Current Events > Porter and Schiff "neck and neck" in CA Senate race

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https://abc7.com/california-senate-race-adam-schiff-katie-porter-uc-berkeley-institute-of-governmental-studies/14009463/

The race to fill the late California Senator Dianne Feinstein's seat is on, and according to a new poll, Representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter are neck and neck.

The poll was conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and was co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times.

It shows Porter and Schiff at the top among likely voters, with Porter at 17% and Schiff at 16%. The top two finishers in the March 5 primary, regardless of party affiliation, will move on to the November runoff.

However, 30% of likely voters are still undecided.

"To the extent that they're making up their minds, they're making up their minds on very small differences between these candidates, so I would think that there's still a lot of room for any candidate in this race to grow," said Jim Newton, a lecturer at UCLA's Luskin School of Public Affairs.

Seeing slight growth from the last poll, Democratic Congresswoman Barbara Lee of Oakland is at 9% and former Major League Baseball MVP and beloved Dodger Steve Garvey stands at 10%. Garvey is running as a Republican.

"Garvey just entered the race and he's basically getting more support now than the two other Republicans who had been in the race for some time," said Mark di Camillo, the Director of the Berkeley IGS Poll. "That's significant. I think he needs to consolidate the support of Republican voters."

But there's roughly twice as many registered Democrats in California than registered Republicans.

"At best, I would say he's got a chance to make the runoff if there's a crowded Democratic field, but that's just a chance to lose in November really," said Newton.

The poll also asked whether participants believe the candidates would fight uncompromisingly for what they believe in - 64% said that attribute was a positive factor while 15% said it was a negative factor.

"I think voters are not in the mood for negotiating with the other party these days," said Di Camillo. "It's really just saying what you believe and holding to it. Porter has been strong on that and actually, Steve Garvey's voters think he'll do that as well."

In terms of fundraising, Porter and Schiff are way ahead and they haven't even began airing television ads. Once that starts, that could change the race.

One of the few cases where I'm just excited to see who wins.

Either would be a fantastic senator. Good choice either way.

Let's go Porter! Why would we not want the most leftward and electable candidate in a solid Dem state? Not having at least a progressive if not a DSA type is just leaving points on the board.

Does this mean both lose their house seat?

[LFAQs-redacted-quote]

But they won't be able to run for both the House and Senate at the same time, so someone will have to win the Democratic primary for those house seats.

Doom_Art posted...

One of the few cases where I'm just excited to see who wins.

Either would be a fantastic senator. Good choice either way.

My only concern is that if Porter wins, that House seat goes Republican. I'd otherwise be happy with any of the Democratic candidates.

Porter's unlikely to win, Republicans are allowed to vote on this race and I doubt they'll let a progressive woman in over a moderate man.

I'll be voting Porter. Fuck Schiff. Wished Barbara Lee had a better chance.

This is going to be an interesting election. Adam clearly is much more qualified, but then again Porter is like everyone's favorite. I think demograhically California should favor Katie more, but experience wise Schiff deserves the seat.

brestugo posted...

My only concern is that if Porter wins, that House seat goes Republican. I'd otherwise be happy with any of the Democratic candidates.

This. We really cant afford to lose that Orange County seat. I used to live there, and its pretty Trumpy. Theres a real risk it will go back to a Republican.

Inohira posted...

Porter's unlikely to win, Republicans are allowed to vote on this race and I doubt they'll let a progressive woman in over a moderate man.

Well there's that, but a lot of CA Dems also don't want to (potentially) trade a House seat just to get Porter in the Senate. The 2 other Democrats in the race could each do a fine job in the Senate.

Sariana21 posted...

This. We really cant afford to lose that Orange County seat. I used to live there, and its pretty Trumpy. Theres a real risk it will go back to a Republican.

I hear that more and more as a reason to support Lee or Schiff. Never hear anything bad about Porter herself, but people really want to keep that seat.

CommonStar posted...

I'll be voting Porter. Fuck Schiff. Wished Barbara Lee had a better chance.

Barbara Lee is nearly 80 years old. Why is she even in the running?

Stubborn geriatrics are the whole reason CA is in this mess with its US Senate seat to begin with.

I don't hate Schiff like a few posters here further left of me, however I'd still prefer Porter because she's just badass.

However, keeping the OC seat, as some people have pointed out, is also valuable in itself. That's a historically red county that so far only Porter has demonstrated she can keep in modern times. I'd love her as a Senator, however we also can't afford to be losing House seats.

Porter > Schiff >>>>> Lee
In terms of who I like.

I don't care which of the two win, I just hope it's decisive early enough that the loser can withdraw and keep his/her House seat. It'd be tragic if either ends up totally out of Congress after this, and Porter's seat is especially precarious since it's a very purple district, I think even slightly red?

So strategy wise, I guess the ideal is Schiff wins and Porter keeps holding that seat that Reps could probably flip if she left it...

Mearcstapa posted...

Barbara Lee is nearly 80 years old. Why is she even in the running?

Stubborn geriatrics are the whole reason CA is in this mess with its US Senate seat to begin with.

Same reason Biden is, Old people especially establishment old people do not want to ever give up their power they want it til they die

FWIW, I can't see Schiff's seat going Republican barring something truly spectacular. Even then, there's not much of a GOP there anymore. That's the Burbank area extended, which has a lot of SAG-AFTRA and Writer's Guild types.