Board 8 > Random thought: it's really easy to predict how good a game will be.

(+) Yeah! (+)

This isn't the norm in most media industries! With movies, trailers can be super misleading, and hyped sequels to great movies can be awful. Same goes with TV. With books and music, you have even less to go off of - just trust that the creator won't screw up.

Games, however, show so much of themselves pre-release that once you've been around for a while (and know how to spot bullshit PR statements) it's not hard to predict how good it will be long before it comes out. While there are some outliers, overall I can't remember the last time a game came out that was wildly better/worse than what people expected. Maybe Cyberpunk, but that was a result of lots of straight-up false advertising, and lots of people realized the writing on the wall when it got delayed repeatedly.

Maybe this is different if you...I don't know, only play obscure unproven indie games, but I think it largely holds up throughout the industry.

I generally have a pretty predictable window of how much I'll like a game before I start playing it but I have been disappointed or surprised more than a few times. I have a pretty good idea of what I like, but sometimes a game gets overwhelmingly positive reviews on Steam and it just doesn't hit for me

Paratroopa1 posted...

I generally have a pretty predictable window of how much I'll like a game before I start playing it but I have been disappointed or surprised more than a few times. I have a pretty good idea of what I like, but sometimes a game gets overwhelmingly positive reviews on Steam and it just doesn't hit for me

Well yeah, everyone has personal preferences and edge cases. I was speaking in more of a broader sense. I'm sure there's people that loved God of War 2018 and despised Ragnarok, but Ragnarok was expected to be a worthy follow-up, and for most people it was.

Even then, though, I find that my personal preference for games is easier to predict than for other media.

For the most part probably. There were definitely times I thought a game was going to be good only to wind up being burned though unfortunately. Some were within the last few years even. Usually though yeah I feel like its not difficult to tell if something will be good/be the sort of game youd like.

Maybe if it's an omega established series and genre, but in general I disagree. A million things about a game can be "well done" and make it look really cool or that it should be good - but unless the dev really gets the feel of gameplay right and keeps the gameplay loop refreshing and satisfying, a game can get tedious, boring and/or frustrating real fast.

It can even hit all that just right for most people, but for whatever reason if it doesn't hit right with *you* then it's a dud.

I think Cyberpunk should count here. Perhaps there were signs but people also had their CDPR blinders set to max at the time.

I believe Balan Wonderworld made it pretty close to release before the jig was up. I don't think reception blew up until the demo came out. Although even without the demo, it wouldn't survive the pre-release review period.

If you wanted to make a Forspoken thread, just make a Forspoken thread!

it's true for big games, yeah. I can play a shooter or big budget RPG and know what I'm getting into. it's a good argument for moving away from that stuff.

I find movies/TV easier personally. I just assume I won't like them and I'm usually right.

Games are way easier to predict than books though, yeah.

I can usually tell ahead of time if I'll like it or not, at the very least.

colliding posted...

If you wanted to make a Forspoken thread, just make a Forspoken thread!

Forspoken semi-inspired this topic, but it's an idea that's been percolating inside my head for a while.

KamikazePotato posted...

This isn't the norm in most media industries! With movies, trailers can be super misleading, and hyped sequels to great movies can be awful.

What're some movies you were surprised were good/bad after trailers making you think otherwise?

Doom 2016 is the recent major example of a game that blew away pre-release expectations for the better

I do think it's really easy to predict how good a game will be. Or more specifically, how much I will like the game

I'm at the point where any exception stands out in my memory. Nidhogg 2 looks absolutely awful in trailers and gameplay footage, yet is somehow incredibly fun

Oh yeah then how good will GTA 8 be

pretty gr8

Auteur theory would definitely dispute the notion that you can't predict the quality of films ahead of time, at least in a general sense. Among non-auteurs you can't predict quality sure, but you can't predict quality for stuff like mobile games either.

I don't know, this whole topic seems built on a foundation that a game is can be objectively "good"

In terms of overall reception sure though of course quality is subjective.

KamikazePotato posted...

While there are some outliers, overall I can't remember the last time a game came out that was wildly better/worse than what people expected.

The Callisto Protocol like a month ago. I would say you still get a big disappointment or two every year.

There's enough exceptions and near-misses to expectation for this to be too clear cut. If you think a game will be an 8 and it's actually a 7, do you count that as a correct prediction? There's a lot of those in games, and I think those should count as mispredictions. It's still easier than for movies and TV, sure.

But what is unique about games is that in the first 5% or so you can really well predict how the other 95% will go.

Wanted to prove the topic wrong but the only example I thought of was Cyberpunk which was already mentioned

Also stuff like technical problems (oe Pokemon SV) is not something we can predict either

There is also the example of GTA Trilogy but in that case we didn't know because we didn't get any info, but that by itself was a giant red flag

Nanis23 posted...

Also stuff like technical problems (oe Pokemon SV) is not something we can predict either

The disastrous frame rate was in the trailers. I think they showed the scene with the Sunflora following the player character a few times.