Current Events > RFK Jr. really hurting Trump in new poll

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[deleted]
10/18/23 11:04:40 AM
#10:


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brestugo
10/18/23 11:20:37 AM
#1:


https://www.newsweek.com/rfk-jr-poll-independent-trump-biden-2024-election-1835710

Former Democratic turned independent presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may pull votes away from Donald Trump and improve Joe Biden's chances of reelection in 2024, according to a poll.

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey of 1,218 registered voters, conducted on October 11, found that Biden narrowly beats Trumpthe two presumptuous Democratic and GOP presidential candidatesin a hypothetical head to head by 49 to 46 percent.

However, when Kennedy is introduced in the poll as a third candidate, Biden's lead over Trump increases by seven points (44 to 37 percent), with Kennedy getting the support of 16 percent of voters. With Kennedy in the race, Biden's support falls five points among Democrats, whereas Trump loses 10 points among Republicans.

The results suggest that Kennedy, who previously challenged Biden in the Democratic presidential primary before confirming earlier this month he is switching to an independent candidacy in his long shot White House bid, may have an oversized influence in determining who wins the 2024 election.

With numerous polls suggesting Democratic voters do not want 80-year-old Biden to run for president again, it was believed that Kennedy may provide an alternative to these potential disillusioned voters as an independent candidate.

However, Kennedy, who has pushed misinformation about COVID-19 and vaccines, appears to be better liked among GOP voters and may syphon votes away from Trump in a 2024 election.

"Although it's always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden's favor," Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement.

Trump's office has been contacted for comment via email.

Third party candidates are often cited as being responsible for pulling votes away from Democratic challengers, as seen with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader in the 2000 election which Al Gore narrowly lost to George W. Bush in a race that essentially boiled down to just a few hundred votes in Florida.

Nader received more than 2.8 million votes overall in the 2000 election, including more than 97,000 votes in Florida.

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton lost three key states to Trump by less than one percentage pointMichigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsinhelping pave the way for the Republican's victory.

In each case, Green Party candidate Jill Stein had received enough votes in the three states to have swung it for Clinton if her supporters backed the Democrat instead.

[story continues]

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Bass
10/18/23 11:22:06 AM
#2:


Lmao

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#3
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Tyranthraxus
10/18/23 11:24:41 AM
#4:


Inject it straight into my veins

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Simon_Gruber
10/18/23 11:25:12 AM
#5:


Which Kennedy is this? Is he the one who died but they think came back to life Jesus style?
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CoyoteTheGreat
10/18/23 11:25:30 AM
#6:


I mean, it makes sense. Kennedy is the only candidate who offers something to Trump's followers that's more than what Trump offers. He is willing to just dispense with dog whistling conspiracy theories and outright say them. The only one who could take more votes from Trump would be Alex Jones. Its funny that none of the actual Republicans in the race understand this, because if they were smart and wanted to beat Trump, they'd flood the primary with tailor-made candidates promoting every popular conspiracy theory.

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Tyranthraxus
10/18/23 11:25:42 AM
#7:


Simon_Gruber posted...
Which Kennedy is this? Is he the one who died but they think came back to life Jesus style?
No it's his cousin.

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brestugo
10/18/23 11:28:48 AM
#8:


CoyoteTheGreat posted...
I mean, it makes sense. Kennedy is the only candidate who offers something to Trump's followers that's more than what Trump offers. He is willing to just dispense with dog whistling conspiracy theories and outright say them. The only one who could take more votes from Trump would be Alex Jones. Its funny that none of the actual Republicans in the race understand this.

Some of the Boomer Trump voters (Reagan Democrats?) may actually still be swayed by the "Kennedy Mystique" bullshit also.

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#9
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brestugo
10/18/23 5:04:54 PM
#11:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


He's probably got a strong social media campaign if he's peddling conspiracy stuff. They may already know.

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LSGW_Zephyra
10/18/23 5:05:41 PM
#12:


Honestly it would be an improvement if Trump blames RFK for his next loss then a rigged election

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DeathVelvien
10/18/23 5:07:01 PM
#13:


LSGW_Zephyra posted...
Honestly it would be an improvement if Trump blames RFK for his next loss then a rigged election
He'll just blame both tbh

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Kradek
10/18/23 5:08:31 PM
#14:


Simon_Gruber posted...
Which Kennedy is this? Is he the one who died but they think came back to life Jesus style?

He's the one whose anti-vax position caused a deadly outbreak of measles in Samoa in 2019. He's also a Putin propagandist.

But if you've ever heard him speak, he sounds like the "old man knocking on death's door" image the media paints Biden as, even though I know it's a medical condition RFK Jr. has, it's his sound.

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UnfairRepresent
10/18/23 5:08:39 PM
#15:


It was fun to watch Fox instantly 180 on RFK the moment he became a threat to Trump

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thronedfire2
10/18/23 5:09:42 PM
#16:


100% chance Trump says Jr was bought by the Democrats if he loses

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#17
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ThyCorndog
10/18/23 5:14:33 PM
#18:


Hilarious if true

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brestugo
10/18/23 5:14:44 PM
#19:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


If it were a movie I wouldn't buy a ticket.

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Kradek
10/18/23 5:16:08 PM
#20:


brestugo posted...
If it were a movie I wouldn't buy a ticket.

It'd never get made because it'd be considered too ludicrous for any studio to touch.

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BurmesePenguin
10/18/23 5:18:15 PM
#21:


Isn't it most likely Kennedy will have dropped out by the election or that Trump-"leaners" who say right now they will support him would mostly vote for Trump anyway on election day?

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brestugo
10/18/23 5:27:07 PM
#22:


BurmesePenguin posted...
Isn't it most likely Kennedy will have dropped out by the election or that Trump-"leaners" who say right now they will support him would mostly vote for Trump anyway on election day?

We'll see.

He still has to get on the ballot in every state - not an easy task for an independent (that's on purpose and there could be 50 different sets of requirements in front of him).

Cornel West likely won't be able to do it. Kennedy, with his name and money, might pull it off.

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tremain07
10/18/23 5:30:05 PM
#23:


If the Trump campaign were smart they'd be trying to get Kennedy to run with Trump as his VP but nah, they're gonna attack him, Trump's ego simply will not stand for anything but a shallow of a human being who will do anything and everything he demands of them no matter how illegal it is. Remember, this is the same jerkass who was quoted as asking for his own Harold Cone or Agnew

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mybbqrules
10/18/23 5:55:07 PM
#24:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

I'm really pulling for Trump losing even worse than last time.

The meltdowns will be glorious to behold. Well, if Fandom lets us behold them, that is.

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008Zulu
10/18/23 6:01:11 PM
#25:


Trump facing de-listment from the ballot in multiple states, and a not insignificant prison sentence won't do his chances any favours.

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Agonized_rufous
10/18/23 6:05:54 PM
#26:


Wish he didn't have a vocal issue so debated would be spicier

Keeping unwanted metals out of the rivers and children

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Justin2Krelian
10/18/23 6:12:12 PM
#27:


Maybe this will get Republicans to support RCV

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Justin2Krelian
10/18/23 6:15:36 PM
#28:


Is that the highest a declared Independent/Third party candidate has polled since Perot?

I know they almost always poll better than they result, so Im guessing Gary Johnson went over 10% a few times in 2016.

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UnholyMudcrab
10/18/23 6:17:59 PM
#29:


Justin2Krelian posted...
Is that the highest a declared Independent/Third party candidate has polled since Perot?

I know they almost always poll better than they result, so Im guessing Gary Johnson went over 10% a few times in 2016.
Johnson generally polled around 6% and ended up with a little over 3% in the election.

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MICHALECOLE
10/18/23 6:18:42 PM
#30:


Old men democrats who I play poker with love RFK jr
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Inohira
10/18/23 6:26:32 PM
#31:


I guess people learning more about what RFK stands for flipped him from taking from Biden to taking from Trump.

If that holds then Trump is doomed.

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brestugo
10/18/23 6:29:19 PM
#32:


Justin2Krelian posted...
Is that the highest a declared Independent/Third party candidate has polled since Perot?

I know they almost always poll better than they result, so Im guessing Gary Johnson went over 10% a few times in 2016.

Those numbers are pretty high. It's just one poll though and we're still over a year out. Almost guaranteed to change. Can't imagine Trump's campaign is taking this well though.

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Jiek_Fafn
10/18/23 6:29:59 PM
#33:


Can Trump fight crazy?

I don't think his standard attack plan will work if the opponent accuses him of keeping his dead cousin kept locked away all in one piece .

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Shotgunnova
10/18/23 6:36:20 PM
#34:


https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/2/8/1/AABhrNAAEWY5.jpg


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thronedfire2
10/18/23 7:31:31 PM
#35:


brestugo posted...
Those numbers are pretty high. It's just one poll though and we're still over a year out. Almost guaranteed to change. Can't imagine Trump's campaign is taking this well though.

these numbers only seem so high because Trump's numbers have been inflated as the only possible candidate. No one has taken DeSantis seriously this whole time since he's just Trump with no charisma, but moderates might actually be swayed by a supposed independent

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brestugo
10/19/23 6:13:25 AM
#36:


Jiek_Fafn posted...
Can Trump fight crazy?

I don't think his standard attack plan will work if the opponent accuses him of keeping his dead cousin kept locked away all in one piece .

Yeah, RFK can get way "out there" with some of his views. Unlike Trump, he seems to believe them too.

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Unsuprised_Pika
10/19/23 3:10:14 PM
#37:


[LFAQs-redacted-quote]


RFK runs independent
Trump is convicted after securing the nomination
GOP continues to focus on unpopular issues that erode their support while energizing dems.

Imagine if republicans STILL don't have speaker by then.

Biden landslide. Big blue wave.

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MuscleRobo
10/19/23 3:12:27 PM
#38:


Is it true RFK is for reparations? I heard some people talking about it on twitter but can only find one article talking about it. If he really is there goes the Trump supporters.
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#39
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brestugo
10/19/23 6:43:53 PM
#40:


MuscleRobo posted...
Is it true RFK is for reparations? I heard some people talking about it on twitter but can only find one article talking about it. If he really is there goes the Trump supporters.

Yep, came out in favor of it, and I agree that kills him with Trump supporters.

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sfcalimari
10/19/23 6:46:08 PM
#41:


Putin about to stop funding him

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Billyionaire
10/19/23 6:53:50 PM
#42:


If this trend in polling continues he's just going to drop out before the election. This doesn't materially change anything.

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Agent_Stroud
10/19/23 6:54:22 PM
#43:


brestugo posted...
Yep, came out in favor of it, and I agree that kills him with Trump supporters.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/6/3/2/AAR6WtAADfiw.jpg

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haloiscoolisbak
10/19/23 7:28:22 PM
#44:


brestugo posted...
Yep, came out in favor of it, and I agree that kills him with Trump supporters.

Sounds like RFK has some absolute scattershot views both good and bad

Champion for civil rights yet distrusts vaccines and science

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Agonized_rufous
10/20/23 9:43:52 AM
#45:


One of his bigger fun views is how he absolutely disagrees with how cozy Big-oil/pharma/war/etc is with politicians and it's funny to hear him dance around bad mouthing alphabet organizations

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2Pacavelli
10/20/23 9:46:27 AM
#46:


brestugo posted...
In each case, Green Party candidate Jill Stein had received enough votes in the three states to have swung it for Clinton if her supporters backed the Democrat instead.

Good for her. I actually voted for her (Jill Stein) in 2016 myself
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Heineken14
10/20/23 9:51:15 AM
#47:


2Pacavelli posted...


Good for her. I actually voted for her (Jill Stein) in 2016 myself


So you're glad Donnie won?

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2Pacavelli
10/20/23 9:53:52 AM
#48:


Heineken14 posted...
So you're glad Donnie won?

Glad I voted for a candidate that represented the issues I value. The more third party candidates become viable the better off this country will be
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brestugo
10/20/23 9:56:22 AM
#49:


Jill Stein is a Russian asset.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/user_image/6/8/5/AAcJoVAAE9D9.jpg

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Heineken14
10/20/23 10:23:10 AM
#50:


2Pacavelli posted...


Glad I voted for a candidate that represented the issues I value. The more third party candidates become viable the better off this country will be


So you don't understand how our voting system is set up and you are glad Donnie won. Got it.

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