum to fill, but we shouldnt overstate Chinas capacity to fill it. With Afghanistans security situation sure to spiral out of control, theres only so much China will be able to do to deepen its footprint.

As Chinas strategic partner, Pakistan could prove a trump card for China in the Afghan endgame.

I think China could achieve more success than the U.S. in Afghanistan given its close ties with and enormous leverage over Pakistan, Sudha Ramachandran, an India-based analyst on South Asian political and security issues, told The Daily Beast. China wants to ensure that instability in Afghanistan does not impact BRI adversely, and it wants to push Afghanistan to join CPEC or BRI.

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Bio1590
07/05/21 8:19:23 AM
#2:


Still, Chinas ability, Kugelman explained, to deepen its footprint in Afghanistan will depend in great part on whether it reaches an understanding with the Taliban, which will see its influence continue to grow whether it holds power or not. If the Taliban is okay with China building out infrastructure and other projects in Afghanistan, Beijing will be in a much better place.

China could well bring the Taliban on board with BRI. The insurgents have said they will support development projects if they serve Afghan national interests, he added.

What China actually needs to extend its Belt and Road program to Afghanistan is, ultimately, peace. Beijing has gone so far as to offer infrastructure and energy projects worth billions of dollars to the Taliban in return for peace in Afghanistan.

The Taliban isnt the only challenge to overcome, said Kugelman. There are many sources of violence, both anti- and pro-state, in Afghanistan. So China will still face an extremely insecure environment, even if it gets Taliban buy-in for its projects.

Theres no doubt that the strategic assets in Taxkorgan, Wakhan and Gwadar will strengthen Chinas logistical infrastructure, helping it achieve its long-term economic and security objectives in the region.

Peace, though, remains the actual key to Chinas master plan for a post-U.S. Afghanistan.

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RemixRBG
07/05/21 8:24:39 AM
#3:


Good maybe they can help them and build them up after all of the devastation they've faced.

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Alucard188
07/05/21 8:24:40 AM
#4:


Power vacuums don't exist for long.

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brestugo
07/05/21 8:30:45 AM
#5:


Haven't the Afghans suffered enough?

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Njolk
07/05/21 8:35:20 AM
#6:


You gotta love seeing America's chickens come home to roost

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Fade2black001
07/05/21 8:37:54 AM
#7:


Njolk posted...
You gotta love seeing America's chickens come home to roost
Chickens?

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TurtleInFreedom
07/05/21 8:38:38 AM
#8:


It's China's turn now?

It's going to be interesting when radical Afgans start invading China somehow, decades later.
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Njolk
07/05/21 8:42:12 AM
#9:


Fade2black001 posted...
Chickens?

It's a saying that means ones bad deeds have come back to haunt them

The US strategy of making friends involves conquering, killing, and installing a puppet leader. But this rarely works for them

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brestugo
07/05/21 8:45:12 AM
#10:


TurtleInFreedom posted...
It's China's turn now?

It's going to be interesting when radical Afgans start invading China somehow, decades later.
I've been wondering for years when jihadists would show up over the Uighurs' treatment.

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jcmason
07/05/21 8:47:12 AM
#11:


Curious how the Muslim populations in those countries will fare as Chinas influence there grows. Say what you will about the USs activity there (and there is plenty to criticize) but at least we avoided building up internment camps for rounding up the followers of the broader religion.

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Bio1590
07/05/21 8:54:01 AM
#12:


brestugo posted...

I've been wondering for years when jihadists would show up over the Uighurs' treatment.

Never, at least not from an external source.
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Verdekal
07/05/21 8:56:24 AM
#13:


Cool. We'll see how happy they are when China's teraforming goes full swing.

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DrizztLink
07/05/21 9:00:50 AM
#14:


jcmason posted...
Curious how the Muslim populations in those countries will fare as Chinas influence there grows. Say what you will about the USs activity there (and there is plenty to criticize) but at least we avoided building up internment camps for rounding up the followers of the broader religion.
I mean, we do it by race and nationality.

Not a lot better.

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St0rmFury
07/05/21 9:06:22 AM
#15:


I want really following up on this, but how did China's similar attempt at Africa fare?
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LNSS
07/05/21 9:07:45 AM
#16:


Nice. Go China!
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CADE FOSTER
07/05/21 9:08:59 AM
#17:


lets see if the terrorists go after them
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Bio1590
07/05/21 9:13:09 AM
#18:


St0rmFury posted...
I want really following up on this, but how did China's similar attempt at Africa fare?

I mean this isn't Africa but

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html

Yeah
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CADE FOSTER
07/05/21 9:15:09 AM
#19:


When u let China in they own you countries dont learn
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#20
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gamer167
07/05/21 10:07:18 AM
#21:


Uhh ohh, weve seen how China handles working with Muslims.
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Halo478
07/05/21 10:25:45 AM
#22:


gamer167 posted...
Uhh ohh, weve seen how China handles working with Muslims.
lets see if they are cool with losing 1000's maybe tens of thousands of men

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Dat_Cracka_Jax
07/05/21 10:30:54 AM
#23:


Bio1590 posted...
The strategy would not only promote inter-regional connectivity, but would also enhance China's influence across the world at an estimated cost of $4 trillion.
That doesn't really seem like that much. What does America have to show for the trillions in debt that we have?

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#24
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ModLogic
07/05/21 10:31:22 AM
#25:


Bio1590 posted...
Peace
aw hell no
usa will NOT stand for or allow this to happen

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Thompson
07/05/21 10:36:07 AM
#26:


metallica846 posted...
The Uyghurs dont have firepower like the Taliban.

The US is armed to the teeth and still couldnt squash them. The question is really if the Chinese would even try to follow the rules of war.

The mujahideen are protected because they look like civilians and just blend in without a weapon in their hands. How do you root them out if they look like civilians?
Not sure China would have any qualms about killing every person they see, civilian or not.

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Ooooooranges
07/05/21 10:36:57 AM
#27:


The complete lack of knowledge about China's actual ambition here displayed in this topic is both sad and unsurprising.

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Fenriswolf
07/05/21 10:43:14 AM
#28:


jcmason posted...
Curious how the Muslim populations in those countries will fare as Chinas influence there grows. Say what you will about the USs activity there (and there is plenty to criticize) but at least we avoided building up internment camps for rounding up the followers of the broader religion.

Yeah right, the Xinjiang conflict is an ethnic one not a religious one. The Hui people, China's other Muslim minority, hates the Uighurs due to wars in the 30s and 40s, which is why they're mostly pro-CCP and in turn left alone.

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brestugo
07/05/21 10:44:54 AM
#29:


ISt0rmFury posted...
I want really following up on this, but how did China's similar attempt at Africa fare?
Instead of "Belt and Road" many Africans call it "Hook, Line and Sinker" - China builds shit with money they loaned in the first place at loanshark rates. In 20 years they foreclose and seize the factory, seaport or energy supplier.

Note also that China in Africa deals not with the legit, emerging democracies or economies, like Senegal, Mauritius or Eritrea. They're dealing with places like Somalia and Rwanda.

inb4thewumao.

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#30
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Zikten
07/05/21 10:50:55 AM
#31:


LNSS posted...
Nice. Go China!

I dont think you understand what you are saying
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Fenriswolf
07/05/21 11:08:33 AM
#32:


brestugo posted...
I
Instead of "Belt and Road" many Africans call it "Hook, Line and Sinker" - China builds shit with money they loaned in the first place at loanshark rates. In 20 years they foreclose and seize the factory, seaport or energy supplier.

Note also that China in Africa deals not with the legit, emerging democracies or economies, like Senegal, Mauritius or Eritrea. They're dealing with places like Somalia and Rwanda.

inb4thewumao.

You're full of nonsense. Instead of repeating what the US state department say why don't you ask Africans themselves?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5uzxV8ub9k

And LOL @ suggesting that Eritrea is an emerging democracy when it never had any elections since its creation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrea

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#33
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masticatingman
07/05/21 11:24:38 AM
#34:


Every empire thats tried to make authoritative inroads into Afghanistan for the last few centuries has been rebuked.

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Shezarr
07/05/21 11:24:40 AM
#35:


Funny how so many who would call themselves anti-imperialists suddenly have no problem when its china

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Fenriswolf
07/05/21 11:34:55 AM
#36:


So turns out all the hype about "debt trap" diplomacy is just US government nonsense, since they instead to prefer to keep Africans poor and depended on aid with strings attached, instead.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3136024/why-western-narrative-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy-another-big-lie

Research released in March, titled How China Lends, lifts the veil on Chinas debt contracts with foreign governments. Done by AidData, the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Kiel Institute, it provides some valuable insights when put alongside the work at Johns Hopkins China-Africa Research Institute.

The study, based on 300 contracts worth more than US$36 billion, says the mix of confidentiality, seniority and policy influence could limit the sovereign debtors crisis management options and complicate debt renegotiation.

However, it also says the debate over Chinas lending strategy and intention is largely based on conjecture. Existing research and policy debate rests upon anecdotal accounts in media reports, cherry-picked cases and isolated excerpts from a small number of contracts.

Brautigam, of the China-Africa Research Institute, reaches similar conclusions. Chinas march outward, like its domestic development, is probing and experimental, a learning process marked by frequent adjustment, she says.

In another publication, she said her studies of Chinas FDI contracts found no asset seizures, evidence of use of courts to enforce payment or penalty interest rates. Countering claims that China refused to renegotiate contracts, she found 94 cases of cancellation, 16 of debt restructuring and one case of refinancing.

While Chinas obsession about confidentiality and lack of transparency fuels suspicion about intentions, she found that despite critics worries that China would seize its borrowers assets, we do not see China attempting to take advantage of countries in debt distress.

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UnholyMudcrab
07/05/21 11:36:00 AM
#37:


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I Like Toast
07/05/21 11:37:17 AM
#38:


Njolk posted...


The US strategy of making friends involves conquering, killing, and installing a puppet leader. But this rarely works for them

remind me, how did the afgans get armed in the first place?

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Fenriswolf
07/05/21 11:37:17 AM
#39:


Shezarr posted...
Funny how so many who would call themselves anti-imperialists suddenly have no problem when its china

Oh please, China was a victim of imperialism and has zero ability to project power overseas, and it isn't attempting to spread any ideologies overseas either. In contrast, how many bases does the US have across the world?

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I Like Toast
07/05/21 11:38:04 AM
#40:


Fenriswolf posted...
and it isn't attempting to spread any ideologies overseas either.
lmfao

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Quicksilver
07/05/21 11:46:58 AM
#41:


China wants those rare earth minerals they will do what they need to to get them and leave everything else alone. China isn't going to try to change the place like America did they will focus on what they want and forget the rest.

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LNSS
07/05/21 11:47:43 AM
#42:


Zikten posted...
I dont think you understand what you are saying

huh
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Samurontai
07/05/21 11:58:03 AM
#43:


Chinas take on foreign intervention is typically smart, iirc. Like how their handling Africa and what not. I surprisingly think that China might actually have a chance to fix Afghanistan. Im just afraid of the measures theyll use in times of war, as opposed to their peace time ventures in Africa

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Samurontai
07/05/21 11:58:48 AM
#44:


Fenriswolf posted...
Oh please, China was a victim of imperialism and has zero ability to project power overseas, and it isn't attempting to spread any ideologies overseas either. In contrast, how many bases does the US have across the world?

Yeah thats not true at all. You can project power through non-violent means. China has already made decent measures in Africa

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brestugo
07/05/21 12:13:36 PM
#45:


Fenriswolf posted...
You're full of nonsense. Instead of repeating what the US state department say why don't you ask Africans themselves?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5uzxV8ub9k

And LOL @ suggesting that Eritrea is an emerging democracy when it never had any elections since its creation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrea
It's a scam. Google "debt trap diplomacy" and what people from Sri Lanka to Africa have to say about it. The South China Morning post would of course have no bad thing to say about it.

Politics in Africa are complicated to say the least. Eritrea is a one party state but there are still local elections. They are considered free and fair. Eritrea is by definition an emerging democracy. And capitalist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Eritrea

China cannot say the same.

Get your boys at HQ to get you better research.

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Returning_CEmen
07/05/21 12:15:49 PM
#46:


Hopefully China can bring stability to the region

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LNSS
07/05/21 12:16:10 PM
#47:


brestugo posted...
It's a scam. Google "debt trap diplomacy" and what people from Sri Lanka to Africa have to say about it. The South China Morning post would of course have no bad thing to say about it.

Politics in Africa are complicated to say the least. Eritrea is a one party state but there are still local elections. They are considered free and fair. Eritrea is by definition an emerging democracy. And capitalist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Eritrea

China cannot say the same.

Get your boys at HQ to get you better research.

Umm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

No difference. In fact, China is more democratic because there is more participation in their electoral system.
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hockeybub89
07/05/21 12:16:39 PM
#48:


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hockeybub89
07/05/21 12:17:03 PM
#49:


LNSS posted...
Umm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

No difference. In fact, China is more democratic because there is more participation in their electoral system.
lol imagine thinking votes are legitimate in China

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brestugo
07/05/21 12:17:52 PM
#50:


LNSS posted...
Umm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_China

No difference. In fact, China is more democratic because there is more participation in their electoral system.


Go crazy, throw Russia and North Korea in too.

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