Current Events > Mortgage rates surge over 7% as tariffs hit bond market

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WingsOfGood
04/11/25 2:33:21 PM
#1:


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/11/mortgage-rates-surge-tariffs-bond-market.html

Points
  • The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged 13 basis points Friday to 7.1%.
  • Mortgage rates are now at the highest level since February.
  • Forget about housing in this environment, said Nancy Lazar, global chief economist at Piper Sandler.


The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged 13 basis points Friday to 7.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily. Thats the highest rate since mid-February.
Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride all week, as bond yields spiked higher mid-week when President Donald Trumps new tariffs on dozens of countries went into effect. Yields dropped when Trump lowered the tariff rate on most countries hours later. Tariffs on Chinese imports, however, currently stand at 145%.

But bonds began selling off again Friday, despite a cooler-than-expected inflation report. Mortgage rates follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury.
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone whos alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981, you just lived through the worst week youve ever seen in terms of the jump in 10-year yields, said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily.
Graham said there are two ways to look at where bonds are trading today: This is either the end of the worst week for 10-year yields since 1981 or the end of a fairly average two weeks that fit right in with the trend of the past 18 months.
On Friday, another monthly report on consumer sentiment came in substantially lower than expected. The expectation for inflation jumped from 5% in March to 6.7% in April, the highest level since 1981.
All of this comes right in the heart of the all-important spring housing market. For most consumers, a home is their single largest investment.
Forget about housing in this environment, with mortgage rates back up, consumers certainly concerned about the job market, housing will also be on the weak side, said Nancy Lazar, global chief economist at Piper Sandler, on CNBCs The Exchange.
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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 2:39:10 PM
#2:


what? The local TV news this morning said mortgage rate is down to 6.625% since October

So which is it?

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WingsOfGood
04/11/25 2:40:30 PM
#3:


NeonPhoenix posted...
what? The local TV news this morning said mortgage rate is down to 6.625% since October

So which is it?

this is breaking news
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WingsOfGood
04/11/25 2:45:32 PM
#4:


this is why neon

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/bond-market-matters-finances-economy/story?id=120635535

A bond selloff is worrying Wall Street. Here's why it matters for you and the economy.

A selloff hit U.S. Treasury bonds on Friday, sending yields above levels reached two days earlier when they helped trigger President Donald Trump's dramatic decision to pause some tariffs.
The reemergence of jitters in the bond market prompted concern on Wall Street about assets that typically serve as a safe-haven investment during moments of instability for stocks.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond has surged more than half a percentage point since Monday, recording its biggest weekly gain since 2021.
The bond selloff carries direct implications for everyday people, since rising yields drive up interest rates for mortgages, credit cards and just about any other consumer loan, experts previously told ABC News.
Even more, the experts added, a prolonged hike in bond yields could in theory threaten the financial system if costly debt strains the balance sheets of large banks and other key firms. For now, bond yields remain far from causing such damage, they said, but the uncertainty has put some investors on edge.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freak-sell-off-safe-haven-181054497.html

Freak sell-off of safe haven US bonds has Wall Street rattled


The upheaval in stocks has been grabbing all the headlines, but there is a bigger problem looming in another corner of the financial markets that rarely gets headlines: Investors are dumping U.S. government bonds.
Normally, investors rush into Treasurys at a whiff of economic chaos but now they are selling them as not even the lure of higher interest payments on the bonds is getting them to buy. The freak development has experts worried that big banks, funds and traders are losing faith in America as a good place to store their money.
The fear is the U.S. is losing its standing as the safe haven, said George Cipolloni, a fund manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. Our bond market is the biggest and most stable in the world, but when you add instability, bad things can happen.
That could be bad news for consumers in need of a loan and for President Donald Trump, who had hoped his tariff pause earlier this week would restore confidence in the markets.
What's happening?
A week ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 4.01%. On Friday, the yield shot as high as 4.58% before sliding back to around 4.50%. Thats a major swing for the bond market, which measures moves by the hundredths of a percentage point.
Among the possible knockoff effects is a big hit to ordinary Americans in the form of higher interest rates on mortgages and car financing and other loans.
As yields move higher, youll see your borrowing rates move higher, too, said Brian Rehling, head of fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "And every corporation uses these funding markets. If they get more expensive, theyre going to have to pass along those costs customers or cut costs by cutting jobs.
To be sure, no one can say exactly what mix of factors is behind the developing bond bust or how long it will last, but its rattling Wall Street nonetheless.
Bonds are supposed to move in the opposite direction as stocks, rising when stocks are falling. In this way, they act like shock absorbers to 401(k)s and other portfolios in stock market meltdowns, compensating somewhat for the losses.
This is Econ 101, said Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global, adding about the bond sell-off now, Its left people scratching their heads.
The latest trigger for bond yields to go up was Friday's worse-than-expected reading on sentiment among U.S. consumers, including expectations for much higher inflation ahead. But the unusual bond yield spike this week also reflects deeper worries as Trumps tariffs threats have made America seem hostile and unstable even to longtime allies.
The influence of the bond market
Trump acknowledged that the bond market played a role in his decision Wednesday to put a 90-day pause on many tariffs, saying investors were getting a little queasy.
If indeed it was the bond market, and not stocks, that made him change course, it wouldn't come as a surprise.
The bond market's reaction to her tax and budget policy was behind the ouster of United Kingdoms Liz Truss in 2022, whose 49 days made her Britains shortest-serving prime minister. James Carville, adviser to former U.S. President Bill Clinton, also famously said hed like to be reincarnated as the bond market because of how much power it wields.
The instinctual rush into U.S. debt is so ingrained in investors it even happens when youd least expect.
People poured money into U.S. Treasury bonds during 2009 Financial Crisis, for instance, even though U.S. was the source of the problem, specifically its housing market.
But to Wall Street pros it made sense: U.S. Treasurys are liquid, stable in price and you can buy and sell them with ease even during a panic, so of course businesses and traders would rush into them to wait out the storm.
Yields on U.S bonds quickly fell during that crisis, which had a benefit beyond cushioning personal financial portfolios. It also lowered borrowing costs, which helped businesses and consumers recover.
This time that natural corrective isnt kicking in.
What's causing the sell-off?
Aside from sudden jitters about the U.S., several other things could be triggering the bond sell-off.
Some experts speculate that China, a vast holder of U.S. government bonds, is dumping them in retaliation. But that seems unlikely since that would hurt the country, too. Selling Treasurys, or essentially exchanging U.S. dollars for Chinese yuan, would make China's currency strengthen and its exports more expensive.
Another explanation is that a favored strategy of some hedge funds involving U.S. debt and lots of borrowing called the basis trade is going against them. That means their lenders are asking to get repaid and they need to raise cash.
They are selling Treasurys and that is pushing up yields thats part of it, said Mike Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. But the other part is that U.S. has become a less reliable global partner.
Wells Fargo's Rehling said hes worried about a hit to confidence in the U.S., too, but that it's way too early to be sure and that the sell-off may stop soon, anyway.
If Treasurys are no longer the place to park your cash, where do you go?, he said. Is there another bond out there that is more liquid? I dont think so.
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jefffan
04/11/25 3:02:37 PM
#5:


Home sales about to go sleep in the #1 time period houses are bought.

More winning

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Bass
04/11/25 3:04:00 PM
#6:


I really hate this timeline.

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xTreefiddy350x
04/11/25 3:11:15 PM
#7:


I'm a loan officer. I'm really starting to get worried for my job. Looking into other options.
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Trumpo
04/11/25 3:17:40 PM
#8:


Rates will reach the 80's highs at this rate

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SaikyoStyle
04/11/25 3:23:25 PM
#9:


republicans are so good for the economy. Especially where the working class is concerned.

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jefffan
04/11/25 3:23:31 PM
#10:


Trumpo posted...
Rates will reach the 80's highs at this rate
Boomers will be so happy.

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CE_gonna_CE
04/11/25 3:37:56 PM
#11:


Trumpo posted...
Rates will reach the 80's highs at this rate
This is what they wanted right?

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Tyranthraxus
04/11/25 3:49:31 PM
#12:


I think I might sign up for one of those payment protection plans, just in case.

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Dakimakura
04/11/25 3:50:11 PM
#13:


Don't worry, Trump is going to lock Biden up so he can stop increasing it.

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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 3:50:16 PM
#14:


Man, I'm glad I got my house last year. Wish it was before covid tho >_>

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Tyranthraxus
04/11/25 3:51:56 PM
#15:


NeonPhoenix posted...
Man, I'm glad I got my house last year. Wish it was before covid tho >_>

*Flexes with 3% fixed*

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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 3:52:26 PM
#16:


Tyranthraxus posted...
*Flexes with 3% fixed*
That's the pre-covid dream. I got 6-something% lol

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Tyranthraxus
04/11/25 3:53:31 PM
#17:


NeonPhoenix posted...
That's the pre-covid dream. I got 6-something% lol

There's someone here with 2.5 can't remember who though

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HeroFlyChao
04/11/25 3:53:49 PM
#18:


As someone house hunting right now that aint good.

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Kaldrenthebold
04/11/25 3:58:30 PM
#19:


I really fucked up not getting a house in 2019. Really really fucked up. But my wife and I were planning our wedding for 2020 and wanted to get married first.

This stupid timeline is horrible. I want a house but live in Jersey where it's a shit show of expensive costs.

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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 3:59:33 PM
#20:


Tyranthraxus posted...
There's someone here with 2.5 can't remember who though
Dude, that's amazing

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Kaldrenthebold
04/11/25 4:01:32 PM
#21:


My friend has a 2.9% mortgage. I'm mad jealous.

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jefffan
04/11/25 4:55:58 PM
#22:


Kaldrenthebold posted...
My friend has a 2.9% mortgage. I'm mad jealous.
Anyone who bought a house before COVID basically has their forever house lol.

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SaikyoStyle
04/11/25 5:02:49 PM
#23:


jefffan posted...
Anyone who bought a house before COVID basically has their forever house lol.
Hope they like it because theyre never leaving.

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Scardude
04/11/25 5:17:49 PM
#24:


People will stick to variable in hopes it goes down in their lifetime. Nothing can go wrong. /s

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Tyranthraxus
04/11/25 5:18:59 PM
#25:


Scardude posted...
People will stick to variable in hopes it goes down in their lifetime. Nothing can go wrong. /s
I thought variable basically means it only goes up and it's only worth it for people who plan to pay off the whole balance in like 3 years

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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 5:19:14 PM
#26:


Scardude posted...
People will stick to variable in hopes it goes down in their lifetime. Nothing can go wrong. /s
The bank tried to hawk variable to me and I was like FUCK no! Thank goodness I got fixed. I can always refinance whenever this madness ends

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Jiek_Fafn
04/11/25 6:02:46 PM
#27:


My brother currently has a house at 2%. He hasn't signed the paperwork yet on a new home that the bid was accepted on and just put the current house on the market. Bro threw his money into the sewer

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Tyranthraxus
04/11/25 6:04:03 PM
#28:


Jiek_Fafn posted...
My brother currently has a house at 2%. He hasn't signed the paperwork yet on a new home that the bid was accepted on and just put the current house on the market. Bro threw his money into the sewer
If I was gonna buy a house now I'd only do it with cash.

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NeonPhoenix
04/11/25 6:04:14 PM
#29:


Jiek_Fafn posted...
My brother currently has a house at 2%. He hasn't signed the paperwork yet on a new home that the bid was accepted on and just put the current house on the market. Bro threw his money into the sewer
That's why the housing market is fucked right now. No one wants to give up their low ass interest rates for the new higher rates right now and are retaining their homes. It's a complete seller's market right now

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tankboy
04/11/25 6:04:48 PM
#30:


I have a fixed 2.25% (refi'd during COVID) that will end just in time to start paying for my kid's college.
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argonautweakend
04/11/25 6:15:30 PM
#31:


Bonds are down because the Broccoli's sold, eh?

Couldn't be Trump.
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TheSuperSilver
04/11/25 6:31:24 PM
#32:


I'm at 3.875% and my brother's rate is 2.75%. We bought in the same state at almost the same time - he bought his new construction townhouse in December 2021 and I bought my single family home in March 2022.

With rates like that refinancing is out of the question.

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#33
Post #33 was unavailable or deleted.
Citrik
04/11/25 6:55:54 PM
#34:


Ours is 3.25% fixed I believe. We aren't going anywhere anytime soon. We like it, it's just too big for just the two of us. The market was crazy when we bought, so this was the closest we got to what we were looking for. A good problem to have, but I hate that we're essentially stuck here until this shit calms down.

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UnsteadyOwl
04/11/25 7:10:08 PM
#35:


But she has a weird laugh, you see.

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Storm_Shadow
04/11/25 7:12:54 PM
#36:


Maybe I should look at just ponying up and buying an acre or two out in the wilderness. I've had to build (and live in) lean-tos and sheds before, so maybe I could throw something together and have a small patch of something to hunker down in when the tanks are rolling down city streets.

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sfcalimari
04/11/25 11:49:15 PM
#37:


Tyranthraxus posted...
There's someone here with 2.5 can't remember who though

I had 1.45% when I bought my house but it's in New Zealand where you can only fix for a few years. Now it's like almost 6% which has nearly doubled our payments. Makes no sense to me that thousands of billionaires can hoard massive amounts of wealth and nobody cares, but when the working/middle class has more money they force you to pay money to the banks to keep inflation down. Surely there's a better way to fight inflation than making everyone poorer. Couldn't possibly tax upper middle class people more.

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Sansoldier
04/12/25 12:03:26 AM
#38:


I'm paying 6.62% after closing on a house recently. I'm not sure how GenX and Boomers thought things were expensive when they were paying like 1/3rd of the price for their home, maybe even 1/4th if you factor in house prices doubling in the last 10 years.

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WingsOfGood
04/12/25 12:47:05 AM
#39:


Sansoldier posted...
I'm paying 6.62% after closing on a house recently. I'm not sure how GenX and Boomers thought things were expensive when they were paying like 1/3rd of the price for their home, maybe even 1/4th if you factor in house prices doubling in the last 10 years.

they had interest rates like %15

however the home costed only 10% of what it does today on average

yes literally only 10%

and they are bad at math so they can't figure out the equations
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Tom_Joad
04/12/25 5:43:17 AM
#40:


Trumpo posted...
Rates will reach the 80's highs at this rate

Late 70s rates are more likely. Along with 70s-era stagflation.

16% interests rates, for example.

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Charismic_Zach_Gowen
04/12/25 7:17:43 AM
#41:


We bought our house in August 2019 and refinanced February 2021 at like a 2.4%. I'm never leaving.

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