Lurker > Wanglicious

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Isn't the fun one Omar?

how did they perform compared to polls though?
is the massive miscalculation all in one direction or does it underrepresent their victories as well?

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

then there's a lot of democrats who don't have functional brains considering harrison raised $107 million to beat him.
and even from the position that you don't expect him to lose, the last poll was something like 2% in graham's favor. not 12%.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

on polling:

while everyone focuses on trump, down ballot matters too.
like Graham vs. Harrison. lindsey was expected to lose that or slightly win, did not poll >50% for a long while. instead he majorly overperformed with 55%, Harrison underperformed with 43%. pretty significant for a dead even poll to have a 12% difference.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

oh yeah. almost forgot.
arizona will continue being in the news because supposedly sharpies were given out in certain polling places.

if true and if it matters, they may be this year's hanging chad.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

with the hunter biden story and the way twitter reacted in particular the right's pretty sensitive to anything twitter does that targets non-dems specifically. it's a light form of censorship here, not an outright removal like it was there, but it riles them up nevertheless as it's viewed as twitter directly overlaying the person's tweet with additional content, which definitely can be a form of censorship. but the data is still presented, so you can see it, which is an argument to say it's not. would say this is basically where the line is. but none of us here are the group that matters for that.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

that sounds like a fair way that it happened.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

tennisboy213 posted...

as someone who just woke up, when and where was this

Michigan.
like 3AM.

a vote dump happened, it was some 138k for biden, 0 for trump, and people noticed that. i think Wisconsin has something similar, you'll see a chart floating around that's a straight line up for Biden.

speaking of which, looks like trump's gonna some more in Michigan, specifically Antrim County. place is heavy GOP and somehow said Biden won significantly, clerks already confirmed the numbers are wrong. expectation is 6k votes. errors are expected and that's gonna make this headache of an election even worse as we're definitely gonna hit a point where both sides will say they're fixing it by "finding errors."

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

yeah, twitter's fueling their argument there. it's really not hard to say yeah it looks weird but explain why or how it could be legit. all this does is strengthen the argument that it's fixed.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

...update from the NYT.

Arizona isn't 98% counted.
it's 86% due to an error.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

that trump tweet fuels the SMT lover in me.
though i guess Devil May Cry might fit better with its camp.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

...oh.
predicting the next step this mail in argument is gonna go in: dems voted twice. once by mail, then once again in person, and both are in the count. so a recount and a recheck to prevent double voting results will be needed.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

Hmmm, seems sketchy

i mean, to a fair point it does.
you could genuinely say that a lot of people from that counted mailed in the vote, so the result shown isn't what the result SHOULD be.

i get you're being pretty cheeky with it but you're right, it does look that way. republicans will tout it as a major hispanic swing, democrats will say the map is wrong everywhere because mail in ballots skewed the results. note, i don't know what the Texas rules were for mail-ins. so i don't know how much is reflected on the map. but that's 100% the argument to be made by pundits and there's some validity in there.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

and if you're wondering what area i mean:
Zapata County 2016 - 65/32, Hillary/Trump
Zapata County 2020 - 52/47, Trump/Biden

that is one massive swing of a Texas border.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

and you can't say it was just cubans either, a significant chunk of the texas border went red for the first time ever.
hispanics voted for trump, mexicans included.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

people are saying it's over because it's believed that mail in ballots that remain exist in a couple battlegrounds and they've largely trended as overwhelming for biden.

it's not over, no. that's a few weeks out. counting ain't done and won't be until thursday or friday in some states, writing on the wall is just that biden is favored with what remains. it's what's expected but, well, still looks funny so there's gonna be a lot of fighting over it.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Metal_DK posted...

The late at night Biden votes dont seem shady at all when you understand its 99% people who were taking precautions due to covid, something the Republican party had no plan and for large chunks of time claimed was a hoax

it looks shady when a dump goes 140,000 vs. 0. this could well be a case where that's just how it was reported as a direct result of multiple counts combined into one update but it looks funny and that's the argument. you can understand where it's coming from while also understanding that yeah, that does look sketchy.

Jakyl25 posted...

So you really think Trumps new voters are not enthusiastic for him so much as more dissatisfied with Democrats than they were in 2016?

i think people greatly underestimate the "fuck you" vote that Trump is and it's part of why the secret trump voter phenomenon exists. he had a LOT of that in 2016 as well but i'd sooner say that's the main thing he represents and is the main thing he had this race. would also explain his massive crossover appeal with Tulsi or Yang, as well as his overlap with Bernie.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

fair, though i don't think it'll change my position much as it's basically saying trump should've been steamrolled and the fact that he wasn't is a notable and massive point of failure.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

DoomTheGyarados posted...

Okay this is true, as China's numbers are bogus.

China's are bogus because China, same with Iran and (more importantly) Brazil really.
India's are bogus because caste system still fucks with their numbers. they don't record pandemics well.

China, India, US, are top 3 in global population, with the former two each being 3x larger.

Jakyl25 posted...

I just dont see how a party that got more votes is out of step, at least relative to the other party

If you want to say both parties are out of step then sure, Ill entertain that argument

yeah i'm not doing this as a relative to the other party.
if you're running 50/50 on a guy with as shit a year that trump's had, you should totally be viewed as out of step because you're really, really bad and turned a significant number of people to him instead.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Maniac64 posted...

You mean the party which will have won the popular vote in 7 or the last 8 elections? The party whose policies poll favorably nationally?

That's the party you believe is not in step with the populace?

it depends on the policy. and the poll, apparently.
on some things what they want works. on some things what they want doesn't. culturally right, economically left is where it seems the vast majority of the nation lies, so policies that keep those axis in mind would be where i'd say the populace lies. both parties keep fucking it up there.

LordoftheMorons posted...

Nothing is sketchy. We knew that mail in votes were being counted later. We knew they were going to be super Dem leaning because Trump politicized VBM. They're now counting the mail-in votes, and the completely expected shifts are occurring.

Corrik7 posted...

Nothing looks sketchy. It was closer than anticipated but still a clear result.

a sharp rise of 100k+ votes that are 95% or straight up 100% biden in the dead of night looks sketchy. multiple days later with bursts for biden looks sketchy. doesn't mean it's wrong or inproper, but it's a funny look, they're ballots that show up "out of nowhere" after the fact that just so happen to go hard in one direction. of course that's gonna turn heads, that's a critical point of the red mirage. even if yes, that's what's supposed to happen, it doesn't change that appearance.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

That is an odd thing to say about a party that just got more votes for President than anyone ever has

Both parties are very much in step with their populace

didn't say their populace, both are trying to squeeze everything out of their parties, that's for sure. but that's also not what i said.

and considering we've had more people than ever i'm not sure what that claim is supposed to really mean? like yes, if your country has 300 mil you should have more people voting than when it had 200 mil. it's no 49 state pickup or something like that.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Jakyl25 posted...

How is the fraud claim valid

valid in the sense that some things do look sketchy.
whether it's true or not, not relevant, it's enough to make the claim and there's a sound basis for it.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

i mean we've already had California, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have their lockdowns rightfully declared unconstitutional and overreaches by the executive.

there's a sizable number of people on that side of things. and a lot of this still shouldn't be viewed as an affirmation of trump as much as a rejection of establishment and biden/harris. you can probably throw in some culture war stuff in there too, there's definite rejections of the dems on that one too. party is just that out of step with the populace.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

i mean i'm sure recounts and all will be had but what everything really matters here is that both sides are going to have valid claims in calling the election illegitimate and as a result dig their heels into the ground more. nothing here is going to end well. dems win, republicans say fraud. republicans win, dems say suppression. shit's beyond broken.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

IS she the one donors love? Im pretty sure thats Mayor Pete to be honest

pete's quite favorable with them too.
but she's the one who was getting like 70% of them favored and was considered one of the frontrunners because of that at the start, before tulsi killed her on stage.

pete fairs better than her with regular voters for sure. could totally see a Kamala/Pete ticket.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

ChaosTonyV4 posted...

(Assuming Biden wins)

Do we think Kamala is gonna be the automatic candidate, or will Dems run a primary?

She uh, isnt exactly the most charismatic, and she didnt do great in this last primary at all.

she's the one donors love.
pretty much all of biden's names floated are people the DNC and donors love. so yes, she'd be the presumptive frontrunner, with the pitch being 'well i've really been doing this for 4 years already...'


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

MZero posted...

Won't he be the same age Biden is now?

biden also isn't going for a 2nd term. hell he may not make it through his first. but he made it clear during the race that he's likely a one term president should he win.

you'd have Don Jr. vs Kamala.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

little because he's too old already.
now a john adams, that's different.

no idea if it was posted earlier or not but still an amazing chart of early exit polling data.

https://twitter.com/MattBruenig/status/1323825846365396992


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

does appear the republicans are keeping the senate too.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

arizona looking like it may end like Ohio soon.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

it's still a 50/50 race, yeah.
people are assuming trends on the east coast will resemble the midwest or areas near the west coast. that remains to be seen. and there's still mail in votes on top of that, which is its own clusterfuck.

at the very least, it doesn't look like there's any landslide victories.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

KamikazePotato posted...

What's up with MI and WI? Weren't those supposed to be safe for Biden?

literally nothing was safe for biden.
hell, the past 2 weeks have been constantly showing the race tighten drastically depending on region and the secret trump vote is a real thing.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Ashethan posted...

Trump sucks more. Literally got 200k+ americans killed. That's more than 50 9/11's. That's more than 3 Vietnams!

not what i mean. you can totally hate trump for many a good reason and he has had a god awful year with multiple critical failures. failures that are individually big enough to sink any candidate, including him.

but biden is just that shit of a candidate. this is a struggle for him when it shouldn't be, he sucks. Bloomberg put tons of money in Florida, Wall Street pumped the living hell out of Biden's campaign, Trump's was broke since September, Lincoln Project (former Republicans who hate Trump) ran multiple attack ads on Trump... and this is where we are, in a 50/50 race that looks like he'll be losing after election night and ??? once mail in get counted. he is that bad of a candidate.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Pittsburgh is like 90% Trump is how.

and Dems didn't need to go nice - Lincoln Project was basically their "go low" division. they had both. Biden just sucks.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

lindsey graham kept his seat.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

UltimaterializerX posted...

.....they might have to uncall Virginia.

CNN did just 2 minutes after you said that.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

yeah, it's matching early exit poll data. and that matches months of trends - biden basically aimed for white suburban vote over blacks and hispanics. and is still in good shape for that when it comes to Ohio at least.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323798088868388864

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

also it's more than just cubans.
remember that the telemundo poll for the first debate had trump declared the winner with 66%. hispanics have been trending much more towards trump for months now, he's notably ahead in that demo compared to 4 years ago.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

INCEPTlON posted...

Who is winning?

ask again in 3 hours for a better idea.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

thing is extha is in a swing state. in the swing state, PA.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

he was just that inspired by kanye on rogan.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Mac Arrowny posted...

Oh? 538 seems to have better odds for Biden now than they did recently. What came out today that says a win for Trump will happen? The only major thing I know about is the Texas drive through ruling, which I would think helps Biden.

trend-wise trump's had some polls where he gained a lot of strength fast over the past couple days (Iowa, Florida) but for today it's mostly been about him having multiple PA polls show that he's with a slight lead. basically things have inched closer over the past week but was this afternoon/evening when PA stuff favoring trump became more notable.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

for the hardcore believers who said mostly? Republicans are about 25%, Dems 31%, Independents 40%. so 33% of 25% and 5% of 31% would be that. roughly 10% total there. pretty plausible number.

edit:
dunno what independents would be. but if it's in the middle of that then you're looking at 15 which still ain't unreasonable.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

man, did it really take almost two decades to get this at a decent level?
that's kind of amazing, though depressing. N-Gage ultimately was just way too ahead of its time, Nokia was right on the trend but were way too early.


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

well yeah because crazy stuff is great to read about. i mean by the split posted, 33% that mostly believe it probably do in pretty deep, the 23% that say partial is the group i mean.

if you're believing JFK shit, you sure as fuck ain't voting on partial truth.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

KamikazePotato posted...

Maybe I should remake this poll without flat earth. I also included JFK simply because it was popular but the unanimous sentiment is that it shouldn't be here, so that should be replaced to. Not sure with what.

chemtrails is the classic one missing.
bigfoot is another notable one missing.

xp1337 posted...

JFK? I thought the QAnon flavor of the JFK conspiracy was less about JFK and more that JFK Jr. is still alive and secretly helping Trump to bring Hillary Clinton to justice. Also he was supposed to replace Pence as Trump's VP like a week ago but obviously that didn't happen.

Jakyl25 posted...

Did you know he was SIGHTED on top of Mount Rushmore watching Trumps speech there a couple months ago from afar, according to Q people?

#WWG1WGA

boomer larpers are by far the craziest part of it.
for what it's worth, pretty sure most people who say there's some truth tend to go towards the Epstein stuff or the distrust of government, not this part which evolved from one government insider to... well, basically a counter-illuminati.

though for that we can point to South Korea, where that actually had to happen as the country had their prime minister outed as being the puppet of a cult leader in 2016. still the best drama.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

Nanis23 posted...

Just how common are QAnon?
Are people IRL really believe that or it's just 4chan bullshit?
Do you know anyone like that in person?

it's a bunch of boomer larpers.
i think the epstein situation is what really set the thing off to a much greater audience because it ended up changing the idea of who Q is and what he's doing. ultimately you can boil a lot of the Q stuff down to "distrust of government/those with power" with "belief that there's a notable subsection of people with dangerous, degenerate, evil hobbies." has gone from "an insider trying to dismantle the big state" to "satanic pedos." for that, Epstein definitely is the trigger because... well, he was pretty damn close to it. statue of pan, had a gene lab on a private island so he could spread his seed, giant sex trafficking ring with people high up all over the world and hollywood - you can pretty much zero in on him as the model. and there is some degree of truth to that, he's clearly not the only one.

reason it's pretty popular ends up being because the core two things are pretty obviously true: you shouldn't trust government/those with power and there are people in those positions who do have those hobbies. there's plenty of stuff that's proven those positions as real already and it's true that they do get together secretly - the entire bit of Bohemian Grove revolves around that, for an older conspiracy you've got the Illuminati, etc. similarly, insiders revealing major things about government/those with money and power have also happened, it's the basis of Wikileaks and Snowden is still in exile as a result.

but that's the part that got tweaked for conspiracy larping zone: at this point it means that anytime anything is revealed involving any person in these positions, Q did it. as a result, we've now got a clear loop.

"Q" makes vague statement -> somebody in government or with money/power (US, UK, Israel, Canada, any country is fine) is caught in a scandal involving children or weird cult shit -> "Q" outed them -> belief in Q grows -> look into other vague statements, repeat.

like you don't need a deeply ingrained government insider for the vast majority of scandals that occur, a couple whistleblowers can do the job just fine usually today. but the second it's all centered on one person, you get Q and it starts resembling a weird cult/larp. as the old phrase goes, any conspiracy worth its salt has a grain of truth to it and the grains in Q's are pretty big ones.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

for people with jean:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU9LhvlFzkM&ab_channel=KyoStinV


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

9/11 was an inside job - not the dumbest take because we have had the CIA say that events like 9/11 are a good way to establish government control and we've tried things like this. so this isn't out there, governments have done this, there was a gross level of incompetence, there was a crackdown on data, and thein-fighting that makes this, at surface and a few layers in, seem very plausible. so not that dumb.

Moon landing was faked - this one i think is made a bit unfair because at the time it was much more reasonable, basically everything para said earlier. nowadays, not so much. not that dumb. however it's often tied to...

Earth is flat - ...which is significantly dumber. i don't have much defense here, this one is by far the most confusing one to have lasted as long as it has.

Aliens are in Area 51 - so the main thing here is that there's two modifiers to make this specific claim unreasonable but they aren't the ones that really matter at the core. "Government has aliens in a military base" is what's really being said here in the end, whether it's Area 51 or that they used to be there but aren't anymore aren't pertinent to anyone believing this. and at that point it's basically "are aliens real and have we captured them/their materials," of which there's definitely been a lot of government work in searching for and hiding evidence of this, including that recent Pentagon report saying we've got access to material that is not of this planet. so surface level, kinda dumb, what's actually meant/cared about, not dumb at all.

Something something 5G towers - this one's the main fight against flat earthers on this scale. pretty fucking dumb.

Pizzagate - Podesta is a creep, aligned with creepy people, and Epstein/Maxwell have proven there is, at the very least, a notable pedo ring involving global elites and human trafficking, of which Bill Clinton definitely is more involved with than not (see: 27 times on Lolita Express, claims that yes he was on the island). much like the area 51 situation the specifics aren't as pertinent to the claims really being made here but due to a mix of recency bias and the location being a random pizza place, stands out more. but at least the underlying principle here has some truth to it. surface level, pretty dumb, what's meant/cared for, not dumb.

Climate change is a hoax - this one we've seen the goalpost move in our lifetime because it was so dumb. eventually it shifted to "yes there's climate change but how much is man-made?" and i mean, it's still an obvious "a lot" but this is a fair one to use because the initial claim really was that the entire thing was a hoax and only later modified. if you're going for the general spirit of it then that's what you've got and... i guess it's mostly out of ignorance to what we can do to the planet at a massive level? which isn't nearly as bad. initial claim, so dumb it forced a retraction to a not as dumb position.

Vaccines are bad, don't take them - there's some truth to them depending on what it is and where you are. i mean just two months ago the UN gave people polio through oral vaccines by accident. i don't think it's that uncommon to hear something along the lines of 'the only time i've gotten the flu is when i got the vaccine' either, which is a distrust on an unreliable vaccine. but unlike the other cases what's really meant here is actually worse since it's either tied back to mercury due to 1950s stuff, this idea that they need to be more spread out because the body can't handle all of them in the pace they're delivered (which at least sounds plausible on the surface), or autism. at the surface this one's got a bit more pause because there's something to it and you can easily find stuff but deeper down it's worse. biggest point to its favor on the dumb scale is that there at least is a now discredited doctor involved here. surface level makes it not as dumb, deeper in, pretty dumb. but this ties to...

COVID is a hoax, don't wear masks - this is recency bias on full blast. yeah it's dumb. obviously. there isn't even anything to defend this one besides claims that would work for any pandemic. but it's still not as dumb as 5G towers causing COVID and that's already an option.

JFK assassination was an inside job - this is straight up plausible.

edit - two ranking types. ranking based on the specific wording:
climate change >= flat earth > 5G towers >> COVID > pizzagate = area 51 > vaccines > 9/11 > moon landing > JFK

focusing on what's meant by these:
flat earth > 5G towers >> climate change >= COVID > vaccines > 9/11 > moon landing > pizzagate > area 51 > JFK


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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

The Nightmare Before Christmas

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.

as far as entertainment goes, hard to think of something that ingrained itself more.

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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.