Current Events > The shipping interruptions caused by the tariffs are delayed 30-60 days.

(+) Yeah! (+)

There is a video about it from the shipping perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33kfpNiiAmo

However, here are some key points.
-First, the shipping basically stops when the stateside stop orders because of the tariffs. HOWEVER, the ships that have already left Chinese ports will however continue to their destinations. They don't just turn around because the contracts that involve them were already signed.
-It takes about 30 days for the ships to reach the western coast. It takes about 15 days for trucking from the west coast to then reach across the country.
-It takes about 45-60 days for ships to reach ports of the eastern coast, i.e. through the canal.

In other words, we are currently still receiving the shipments that started across the sea before the tariff wars began and orders took a downturn. The last of the normal numbers of ships will be arriving in the USA early-mid may.

Additionally, if the leadership of both countries see the impacts/shortages in May-June and even assuming that everyone just immediately is like "okay, lets be friends and not tariff each other and start shipments again immediately" (unlikely), then it will still be 1-2 months of lag time before the effects of resuming normal trade actually reach shelves, during which there is just a big gap of ships just not arriving because cargo ships are slow and can't just be replaced by spamming cargo planes as an emergency measure or something (to begin, doing this would probably require military transport aircraft to be levied to do this, and China is unlikely to be happy with technically US military aircraft flying in and out of their nation en masse).

In short, we are not seeing the effects yet, and when we do see the effects, any efforts to fix it will have a lag time of a month or more before said fixes either work or fail to.

So you're saying I should buy June SPY puts?

Didn't the dockworkers union head come out in support of Trump... Well, Wonder how all the soon to be potentially laid off dock workers think of that looking back

I got something that shipped last night. The Super Mario RPG soundtrack I ordered from Square Enix website. But idk if that's affected, if it's a CD it might be made in Japan? Idk

Why would Biden do this?

Seattle's already dried up:
https://bsky.app/profile/lizzy-tish.bsky.social/post/3lnrd4ub3fk2x
40% drop in incoming traffic at the port of LA
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/la-county-ports-expect-roughly-40-drop-in-traffic-as-trumps-tariffs-continue/

If its a CD, the size of the shipments is physically small enough that, even if they didn't have some in a stateside warehouse, could be shipped via air (and as you noted they may be made or at least "printed/pressed" in Japan instead of China). Personal orders by individuals for many goods will frequently make use of aircraft rather than sea shipping unless you are getting something really big.

This will be affecting the sorts of things that they primarily/entirely use ships to move around, such as items too large is size, weight, and amount to be reasonable to use aircraft for from a financial perspective, and which have a relatively predictable rate of demand such that they (normally) can just order a month or two in advance because the stuff they need immediately already left port a month or two ago, and they are just ordering NOW what they will need in a month or two (Edit: under normal circumstances).

I know you said it's mainly affecting bigger items, but he removed the $800 de minimis for China (or rather, it's going to be removed May 2). Wouldn't that mean everything (from there) is affected?

Letsago posted...

I know you said it's mainly affecting bigger items, but he removed the $800 de minimis for China (or rather, it's going to be removed May 2). Wouldn't that mean everything (from there) is affected?

Refreshing myself on the term, it means that small enough individual items will be exempt. Which means that, if a video game were indeed manufactured in China, then as long as a single unit for sale is under 800, it is exempt? I am not sure on the details.

I do not know how this applies to any kind of bulk sale. A basic search indicates this particular one is on individual packages. So people who order single games from overseas, or even a single console from overseas, will not be impacted, I think?

One does not sell ore by the rock though, nor do they sell appliances overseas to a Best Buy or Target or something by the single appliance. So from what I understand, it really only applies to orders from individuals, not companies that sell stuff or farms or anything else since their packages are in bulk.

Surely this will bring down prices!

Raiden2909 posted...

Didn't the dockworkers union head come out in support of Trump... Well, Wonder how all the soon to be potentially laid off dock workers think of that looking back

I expect they are sleeping well on their giant pile of cash.

Can you imagine if this shit happened under the Biden Administration? The media would be calling for his impeachment! The democrats would be calling for the 25th amendment he would be thrown out of office so fucking fast for something like this, yet Republicans do it and nobody cares, the double standard working in Republican favor has killed this country they can get away with murder quiet literally that first signal leak had Trump's guys laughing and cheering killing a shitload of innocent people in another country to kill one guy, destroy the economy and cause a constitutional crisis and hardly any of that gets covered in the news.

tremain07 posted...

Can you imagine if this shit happened under the Biden Administration? The media would be calling for his impeachment! The democrats would be calling for the 25th amendment he would be thrown out of office so fucking fast for something like this, yet Republicans do it and nobody cares, the double standard working in Republican favor has killed this country they can get away with murder quiet literally that first signal leak had Trump's guys laughing and cheering killing a shitload of innocent people in another country to kill one guy, destroy the economy and cause a constitutional crisis and hardly any of that gets covered in the news.

Maybe also because Trump has been impeached before... But the think he is invincible with Republican majority in each branch.

Yeah, Republicans are cowardly as fuck even before Trump claimed the almighty they refused to hold him accountable for his first and second actions he got impeached twice and both times Republicans refused to remove and immediately ran down to his club house to swear loyalty, now he's back, pissing all over their power and daring them to do anything about it least they be subjected to his vicious cult who the FBI flat out tells the would be victims the threats are credible, especially an FBI led by Trump cultists, now even the supreme court is too scared of him.

My CD just arrived, so even if was made in China, I lucked out (de minimis ends May 2 for China)

All so Donald could scam a bit of kick back money. That's the actual only goal.

Spot shortages seem to be upcoming soon.

Three and a half minute video that intelligently explains this.

https://twitter.com/TheMaineWonk/status/1918669016521937222