Current Events > Fermi paradox is dumb tbh

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It accounts for (near) infinite spatial vastness but doesn't bother to consider the measurable age of the universe. Maybe it takes longer than the current age of the universe for a civilization to develop feasible space travel.

Dumb dumb Fermi.

And thats why aliens dont exist. There would have to be two societies exploring space AT THE SAME TIME. out of 8 billion years we went to the moon only 100 years ago.

vegeta415 posted...

And thats why aliens dont exist. There would have to be two societies exploring space AT THE SAME TIME. out of 8 billion years we went to the moon only 100 years ago.

Just cause a civilization isn't flying around space doesn't mean they don't exist. We can only go to the moon, but we surely exist. There are probably aliens out there. Maybe they are just like us. And still haven't escaped their solar system

lilORANG posted...

Maybe it takes longer than the current age of the universe for a civilization to develop feasible space travel.

We're within centuries of it. If it takes longer than the current age of the universe and no one has developed it, that assumes we will likely be the first to develop it based on where we're at now. It would also imply that we happen to be the most evolutionarily optimized species in the universe for developing space travel, which is incredibly unlikely.

Oh they're out there. We don't see it probably because it's not happening in our galaxy. There are trillions of galaxies, surely there must be thousands of them with galactic empires or at least space faring civs.

The paradox came about from lunchtime musings between Fermi and some others, and the vast distances (which would go hand-in-hand with the difficulty of developing adequate space travel) was like the main reason they settled on. It's not like it was a subject of serious lifetime research and he never thought of that.

The album by Tub Ring is not dumb, however.

I could look at a distant star right now and wonder whether it now or in the past has had intelligent life capable of communication or space travel.

Let's assume it did.

Electromagnetic signals would be basically indistinguishable from noise.

Anything short of a Dyson sphere would be undetectable as proof of intelligence.

It's a lot easier to look at a star and assume that there's bacteria somewhere within that system.

Even accepting they exist they would have to thousands of light years away so unless we figure out wormholes, it wouldnt matter.

I mean, it sounds like you're using the fermi paradox to correctly conclude that space travel is a stupid butt sci-fi idea and people should shut the fuck up about it being a thing we're gonna do at some point.

So the Fermi paradox is useful and not dumb.

Starks posted...

It's a lot easier to look at a star and assume that there's bacteria somewhere within that system.

i coulda sworn they found a bacteria type thing on one of those super moons.

Starks posted...

I could look at a distant star right now and wonder whether it now or in the past has had intelligent life capable of communication or space travel.

Let's assume it did.

Electromagnetic signals would be basically indistinguishable from noise.

Anything short of a Dyson sphere would be undetectable as proof of intelligence.

It's a lot easier to look at a star and assume that there's bacteria somewhere within that system.

What's crazy is that the star you're looking at is only in our galaxy. In fact, all of the stars in the sky are in our galaxy. We are only measuring our basis on life from our galaxy. I don't think that's enough. We need to start looking at other galaxies for life...implausible considering our tech, but...it's starting to feel like maybe The Milky Way doesn't have any space faring aliens and definitely not empires.

Or maybe all of the intelligent aliens are on the other side of the galaxy. We just can't see them because of all of the dust and clouds covering the center of the galaxy. Maybe they don't come here because this side of the galaxy is dangerous...? Too many black holes or disturbances in space? Hmmm lol. There are many reasons, including what TC is saying: It takes a while for intelligence to emerge.

Or maybe we're in a part of the galaxy and universe where there isn't much life. Maybe other parts of the universe is teeming with life and prosperity between aliens. Maybe we got unlucky while all of those aliens out some far off galaxies are enjoying life with each other. I really think it's the latter.

The Fermi Paradox generally only refers to the Milky Way.

Pikachuchupika posted...

What's crazy is that the star you're looking at is only in our galaxy. In fact, all of the stars in the sky are in our galaxy. We are only measuring our basis on life from our galaxy. I don't think that's enough. We need to start looking at other galaxies for life...implausible considering our tech, but...it's starting to feel like maybe The Milky Way doesn't have any space faring aliens and definitely not empires.

Huh? There's 100-400 billion stars in just this galaxy. Over about 100-200k light years. We don't even know the exact numbers.

Life can be everywhere and we would never know it because we've been detecting signals long enough for maybe 100 light years and we're located in a pretty "rural" area.

The Andromeda Galaxy has 1 trillion stars. It could be ruled by a galactic empire, and there will never be any way to tell because it's 2.5 million light years from here.

lilORANG posted...

It accounts for (near) infinite spatial vastness but doesn't bother to consider the measurable age of the universe. Maybe it takes longer than the current age of the universe for a civilization to develop feasible space travel.

Dumb dumb Fermi.

Exactly what my arguement was during the alien craze month ago. In the milky war another race living at the same time as us and being able for intersteller space travel is slim to none. It just takes one disaster and life would be snuffed out. We got lucky somewhat because of how our solar system is set up. Other places don't have that luxury. its like waka-mole. One starts another dies out. So if somehow we ever travel the galaxy I think we will find alot of dead places

The Fermi Paradox proper only considers the Milky Way galaxy, hardly an infinite spatial vastness.

HornyLevel posted...

Huh? There's 100-400 billion stars in just this galaxy. Over about 100-200k light years. We don't even know the exact numbers.

Life can be everywhere and we would never know it because we've been detecting signals long enough for maybe 100 light years and we're located in a pretty "rural" area.

The Andromeda Galaxy has 1 trillion stars. It could be ruled by a galactic empire, and there will never be any way to tell because it's 2.5 million light years from here.

You're right. Our galaxy alone has a lot of stars and we've barely scratched the surface looking around and only just started a few decades ago.

The Great Filter doe

vycebrand2 posted...

So if somehow we ever travel the galaxy I think we will find alot of dead places

This is giving me existential dread vibes.

And anywhere outside of our galaxy we are looking in the past. So anything out there might be dead too.

This is from the Simulation Arguement. I think SA isn't proveable but here is the paragraphs I remember from it that hit home.

"One can imagine hypothetical situations were we have such evidence as would trump knowledge of Pf . For example, if we discovered that we were about to be hit by a giant meteor, this might suggest that we had been exceptionally unlucky. We could then assign a credence to DOOM larger than our expectation of the fraction of humanlevel civilizations that fail to reach posthumanity. In the actual case, however, we seem to lack evidence for thinking that we are special in this regard, for better or worse. Proposition (1) doesnt by itself imply that we are likely to go extinct soon, only that we are unlikely to reach a posthuman stage. This possibility is compatible with us remaining at, or somewhat above, our current level of technological development for a long time before going extinct. Another way for (1) to be true is if it is likely that technological civilization will collapse. Primitive human societies might then remain on Earth indefinitely. There are many ways in which humanity could become extinct before reaching posthumanity. Perhaps the most natural interpretation of (1) is that we are likely to go extinct as a result of the development of some powerful but dangerous technology.13 One candidate is molecular nanotechnology, which in its mature stage would enable the construction of selfreplicating nanobots capable of feeding on dirt and organic matter a kind of mechanical bacteria. Such nanobots, designed for malicious ends, could cause the extinction of all life on our planet"

vegeta415 posted...

Even accepting they exist they would have to thousands of light years away so unless we figure out wormholes, it wouldnt matter.

The possibility of life within our own solar system is still under debate, so no..

Many still consider Titan, Europa, and Mars to have potential for undiscovered life below their surfaces. Venus is considered to have potential for undiscovered life in its atmosphere.

VFalcone posted...

The possibility of life within our own solar system is still under debate, so no..

Many still consider Titan, Europa, and Mars to have potential for undiscovered life below their surfaces. Venus is considered to have potential for undiscovered life in its atmosphere.

There is life and intelligent life. Life might be out there but intelligent life? No. The odds are stacked against that

vycebrand2 posted...

There is life and intelligent life. Life might be out there but intelligent life? No. The odds are stacked against that

The idea that there is no other intelligent life in the universe is based on nothing but human ignorance, arrogance, hopelessness, or all of them combined.

It's ridiculous (but 100% human) to assume that we're somehow the only intelligent beings in the entire universe.

"I've never seen it, so it never happens"

The Fermi Paradox is an observation, not an explanation.

I feel like one day we will find aliens through a telescope or something. It will be glorious. I wonder how people will react.

vycebrand2 posted...

There is life and intelligent life. Life might be out there but intelligent life? No. The odds are stacked against that

What are those odds? And what is the size of the universe?

If the universe is large enough, it will contain exact replica of our world. If it is infinite, it will contain infinitely many of them.

ai123 posted...

What are those odds? And what is the size of the universe?

If the universe is large enough, it will contain exact replica of our world. If it is infinite, it will contain infinitely many of them.

Again time is the issue. Another galaxy from our perpective we are looking into past. Think of it like a train. We are in the late to middle cars. Those other civilizations are towards the engine. We are as a intelligent race are only 100k years old and only 100 years putting out any thing like a beacon to say here we are. If there was a thing with 100ly looking at us #1 would have to be looking for the signs. #2 anything we put out would be degraded. We only started looking in the 60's. They could have sent a hello message and we missed it because we were not looking at the right place and right time. In other words we are all living in bubbles right next to each other but not seeing the other bubble is there.

vycebrand2 posted...

Again time is the issue. Another galaxy from our perpective we are looking into past. Think of it like a train. We are in the late to middle cars. Those other civilizations are towards the engine. We are as a intelligent race are only 100k years old and only 100 years putting out any thing like a beacon to say here we are. If there was a thing with 100ly looking at us #1 would have to be looking for the signs. #2 anything we put out would be degraded. We only started looking in the 60's. They could have sent a hello message and we missed it because we were not looking at the right place and right time. In other words we are all living in bubbles right next to each other but not seeing the other bubble is there.

See that I agree with.

There is no possibility of contact between civilizations until long after one has crumbled into dust. The distances are just too large.

But the odds are that they do exist

vegeta415 posted...

i coulda sworn they found a bacteria type thing on one of those super moons.

No. They found that there's warm water on one of them. That's an extremely big deal, but still no proof of life.

Did. Only in the Milky way and local. Are they still around? Maybe. Do they have the same level of tech or higher? Maybe. Are they looking for us? Maybe. Are they scared of us? Maybe. Thats a lot of maybes.