Board 8 > YGO Master Duel Mafia Topic 7 - Zero Days since the last Microtransaction

(+) Yeah! (+)

For Chang, there's still this potential Sultan slip that bugs the hell out of me:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80196230/968712841

Abacus hasn't given enough meaningful content, but there is him trying to say that the Ctes flip means Sultan is town, when that's almost certainly not the case:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/80200491/968762723

Kirby we've explained. Entirely possible.

ViolentAbacus posted...

Poppy also seems to be coaching/giving advice to BCT but this seems like legit advice/trying to get BCT to look favorably onto Poppy.

If I were scum and Poppy wanted to give me advice, would that not be on Discord? He most certainly was trying to dupe me.

Lopen posted...

Scum is too cramped for gold if Chang is scum

This is a good point, but what did scum do for cards last night? Did they save their gems to get rid of Ghost Belles, or did they possibly buy Ash Blossoms in case one of them didn't make it? That's my curiosity. It doesn't appear scum did much last night and that causes me to raise my eyebrow. But yeah, that's still a really good point.

I don't even know how that first post is a slip

Anyway BCT you're making this very hard

The first thing you need to do in mafia is realize that people make mistakes. Lots of mistakes. I don't think Abacus saying that Ctes flipping town makes Sultan look better has any meaning whatsoever. It's just theory that ended up wrong. Same as me saying "I don't think Ben votes Sbell and says he's town when he does if scum"

Motivations and (lack of) consistency are the way you find tells. Someone guessing someone's alignment wrong based on speculation is not a tell.

Can we say either Abacus or Chang are 100% town? No. Can we say like 99%? Yes. Trying to think they might be scum, if you're town, just generates distracting noise.

Again, I'm an amateur at this, so I appreciate you actually being patient with me. Scum would totally use this to go after me, and that's what Sultan is doing.

So yeah, you're probably right. It IS probably just Sultan and Kirby, and if it's not, I got played, and I probably don't want to see the dead town chat's "WHYYYYYY BCT WHYYYYY" messages.

If I'm scum it's way way easier for me to just say you're scum and be done with it. You shouldn't worry about losing the game that way.

What lost Kirby the game was going over to you possibly being scum. He should have tried to pair me and Sultan and insist you had to be town. Because man I went hard on you being scum yesterday.

Kirby is playing the court of public appeals with his suspicions though and saw other people thinking you had merit as a lynch target too.

Anyone who thinks I'm scum should be inherently suspicious of anyone I'm trying to get lynched as possibly being town. Kirby was not and became "convinced"

Further, so much of the argument I used for you being scum was tied to Kirby being scum

Kirby had even more reason to be skeptical you were scum, but chose not to. Why? Because you had Abacus and Chang saying "yeah it might be BCT" you seemed like an easy mislynch. He couldn't turn it off, he saw that victory condition and had to seize it.

Yeah, your thinking is too complex to be scum at this point. One mislynch wins it for the bad guys. That mislynch could've been me, but you thought it over and realized that's what's going on. We can't be conned here. We have to shoot scum. And I think we know who scum is now.

I'm fine with either of 'em but want other opinions. Namely Chang and HB since we heard from Abacus.

Note also Sultan went from

Calling me scum two days ago
Calling me town yesterday
Calling me scum today

Game state and my amount of activity literally hasn't changed it's just been getting scum scans off the board

I quickly realized I hate typing on mobile and trying to quote snippets from posts. Now that I'm home, I can do so on the comfort of my desktop. Though it's been a long day, so my brain is far from being in top shape at the moment >_>

BlueCrystalTear posted...

Han responds to Sultan asking about protecting me, where Han says that Im saying Im not good at Mafia, as opposed to I dont know much about Mafia. Sultan then suggests somethings off about Han (T1P322), but cant explain it except for theorizing that Han is playing feedback more than attacker. In other words, Han should be attacking townies as opposed to helping them know how to play better, which is a scum mindset. What is off about trying to help town win the game by not making dumb mistakes? Town Han calls him out on this. Sultans suggestion is daft and harmful to the cause.

Gonna be honest, I didn't get through the entire ISO. I realize now that not only do I find writing ISOs boring, but reading them is also a pain when they're this detailed.

That being said, this quote snippet definitely stood out to me. I do remember Sultan constantly saying "Han seems off but I don't know why" as a very weak suspicion throughout Day 1. Perhaps it was setup to try and get Han mislynched later on? But Sultan doesn't strike me as the kind of player who would try to deliberately go toe-to-toe with a vocal player who can hold their own as scum. I don't think anyone else was suspicious of Han besides Lopen the entire game. And Lopen is the type of player who'd try to pretend to be town by barking down strong town players, especially Han.

Lopen posted...

Scum has one counterplay to Ghost Belle regardless

And that is if scum uses Ghost Belle on their target then they can fake being watcher

So if someone's ghost belle flips, don't just assume it's the truth. You need to determine the logic and such behind laying down the trap

Faking Watcher isn't viable, as we already saw with Ben. Jokes aside, scum can target the same person they intend to kill, but their cover still gets blown if anyone else picks the same target, and especially so if more than one person targeted the same person and both say the same thing (which would incriminate the scum trying to "fake Watcher"). That's doubly obvious now that we know Poppy is Ninja.

Even if this was the case, wasn't it your idea to do this whole Ghost Belle mesh network thing? What was the point of even doing that if we can't assume the scan is correct? This post makes no sense.

Lopen posted...

##Vote: Kirby

Ultimately I think this makes the most sense

Kirby x Sultan makes sense
Kirby x BCT makes sense

BCT x Sultan I just have a lot of trouble imagining. I think Kirby's fixation with the godfather existing might have been his endgame mislynch gameplan and he was keeping suspicion of it up due to being godfather and knowing he could use it no matter who hb scanned.

If you want to play dangerously, go with me and defy the results of the cop scan. Or convince me to vote BCT/Sultan I suppose. Or vote me. Whatever.

I'm not willing to put any more effort into the game except at request-- I'm not going to have a ton of time this weekend. If you want my opinion it's Sultan x Kirby and if anyone wants me to argue that harder because they could be convinced, by all means, request.

I need to know who is willing to lynch the cop scan because if no one is willing to do that we're wasting time.

This just looks like desperation to me. Lopen was set on lynching me yesterday, and even after I've been proven town, he still wants to push the lynch on me. Because now it's convenient for him to start pushing the Godfather narrative despite him harping on me for bringing up the remote possibility of Abacus being Godfather lol

Which is weird. Lopen's already assuming that the Godfather has been scanned, even though there's still a possibility the Godfather hasn't been scanned, or if one even exists at all (which, for a game this size, is highly unlikely). Lopen would rather convince the town to stake their lynch on a 50/50 that could just as easily be a guaranteed loss, rather than try to get his scumbuddy in the crossfire of a lynch pool with much better odds of hitting scum (or perhaps Abacus is his scumbuddy and Lopen is protecting him).

There is no universe where lynching the scanned townie makes sense when the odds of another scum are lurking around and none of the dead scum flipped Godfather.

I also feel like this post right here is a scum slip:

Lopen posted...

was really hoping hb would scan Sultan. Ugh. Hard to figure the game out now. Kirby as GF slots much better than Sultan as GF.

Lopen was considering Sultan as a Godfather? Interesting... Makes me think Lopen was prepared to call anyone Godfather when the results seemed fitting to him. I'm 90% sure he would've called me scum no matter who Hb scanned and would've adjusted his narrative accordingly.

I need to cook dinner and this post is getting way too long as it stands. But frankly, I don't see how Lopen isn't scum here. He really wants me dead because that's his best pathway to victory.

##Vote: Lopen

Kirby321 posted...

Lopen was considering Sultan as a Godfather?

No. I'm saying I wasn't considering him as godfather vs you or BCT and thus if he scanned town I'd more likely to believe it.

The reason you would be godfather has been the constant godfather fear mongering when it isn't rational to do so

The reason BCT would be godfather is he has been begging for a scan

The reason I'd be godfather (relative to hb) is intentionally drawing suspicion by tieing myself to Ben so hard

BlueCrystalTear posted...

and if it's not, I got played, and I probably don't want to see the dead town chat's "WHYYYYYY BCT WHYYYYY" messages.

Speaking from experience, dead town chat is usually pretty asshole-ish, especially if town loses. They know the entire setup, so everything seems so obvious to them and the rest of us look like absolute buffoons for not being automatically suspicious of the right people. I'm sure some of them were bitching about yesterday lasting for almost 48 hours despite Poppy being confirmed scum. "Come on IT'S SO OBVIOUS!! Why are they dragging this out ffs JUST END THE GAME ALREADY"

But that's a rant for another time. I just wanted to put it out there because it's pretty damn inevitable dead town is gonna be malding if we lose this game. They do it every town loss, with only very few reasonable people staying calm and having good enough manners to say gg, thank the host, and move on. And when town wins? "lol scum was so bad this game"

I dunno if you're just saying it as theater or not, but regardless of your alignment, dead town chat can kindly fuck off. Don't pay them any mind when this game ends. And that goes for everyone here, no matter your alignment in this game.

Kirby if town should be trying to figure out which scummate makes the most sense.

The fact that he's entirely focusing just on making me look like scum is a scumtell. He intentionally only looks for one scum at a time so he can potentially bus someone else and call them my teammate.

Nevermind, dinner can wait. I have to address this because this is ridiculous lol

Lopen posted...

What lost Kirby the game was going over to you possibly being scum. He should have tried to pair me and Sultan and insist you had to be town. Because man I went hard on you being scum yesterday.

Kirby is playing the court of public appeals with his suspicions though and saw other people thinking you had merit as a lynch target too.

Anyone who thinks I'm scum should be inherently suspicious of anyone I'm trying to get lynched as possibly being town. Kirby was not and became "convinced"

If I'm going to be completely honest, I largely ignored BCT and Sultan this entire game because I knew their posts were just gonna amount to nothing else but attack each other. Even then, I always thought Sultan looked townier, though I wasn't particularly keen on either of them. But we've seen a scum Sultan trying to fake his town tells before, and I wasn't getting quite the same vibes this game, though I do recall being quite befuddled by some of the things he said in this game.

Though I find it quite rich that you ridiculed my ISO for being way too long and obfuscating stuff or whatever, but I get the feeling you didn't even give a lick of attention to BCT's ISO. I mean, I haven't read it past the first post, either, since it's lengthy and is narrowly focused on Sultan to the point where there's not much else to read besides BCT's conclusion of "Sultan is scum". And yet he gets a pass while you accuse me.

Lopen posted...

Further, so much of the argument I used for you being scum was tied to Kirby being scum

Kirby had even more reason to be skeptical you were scum, but chose not to. Why? Because you had Abacus and Chang saying "yeah it might be BCT" you seemed like an easy mislynch. He couldn't turn it off, he saw that victory condition and had to seize it.

Dude, if I were scum desperate to win, I sure as hell would've given up on you ages ago when I couldn't get anyone to see my point of view that you were scum. This is such a dumb argument.

Yesterday, I was dead set convinced you're scum, and I'm even more convinced that you're scum with how blatantly you think I'm an easy mislynch target.

Kirby321 posted...

how blatantly you think I'm an easy mislynch target.

Yeah the guy the cop scanned town

Easy mislynch target for sure

Lopen posted...

Yeah the guy the cop scanned town

Easy mislynch target for sure

Yesterday, you were literally all "BCT, Sultan, Kirby... you guys are making this so har- Wait, Kirby said something I can twist to make him look scummy. OMG SULTAN I'M SO SORRY YOU'RE TOWN IT'S SO OBVIOUSLY KIRBY AND BCT"

And now you're taking BCT's side and suspecting Sultan. But as you've now realized, BCT and Sultan would need Oscar awards for their acting if they were scum. Everyone and their mothers came to the conclusion that BCT and Sultan were very likely one town, one scum ages ago.

Obviously, you can't push them both as scum, so you picked me and are now doubling down on it in spite of my scan. Because you have no other option but to push me for the mislynch, as BCT and Sultan wouldn't make for a convincing scum pair, and neither would Chang or Abacus being lumped with either of them. Especially not Abacus since you've dug your heels in about Abacus being 100% town.

In fact, maybe we are being played for fools and Abacus is Godfather, and Lopen is just making some bullshit up about scum not insta-killing the Cop on GF scan to keep people on the lynch pool of Kirby, Sultan, and BCT. Like, honestly, does anyone think that argument makes sense? That scum instantly offs the Cop if their Godfather gets scanned, despite having a roleblocker who can keep the outed Cop permanently roleblocked?

I can give you some tips how to win this game as scum if you want.

Drop the abacus as GF theory is a big one. You only need one mislynch to win so having one town confirmed is completely fine.

Your team played really greedy. That's really all I have to say to you at this point. And I have no interest in playing 2 days with you still on the table so we resolve this now.

Anyway, this is taking too much time. This discussion is gonna be an endless bickering between me, Lopen, BCT, and Sultan with nothing productive happening. I have things I need to get done, and this day has been long as it is.

I'm obviously not convincing Lopen any time soon, and he sure as hell isn't convincing me. We are absolutely going nowhere without more input from Hb, Abacus, and Chang, especially with how divided everyone is.

Kirby321 posted...

Obviously, you can't push them both as scum

You probably can actually. Sultan could probably make BCT flip out if he was relentlessly bussing him if they were on the same team.

Again. Tips for you. To win next time.

How I play in your seat

Defend BCT with your absolute life, say I'm scum for trying to give an easy lynch

If you die first, BCT is implicated. If BCT does first you win. It's win win.

Similar theory is why leaving hb alive was super greedy. You guys had the game in the bag once Ben flips with how much I defended him. Just be mortally sure you kill him with kill + rb

And now Lopen has run out of arguments to make, so he resorts to the juvenile tactic of taunting a townie that he is oh-so convinced is scum. Because he needs this mislynch.

Imagine opening up the day voting for BCT, then immediately switching to me "because it makes the most sense".

I think I hit a bullseye with the "BCT and Sultan can't both be scum, and Lopen didn't realize that quickly enough so pivoting to Kirby as Godfather is optimal" lol

Lol

No one reading the day seriously thinks I'm pressing for BCT's lynch at any point today

Even BCT was unphased

You're grasping man

Listen I'm just saying when you guys lose I don't want you to blame the setup.

This setup was conservative and imo balanced quite well. You just squandered your lead. 1 mislynch that's all you needed.

You even had me trying to lynch the cop and BCT being hysterical and you somehow lost it.

And I know you're going to say I am like playing with bias of knowing bus is in the setup but that's just not true. I thought Peaf was town RB and that absolutely does the same thing. Along with countless other homebrew roles. When you need to be sure you need to be sure.

I have killed + RBed super high priority targets many times as scum. Sometimes you just need to be that sure to win.

Lopen like I said I keep going back and forth on you. Beacuse I do truly believe you're good at this game

You probably should have spoke up more against Poppy and Kirby's plan to make me get the cop lynched. They haven't played enough games with me to know Im not terrible

So, on the drive home I was thinking is there any reason we shouldn't take HB's suggestion? What're the downsides?

Hbthebattle posted...

Anyway I'm going to recommend we no-kill today.

I was looking at the traps and there are 5 on the field: Me, Kirby, BCT, Chang, Lopen

At least 3 of those are Ghost Belle's, with a high chance of it being 4... Unless I'm mistaken?

It gives us a pretty high chance of scum killing someone who has a Ghost Belle on them.

The big downsides I guess are:
We don't know who all has Ghost's on them, and there's a chance scum kills someone without one.
Scum may have something to get rid of traps. I haven't been too focused on finances.
Our traps may become a different card/leave the store

Similarly

Lopen posted...

That scan isn't going to disappear

Rip off the bandaid and lynch me or him

Unless you think it's Sultan x BCT somehow. If you think that is possible, argue it.

If we don't want to nokill, I'd rather kill the person we more think is scum/doesn't have a scan and hope the trap gets set off as a guarantee.

I do want to hear more from Chang & HB though.

ViolentAbacus posted...

So, on the drive home I was thinking is there any reason we shouldn't take HB's suggestion? What're the downsides?

I was looking at the traps and there are 5 on the field: Me, Kirby, BCT, Chang, Lopen

At least 3 of those are Ghost Belle's, with a high chance of it being 4... Unless I'm mistaken?

It gives us a pretty high chance of scum killing someone who has a Ghost Belle on them.

The big downsides I guess are:
We don't know who all has Ghost's on them, and there's a chance scum kills someone without one.
Scum may have something to get rid of traps. I haven't been too focused on finances.
Our traps may become a different card/leave the store

Similarly

If we don't want to nokill, I'd rather kill the person we more think is scum/doesn't have a scan and hope the trap gets set off as a guarantee.

I do want to hear more from Chang & HB though.

Sultan if scum saved a bunch of money and can throw a bunch of lightning storms

Kirby being GF idk how likely it is. Scum had a ninja and role blocker.

I could think that the trap card pot of Greed fucks wirh Cop enough. Doesn't it. It's weird no day cop with that Mechanic though.

Actually pot of Greed is kind of Bull shit if you think about it for scum. It waste there money with no day cop in the game. But maybe that is the idea?

ViolentAbacus posted...

The big downsides I guess are:
We don't know who all has Ghost's on them, and there's a chance scum kills someone without one.
Scum may have something to get rid of traps. I haven't been too focused on finances.
Our traps may become a different card/leave the store

If someone doesn't have a Ghost down, they're probably scum.

If scum couldn't Lighting Storm Hb's Scapegoat, I doubt they can Lightning Storm any Ghost Belles before they activate from a nightkill.

We'd be fools to not make use of one of the only useful cards this game has had so far

Kirby321 posted...

If scum couldn't Lighting Storm Hb's Scapegoat, I doubt they can Lightning Storm any Ghost Belles before they activate from a nightkill.

Part of the reason I Baught the Summon monster spell I didn't know if HB would get a scan off and be able to tell us...

Well that's why I'm arguing if we can agree on a person who hasn't been scanned, then we can lynch them if we do decide to lynch. The last person won't be able to lightning storm all 3/4

Kirby321 posted...

If scum couldn't Lighting Storm Hb's Scapegoat, I doubt they can Lightning Storm any Ghost Belles before they activate from a nightkill.

Fake. Anyone (scum or town) who asked questions about timing knows why lightning storm works on Belle but not Scapegoat

Pretending you don't know is a show

Lopen posted...

Fake. Anyone (scum or town) who asked questions about timing knows why lightning storm works on Belle but not Scapegoat

Pretending you don't know is a show

How? Do we know this?

If you asked the host about card timings you'd know. I know Kirby is inquisitive to have asked. As town or scum.

Anyway the point is scum gets money no matter who we lynch and lightning is cheaper than Ghost Belle

You can't depend on Ghost Belle to win here. Scum can POE which ones to shoot. You NL it just becomes easier for them.

Realistically NL is just going to have scum shoot and obvtown and we're no better off. No reason to dawdle.

That's fair.. I like the idea of these shops but at the same time I think they open themselves up for way to much interpretations.

Lopen what is your argument against No Lynch?

Lightning Storm is cheaper than Ghost Belle and we just lose our traps

Also we gain like no POE value by say Chang dying

NL is for when there are less town confirms in the game. Right now when there are two obvtown it only makes the game harder to solve when you NL (because obvtown votes being not scum is good)

You NL
Chang dies
What changes

You NL
Abacus dies
What abacuses

Lopen posted...

If you asked the host about card timings you'd know. I know Kirby is inquisitive to have asked. As town or scum.

Dude you are absolutely bullshitting

I didn't question my role in Dota Mafia nearly as much as I should have. You should know this! The whole reason Corrik got on my case was because he couldn't understand that I didn't understand my own damn role and didn't ask enough about it!

And these cards have been pretty damn useless for the most part, or at least extremely situational or otherwise needed a ton of Gems to get them in the first place. Why the hell would I ask about card interactions that don't affect me? I didn't even know I could convert my cards until yesterday! I would've instantly set Ghost Belle on my field if I knew I could dispose of my Crossout Designator at any time. Hell, I could've converted my Crossout Designator and Pot of Greed much earlier and hoarded a Maxx C before it was taken off the market (though looking at the setup, that probably would've done more active harm than good).

ffs I could literally just breathe and Lopen will find any excuse to paint me as scum. Talk about desperation sheesh

These timings were discussed in game when we learned scum fired lightning storms randomly to hit hb through bus

Fuck it. Home run swing.

##VOTE:lopen

lopen is good I give him that but I'd gladly lynch lopen and be wrong about this but Suktan Gut say Lopen BCT final answer

Last time you talked about the home run it was on Han, Casey

True but! Its the only ring that makes sense to me at this point in the game and if I'm wrong we'll gg scum you got me!

You calling me Casey Jonea from TMNT?

No that guy who struck out

Lopen posted...

No that guy who struck out

Ohh Casey at the Bat

Why would I immediately think Casey Jones? He was also more so Hockey than baseball

Someone else should vote me and see if BCT hammers

Actually no one vote me. Going to test something