Current Events > Suddenly Trump leads PA Polling

(+) Yeah! (+)

ReiRei89 posted...

That thread explains it a bit. 60% of the registrations were fraudulent so if that is indeed the case then Pressler is f***ed and LOL at anyone thinking the Amish were going to carry Trump.

No account anymore. Can you unroll the thread or screenshot the explanations?

As far as I know, Kamala isn't employing paid canvassers to do her ground game. People suspect it might be Scott Pressler or Elon Musk.

Hyena_Of_Ice posted...

It'll be funny if it turns out to be a Russian operation for Jill Stein.

Nah it's most likely Scott Pressler. He was trying to get the Amish registered in PA and the timeline lines up as do the numbers. There's also the fact that Pressler is a fucking moron and the GOP loves cheating.

Diceheist posted...

For months she was significantly up in the polls and barely anyone but constant doomers, skeptics, and single-issue voters had any major issue with her campaign. The most criticism I could manage during that time was, "she should do more media appearances, since poll respondents claim not to know enough about her." I criticize everything but that was still all I had.

Are you seriously claiming you didn't see the race tightening? Do you not understand how literally anything worked?

Also you were one of t he skeptics! You were whining so much how she stood fo nothing, had no policy, etc.

All of a sudden in the last month around the time her campaign strategy shifted she started polling significantly less ahead of Trump, her unfavorables rose to levels near our other three recent nominees, and significantly more people started complaining about her campaign (reminiscent of prior elections).

Huh, you mean...
People who wanted anyone who was Not Biden were initially happy, but then as they saw more of Harris reality set in on the fantasy that she wasn't just some cipher they could project their policies onto? How, exactly, do you reconcile your view with the idea a big issue voters have with her is she's too liberal?

If a campaign builds a solid lead off of voter enthusiasm for something new, I do not get the need to pivot over to similar strategies to the ones that failed the guy you just replaced.

It's simple: Harris maxed out Democratic turnout and made plays to get the middles, along with how Biden got excoriated in polls for being seen as too left.

Do you recognize that your priors are inaccurate or ae you just a chronic liar?

DnDer posted...

No account anymore. Can you unroll the thread or screenshot the explanations?

Humble posted similar things on it. And I TLDR'd it for Hyena.

ReiRei89 posted...

Nah it's most likely Scott Pressler. He was trying to get the Amish registered in PA and the timeline lines up as do the numbers. There's also the fact that Pressler is a fucking moron and the GOP loves cheating.

He was also caught doing this: https://x.com/BlondesForBiden/status/1786203720507642367

https://x.com/Dascoochie/status/1849871277403828444

This could spell disaster for GOP plans in PA. They probably had a LOT inking on this.

How much ability do they have I wonder to comb through all these registrations now to see which might match the pattern of fraud

LightSnake posted...

Are you seriously claiming you didn't see the race tightening? Do you not understand how literally anything worked?

I watch the polls like a hawk and prior to October there was only a rare NYT or outlier poll showing Trump ahead. Yes it counts as tightening but she still had a noticeable overall lead.

LightSnake posted...

Also you were one of t he skeptics! You were whining so much how she stood fo nothing, had no policy, etc.

I said she had not elaborated on her policies. Eventually she released a platform, and it was bigger than Biden's, which resolved that issue.

LightSnake posted...

Huh, you mean...
People who wanted anyone who was Not Biden were initially happy, but then as they saw more of Harris reality set in on the fantasy that she wasn't just some cipher they could project their policies onto? How, exactly, do you reconcile your view with the idea a big issue voters have with her is she's too liberal?

NYT said 44% viewed her as too liberal... But couldn't that mostly be Republicans who were never gonna vote D to begin with?

LightSnake posted...

It's simple: Harris maxed out Democratic turnout and made plays to get the middles, along with how Biden got excoriated in polls for being seen as too left.

Even if I accept that premise as true, and also accept the notion that Harris couldn't have just won with her prior coalition anyway, the problem is that gained turnout can be lost midway.

If a candidate boosted by enthusiasm is no longer particularly enthusiasing the voters who were previously enthused might back out, or complain and discourage others from participating.

Diceheist posted...

I watch the polls like a hawk and prior to October there was only a rare NYT or outlier poll showing Trump ahead. Yes it counts as tightening but she still had a noticeable overall lead.

Ohhh, you mean after things like campaigning and the debate? When everyone was sayign the polls would expectantly tighten as the race got closer to November?

I said she had not elaborated on her policies. Eventually she released a platform, and it was bigger than Biden's, which resolved that issue.

You were straight complaining she should. You know full well what you posted

NYT said 44% viewed her as too liberal... But couldn't that mostly be Republicans who were never gonna vote D to begin with?

Are you asking or saying? If you're saying, then find some data to back it up

Even if I accept that premise as true, and also accept the notion that Harris couldn't have just won with her prior coalition anyway, the problem is that gained turnout can be lost midway.

And now she's pulling in a coalition that ranges from Liz Cheney to Insane Clown Posse while you're a dishonest whinger.

If a candidate boosted by enthusiasm is no longer particularly enthusiasing the voters who were previously enthused might back out, or complain and discourage others from participating.

And there's no evidence that happened. Sorry.

She also hasn't stepped away from "We're not going back". Literally led a chant at her last town hall.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/4/4d07484a.jpg

Late deciders are breaking for Harris by double digits.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/e/ec91dfed.png

Diceheist posted...

The most criticism I could manage during that time was, "she should do more media appearances, since poll respondents claim not to know enough about her." I criticize everything but that was still all I had.

Just because topics purge after awhile doesn't mean our memories of what you actually complaining about did.

https://x.com/JasonLeopold/status/1849962217472410017

What exactly is the point of bias or nonsense polling? That part doesn't make sense to me.

Wouldn't trying to deceive the public into thinking one party is going to win. Simply make the other parties supporters much more active?

For example Trump never shoud've won in 2016. With the way the media was portraying it as a slam dunk for Clinton was just a bad idea. The casual opposition to trump though he had not a chance in HELL of winning when it turned out he just....JUST Had enough to.

projectpat72988 posted...

What exactly is the point of bias or nonsense polling? That part doesn't make sense to me.

One reason is to help convince his supporters that the election was stolen from him if he loses

RoosterGold posted...

One reason is to help convince his supporters that the election was stolen from him if he loses

The other is to depress Democratic turnout by making them feel like it's hopeless.

Kradek posted...

The other is to depress Democratic turnout by making them feel like it's hopeless.

I'm guessing it'll have the opposite effect and I'll laugh hard when it does

Kradek posted...

One reason is to help convince his supporters that the election was stolen from him if he loses

The other is to depress Democratic turnout by making them feel like it's hopeless.
My metal band, Ivory King, has 2 songs out now - allmylinks.com/ivorykingtx (all of our link

I don't really think it's even that. There is a not-inconsiderate part of the right that REALLY THINKS they're winning and they're giving the 'real' numbers. It's just expensive cope

Takuya_Lee posted...

I'm guessing it'll have the opposite effect and I'll laugh hard when it does

It has the entire 538 poll discussion subreddit spiraling into despair and claiming it's over and there's nothing anyone can do.

ReiRei89 posted...

It has the entire 538 poll discussion subreddit spiraling into despair and claiming it's over and there's nothing anyone can do.

Reddit will just reddit sometimes.

82 Nobel Peace Prize winners just endorsed Harris.

Countless top tier environmental scientist endorsed Harris.

Economist that know Trump's tariffs will ruin the economy support Harris.

And yet Trump could win lol

Sonixs posted...

82 Nobel Peace Prize winners just endorsed Harris.

Countless top tier environmental scientist endorsed Harris.

Economist that know Trump's tariffs will ruin the economy support Harris.

And yet Trump could win lol

As one of the Brexit guys said in 2016, people are tired of listening to experts.

kaiolino posted...

As one of the Brexit guys said in 2016, people are tired of listening to experts.

I'm not too familiar with the whole Brexit saga but hasn't the decision caused unrecoverable damage to their economy?

projectpat72988 posted...

What exactly is the point of bias or nonsense polling? That part doesn't make sense to me.

Wouldn't trying to deceive the public into thinking one party is going to win. Simply make the other parties supporters much more active?

For example Trump never shoud've won in 2016. With the way the media was portraying it as a slam dunk for Clinton was just a bad idea. The casual opposition to trump though he had not a chance in HELL of winning when it turned out he just....JUST Had enough to.

It could do that, but the group its likely to motivate in this way would be mostly people who were going to vote for Kamala anyway.

As polling goes more and more in Trumps favor, people on the fence or previously on the fence are more likely to think their vote wont make a difference, so more of them will stay home or vote 3rd party. Both of these historically benefit Republicans.

LightSnake posted...

And now she's pulling in a coalition that ranges from Liz Cheney to Insane Clown Posse while you're a dishonest whinger.

You're conflating courting a demographic with actually getting it. I don't see any figures confirming this coalition is actually forming in terms of voters.

loafy013 posted...

Just because topics purge after awhile doesn't mean our memories of what you actually complaining about did.

There's a message archive off-site that anyone can check to see that the only things Harris herself did that I complained about before October was release a platform late (and I noted that it was a bigger platform than Trump and Biden's when she released it) and not do the full media rounds. I literally made a topic during that period saying I didn't see a major issue with the campaign.

So if you have another example then state it specifically. Tired of the vague attacks. Making things up is not "memory".

Diceheist posted...

If you have another example then state it. Tired of the vague attacks. Put up or shut up please.

As if anyone feels compelled to listen to you, Apocalypse Edge.

GrandConjuraton posted...

As if anyone feels compelled to listen to you, Apocalypse Edge.

rofl that's AE??? there's a name I haven't heard in years

TheHoldSteady posted...

rofl that's AE??? there's a name I haven't heard in years

Yep.

GrandConjuraton posted...

As if anyone feels compelled to listen to you, Apocalypse Edge.

As if anyone needs you derailing another topic with baseless accusations to deflect from the false claim I called out.

If you're not gonna listen then don't address me at all, instead of cluttering the topic. There is no reason for you to interject with personal attacks when I'm clearing up a misconception.

Looks like I touched a nerve.

GrandConjuraton posted...

Looks like I touched a nerve.

So then you're trolling? We're supposed to be discussing politics, not touching nerves.

Diceheist posted...

As if anyone needs you derailing another topic with baseless accusations to deflect from the false claim I called out.

If you're not gonna listen then don't address me at all, instead of cluttering the topic with crap. There is no reason you to interject when I'm clearing up a misconception.

Are you still a forever alone

TheHoldSteady posted...

Are you still a forever alone

He still makes forever alone topics on occasion, so yes, it seems to be a good assumption.

TheHoldSteady posted...

Are you still a forever alone

People will believe any rumor they hear about users they don't like but then unironically complain about political propaganda.

Who is Apocalypse Edge?

HighSeraph posted...

Who is Apocalypse Edge?

Probably the most infamous foreveralone poster in CE history. He was extremely active until around 2012 or 13, but he seemingly left... until he came back as Diceheist.

The polling is close and fake polls are an influence.

Do I sit pat and tell myself Trump is just faking the polls so that he can say the election is stolen? Or do I observe that The Trump Campaign is doing anything and everything and ask myself what more can I do?

If you want Kamala Harris to win, keep on it.

First you vote. Then you donate $ or work for a campaign. I have donated small amounts of money. My sister in law in North Carolina does office support on the weekend with a team that is knocking on doors. Trump will lose if we keep working on it.

Diceheist posted...

You're conflating courting a demographic with actually getting it. I don't see any figures confirming this coalition is actually forming in terms of voters.

There's a message archive off-site that anyone can check to see that the only things Harris herself did that I complained about before October was release a platform late (and I noted that it was a bigger platform than Trump and Biden's when she released it) and not do the full media rounds. I literally made a topic during that period saying I didn't see a major issue with the campaign.

So if you have another example then state it specifically. Tired of the vague attacks. Making things up is not "memory".

Take it to the Doomer general

Diceheist posted...

You're conflating courting a demographic with actually getting it. I don't see any figures confirming this coalition is actually forming in terms of voters.

So you're not looking at the early voting numbers? Or the polls?

LightSnake posted...

So you're not looking at the early voting numbers? Or the polls?

I don't see how the early voting can tell us anything definitive when Pew polling shows that less than half as much Republicans than Democrats support early voting at all. GOP respect for early voting is at an all-time low of 37% after all of Trump's propaganda about election fraud. It's not a stretch to consider that people who hate a particular electoral mechanic won't participate in it.

I'd probably have to delve deep into the polling cross-tabs to see if Harris is attracting more independents/swing voters now than before.

Diceheist posted...

I don't see how the early voting can tell us anything definitive when Pew polling shows that less than half as much Republicans than Democrats support early voting at all. GOP respect for early voting is at an all-time low of 37% after all of Trump's propaganda about election fraud. It's not a stretch to consider that people who hate a particular electoral mechanic won't participate in it.

I'd probably have to delve deep into the polling cross-tabs to see if Harris is attracting more independents/swing voters now than before.

So by this logic that surge in early voting by Republicans must be people who had changes of heart and are actually voting blue, right?

I can't tell if people are actually reading tea leaves or being sarcastic.

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/a/forum/b/b2cc8f75.jpg

Uh oh Trump