Current Events > Suddenly Trump leads PA Polling

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Sonixs
10/24/24 8:38:16 PM
#1:


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

The guy hasn't led since Biden dropped out and then magically two weeks before the election, people change their minds. Very interesting.

It's almost like the GOP is pumping out fake polls to feed the stolen narrative.
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Diceheist
10/24/24 8:40:58 PM
#2:


Sonixs posted...
It's almost like the GOP is pumping out fake polls to feed the stolen narrative.

They are, but pollsters previously showing Harris leading are also flipping.
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Irony
10/24/24 8:42:29 PM
#3:


Sure Jan

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Neoconkers
10/24/24 8:47:55 PM
#4:


0.3%. it's a dead heat. day by day polling means nothing.

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Vyrulisse
10/24/24 8:48:39 PM
#5:


We need to face the reality that this could go either way.
Basically ignore polls and do your part in voting, that's all you can really do and control.

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Cemith
10/24/24 8:49:08 PM
#6:


Vyrulisse posted...
We need to face the reality that this could go either way.
Basically ignore polls and do your part in voting, that's all you can really do and control.

This. Nothing we can do about it more than vote

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SauI_Goodman
10/24/24 8:49:36 PM
#7:


If it'll make you feel better stay off the internet and turn off the TV for 2 weeks. Complaining isn't going to do anything. Wait it out like the rest of us.

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Sorozone
10/24/24 8:51:07 PM
#8:


One of those polls is a model sponsored by Republicans.

The Emerson poll has 26% of the respondents done via online.

So useless data.

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creativerealms
10/24/24 8:56:15 PM
#9:


Not suddenly. This is going to be close and we won't know who wins until the end. We can be bundles of Nerves and fear for the worse but really that will only cause self harm.

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lilORANG
10/24/24 9:01:08 PM
#10:


Polls are pointless at this point. Voting has started

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Cemith
10/24/24 9:02:07 PM
#11:


creativerealms posted...
Not suddenly. This is going to be close and we won't know who wins until the end. We can be bundles of Nerves and fear for the worse but really that will only cause self harm.

Forget the "end" we'll be lucky to know by the end of the month.

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Diceheist
10/24/24 9:03:52 PM
#12:


But for the record the Quantus Insights poll is junk, they're openly stuffing the averages for Trump: https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump
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Takuya_Lee
10/24/24 9:04:05 PM
#13:


I'm not buying it. Polls are unreliable at best

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CastletonSnob1
10/24/24 9:04:15 PM
#14:


Is there any chance we'll know the winner by the end of the week of November 5?
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ReiRei89
10/24/24 9:07:21 PM
#15:


TC is crying without doing any research as to why 538 flipped. Look at the last couple polls taken. That answers your question as to why. Stop dooming and educate yourself on pollsters. Also 538 removes old polls every couple weeks. What happened is that high quality polls showing Harris up were removed from the model so the trash polls now skew the model even more.

Also two PA Bellwether polls came out today showing that Harris is still the vast favorite. Those bellwether counties almost always flip the way the State flips.

But once again I'll stress that doomers, such as TC, need to chill out and do some actual reading on polls as well as pollsters before freaking the fuck out over bullshit.

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CTsChoco
10/24/24 9:08:35 PM
#16:


CastletonSnob1 posted...
Is there any chance we'll know the winner by the end of the week of November 5?
Depends which combo of swing states gets called early. Though inevitably we'll still be waiting while Trump slides into the Supreme Court.

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darkace77450
10/24/24 9:12:00 PM
#17:


Speaking of Pennsylvania, Politico is painting a bad picture. Hopefully it's just clickbait.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844
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Necronmon
10/24/24 9:12:58 PM
#18:


If it ends up that she should have picked Shapiro as her VP All along...that's going to haunt her and most of the nation for a while.
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ReiRei89
10/24/24 9:15:00 PM
#19:


darkace77450 posted...
Speaking of Pennsylvania, Politico is painting a bad picture. Hopefully it's just clickbait.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844
  1. Politico has been complaining about Harris for months now
  2. Guess you didn't read the article all the way through.
I feel like were going to win here, but were going to win it in spite of the Harris state campaign, said a Democratic elected official in the state, who, like others for this story, was granted anonymity to speak freely about a sensitive matter. Pennsylvania is such a mess, and its incredibly frustrating.

So let's say it is true, they're still saying they're most likely going to win PA despite the supposed drama. So once again dooming over bullshit.

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#20
Post #20 was unavailable or deleted.
Goldice
10/24/24 9:18:06 PM
#21:


darkace77450 posted...
Speaking of Pennsylvania, Politico is painting a bad picture. Hopefully it's just clickbait.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/kamala-harris-pennsylvania-campaign-drama-00183844

I mean this happens every year among winning and losing campaigns, especially when it's close. Trump's campaign in 2016 thought they were fd. Biden's in 2020 had a lot of second guessing.

There's a lot of people, a lot of cash and a lot of egos, opinions and chaos

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Goldice
10/24/24 9:19:37 PM
#22:


Also there is no functional difference between Harris +0.7 and trump +0.7

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BunkerBoy
10/24/24 9:22:57 PM
#23:


So much dooming
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ssb_yunglink2
10/24/24 9:26:48 PM
#24:


There is just simply no way to know who is going to win this election until the votes are counted.

Looking at every single poll as they come out is a recipe for making yourself go insane

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Left4Doge
10/24/24 9:27:17 PM
#25:


Early voting so far has me really positive

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Storm_Shadow
10/24/24 9:32:06 PM
#26:


I'm a bit optimistic about the Presidency and the House, and am hopeful about the Senate, but I'm still buying ammunition and MREs.

What? I grew up in the sticks.

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Zikten
10/24/24 9:33:43 PM
#27:


I blame Elon Musk and his million dollar giveaway
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Justin2Krelian
10/24/24 9:41:03 PM
#28:


ReiRei89 posted...
TC is crying without doing any research as to why 538 flipped. Look at the last couple polls taken. That answers your question as to why. Stop dooming and educate yourself on pollsters. Also 538 removes old polls every couple weeks. What happened is that high quality polls showing Harris up were removed from the model so the trash polls now skew the model even more.

Also two PA Bellwether polls came out today showing that Harris is still the vast favorite. Those bellwether counties almost always flip the way the State flips.

But once again I'll stress that doomers, such as TC, need to chill out and do some actual reading on polls as well as pollsters before freaking the fuck out over bullshit.

Uhh... did you see the last line of TC's post?


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Sonixs
10/24/24 9:50:24 PM
#29:


ReiRei89 posted...
TC is crying without doing any research as to why 538 flipped. Look at the last couple polls taken. That answers your question as to why. Stop dooming and educate yourself on pollsters. Also 538 removes old polls every couple weeks. What happened is that high quality polls showing Harris up were removed from the model so the trash polls now skew the model even more.

Also two PA Bellwether polls came out today showing that Harris is still the vast favorite. Those bellwether counties almost always flip the way the State flips.

But once again I'll stress that doomers, such as TC, need to chill out and do some actual reading on polls as well as pollsters before freaking the fuck out over bullshit.

Maybe read what I posted again before writing up that TED talk of a post.
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Miquella
10/24/24 9:51:56 PM
#30:


Who cares about fake polls, vote!

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BlackScythe0
10/24/24 9:56:40 PM
#31:


If I remember right isn't Trafalgar Group one of the ones they specifically cite as being a fake pollster working to inflate conservative results? Because that was the highest Trump poll recently.

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Ooooooranges
10/24/24 10:02:02 PM
#32:


I really think this Cheney strategy has backfired really badly. Just because there may be a few people left that may be won over by this strategy doesn't mean it's not potentially poison to other potential undecideds. Her poll numbers have gone to hell with this. It's just unimaginable levels of stupidity.

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BlackScythe0
10/24/24 10:03:38 PM
#33:


Ooooooranges posted...
I really think this Cheney strategy has backfired really badly. Just because there may be a few people left that may be won over by this strategy doesn't mean it's not potentially poison to other potential undecideds. Her poll numbers have gone to hell with this. It's just unimaginable levels of stupidity.

Can't tell if serious.
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Charismic_Zach_Gowen
10/24/24 10:04:45 PM
#34:


BlackScythe0 posted...
Can't tell if serious.

Oranges is a diehard Trumper

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TheSuperSilver
10/24/24 10:06:37 PM
#35:


I kind of feel Kamala should've kept her "joyful warriors" vibe and built her nest around abortion rights.

Talk about that in the morning, afternoon, night and late night.

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LeTigre
10/24/24 10:22:07 PM
#36:


Guys Harris is winning in landslide.

just look at the polls!

no, not those polls. The other polls!

actually polls are useless but shes sooooo ahead you guys.

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Charismic_Zach_Gowen
10/24/24 10:26:05 PM
#37:


LeTigre posted...
Guys Harris is winning in landslide.

just look at the polls!

no, not those polls. The other polls!

actually polls are useless but shes sooooo ahead you guys.

You'd imagine after 20+ years you would mature and become less insufferable but yet here we are.

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#38
Post #38 was unavailable or deleted.
PballDepot
10/24/24 10:30:59 PM
#39:


TheSuperSilver posted...
I kind of feel Kamala should've kept her "joyful warriors" vibe and built her nest around abortion rights.

Yup. It's not like there's a precedence of Dems doing well when they use right wing rhetoric so it's quite puzzling why she changed her messaging so radically.

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luigi33
10/24/24 10:34:22 PM
#40:


Lmao, these fake ass right-wing polls are literally right wing copium.

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voldothegr8
10/24/24 10:50:13 PM
#41:


Vyrulisse posted...
We need to face the reality that this could go either way.
Basically ignore polls and do your part in voting, that's all you can really do and control.


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projectpat72988
10/24/24 10:56:20 PM
#42:


Anyone know if Real Clear Politics site has any bias or is legit? They compile polls. After such heavy Harris momentum it now seems to have shifted in the opposite direction. Not sure what to make of this stuff. Weren't the polls pretty accurate last time? Biden had a decent lead and won the election.

I recall in 2016 Bing and Google had great little poll and prediction sections. Considering they both had Clinton at like 95% chance of winning I guess they scrapped them for the future? I can't find them.

Looking at real clear polls shows Trump ahead in every single BG state? Some are incredibly small leads though. Not sure why they consider some of those stats BG states though. I mean. Harris is shown to be ahead in 3 of them but they're states she is going to win regardless. Trump surely isn't winning Minnesota and Harris isn't winning Ohio....
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LightSnake
10/24/24 11:00:17 PM
#43:


projectpat72988 posted...
Anyone know if Real Clear Politics site has any bias or is legit? They compile polls. After such heavy Harris momentum it now seems to have shifted in the opposite direction. Not sure what to make of this stuff. Weren't the polls pretty accurate last time? Biden had a decent lead and won the election.

I recall in 2016 Bing and Google had great little poll and prediction sections. Considering they both had Clinton at like 95% chance of winning I guess they scrapped them for the future? I can't find them.

Looking at real clear polls shows Trump ahead in every single BG state? Some are incredibly small leads though. Not sure why they consider some of those stats BG states though. I mean. Harris is shown to be ahead in 3 of them but they're states she is going to win regardless. Trump surely isn't winning Minnesota and Harris isn't winning Ohio....

RCP is pretty bad. They factor in a number of right wing garbage polls

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CRON
10/24/24 11:00:25 PM
#44:


projectpat72988 posted...
Anyone know if Real Clear Politics site has any bias or is legit?
They have a center-right bias.


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BunkerBoy
10/24/24 11:00:59 PM
#45:


projectpat72988 posted...
Real Clear Politics site has any bias or is legit?
They're biased as hell, just look at their articles
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projectpat72988
10/24/24 11:04:30 PM
#46:


BunkerBoy posted...
They're biased as hell, just look at their articles

They have some weirdly titled articles but it looked like it went both ways. lmao today's are for sure right leaning....if you could say leaning...

Is there a better place that compiles polls with graphs like they do?
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ssjevot
10/24/24 11:05:48 PM
#47:


I wouldn't use a site like RCP because polls can't really be used well outside of a model (models adjust for bias and a number of other factors). Just use a model like 538, Economist, Silver Bullet, etc. They all pretty much agree it's 50/50.

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LonelyStoner
10/24/24 11:09:41 PM
#48:


No he isnt lmao

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GrandConjuraton
10/24/24 11:13:14 PM
#49:


Why is this country so full of stupid people? It's incredibly depressing, ._.

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luigi33
10/24/24 11:15:05 PM
#50:


Here comes the doomers again lmao.

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