Current Events > Do you think we are in a recession?

(+) Yeah! (+)

People are spending less because all of their money goes to high housing costs and high vehicle costs. Idk if that means recession or not

Not particularly

No, were more so in a time of stagflation minus the high unemployment part. Hard to say whats going to happen from here, at least for the short term.

No but we're heading towards one. Demand will drop and consumer spending will decrease, company earnings will start to look worse and the market will eventually start dropping. Growth will halt and we'll start seeing more broad layoffs outside of just tech.

I think we've been on a recession for most of the past several decades.
It gets dressed up as recovery w/ some trickery like low interest rates and funding lifestyles that used to be attainable but now only can be via debt (often credit card debt) periodically, but the fundamental rot -- Reaganomics -- never is addressed and if anything amplified, so the lipstick on the pig occasionally wears off and we call that a "recession" until more is applied to cover up reality.

That's b/c I define economic health based on how the middle class, the median income, and the poor are faring. Not the stock market, GDP, number of billionaires, or any other nonsense metric.

All good answers so far.

Recession isn't an opinion thing.

It's a fall in GDP for two successive quarters.

ai123 posted...

Recession isn't an opinion thing.

It's a fall in GDP for two successive quarters.

That happened but it was never declared a recession.

ai123 posted...

Recession isn't an opinion thing.

It's a fall in GDP for two successive quarters.

confidently incorrect!

while recessions may fall under that criteria, that is not the guiderail for what determines a recession.

no not yet. will be within the next few years unless things change soon.

This housing crisis is going to rock the world economy to its core.

It's absolute insanity

Monolith1676 posted...

That happened but it was never declared a recession.

The US economy has been growing, so I don't see how it's possible to declare a recession at the moment.

That doesn't mean things can't be bad for a lot of people. Who is it that is benefitting from the growth? What policies would ensure a more equitable distribution?

ai123 posted...

The US economy has been growing, so I don't see how it's possible to declare a recession at the moment.

That doesn't mean things can't be bad for a lot of people. Who is it that is benefitting from the growth? What policies would ensure a more equitable distribution?

I think people are fudging the numbers to make it look like growth at this point.

Monolith1676 posted...

That happened but it was never declared a recession.

The government did not want to come out and declare a recession. It would look bad politically and would cost them votes and power.

We are in one and have been in one for a long time.

Anyone saying otherwise is delusional.

Monolith1676 posted...

I think people are fudging the numbers to make it look like growth at this point.

I believe this is part of it was well. I think it was summer of last year, there was a negative quarter, and then a quarter that was positive by like, 0.01% or something microscopically slim, to keep us out of the definition.

Monolith1676 posted...

I think people are fudging the numbers to make it look like growth at this point.

Can you back this claim with data?

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-economic-growth-accelerates-third-quarter-2023-10-26/

Will_VIIII posted...

Can you back this claim with data?

No, I have no data as I said "I think". It does not seem real that there is growth with the state of things across the country at the moment.

Monolith1676 posted...

No, I have no data as I said "I think". It does not seem real that there is growth with the state of things across the country at the moment.

That's not reality though.

The common person is struggling, but the rich are prospering very well due to screwing everyone else over.

Not a technical recession as of yet, but I think disparity accelerated post pandemic as the wealthy were better able to weather it and then capitalize off it. A sudden surge of price inflation and then increased interest rates to combat that has all worked to depress the quality of life for middle and lower classes.

The windfall for the upper class though coupled with higher prices has kept the money moving in the market at a consistent level.

So not exactly a recession, but we will need a new word or at least one I don't know currently to explain the evaporation of quality of life within the lower classes.

nocturnal_traveler posted...

The common person is struggling, but the rich are prospering very well due to screwing everyone else over.

So actually inequality is down the last couple years:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/low-wage-workers-saw-tremendously-fast-wage-growth-since-2019.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/americans-are-finally-getting-raise-thanks-lower-inflation-rcna93844

Intro2Logic posted...

So actually inequality is down the last couple years:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/30/low-wage-workers-saw-tremendously-fast-wage-growth-since-2019.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/americans-are-finally-getting-raise-thanks-lower-inflation-rcna93844

"but experts don't think it will last."

That headline was so true.

Gas is still over $4 per gallon and groceries are the most expensive I've ever seen in my life. You can say it's not a recession if you want, but the economy is certainly fucked up big time.

Heavy_D_Forever posted...

Gas is still over $4 per gallon and groceries are the most expensive I've ever seen in my life. You can say it's not a recession if you want, but the economy is certainly fucked up big time.

Just got a dozen eggs last weekend for 1.49 so

Heavy_D_Forever posted...

Gas is still over $4 per gallon and groceries are the most expensive I've ever seen in my life. You can say it's not a recession if you want, but the economy is certainly fucked up big time.

Fake news.

The economy is bad, regular people are struggling. Only rich people are comfortable.

Heavy_D_Forever posted...

Gas is still over $4 per gallon and groceries are the most expensive I've ever seen in my life. You can say it's not a recession if you want, but the economy is certainly fucked up big time.

Each year groceries will be the most expensive you've seen in your life. Unless you're in a deflation situation or you had supply issues..

Egg prices did go back down as it went up due to a supply issue

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/9/9652380f.jpg

Jx1010 posted...

The economy is bad, regular people are struggling. Only rich people are comfortable.

No it isn't.

Labor productivity up 4.7% last quarter.

Real wages at record highs.

Unemployment near record lows.

Now headline inflation coming in at 0% this month.

The US economy is absolutely CRUSHING it.

Conservatives will keep pounding the drum and claiming things are worse, despite all actual quantifiable data saying otherwise.

Bandit_Keith posted...

Conservatives will keep pounding the drum and claiming things are worse, despite all actual quantifiable data saying otherwise.

Things really don't look good on the surface.

Monolith1676 posted...

Things really don't look good on the surface.

Why do you keep posting misinformation?

Monolith1676 posted...

I think people are fudging the numbers to make it look like growth at this point.

Ah yes, numbers are always "fudged" when a Democrat is president.

Those feeling tend to disappear once a Republican is president.

I wonder why that is. (Rhetorical question, we both know why)

Will_VIIII posted...

Why do you keep posting misinformation?

There is no misinformation saying it does not look good on the surface. Almost everyday I see a news article about businesses shutting down locations and layoffs in several different industries. Even here locally, I have seen more "Now Hiring" signs in business windows in the last few years than I have the previous 15 years before that.

Monolith1676 posted...

There is no misinformation saying it does not look good on the surface. Almost everyday I see a news article about businesses shutting down locations and layoffs in several different industries. Even here locally, I have seen more "Now Hiring" signs in business windows in the last few years than I have the previous 15 years before that.

This has already been explained to you here and in other topics.

No. If we were, unemployment would be high. Stock market would also be in shambles

Will_VIIII posted...

This has already been explained to you here and in other topics.

The keyword is LOOKS.

kage_53 posted...

No. If we were, unemployment would be high. Stock market would also be in shambles

Unemployment numbers can be completely low but actual numbers can be high since the numbers only count people "actively looking for work".

Monolith1676 posted...

Unemployment numbers can be completely low but actual numbers can be high since the numbers only count people "actively looking for work".

This has always been the metric.

Monolith1676 posted...

Unemployment numbers can be completely low but actual numbers can be high since the numbers only count people "actively looking for work".

Sure, but that is only the widely reported U-3, if you look at the U-6 which does account for all that we are still around historically low for since we've been tracking it ( 1994)

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_u_6_unemployment_rate_unadjusted

Yo. Wtf at these results?

2022 kinda sucked, but 2023 has been great. Loving the stock market this year.

Can't believe it's split as it is. I do *not* feel like we're in a recession at all. There's some sort of disconnect here.

Monolith1676 posted...

The keyword is LOOKS.

Which means absolutely nothing to say.

You saying something looks a certain way doesn't reflect reality.

NatsuSama posted...

Which means absolutely nothing to say.

You saying something looks a certain way doesn't reflect reality.

It's the same shit conservatives always do. Because it lets them push BS lies while saying they aren't doing that. The old Fox News, "So people are saying..." line. "Some feel the economy is in shambles right now, and that is directly because of the policies of Joe Biden."