Current Events > Suddenly Trump leads PA Polling

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UnholyMudcrab
10/24/24 11:15:58 PM
#51:


RCP uses some kind of arbitrary selection process for what goes into their aggregate, and wouldn't you know, it tends to exclude polls that are favorable to Harris.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/cde26920.png

But watch them include this one, which was sponsored by a right-wing hack and claims to have polled nearly 2,500 likely voters in Pennsylvania today. For those unfamiliar with how polling works, it doesn't fucking work that way.

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voldothegr8
10/24/24 11:21:44 PM
#52:


GrandConjuraton posted...
Why is this country so full of stupid people? It's incredibly depressing, ._.
It's not just this country. There are 8 billion humans in this world and with that comes an intelligence curve, meaning some are below average, most average, and some above average. A good 1-2 billion of them fall way on the below average end of the curve.

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gu-gohan
10/24/24 11:31:33 PM
#53:


SauI_Goodman posted...
If it'll make you feel better stay off the internet and turn off the TV for 2 weeks. Complaining isn't going to do anything. Wait it out like the rest of us.
I guess so, yeah.

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ReiRei89
10/24/24 11:51:06 PM
#54:


UnholyMudcrab posted...
RCP uses some kind of arbitrary selection process for what goes into their aggregate, and wouldn't you know, it tends to exclude polls that are favorable to Harris.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/c/cde26920.png

But watch them include this one, which was sponsored by a right-wing hack and claims to have polled nearly 2,500 likely voters in Pennsylvania today. For those unfamiliar with how polling works, it doesn't fucking work that way.
Yeah, it's legit impossible to contact 2.5k people in a single day for a poll considering the abysmal response times. Legitimate pollsters have said something like they get a single response out of every 20,000 calls they make. Hence legitimate polls don't release as often.

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ellis123
10/25/24 12:07:02 AM
#55:


luigi33 posted...
Here comes the doomers again lmao.
Nah, not even they bother with the polls anymore. It's just so obviously bull that not even Dice can bleat about how it's all Joever for any real length of time.

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ReiRei89
10/25/24 12:23:04 AM
#56:


ellis123 posted...
Nah, not even they bother with the polls anymore. It's just so obviously bull that not even Dice can bleat about how it's all Joever for any real length of time.
Dice still tries and stirs the pot like his latest thread where he posted an article that uses a poll done by Trump's personal pollster as an excuse to doom about Harris.

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ellis123
10/25/24 12:29:22 AM
#57:


ReiRei89 posted...
Dice still tries and stirs the pot like his latest thread where he posted an article that uses a poll done by Trump's personal pollster as an excuse to doom about Harris.
Ye, I was more referring to this particular topic. He still stomps and cries elsewhere, of course.

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Cemith
10/25/24 9:53:45 AM
#58:


ssb_yunglink2 posted...
There is just simply no way to know who is going to win this election until the votes are counted.

Looking at every single poll as they come out is a recipe for making yourself go insane
This. The dread and panic will start to ooze out of you. Just stop looking at voting results. It's going to be a close race, accept it and just go.

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LightSnake
10/25/24 12:00:58 PM
#59:


Isn't it strange how Kamala pulls ahead in PA whenever we get a poll from, like. Marist, NYT/Sienna or other accredited pollsters? And then we get a glut of shitty right wing polls that immediately push Trump ahead that they completed in like a week?

PA is gonna vote to the left of Wisconsin, mark my words.

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ReiRei89
10/25/24 12:04:32 PM
#60:


LightSnake posted...
Isn't it strange how Kamala pulls ahead in PA whenever we get a poll from, like. Marist, NYT/Sienna or other accredited pollsters? And then we get a glut of shitty right wing polls that immediately push Trump ahead that they completed in like a week?

PA is gonna vote to the left of Wisconsin, mark my words.
Today we have fools dooming over the final NYT national poll having Kamala and Trump tied. While ignoring that the poll shows a lot of undecideds and said undecideds favoring Harris over Trump.

So we're going to have more fools dooming over polls they don't bother reading into because it's easier to panic and cry than it is to spend five minutes to do the bare absolute minimum to see why a poll the way it is.

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DnDer
10/25/24 12:04:43 PM
#61:


ReiRei89 posted...
What happened is that high quality polls showing Harris up were removed from the model so the trash polls now skew the model even more.

Is that normal/good statistics and polling practice, especially when it generates results like this?

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ReiRei89
10/25/24 12:07:05 PM
#62:


DnDer posted...
Is that normal/good statistics and polling practice, especially when it generates results like this?
Before 2022 it wasn't really an issue because in theory when a high quality poll gets too old and needs to be removed from their model said pollster will have a newer poll out. Unfortunately due to low response rates and the ballooning cost of running polls high quality pollsters cannot release their polls as quickly as lower quality pollsters who crap out polls every other day.

Those high quality pollsters have their reputations and jobs on the line and thus can't release polls with crappy methodology while the lower quality pollsters are being funded by the GOP and GOP aligned groups to release said crappy polls.

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LightSnake
10/25/24 12:07:49 PM
#63:


ReiRei89 posted...
Today we have fools dooming over the final NYT national poll having Kamala and Trump tied. While ignoring that the poll shows a lot of undecideds and said undecideds favoring Harris over Trump.

So we're going to have more fools dooming over polls they don't bother reading into because it's easier to panic and cry than it is to spend five minutes to do the bare absolute minimum to see why a poll the way it is.

People believe anything Trump is a Trump + whatever advantage. Even Harris being ahead (even comfortably) would result in some close/tied/Trump ahead polls with the MoE....

But holy hell, people need to dive into crosstabs. So much of this is panicking liberals/leftists needing to have anxiety assuaged and like...I get it, I'm anxious, too! But there would need to be a catastrophic polling error for Trump to be ahead. Sure, POSSIBLE, but not likely.

My conspiracy theoy is I don't actually believe there are that many undecideds.

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CountCorvinus
10/25/24 12:22:03 PM
#64:


Or maybe she's slipping in the polls because Harris abandoning her base, and instead choosing to campaign with far right conservatives, telling trans people we should just "follow the law" when it comes to our rights, escorting people out of her rallies just for being Arab and continuing to support for genocide, while 80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo wasn't the slam dunk strategy she thought it was?

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LightSnake
10/25/24 12:23:48 PM
#65:


CountCorvinus posted...
Or maybe Harris abandoning her base, and instead choosing to campaign with far right conservatives, telling trans people we should just "follow the law" when it comes to our rights, escorting people out of her rallies just for being Arab and continuing to support for genocide, while 80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo wasn't the slam dunk strategy she thought it was?

So many mistruths in this single post is....impressive.


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CountCorvinus
10/25/24 12:25:18 PM
#66:


LightSnake posted...
So many mistruths in this single post is....impressive.

Shut the fuck up. Everything I said is accurate.

Campaigning with the far right:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/liz-cheney-kamala-harris-campaign/680367/

"Follow the law"
https://x.com/NBCPolitics/status/1848865896967901410

Kicking out Rally Goers:
https://www.metrotimes.com/news/detroit-muslim-leader-ejected-from-kamala-harris-rally-deepening-rift-between-democrats-and-arab-americans-37670193

80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo:
https://x.com/johncusack/status/1848881036048142369

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LightSnake
10/25/24 12:27:54 PM
#67:


CountCorvinus posted...
Shut the fuck up. Everything I said is accurate is.

Well, no. You're leaving out quite a bit of context. Like how "follow the law" was talking about federal law and things like gender reassignment surgery for federal inmates. She was literally making a statement in support of gender affirming care.

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Deej
10/25/24 12:29:53 PM
#68:


CountCorvinus posted...
Or maybe she's slipping in the polls because Harris abandoning her base, and instead choosing to campaign with far right conservatives, telling trans people we should just "follow the law" when it comes to our rights, escorting people out of her rallies just for being Arab and continuing to support for genocide, while 80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo wasn't the slam dunk strategy she thought it was?
Oh hey, it's the Blue MAGA person

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LeTigre
10/25/24 12:32:14 PM
#69:


Deej posted...
Oh hey, it's the Blue MAGA person

this is honestly hilariously ironic.

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Deej
10/25/24 12:36:10 PM
#70:


LeTigre posted...
this is honestly hilariously ironic.
Oh hey, it's the Harris landslide narrative person

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CountCorvinus
10/25/24 12:42:04 PM
#71:


Ooooooranges posted...
I really think this Cheney strategy has backfired really badly.

Maybe she's trying to lose? You have to seriously put in the effort to run a campaign as horrendous as this.

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ellis123
10/25/24 12:42:44 PM
#72:


Deej posted...
Oh hey, it's the Blue MAGA person
CountCovid is always good for a groan.

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argonautweakend
10/25/24 12:45:21 PM
#73:


Harris is winning PA. I live here but don't have any unique insights really.

Biden won last time by 80K a 120K vote flip from 2016. Where is this support coming from? Republicans are slowly flipping or choosing not to vote. I haven't heard of any credible reports of democrats flipping for him outside of Tulsi Gabbard and that's pretty weak.
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Antifar
10/25/24 12:48:41 PM
#74:


argonautweakend posted...
I haven't heard of any credible reports of democrats flipping for him
Well, the people in play typically aren't committed Democrats. Your average voter is not nearly as identified with a party as politicians.

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Cemith
10/25/24 12:53:49 PM
#75:


CountCorvinus posted...
Or maybe she's slipping in the polls because Harris abandoning her base, and instead choosing to campaign with far right conservatives, telling trans people we should just "follow the law" when it comes to our rights, escorting people out of her rallies just for being Arab and continuing to support for genocide, while 80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo wasn't the slam dunk strategy she thought it was?

I miss when you blocked me. Can we do that again?

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creativerealms
10/25/24 12:54:26 PM
#76:


CountCorvinus posted...
Maybe she's trying to lose? You have to seriously put in the effort to run a campaign as horrendous as this.
Harris isn't doing anything wrong with this campaign. Sorry but she would.lose more support if she turned on Israel.

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ReiRei89
10/25/24 12:59:00 PM
#77:


Oh and a Republican operative was just found to have committed major voter fraud in PA and it's looking like it's the dipshit who was working on getting the Amish to show up for Trump.

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1849848787583246748?t=gDHV8xf9nstjthuBx4pvJQ&s=19

That thread explains it a bit. 60% of the registrations were fraudulent so if that is indeed the case then Pressler is fucked and LOL at anyone thinking the Amish were going to carry Trump.

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kaiolino
10/25/24 1:02:44 PM
#78:


Why do people keep wondering where are these voters coming from? We know where theyre coming from. Theyre low information voters who bought into the meme that egg prices rose by 200% and think the economy was perfect before Biden.

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LightSnake
10/25/24 1:32:09 PM
#79:


kaiolino posted...
Why do people keep wondering where are these voters coming from? We know where theyre coming from. Theyre low information voters who bought into the meme that egg prices rose by 200% and think the economy was perfect before Biden.

The funny part is he does seem to have gains in some states.

The issue being it's just slightly more chunks of red states or safe blue states he won't win.

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BunkerBoy
10/25/24 1:34:14 PM
#80:


Scott Presler may have fucked up...

As always, it's projection from maga!

https://twitter.com/CommissionerJP/status/1849815395856749007
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LightSnake
10/25/24 1:37:10 PM
#81:


"Get the Amish!" was just

omg

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Humble_Novice
10/25/24 1:37:45 PM
#82:


https://x.com/Shawn_Foss/status/1849846324188815378
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Takuya_Lee
10/25/24 1:37:51 PM
#83:


ReiRei89 posted...
Oh and a Republican operative was just found to have committed major voter fraud in PA and it's looking like it's the dipshit who was working on getting the Amish to show up for Trump.

https://x.com/blockedfreq/status/1849848787583246748?t=gDHV8xf9nstjthuBx4pvJQ&s=19

That thread explains it a bit. 60% of the registrations were fraudulent so if that is indeed the case then Pressler is fucked and LOL at anyone thinking the Amish were going to carry Trump.

Are we sure it was the national chain's and not local knock offs? I can see this being held at a Wel Mart and Taco Ball.

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masterpug53
10/25/24 1:43:14 PM
#84:


CountCorvinus posted...
Or maybe she's slipping in the polls because Harris abandoning her base, and instead choosing to campaign with far right conservatives, telling trans people we should just "follow the law" when it comes to our rights, escorting people out of her rallies just for being Arab and continuing to support for genocide, while 80% of Dem voters want an arms embargo wasn't the slam dunk strategy she thought it was?

Stop, please, I just can't handle so much good faith in a single post!

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luigi33
10/25/24 1:44:37 PM
#85:


LightSnake posted...
Isn't it strange how Kamala pulls ahead in PA whenever we get a poll from, like. Marist, NYT/Sienna or other accredited pollsters? And then we get a glut of shitty right wing polls that immediately push Trump ahead that they completed in like a week?

PA is gonna vote to the left of Wisconsin, mark my words.
This. People who are so confident that its extremely close...what is this based on? Right wing flooded polls? Get the fuck out of here.

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LightSnake
10/25/24 1:47:06 PM
#86:


luigi33 posted...
This. People who are so confident that its extremely close...what is this based on? Right wing flooded polls? Get the fuck out of here.

The big question mark for me is Wisconsin. Harris either polls ahead or ties there, but we've gotten little good data.

It's still definitely near a coin flip, but I keep stressing I'd rather be Kamala.

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Humble_Novice
10/25/24 2:23:37 PM
#87:


https://x.com/jackisjake/status/1849843722885923318
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Sonixs
10/25/24 2:26:43 PM
#88:


Humble_Novice posted...
https://x.com/jackisjake/status/1849843722885923318

Lmao they finally busted Scott Presler for committing voter fraud.

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Doe
10/25/24 2:32:28 PM
#89:


I'm kinda confused, so they think the voter registration was filled out by someone else? How many people were registered fraudulently? Is the idea then that someone will mail in a vote for the person who themself never registered?

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Starks
10/25/24 2:33:19 PM
#90:


I don't see Democrats reaching 500k for a firewall, but I still don't see them losing the state.

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ReiRei89
10/25/24 2:33:44 PM
#91:


Doe posted...
I'm kinda confused, so they think the voter registration was filled out by someone else? How many people were registered fraudulently? Is the idea then that someone will mail in a vote for the person who themself never registered?
At least 60% of the registrations were fraudulent.

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Doe
10/25/24 2:38:57 PM
#92:


Okay but 60% of what. Surely not ALL registrations

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Diceheist
10/25/24 2:41:33 PM
#93:


creativerealms posted...
Harris isn't doing anything wrong with this campaign.

Yes she is. The problem is she struggles with nuance. You can support Israel out of obligation, but you don't have to call Oct. 7th worse than the subsequent atrocities. You can offer to work with Republicans, but you don't have to pledge to hire them. You can promote the beneficial aspects of your predecessor's unpopular presidency, but you don't have to say there was nothing you could've done better in his position.

Politics is threading a needle but Harris basically just jams the string into the pin. Also it's odd how she shifted from "we aren't going back" and "a new way forward" messaging, alongside calling Republican politicians weird, to pining for the political old days and wanting a "strong Republican party" back like a Biden or a Pelosi does, the latter type of campaigning having been exposed as significantly less popular than the former. It shows that there wasn't a primary for her to sharpen her skills in.
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Takuya_Lee
10/25/24 2:43:16 PM
#94:


Diceheist posted...
Yes she is. The problem is she struggles with nuance. You can support Israel out of obligation, but you don't have to call Oct. 7th worse than the subsequent atrocities. You can offer to work with Republicans, but you don't have to pledge to hire them. You can promote the beneficial aspects of your predecessor's unpopular presidency, but you don't have to say there was nothing you could've done better in his position.

Politics is threading a needle but Harris basically just jams the string into the pin. Also it's odd how she shifted from "we aren't going back" and "a new way forward" messaging, alongside calling Republican politicians weird, to pining for the political old days and wanting a "strong Republican party" back like a Biden or a Pelosi does, the latter type of campaigning having been exposed as significantly less popular than the former. It shows that there wasn't a primary for her to sharpen her skills in.

No she isn't. Sit down and stop embarrassing yourself.

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Humble_Novice
10/25/24 2:45:37 PM
#95:


https://x.com/writcertiorari/status/1849838150576701681
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Diceheist
10/25/24 2:50:30 PM
#96:


Takuya_Lee posted...


No she isn't. Sit down and stop embarrassing yourself.

For months she was significantly up in the polls and barely anyone but constant doomers, skeptics, and single-issue voters had any major issue with her campaign. The most criticism I could manage during that time was, "she should do more media appearances, since poll respondents claim not to know enough about her." I criticize everything but that was still all I had.

All of a sudden in the last month around the time her campaign strategy shifted she started polling significantly less ahead of Trump, her unfavorables rose to levels near our other three recent nominees, and significantly more people started complaining about her campaign (reminiscent of prior elections).

If a campaign builds a solid lead off of voter enthusiasm for something new, I do not get the need to pivot over to similar strategies to the ones that failed the guy you just replaced.
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ReiRei89
10/25/24 2:52:46 PM
#97:


Takuya_Lee posted...
No she isn't. Sit down and stop embarrassing yourself.
But you see Diceheist has that wonderful poll conducted by Trump's personal pollster as evidence that Kamala is doomed!

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Pitbuller_26
10/25/24 2:55:55 PM
#98:


Some good news to help lower the anxiety.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/0/07e680c1.jpg
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Humble_Novice
10/25/24 2:59:03 PM
#99:


https://x.com/Jtfawver/status/1849886893539832228
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Hyena_Of_Ice
10/25/24 3:08:21 PM
#100:


Humble_Novice posted...
https://x.com/Jtfawver/status/1849886893539832228

It'll be funny if it turns out to be a Russian operation for Jill Stein.
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