Current Events > Millennials are no longer becoming more conservative as they get older.

(+) Yeah! (+)

https://www.ft.com/content/c361e372-769e-45cd-a063-f5c0a7767cf4

Can't see, paywall.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/8/8/AAdlC_AAEC1c.png

$69 a month? Nani the fuck

good.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/9/4/AAW8UqAAEC1i.jpg

Anyway, this is great news.

The doomsayers who think the GOP will take the nation by force should be relieved by this report. It's to be expected, honestly. America's youth are largely multicultural now. There's no sense voting for a party which coddles racist ideology if you have ancestry from a different ethnic background.

Donald Trump was bigotry's last hurrah. (Well, racism's last hurrah. There will likely always be bigotry in some form or another.) The GOP will have to adopt new strategies to survive. Including Latinos under the blanket of Whiteness to try and increase the number of White Americans won't help. There aren't enough bigots to make that happen. For those who vote Republican due to ignorance, younger generations are more educated. The information superhighway isn't some new and frightful thing to them. And they're financially suffering the consequences of trying to run the economy the Republican way.

The Republican party won't sink clinging to the anchor of white supremacy, but they will be forced by necessity to change their tactics in the next decade or so.

Im barely a millennial in the oldest bracket but it counts. I was raised really conservatively and stuck with it mostly for a good decade and a half into adulthood, but Ive definitely moved to the left since then (not that Im super liberal, but definitely much more moderate compared to where I started).

Weird. It was working for me earlier.

If you are not a liberal at 25, you have no heart. If you are not a conservative at 35 you have no brain. So said Winston Churchill. Or US president John Adams. Or perhaps King Oscar II of Sweden. Variations of this aphorism have circulated since the 18th century, underscoring the well-established rule that as people grow older, they tend to become more conservative.

The pattern has held remarkably firm. By my calculations, members of Britains silent generation, born between 1928 and 1945, were five percentage points less conservative than the national average at age 35, but around five points more conservative by age 70. The baby boomer generation traced the same path, and Gen X, born between 1965 and 1980, are now following suit.

Millennials born between 1981 and 1996 started out on the same trajectory, but then something changed. The shift has striking implications for the UKs Conservatives and US Republicans, who can no longer simply rely on their base being replenished as the years pass.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/9/5/AANZVmAAEC1j.jpg

Its not every day that concepts from public health analytics find a use in politics, but if youre a strategist on the right, then now might be a good time for a primer on untangling age, period and cohort effects. Age effects are changes that happen over someones life regardless of when they are born, period effects result from events that affect all ages simultaneously, and cohort effects stem from differences that emerge among people who experience a common event at the same time.

This framework is used to understand differences in a population and whether they are likely to be lasting. This makes it perfectly suited to interrogating why support for conservative parties is so low among millennials and whether it will stay there.

Lets start with age effects, and the oldest rule in politics: people become more conservative with age. If millennials liberal inclinations are merely a result of this age effect, then at age 35 they too should be around five points less conservative than the national average, and can be relied upon to gradually become more conservative. In fact, theyre more like 15 points less conservative, and in both Britain and the US are by far the least conservative 35-year-olds in recorded history.

On to period effects. Could some force be pushing voters of all ages away from the right? In the UK there has certainly been an event. Support for the Tories plummeted across all ages during Liz Trusss brief tenure, and has only partially rebounded. But a population-wide effect cannot completely explain millennials liberal exceptionalism, nor why we see the same pattern in the US without the same shock.

So the most likely explanation is a cohort effect that millennials have developed different values to previous generations, shaped by experiences unique to them, and they do not feel conservatives share these.

This is borne out by US survey data showing that, having reached political maturity in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, millennials are tacking much further to the left on economics than previous generations did, favouring greater redistribution from rich to poor.

Similar patterns are evident in Britain, where millennials are more economically leftwing than Gen-Xers and boomers were at the same age, and Brexit has alienated a higher share of former Tory backers among this generation than any other. Even before Truss, two-thirds of millennials who had backed the Conservatives before the EU referendum were no longer planning to vote for the party again, and one in four said they now strongly disliked the Tories.

The data is clear that millennials are not simply going to age into conservatism. To reverse a cohort effect, you have to do something for that cohort. Home ownership continues to prove more elusive for millennials than for earlier generations at the same age in both countries. With houses increasingly difficult to afford, a good place to start would be to help more millennials get on to the housing ladder. Serious proposals for reforming two of the worlds most expensive childcare systems would be another.

UK millennials and their Gen Z younger cousins will probably cast more votes than boomers in the next general election. After years of being considered an electoral afterthought, their vote will soon be pivotal. Without drastic changes to both policy and messaging, that could consign conservative parties to an increasingly distant second place.

I am far more liberal than I was 10 years ago, tbh

I was raised conservative and realized how stupid right-wing ideology is before I turned 18. I've drifted further left each passing year.

i feel like i haven't changed much at all, but the world (or more accurately, my part of it) has shifted so hard away from me that i've been dragged left by standing still.

but i've literally gone from:

libertarian Republican who never wanted Democrats to be in power, to
libertarian Republican who wanted Republicans to focus on fiscal issues and Democrats to focus on social issues, to
Libertarian same as above, to
Libertarian who never wanted Republicans to be in power, to
libertarian Independent who never wants Republicans or Libertarians to be in power.

and by this time next year, i expect to be an actual Democrat.

in literally 25 years. that seems insane, in hindsight.

It turns out that fucking over an entire generation for their whole adult life makes them less conservative. I'm shocked Pikachu about this

Nice

The 1st generation in American history to have less resources than their parents. What a shocking development they aren't becoming more conservative.

The truth is, people become conservative because they are in a good place in life, and fear change may destabilize that. Millennials are not enjoying the same luxuries that boomers and gen x'ers had at the same point in their life, so what's their reasoning to keep the status quo? They went to college, they worked hard, and in return, they got a large pile of debt because the old people want to make as much money before they pass away as they can. The price of things is not proportionate to the value of our jobs as they were for those generations. The fact that a father could support a household in the old days, and now a father and mother both struggle is mind-boggling.

And the thing is, gen z is now starting to have more of a say, so now you don't just have one young generation feeling betrayed by the world, but two.

Luckily for the boomers, they won't have to face the consequences of their actions, but gen x'ers are in for a world of pain if Millennials don't get their fair dues. That, or Gen X'ers are going to have to become authoritarian (which we have seen an attempt by the modern Republican party) to squash whatever the youth is cooking up. The fact is, Millennials aren't young anymore, they are reaching their 30's and 40's, and I have to imagine they are getting real tired of how they've been treated.

If the right fears the AOC's of the world, well, they aren't doing themselves any favors. If student debt becomes uncanceled because of the Supreme Court, I have no idea what the youth will do, but it's not going to help the right in the long-term.

FortuneCookie posted...

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/1/8/8/AAdlC_AAEC1c.png

From $1 to $69

What in tarnation?

I could certainly have no idea what Im talking about, but Id wager at least part of it is once upon a time it seemed like there was defined conservative stances and by and large the big names mostly loved the role, at least publicly. The last six or so years have basically been a free for all with conservative! Handwritten on a bedsheet. The group that calls themselves conservatives has pretty much abandoned the fiscal policy and family values stuff. Except being more anti-gay than they were trending when McCain and Romney were the standard bearers.

I from a really conservative family and I didn't really pay attention much or felt ultimately it didn't really matter until the gay marriage shit. That got me paying more attention.

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


Leftists are the only ones who can be up by 40 points and still draw out a diagram detailing a potential path to failure.

Republicans make up a third of this nation. If we get the other two-thirds to vote, we win handily. Even then, that third is being chipped away at because they're dying out and being replaced by multicultural youth who would have to be convinced to vote against their own best interests if white supremacy is to be the law of the land.

The GOP must evolve or die. Never forget that Dixiecrats were a thing. When bigotry is no longer profitable, the party will do housecleaning. For the most part, bigotry is a tool and not the agenda. (There are exceptions who are sincere in their hatred. Those ones will have to be weeded out.) That's what racism has always been: an excuse to maintain the economic status of the elite. There will be other ways to try and cheat society. This one is slowly dying.

I don't think age automatically equals a conservative attitude.

Same, still liberal as ever.

Fucked up part is based on my income I could have a valid reason to vote Republican but their social policies absolutely fucking disgust me. I also don't mind paying more taxes either if it helps others.

Medussa posted...

libertarian Independent who never wants Republicans or Libertarians to be in power.

and by this time next year, i expect to be an actual Democrat.

in literally 25 years. that seems insane, in hindsight.

Perhaps you are more of a libertarian socialist, which is at odds with people who typically label themselves as libertarian?

I was raised somewhat centrist - In a religious African American household. The parts that were left-wing were due to necessity from being a minority, so it was overall right wing.

When I was young, I was so baffled how Bush Jr. won the presidency when he sounded like an idiot. Then we had to go through forever wars, and it seemed like there was much more outward lunacy (racism towards brown people) that I never noticed in the 90s. Then he won again in 2004.

I was still stubbornly apolitical (ugh) all the way until covid, though I did vote for Democrats once I could. There were a few other factors:

-My partner convinced me that being pro-choice was the correct path
-I became further disgusted by the institution of the church, and the fact that church leadership never calls out the numerous cases of corruption and misconduct.
-Increasing levels of class consciousness as I see so many of my friends struggle.

Who would have thought that continuously refusing to enact policies that would prevent them from being murdered while they were trying to go to school would backfire!

FortuneCookie posted...

Leftists are the only ones who can be up by 40 points and still draw out a diagram detailing a potential path to failure.

Republicans make up a third of this nation. If we get the other two-thirds to vote, we win handily. Even then, that third is being chipped away at because they're dying out and being replaced by multicultural youth who would have to be convinced to vote against their own best interests if white supremacy is to be the law of the land.

The GOP must evolve or die. Never forget that Dixiecrats were a thing. When bigotry is no longer profitable, the party will do housecleaning. For the most part, bigotry is a tool and not the agenda. (There are exceptions who are sincere in their hatred. Those ones will have to be weeded out.) That's what racism has always been: an excuse to maintain the economic status of the elite. There will be other ways to try and cheat society. This one is slowly dying.

Dixiecrats stopped being a thing because they all started voting republican because of Nixon's southern strategy.

Bush sinched reelection when the US army captured Saddam Hussein. Take that out of the equation and we would have seen a different outcome in '04.

It also probably comes from conservatives staunchly refusing to make a single bit of progress socially.

Like, gay rights are becoming more and more popular, and the GOP is still pretty opposed to them. That's a deal breaker for a lot of people just on its own.

So whats going on that millennials are becoming more liberal but the future generations are becoming more conservative?

darkprince45 posted...

So whats going on that millennials are becoming more liberal but the future generations are becoming more conservative?

lack of intellectual maturity on the part of "future generations" as you put it

YellowSUV posted...

The 1st generation in American history to have less resources than their parents. What a shocking development they aren't becoming more conservative.

This. It isn't even about the ass backwards policies, it's that people with property and money tend to vote to benefit their financial interests.

But really though, the historical trend is an example of survivor bias. People who didn't have financial stuff to make their lives comfortable and so on don't tend to live nearly as long as their wealthier peers. And those poorer people tend to prioritize policies that benefit everyone both socially and economically. And not just out of self interest but because they have suffered and developed a strong sense of empathy for others whose struggles may differ from their own.

There is no reason to buy into an ideology that has nothing but contempt for you.

ScazarMeltex posted...

Dixiecrats stopped being a thing because they all started voting republican because of Nixon's southern strategy.

Even if that is the case, neither party will be able to sustain a platform of racism, veiled or open, for much longer. White people are a dwindling majority and it isn't White people vs People of Color. It's People of Color and White people who aren't bigoted against White people who are bigoted. It's an ever-dwindling demographic.

If this nation can be ruled by the 20% of the nation that hates because the overwhelming majority of the nation would rather remain docile than fight for one another, then it's the inactivity of the good which has doomed this nation. I don't know how badly you want to be a victim, but I see a victory that is easily within our grasp if we but work together to claim it.

Man, who woulda thought resisting change and trying to keep America like it was in the 50s would lose its draw when people who can only look at those times with contempt and sadness for how people were treated start becoming the majority.

Man, I can't English. I'm too tired. I think that gets what I'm trying to say across now.

Probably because Millenials have nothing to conserve.

darkprince45 posted...

So whats going on that millennials are becoming more liberal but the future generations are becoming more conservative?

That was debunked. Gen Z ain't becoming more conservative, lol.

Isnt that what the graph is literally showing?

darkprince45 posted...

Isnt that what the graph is literally showing?

millenials are the latest generation on the graph

Fair next

Oh my bad I read gen X as Z. I stand corrected

FortuneCookie posted...

Even if that is the case, neither party will be able to sustain a platform of racism, veiled or open, for much longer. White people are a dwindling majority and it isn't White people vs People of Color. It's People of Color and White people who aren't bigoted against White people who are bigoted. It's an ever-dwindling demographic.

Race is purely a social construct. What is considered white, black, any other race has changed over time. In the 1800s if someone had ANY traceable black ancestors they were considered black. Only specific Western Europeans were considered white. Irish and Italians were not considered white in the 1800s even though today the vast majority of America would consider these people white. Whiteness was eventually expanded to include all Europeans in part to keep the racist system in America alive.

I wouldn't be too surprised if "whiteness" expands once again to prop up racism. Perhaps Latinos and Indians* (*the country in Asia) will join the umbrella of "whiteness" in the future. That said, maybe I'm wrong and the cycle will be broken, but racism and the social construct of race is powerful tool used by the rich elites to divide the poor and middle class.

One other thing to consider is the disproportionate power Republicans have in the government. Tons of low population Midwest and mountain states full of white people (going by what is currently considered "white") will keep Republicans in disproportionate power in the Senate for a long time.

I really can't imagine why not. Millennials have just done so well economically with republican policy and have seen the great social changes supported by republican politicians. Why wouldn't they be more conservative?

As a millennial

I'm a believer in massive government that functions and provides for the safety, security, and health of all members of its citizenry

Republicans are believers in government that doesn't function at all and that government only exists to enrich the rich even further.

So I wonder why I'm trudging further and further left as I age

American conservatism isn't even really conservatism anymore. It's just being a dick to marginalized people for no reason.

Millennials are ruining corporations now! :c

Maybe the trend of seeing our social systems tangle and strangle before our eyes while the government seems to do nothing but fight for the golden apples at the top of the tree has something to do with it. Plus, conservatism seems to go hand in hand with nationalism and alt-right ideologies nowadays. Fuck that shit.